For briefers, this will be an HPP AAR (Historical Plausibility Project mod), version 1.8.1 for Semper Fi. It’s the same version as my previous AAR Kriegsgefahr, so I won’t be as detailed describing the differences between the mod and vanilla HOI or SF as I was in the other one. Difficulty will be Normal.
Here’s the world I’ll be dealing with. In January 1936, Italy had recently invaded Ethiopia, and to be honest more European powers were probably looking at Italy as an aggressive nation that might need to be dealt with than were looking at Germany. But that’s not entirely true – Ethiopia was a minor conquest not on the European continent, and so didn’t register very high as a sign of aggression (many major powers of Europe had engaged in aggressive colonization in decades previous). And even in 1936 it was relatively obvious that Hitler was a different breed of dictator, and some recognized him at least as a potential threat. Many probably didn’t give him enough credit and figured he would be gone soon.
Historically, Benito Mussolini was one of those people. Hitler’s National Socialism was a weird cousin to Italy’s Fascism, full of racialism and lacking any sense of humor.
Fortunately for Italy, many of the governments of Europe had been transformed into the image of Fascism, not of National Socialism. If the game can be played correctly, much of southern Europe, and perhaps western and central Europe, could be brought into alignment with an anti-German, anti-aggression alliance.
Also good is that Italy’s relations with France are not dead. Mussolini, having been around since 1922, was one of the original signatories to the Locarno Treaties, and so he represented a line of continuity with the original treaties against German aggression. Ironically, he held most of the continuity himself, other heads of government around Europe – the other signatory powers – did not have the same leadership, and in fact some had been replaced by those who might be inclined to allow Germany to resist and break free of at least some of the bonds of the Versailles Treaty. Mussolini’s job would be to prevent that from happening, by revitalizing the Locarno understandings.
Italy was, in 1936, a regional power capable of holding her own on the continent, and projecting its power into Africa to a degree. With 63 Infantry brigades, it was certainly not an impotent power. At that time it had no organized armored units, though Italy had retained a small contingent of light tanks since the First World War. With 6 Cavalry brigades and an Armored Car brigade (essentially a faster, better protected, and more heavily armed equivalent), it had a slight ability to scout and infiltrate. Three brigades of Motorized Infantry was insufficient to constitute a “mobile offensive capability”, but it was a starting place. Nearly 10 divisions worth of Militia (organized in probably 15 divisions, not all full strength) rounded out her capability – these were useful on defense, and in Ethiopia, where they were stronger than the native Infantry.
In terms of air power, Light Fighters and Medium Bombers (the HPP equivalent of Interceptors and Tactical Bombers) were the majority of Italy’s air arm, with some Naval Bombers too, which were like poor-man’s medium bombers – marginally useful except at sea, but better than nothing.
We would need to improve both, air and land strength, in order to capably oppose Germany. Obviously, a good set of allies could make up for a shortage of land or air power.
The one real advantage Italy had was its 10 brigades of Mountain troops, which could come quite in handy when you considered that any conflict between Germany and Italy would surely be fought out first in the mountains of either northern Italy or Austria. These had serious advantages defending in mountainous terrain, and had special advantages while attacking into mountains. There wasn’t anything else that could really be better in this first frontier.
The HPP mod uses “doctrines” to lay out certain hard-coded directions of emphasis through the tech tree. Considering Italy’s advantages and liabilities, it made the most sense for her to choose Grand Battle Plan for Operational Doctrine, Combined Arms for Tank Doctrine, and Infiltration for Infantry Doctrine.
The “Firepower Foci” made no sense for a country without a lot of IC for building new units, and without a significant armored force (or the capability to realistically build one), the Blitzkrieg/Schwerpunkt doctrines made little sense. Italy’s Manpower limitations, especially compared to Germany’s, were insufficient for a “Shock” focus.
At 79 IC, Italy just wasn’t an industrial nation, and had little hope of becoming one. Any “IC whoring” strategy would leave us little improved by 1938 and without any of the military units we would need to fill holes in our strategic military situation. We’d improve IC slowly, gradually, and would hopefully be able to reach the 100 IC threshold (important in HPP for mobilization purposes) in time for it to be useful. Our other IC would go into upgrades and new military units.
We wanted at least one division of Light Armor to provide a little extra punch when and where it was needed. Armor would be especially helpful once (read: if!) Italy broke out of the mountains and into the forests and plains of Germany. Until then, there were other priorities. Note that I have two units of Convoy Transports building – note the “0 (+10)” designation in the Available Transports section for why. Italy would need to build stockpiles, as this might be a long war (unless I’m really lucky), and I couldn’t do that without extra Convoys – they’ll be done by March, leaving me with that 6 IC to direct elsewhere.
The screenshot above was taken in February 1936, so it shows the situation after I’ve already arranged for some key trades with the USA and France and the Soviet Union for necessary Resources. Early on, I’m also building up stockpiles of Supplies, and really focusing on Upgrades (because I’m unlikely to Research quickly enough to have much to Upgrade later on – that IC can then be directed toward unit production).
With limited IC, research into Industrial Production and Industrial Efficiency (one at a time) is likely to be as useful, or moreso, than actually producing new IC onesy-twosy. During peace, such a huge proportion of my IC is devoted to Consumer Goods that I’m unlikely to be able to expand my IC through production in a meaningful way, but the research can improve a percentage of my whole (including that which is currently devoted to CG). The Computing Machine research and Coal Processing will be helpful, but I’ll only have time to research one level of either. Agriculture and Education are useful for almost anyone. We’ll work on improving our airplane techs slowly, and our light tank techs slowly (one tech/level at a time – when one is achieved, switch to the next tech and improve that a level also). This is “budget research strategy”! The two types of research which I cannot skimp on are defensive Infantry techs, like Small Arms and Defensive Support Weapons. Offensive Support tech is more useful to me than the Man-Portable Anti-Tank tech because Germany at this point still doesn’t have a huge number of Armor units, and even those which exist will be marginally useful in Mountain terrain. I’ll worry about anti-tank techs later, if I get to go on the offensive into southern Germany.
I have two options with regard to Ethiopia. Either I fish, or I cut bait. The “sore spot” which Ethiopia has become with the other European powers can’t be improved – the damage has been done. But I need those troops for the defense of northern Italy, and so I want to get them back quickly. Either I end the war, and back away in defeat, or I can try to end the war quickly.
I’m the kind of player who’s inclined to try to end the war successfully, but quickly. And so I set out to do that. Two quick offensives, one in the north, and another out of Italian Somaliland in the south.