Couple of thoughts.
First on AA fire from passed over provinces. Bomber formations crossing the flak belts along the coast were fired upon going and coming. This was shown in the actual wartime AARs filed. It is true that flak downed few planes but it damaged a lot. During the actual raids most of the planes that were shot down were downed by the interceptors and most of the bombers that returned damaged were damaged by flak.
Edit: The ability to bypass flak was limited to a large extent by the fact that flying extra miles to avoid flak took extra fuel at the expense of bomb load. A B-17 could deliver a 17,000 LB bombload to targets close to the coast but only 3,000 LB to Berlin.
Second, most wartime intelligence was inaccurate to some degree. Perhaps the accuracy of the intelligence for each area of information is greater the more agents there are in that country and maybe a bonus if that area is the focus. There should be some level of intel on all countries you are not at war with since diplomatic posts function partly for intel gathering. The author of the book "Spy in the US" pointed out that all military attache's are, by definition, spies.
First on AA fire from passed over provinces. Bomber formations crossing the flak belts along the coast were fired upon going and coming. This was shown in the actual wartime AARs filed. It is true that flak downed few planes but it damaged a lot. During the actual raids most of the planes that were shot down were downed by the interceptors and most of the bombers that returned damaged were damaged by flak.
Edit: The ability to bypass flak was limited to a large extent by the fact that flying extra miles to avoid flak took extra fuel at the expense of bomb load. A B-17 could deliver a 17,000 LB bombload to targets close to the coast but only 3,000 LB to Berlin.
Second, most wartime intelligence was inaccurate to some degree. Perhaps the accuracy of the intelligence for each area of information is greater the more agents there are in that country and maybe a bonus if that area is the focus. There should be some level of intel on all countries you are not at war with since diplomatic posts function partly for intel gathering. The author of the book "Spy in the US" pointed out that all military attache's are, by definition, spies.