Tora! Tora! Tora! A Japanese Multiplayer AAR

[Richard Nixon]

Introductory Post

War Plan Orange Multiplayer Group: Tuesday Game

7:00pm PDT
Patch 1.05
1938 Scenario
Current Date: 6-3-1943

Players

US
Currently: Jones
Formerly: Hugolin, Gogopher, Altaris

UK
Currently: Hugolin
Formerly: Jones

France
Currently: El Duck

Germany
Currently: Brother Lobo

Italy
Currently: Sabbath
Formerly: Raddattack

Soviet Union
Currently: Pedal

Japan
Currently: Me (Richard Nixon)

Nationalist China
Current: ColonelVert
Former: Greg
Former: Hugolin

What follows will be an AAR told from the perspective of Japan for a currently ongoing multiplayer game. The game began well before patch 1.07 was released so we have opted to continue with the game using 1.05 to avoid any stability issues. As for rules, we have agreed not to load up the save file of any foreign power unless the human player gives express permission. You are free to load up your own save but you cannot progress the game more than 24hours so as to enable you to get basic IC and resource flow information.

Since the game is currently being played I will have to heavily censor the information I disseminate in this AAR. There will be little to no discussion of current and future Japanese plans. The screenshots I provide will not disclose the locations and compositions of friendly or enemy forces. To provide screen shots I'll probably load up a land locked South American minor which should allow me to capture the political and diplomatic mapmodes without revealing anything important.

Happily, the game has progressed quite far so there is a lot of information that I deem obsolete and that has no value to my potential enemies. This should hopefully allow me to provide a rich AAR in the early years. As things progress towards the current date the reports I write will have to necessarily become more sketchy.

[zig_zac]

Cool. Japan is my favorite major, so good luck.

[Deus Eversor]

Oh coem one, pedal guy just had to make his name pedal?
damn...
subs

[Richard Nixon]

Strategic Overview of Japan in 1938

Before I begin the AAR Proper I thought I should first discuss the strengths and weaknesses of Japan in 1938 that informed my initial long range strategic decisions. Unfortunately, in MP Japan has many more weaknesses than strengths.

Soviet Union
If the game had taken place in one of the later scenarios, '39 or '41, the Soviet player would had many pressing issues to take care of before he considered an adventure in the Far East. Despite very low Soviet GDE in 1938 there is still plenty of time for an opportunistic Soviet player to launch a surprise attack on Japanese positions in Manchuria. In single player Japan may utterly strip Manchuria and Korea of defenses and use everything to attack China. Because you cannot count on Soviet neutrality with a human player- you either have to gamble with the defense along the Soviet border or place adequate defenses there. Gambling with Manchuria and Korea is a huge risk. Manchuria is valuable puppet who will steadily churn out troops over the course of many years. And there are a large number of ICs in Korea. If Japan were to lose Korea that would drop Japan to the status of Italy. But to properly garrison the border means that there will be far fewer troops to invade China. Japan needs every single division it can muster since a very large proportion of its land forces is comprised of immobile garrison units.

UK
In MP Japan also has to consider that the UK could choose to invite China into the Allies. A world war against France, the UK, China, and Australia/New Zealand is not something Japan is equipped to deal with in 1938. Help from Germany would be extremely limited since Germany needs to remain at peace in order to get some very goods events. An even bigger danger to Japan is that the Allies will join the war with China in conjunction with a declaration of war by the Soviet Union. This exact situation had actually occurred in a previous WPO game. The end result had been a severely truncated Japan. As a precaution against an Allied attack, Japan should also consider having at least one garrison unit per beach province on the Japanese home islands. It would be very unfortunate if the Home Islands were to be invaded in '38 or early '39 by the Royal Navy using Hong Kong as a forward base. Of course, to guard against this eventuality means further reducing the forces I have available to deploy against China.

United States of America
In real life during the 1930s, up until Representative Carl Vinson's farsighted Two Ocean Navy Act passed in July 1940, the expansion of the U.S. Navy was not all that it could be. The reasons for this are too complicated to go into now, but suffice it to say that even though the United States certainly had the capacity to build a world class navy, the development of such a navy stagnated somewhat due to political and domestic complications. When the Japanese hit Pearl Harbor in 1941, even though they didn't manage to hit any carriers, it dealt a devastating blow to the U.S. Pacific Fleet.

Unfortunately, even though in AoD the U.S. in somewhat constrained by peacetime modifiers, is is still not as constrained as it was in real life. Right from the start the US is able to build the big and bad ships that the real life penny pinching Congress only belatedly realized it needed. Japan's difficulty in this regard is compounded by gameplay mechanics. To make it possible to build a navy very quickly I get the impression the the developers of HoI2 and later AoD decreased the time it took to build ships by 2 or maybe even 3 while rising the IC cost by the same amount. In this manner the IC day cost is kept the same but ships can be completed much faster than they ever could have be in real life. But this has dire consequences for an IC poor nation like Japan. To build a battleship or carrier Japan needs to to plunk down 8 or 9 ICs for a ship that is completed in a year instead of 2 or 3 ICs that is completed in three years. Producing a ship in record time doesn't help Japan very much since it is a monumental struggle to scrounge up the upfront cost for such a ship. It is comparatively much more difficult for Japan who only has 126 ICs in 1938 to find enough industrial capacity to fund any naval builds, let alone adequate naval builds.

For example, assuming Japan moves 1 towards hawk lobby on the first day in 1938 it takes 14.7 ICs to build 2 level IV CVs. That's over 10% of Japan's entire economy! When you factor in modern screens, and Yamato class ships the picture becomes much more bleak. And it is almost required for Japan to place a heavy emphasis on its army, because of the previously mentioned difficulties that could arise with the SU and the UK. And Japan has to devote a hefty percentage of its economy to producing supplies for an already large and obsolete army (And 36% of that army is immobile garrison units good only for border and beach defense). And Japan also has to generate enough cash to import energy, steel, oil, and rare materials. The problems Japan has building naval units seems inversely proportional to the effortless ease with which the United States has in building a world class navy in record time. It isn't so bad right at the start but the United States will quickly receive their Gearing for War events and things will get progressively get more lopsided.

In the game Japan doesn't really have the option to pull off a Pearl Harbor style raid. The only naval base I have within range is Kwajelein. And it is doubtful that a real human player would be caught napped like the United States was in real life. The Pearl Harbor event is actually quite bad for Japan since it provides the United States with a number of intervention and hawk moves. To the best of my memory it doesn't remove any USA ships. So if Japan chooses the event not only does it make the United States more powerful but the U.S. Navy is still at full strength.

In real life the diplomatic moves made by the United States was constrained by isolationism. To an extent that is true in the game. But in the game nothing is stopping the United states (or any other allied power for that matter) from setting up resource and supply convoys to China almost from the start. The real lend-lease to China was a very gradual process. Even in 1941 prior to the war I don't think massive shipments of goods and resources went to China. And when the war commenced for the United States it took quite a while to set up the routes needed to deploy the lend lease equipment to China. And you have to factor in the corruption and mismanagement by Nationalist Chinese forces. Significant infusions of supplies and resources right at the start have the potential to make China a much more formidable adversary than they were in real life. This in turn necessitates a large land investment by Japan.

And we haven't even touched on the lend-lease events yet. These accursed events are a disaster for Japan. As far as I can tell there appears to be no limit to the lend lease events the United States can send to China. Not only do these events give China supplies and resources but they boost the ICs of Chongqing province. Since these events seem limitless, and since the Allies can pump China full of resources to fund their expanded industries, China in the hands of a capable human player has the potential to become a colossus with more ICs than Japan.

China

At the start in 1938 China was controlled by Hugolin (who has since switched to the United states after the previous two U.S. players dropped out). This was bad for me since Hugo had also played China in the last game. He is a very capable player who has had a lot of time to perfect China's combat strategies. I was very skeptical that Japan could land a knockout blow against China right from the start. For one things, China's landscape isn't very conducive to sweeping lightning encirclements. And I couldn't count on Hugo making any egregious errors that would hand be victory on a silver platter, either. Conquering China, or mauling it badly enough to remove it as a threat to me was clearly going to be a multiyear effort.

I've already mentioned the lend-lease events the U.S. could send to China, along with resource and supply convoys. But China also has another massive, innate advantage, thanks to game mechanics. In AoD, excess manpower in the pool not deployed to units generates excess cash. This is to simulate the economic value of men working in industry and business rather than cooling their heels in army barracks. By and large I think this is a great feature. But when applied to China that game feature gives the Nationalist Chinese advantages they manifestly did not possess in real life. Because of their phenomenal MP generation rate and their 2000 MP in the pool right at the start, China has the ability to set Consumer Goods to zero and fund their tech teams at 100% and still have a bit left over. And this advantage will only accrue with time. No matter how many losses I inflict on China their MP reserve pool just grows and grows and grows. In very short order Chang Kai Shek and his Nationalist are richer than Croesus, Kublai khan, and Howard Hughes combined.

To make this feature more realistic I've always thought they should use an equation that goes something like this: MP Pool x ICs x Average level of infrastructure in national provinces= Excess $$ Generated by Reserve Manpower.

If that equation or something similar were employed it would make it more realistic for China, a nation with tons of MP, but whose GDP was probably dwarfed by the other industrial powers. Well, no use crying over spilled milk. I deal with the game engine as it is, not as I wish it were designed.

My nightmare as Japan was for the United States and China to set up a bilateral trade in which the United States would ship resources and supplies to China and China would ship money to the United States. Since China can already set their CG at zero, supplies from the U.S. meant that China could potentially set their supply slider to zero as well and place every IC they had into producing land units. Because China can become so rich, such a trade also mean they would be shipping dozens of units of money to the United States. With all of this excess money the United States could have gotten around their high isolation slider setting and put more ICs into producing a vast battlefleet.

Summary
I hope I have explained the many and grievous potential threats that beset Japan right from the start. In the next updates I will explain how I set about defusing these problems and how I tried to combat the formation hostile coalitions direct at Japan.

[Richard Nixon]

Because of retooling times, the length of research time, and Japan's paucity of tech slots, my opening research and production would likely dictate my long range strategy. Japan has to do the most it can with what little she has. Therefore, before the first session began I sketched out my strategy. I was working on the assumption that the United States would be dumping supplies into China via convoy and that China would be able to use all of their ICs for production.

The two main goals I developed at the start were:

1. Occupy the Chinese coast to block convoys from the United States
2. Reduce China's ICs through strategic bombing so they can no longer produce any units.

To this end my initial production queue was rather heavily committed to land and air with a minimal investment in the navy. Research slots were similarly organized.

The exact type of land and air units I was going to produce was quite a quandary for me. I seriously considered investing in armor. China was going to have a lot of militia and those things have no hard attack at all. Armor would tear through them like tinfoil, despite the almost universally terrible terrain in China. But, much to my sorrow, armor is just too expensive for Japan to afford, not just in terms of ICs, but because it would also add another line of research I'd have to keep up with. I settled for infantry, marines, and a short run of mountain units.

I was equally torn over what sort of airforce I was going to build. China lacks the capability to counter almost any sort of enemy air campaign. If I built bombers I could rest assured that Chinese airspace would not be heavily contested. For my strategic bombing campaign, Strategic bombers, would naturally enough be the most helpful unit. In single player tests I had conducted Japan's lvl I and II TACS made utterly no impact during strategic bombing runs.

But there were problems with building strategic bombers. Like armor, they're very expensive and Japan doesn't have many ICs to spare. Researching STRATS meant that I'd also have to make some commitment to research strategic bombing doctrines. Japan only has 6 tech slots so researching additional tech trees is a very heavy burden. In the 1938 scenario Japan starts with a handful of TACs but zero STRATS. Japan also lacks the technology to built STRATS right from the start. There would be a very long delay while I researched the lvl I STRAT technology, started a production line and waited for the cumbersome retooling time to pay off.

I decided that strategic bombers were simply a bridge too far. Modern TACs could do an adequate job in China even if they were not specifically designed with strategic bombing in mind. I also noted that lvl IV TACs have the same naval attack values as lvl I NAVs. That would be a huge boon to Japan later in the game thanks to my minimal naval builds right at the start.

Now that I had decided upon my initial strategy all that was left was to see if it would hold up since the battle plan is frequently the first casualty in war.

[zig_zac]

Infantry 36’ has 1 point of HA, just like regular militia. Infantry 39’ has 2 points (does China have it yet?) Why should infantry be better against armor, than militia? Do I miss something?
And second thing – you said Hagolin took control over USA. Is it in 1938? If yes you should be able to wreck China, without the need of strategic bombing. It’s only AI

[Richard Nixon]

I don't know the exact game mechanics with regards to militia but in some of my SP games I've noticed tanks ripping through militia like they weren't even there. I thought the was a good indication of how it would play out in MP as well if I had decided to scrimp and save in order to field a handful of armor. Or maybe militia are just universally terrible against everything? That could certainly be it as well.

I've redone the first post so the player listing is hopefully more clear. In games where there is no player for China the game is editied to give the U.S. player Military Control over the Chinese factions so it won't be so easy for Japan to steamroll China and to give the U.S. player something to do besides waiting for 2 or 3 years until he can join the war. Even though the U.S. controls the military forces there's not much he can do about production and reinforcements so Japan still probably has an advantage. In the current game Hugolin was the Chinese player right from the start in 1938 so there was no need for U.S. MC. I've found him to be a generally very capable player. In addition, he controlled China in the last game so he alreay had a feel for the country and had perfected the Chinese strategy.

That is why I tried to pay more than cursory attention to my initial strategy. I knew China was going to be a long drawn out brawl when it was controlled by a competent and experienced human player.

[Richard Nixon]

Cool. Japan is my favorite major, so good luck.

Thanks! There's certainly been quite a number of ups and downs- remember it is already 1942. I've experienced many glories and sorrows over the course of the game. I hope my AAR will end up being as interesting to read as it was for me when I was playing through it.

[Storm501]

MP AARs are my favorite, so I'll be following.


Tank Div with 30% softness.

-39 inf: 12 x 0.3 + 2 = Average 6 hits

-36 inf: 10 x 0.3 + 1 = Average 4 hits

Militia: 2 x 0.3 + 1 = Average 1.6 hits

That's how it's calculated.


Also militia has 8 DEF when on defensive, 1 DEF (toughness) on offense. So they easily take plenty of org/str damage when attacking.

[zig_zac]

@Storm501
Of course Inf is just stronger. But look at the proportions: Milita SA:HA 2:1
Inf 36' SA:HA 10:1
It's almost like militia is specifically destined to fight tanks - has hard attack half as big as soft attack

Also shouldn't it be like this: Inf 36' 10*0.3 + 1*0.7 = 3.7 attacks
Militia 2*0.3 + 1*0.7 = 1.3 attacks, and so on?

[Richard Nixon]

RESOURCES

Even though I thought I had studied Japan's starting position in depth I realized in the first session that I had failed to take proper account of Japan's resource shortages. Japan has a shortfall in every resource category. I knew, going into the game, my resources and economy was going to be tight- I just hadn't realized how tight.

Energy could be purchased from Germany. Metal could be shipped in from various South American countries, as could oil. That left rare materials. Normally, in single player, these could be obtained from the United States.

In this particular MP game, however, the U.S. player was not kindly disposed to selling me rares. It has been quite a long time since those first early sessions so I cannot recall the exact circumstances but I believe that the United States either cancelled all of Japan's initial trades that were already ongoing when the scenario started, or they simply refused to sell me any more resources.

In any case I recall being very upset about Japan's rare materials shortage. Without the United States Japan would have to get her rares from the world market. MP is again different from SP. In SP I'd probably be able to manage adequately with regards to the rare situation. But in MP there was also an Italian and German player who had been put under economic embargo by the Western Democracies and the Soviet Union. Japan found itself bidding against friendly Axis powers. The rare maket in AI controlled minors dried up astonishingly quickly.

The danger this represented to Japan cannot be overstated. Germany has the technology and the ICs to partially make up for their shortfall by building Oil and Rare synth plants. Japan's overstressed industries simply cannot afford that. I was hemorrhaging rare materials at such a frightful rate that I considered going to war with the Netherlands in 1938 in order to seize the Dutch East Indies.

Two factors stayed my hand.

1) Germany can get a lot of their rares from the Dutch. Going to war against the Dutch to seize the DEI would be like robbing Peter to pay Paul. Japan might profit from such a war but it would leave the leader of the Axis faction much weaker. Such a war, therefore, could be counter productive.

2) Even if I was willing to place my interests ahead of Germany's, where was I going to get the forces to invade the DEI? Every unit I had was already accounted for. I believed that the AI had unlimited range for their ships which meant I would have to garrison the beaches of the resource rich islands. I simply didn't have enough units to attack China, guard Manchuria and the Home Islands, while at the same time subjugating the DEI.

I eventually devised a plan that I thought would help me deal with my rare shortfall. There were significant risks in employing that particular strategy but my back was against the wall. And there was no way to tell whether my plan would work right away. It would only bear fruit sometime in 1939 or later, so I'll leave the details of the arrangement for future updates when they become relevant.

INDUSTRY

Japan's economy was mainly divided between Consumer Goods, Supplies, and Production. I had a handful of ICs in reinforcements, almost nothing in repairs, and actually nothing in upgrades.

As I mentioned before, the bulk of my production was tied up in land units. But I also started a run of lvl II TACS, a 1x99 run of airbases, and a run of infrastructure in Tokyo (25 ICs, 13 rares, 23 energy, 17 metal, and it was a plains province to boot) at regular speed.

Of course, if my rare situation deteriorated this generous production run would have to be cut to the bone. My preference, when I am running out of resources, is to place ICs into "empty" production, usually in the repair slider. For example, lets say the repair slider only needs 2ICs and I would actually place 12 ICs there. That way my economy wouldn't use all the resources that it would at full blast. I do this because I dislike having my IC level fluctuate wildly as sections of the economy blink on and off like Christmas lights. By doing this I can avoid having serial build bonuses wiped out.

MILITARY REORGANIZATION AND DEFENSE

All the garrisons were recalled form the far flung Pacific islands and brought closer to home. This included Truk, which has a lvl 10 naval base. I would have liked to have kept some defenses there but I was already stretched to the limit.

A garrison or 1918 infantry was allocated to each beach province in Japan, except for Tokyo which received two.

Similar defenses were allocated to the Russian/Mongolian border in Mengkukuo, Manchuria, and Korea. Most of these units were infantry/militia. If Russia attacked I didn't want garrisons there that would disband upon retreat. The forces would be a mixture of Japanese, and Japanese puppet troops. When/if my puppets produced more units they would also beef up the defenses along those borders.

The remaining garrison units in my possession would guard the beaches on what I like to call my Outer Ring of defenses. This area includes the islands closest to Japan, and the beaches on the Asian mainland. This will eventually include the beaches I conquer from China.

Let me step aside and briefly explain my philosophy of beach defenses. On the surface it might appear that my initial beach defenses were rather extravagant. I disagree. Since I did not know the intentions of the UK, I thought I had to assume there was a good possibility that the Allies could invite China into their alliance. The seas around Japan and China would then become a battleground.

A level I militia unit at 1 strength can successfully invade an undefended beach. I was apprehensive that if the UK did attack Japan it could land a fast strike force of armor and motorized behind my lines on undefended Chinese beaches and then rush inland to meet the Chinese, cutting off a large segment of my army while the Royal Navy prevented me from sending transports to extricate my trapped armies.

By guarding my beaches it ensures that a potential foe will have to employ a military force amounting to more than Gomer Pyle. A beach defense, even one consisting of a single unit, forces potential enemies to undertake a far more substantial operation.

First, if the UK did attack, I hoped my beach defenses would be able to hold ( I placed all of them on VoV), until the Combined Fleet sortied to disrupt the enemy transports.

Second, I hoped that my enemies would be smart enough to scout my beaches before they decided to declare war. If they had done so I hope they would have realized "Hey, this guy is defending ALL of his beaches. No point in attacking him!" I hoped that by providing adequate defenses I could actually deter a conflict before it had even started. The same rationale applied to the defenses I was assembling in Manchuria. If the Soviet or British player saw that they couldn't just march in unopposed and exploit any huge gaps in my lines, then it might force them to reconsider attacking me at all.

The exact composition of my fleets is still classified. Suffice it to say that I engaged in a major reorganization of my naval tasks forces at the start of the first session.

I can tell you that I created a number of small fleets, centered around a single heavy cruiser. I placed these fleets on permanent patrol in single sea provinces off the Chinese coast. Their mission was to sink any and all convoys.

In the next update I will (finally!) get around to describing my initial offensive operations.

China Blockade and Outer Defenses

[Richard Nixon]

There should be a red X on jeju island between Korea and Japan as well, to denote the beach garrison.

[zig_zac]

In the 11th post the same text appears twice.

I like the way it is written, with every detail. Can't wait to the actual fight.

[Richard Nixon]

September 1938 to November 1938

POLITICS

Japan used its first slider move to take a step in the direction of Hawk Lobby.

A Man of the People was installed as Security Minister. The Chief of Staff position was given to Kanichiro Tashiro who boosts organization regeneration by 20%. A Guns and Butter proponent was given the position of Chief of the Army. All of Japan's other ministers were retained.

INITIAL OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS

Although I viewed the defensive measures I implemented as a vital necessity there was no denying that they had weakened Japan's offensive capabilities. In singleplayer it is easy to take Japan's entire army and deploy it against China, allowing you to finish off the war in very short order. This was beyond my ability in Multiplayer.

Due to the extensive precautions I had taken against a surprise attack I only had enough units to launch offensives on a very small part of the entire front. This would hopefully change as new land units came off the assembly lines in enough numbers to swamp China. But that was far off in the future.

At the start I had to decide where my initial blow would fall. Looking at the map I noted that the North and Center of China were inhospitable to offensive operations. For one thing, Mao and his Communists had a formidable army defending the mountains. Alone amongst the Chinese factions, Mao has a semi-decent army, with a high percentage of mountain and infantry units. In addition, nearby, there was a belt of three Chinese provinces that contained zero infrastructure. If China choose to make to make those provinces a battleground it would be a disaster for the organization of my army.

These factors forced me to turn my attention away from the North. It seemed to me that the best course of action would be to close off the Southern and Southeastern Chinese coasts. This would prevent the Allies from shipping in supplies and resources.

At the start I began to shift units in the North and Center towards the South. I was careful, though, to leave enough forces in the North to ward off an attack by Mao. My forces in the South went on an immediate offensive. Once my fleet was reorganized I began to ship in units from Japan and Taiwan and deployed them to the Southeastern Front.

Almost all of my initial offensives went off well. But this was mostly due to China's initial strategy. Hugo, the Chinese player realized that there was a danger that his forces in the Southeast would get cut off. His initial moves mirrored mine. His units in the North and Center started to dig in, while in the Southeast he started to retreat. It seemed clear to me that Hugo was going to shorten his lines and take up defensive positions along the mountains.

I very much wanted to encircle and destroy the Chinese units that Hugo had retreated. The terrain of China is not conducive to blitzkrieg, however, and most of the enemy units escaped.

I also took the opportunity to rebase my aircraft to mainland Asia and have them start to reorg so my airpower would be ready to help once my main force encounter Hugo's main defensive lines.

Strategy:



As I said everything went well at first but as soon as encountered Hugo's main force the advance bogged down, and I even lost some battles against entrenched Chinese forces. These were not small battles, either. They lasted much longer than a week and many troops (mostly Chinese) died during the Japanese attacks.

Battles:



Sites of Japanese Defeats:



Even though I suffered comparatively few losses these battles ground up my organization which forced me to stop and reorganize.

Losses:



Losses Inflicted:




INTERNATIONAL NEWS

The world does not revolve around my little corner of Asia. Leaders in the United States, the UK, and France were shocked when Italy released Ethiopia as a puppet state.

Even more shocking was when the Soviet Union declared war on Turkey. Although I'm sure this move made Germany very nervous Japan was ambivalent. Although in theory this would weaken the Axis I was secretly relived to see the Soviets occupied on the other side of the globe. With their terrible GDE the Soviets can't fight two wars at once, and I knew that Japan would probably be safe from any Soviet aggression until Russian finished off the Turk.


November 1938 to December 1938

STATIC WARFARE

The front lines in China have effectively solidified. Ganzhou is the site of a major battle currently ongoing between China and Japan. China has 19 militia committed to the defense while Japan has 14 infantry. In theory I should have a large advantage due to quality and complete control over the air but I attacked before my forces had completely reorganized. The Chinese militia were entrenched. All of Hugo's forces are using VoV, and when a militia unit became too weak and disorganized to fight he shifted it out and brought in fresh forces from outside, drawing the battle out even longer and grinding my organization down even further.

Loss Statistics:



As you can see, even though the front had not advanced, the war continued. China was defending their territory by piling bodies on bodies.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

The Soviets made rapid progress in Turkey.

The biggest news however was the continuing foreign adventures of Italy. Perhaps in a game of one-upmanship, to show Stalin who was the most bellicose dictator of them all, Mussolini attacked both Greece and Bulgaria. Italy also released Libya as a puppet.

[zig_zac]

It seems everything is going fine.

[Storm501]

It's almost like militia is specifically destined to fight tanks - has hard attack half as big as soft attack

True, I think boosting militia by giving it a hard attack was a poor choice. Something else should have been done... :/

Also shouldn't it be like this: Inf 36' 10*0.3 + 1*0.7 = 3.7 attacks
Militia 2*0.3 + 1*0.7 = 1.3 attacks, and so on?

From those old Blue emu threads on combat mechanics, I am quite sure hard attack is just an attack that isn't affected by softness at all. But of course I could be wrong.


Suprising how much freedom the Soviets and Italians have with their conquests, while the rest of Europe is still locked in the Checkoslovakian conflict.

[Richard Nixon]

Dec '38- Jan '39

The battle for Ganzhou was fierce, lasting one day short of an entire month. China employed their patented strategy of trading manpower for organization. Japanese land and air units scythed through the Chinese militia units defending the province. But whenever an enemy unit reached the breaking point it was withdrawn from combat and immediately replaced by an equal or greater number of fresh units. I was able to inflict grievous losses on the enemy for comparatively miniscule mp losses to my units.





These pictures do not tell the entire tale. Although my units emerged victorious and relatively intact I lost a tremendous amount of organization. There was no question of being able to exploit my victory and attack more provinces. My units were too worn out to fight another battle so I had to hunker down and reorg. Because China contains atrocious infrastructure the process of reorging takes even longer.



In Europe, the Soviets concluded their war with Turkey. Instead of total annexation, Stalin opted to puppet Turkey.

Italy's war against Bulgaria continued. The Italian war effort was apparently hindered by the poor terrain in Bulgaria and Greek partisans. Italy also released Somalia as a puppet and which joined Ethiopia and Libya in Mussolini's growing constellation of satellite states.

January 1939- March 1939

In one of my earlier posts I stated:

I eventually devised a plan that I thought would help me deal with my rare shortfall. There were significant risks in employing that particular strategy but my back was against the wall. And there was no way to tell whether my plan would work right away. It would only bear fruit sometime in 1939 or later, so I'll leave the details of the arrangement for future updates when they become relevant.

The time has come to reveal the fruits of my machinations:





Yes, Japan and its puppet states Manchukuo, Mengkukuo joined the Comintern. Nationalist China and its warlord allies are now also at war with Russia, Turkey, Mongolia, and Tanu Tuva.

There was also an attempted on my part to get Siam as an ally as well. I actually managed to get them in my alliance but the event turning them into a puppet didn't fire so they didn't join the Comintern since they were not a puppet. They're at war with China as well, but since I can't control their military Siam is basically useless.

When I realized that I was going to have resource problems I had to act ruthlessly. Very early on I initiated a correspondence with the Soviet player to feel him out. My primary objective was to gain resources for Japan. Here is a copy of the first PM I sent to him:

Moshi, Moshi, Comrade Stalin-sama!

Warm and sincere greeting from the Land of the Rising Sun! I come bearing offers and proposals that I hope you will find most pleasing.

“The time has come," the Walrus said,
"To talk of many things:
Of shoes--and ships--and sealing-wax--
Of cabbages--and kings--
And why the sea is boiling hot--
And whether pigs have wings."

A pivotal moment has arrived in world affairs. The time has come to write history with lightning.

Through close collaboration the Soviet Union and the Empire of Japan can overturn the existing world order and lay the foundations of joint hegemony over Asia, Europe, the Pacific and the Atlantic.

Allow me to speak frankly so that I may address and lay to rest the initial difficulties that may stand in the way of Soviet-Japanese harmony.

The Soviet Union is naturally concerned with the ongoing Sino-Japanese struggle. If Japan were to triumph quickly and totally in China there might be cause for concern in Moscow. Japan, with the resources of China, would be a formidable adversary for the Soviet Union.

However, there is another, far graver, danger to the Soviet Union, a danger that is seldom given the consideration it warrants: the total victory of the Chinese and the Allies over Japan.

Consider for a moment: Japan is both a land and naval power. I cannot neglect either sphere without risking catastrophe. Japan has a modest reserve of MP. Japan is resource poor and needs to expand into the Pacific and perhaps India just to fuel the economy. Japan would be illserved by using its limited resources to conquer wholly empty Siberian wastelands.

Contrast this with China, a nation that can only and ever be a land power. China will never waste a single IC on ships or aircraft. And China has the endless MP to build an army equal in size to the Soviet Red Army. A unified China has almost as many IC’s as Japan and can eventually far eclipse the Japanese economy when US lend-lease events are added to the picture. I shudder to imagine China should they ever acquire the ICs of Manchuria and Korea as well. And China’s economy, thanks to the largess of the UK and the US, will never be hampered by resource constraints.

Where would China turn if the threat of Japan were to disappear? Nationalist China will not be kindly disposed to your potential ally, Communist China. It is also not too hard to imagine the endless Chinese hordes turning against the Soviet Union. You may find this scenario fanciful. But there is one thing that is certain: at the end of the game all of the VP provinces of China will be added to the Allies.

The Soviet Union may or may not defeat Germany. But even if the Soviets defeat Germany, the Allies will defeat the Soviet Union once Nationalist China is added to the final calculations. If the Allies, in their beneficence and might, decide to spare the Soviet Union and focus on Germany, you still lose. If Japan is defeated the Allies can use China’s massive army in any way they please. If the Allies make the best use of China’s army, who do you think will be in Paris, Berlin, Warsaw, Belgrade, Budapest first? You? Or the innumerable units of the combined UK/US/Chinese army?

Allow me, the Emperor of Japan to offer an alternative to this rather disagreeable outcome.

Instead of China tipping the scales in favor of the Allies against the Soviet Union, what if Japan were to tip the scales in favor of the Comintern against the Allies?

Here is my proposal:

To give the Soviet Union peace of mind in the Far East I will commit to maintaining the balance of power in Asia between the Soviets and Japan.

1) I am skeptical that Japan can finish off China before the UK/US comes to its aid and stalls my offensives. If, as I expect, China and Japan fight each other to a standstill, all the better for Stalin. You won’t have much to worry about a surprise attack from me if half my army is bogged down.

2) In the unlikely event that I do manage to defeat Nationalist China, I propose to divide China between my puppet state and the Chinese Communists. My puppet state will take about 2/3s of Chinese territory while Comrade Mao can have the other 1/3 in the former territory of Xibei San Ma and Sinkiang. This would give the SU a large and mountainous bulwark and once again provide security if you still suspect Japan is going to attack you.

If we can come to an arrangement this would allow me to run wild in the Pacific and maybe even India/Australia. I’ll seize all the VPs and resources I can. At some later date, whenever it would be best for you, I could join the Comintern. This would add all Japan’s VPs to the final tally. An alliance with Japan also offers other enormous advantages.

In the late game, one huge edge the Allies have over the SU is the sheer mass of naval tonnage at their disposal. Without a first class navy the Soviet Union’s power projection is limited. You can attack Europe and important parts of the British Empire but on your own you can never threaten the heart and vitals of the Allies. With naval superiority the Allies have the ability to carry the fight to you. If Japan is in your corner then you get a splendid navy at your beck and call.

The Allies cannot hope to compete against our combined industrial and territorial might. The Allies might well surrender in the face of these hopeless odds. And if they didn’t we could simply crush them.

In return for the abundance of advantages and help I have offered and for maintaining the balance of power in Asia, I would like Japan to be able to join the Comintern by 1942 or 1943, or by the time you felt comfortable with being at war with the Allies.

I also request that in the interim the Soviet Union provide Japan with the resources it needs to fund its economy. Mostly rare materials. But oil is also important so I can expand my fleet and have any hope of operating it for extended periods when war comes to the Pacific. I’d also appreciate some small amounts of energy and metal. Naturally, I’d like all of this gratis, but I’d be willing to pay a fair price in either money or supplies for access to your resource market.

I hope my proposals meet with approval of the Great Stalin-sama.

Sincerely,

Richard Nixon
Mikado

As you can see form my letter I only envisaged an alliance with the Soviet Union at a much later date. My primary goals in sending the letter was to secure my rare material supply and to drive a wedge between the Soviet and Chinese player in the hopes that Stalin wouldn't continually send Operation Zet support to China.

The response I received from the Soviet Player was much more enthusiastic than I anticipated. Pedal, the Soviet player wanted an alliance very soon, not in '42 or '43. In fact, as a precondition for working together the Soviet player insisted on an early '39 alliance.

Well, I was entirely opposed to that either although I had reservations. I pointed out to the SU that as soon as we joined forces it would paint a huge target on our heads. Suddenly Germany and Italy would appear to be the lesser of two evils compared with SU-Japan-China (which was expected to fall in short order). I thought it might be to our mutual advantage to maintain a pretence in the Far East until the Allies and Axis were deeply involved in war.

The Soviet player was insistent, however, that if I wanted resources I'd have to commit to an early alliance. What could I do? The Soviet Union had rare materials and was the only human nation willing to trade with Japan. I was over a barrel so I assented to the Soviet requests.

As a gesture of good faith, the Soviet Union began to supply me with enough rares and oil to meet my shortfalls, even before we were formerly allied.

I guess I am a naturally suspicious person so up until the moment that we allied I was worried that the Soviets were just trying to lull me into a false sense of security so I would denude the Manchurian border of troops and which would then be overrun by a Soviet surprise attack. So until Japan was actually accepted into the Comintern I still kept my defenses in place in Manchuria.

In the next update, I'll discuss the Chinese, Axis, and Allied response to the Soviet-Japanese allinace.

[Deus Eversor]

JUST WTF O.O
brtish joining up with germany is more plausible!
THIS IS EWUL

[zig_zac]

Nah, it's great. I love to see Japan having an ally that actually can help. Of course the most plausible is Japan going to war against everybody around, because it happened - but what fun is repeating that mistake?
And allies are still potentially stronger.
By the way, Nazi Germany were briefly cooperating with USSR, their greatest ideological enemy, out of pure calculation. The ideological difference between Japan and Soviets was not half as large.
Edit:
Not to say about an alliance between Western nations and USSR - because it was actual alliance, not Comintern and Allies, like in game. It was also ideologically inplausible, right?

[Timmie0307]

Indeed, herr Bismarck would be proud he also envisaged that cooperation would be purely on these circumstances. The Allies and Comintern alliance against Germany was purely a military cooperation (albeit very bad i.e. only grand strategy cooperation that they would attack and defeat Germany not even letting each others armies into the repective zones etc.) and the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was something like this short of an alliance (the thing is the whole HoI system can't cope with all the diplomatic nuances, which would be too much for human players as well so nice solution this one )

I like to see how this plays out, I hope that Japan can now conquer China more easily and thwart any Allied attempt in retaking this...

Tim