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Part XXII: February – March 1937

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The Soviets succeed with a smear campaign in Germany. I'm furious as it raises our dissent by two percent which causes our Effective IC to drop by three points the next day. I write this morally reprehensible act of aggression by the Soviet Union down as a proper justification for Unternehmen Barbarossa.

As we are already disturbed by German affairs, I can use this as an opportunity to tell you about some other events that happened in the meantime: In March, we finished the one delayed PR of infantry and merged the division with the five divisions in Deutsch Krone into a regular six-division corps. The Kriegsmarinewerft finished research on the 1936 troopships -- I will add them to the production queue as soon as my IC allows it -- and Konrad Zuse was subsequently tasked with the development of Basic Computing Machines which will speed our research by six percent. In general, I like to research the computer technologies as soon as possible, as they improve our research modifier and this bonus is, comparable to the manpower growth bonus of Walter Buch, not retroactive, so delaying it without good reason would hurt us unnecessarily. I'm still, in terms of hard currency, a poor sod, so I can't raise my intelligence level, even after the recent vile actions by the Soviets. I will start negotiations for money as soon as the SCW is over.

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In Spain, almost all of our divisions that closed up reached Cordoba, so I start the final battle of the SCW. Eighteen Nationalist divisions, later reinforced by two additional militia divisions that are currently in Badajoz, will attack ten Republican divisions that are sitting behind the fortifications in Cordoba. We have reached a point where I can just ignore all the penalties by rivers, fortifications or terrain, so I will take the last Republican provinces by simple brute force. The battle of Almeria is still ongoing, and all of our divisions that are tasked to capture Cadiz and Malaga arrived in Sevilla. The Republicans are doomed and they will probably be annexed by March.

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Cadiz is surprsingly captured before the fast NCC can capture Malaga, I guess because Malaga has a bigger distance to Sevilla than Cadiz. Nevertheless, the battle in Granada progresses will, some of our units are exhausted, as I didn't allow them to take a break from the last battles. Due to the victorious conclusion of the battle of Almeria, we can compensate this by ordering the support of the SAF in Jaen for the battle of Granada, which also puts Franco in command of the battle.

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The Republicans manage to surprise us for the last time: As we move our divisions out of Sevilla to Cadiz and Malaga, we leave the province undefended, and the two retreating Republican divisions that are still in Sevilla somehow capture the province, leading to the encirclement of our divisions in Cadiz and Malaga by the AI. This is definitely an inconsistency with HoI and AoD, as divisions could never capture the province they were staying in when retreating, they could perhaps manage to capture the province they were retreating to if it was undefended, but otherwise they couldn't do anything. The DH combat system continues to puzzle me with such weird incidents ... Anyway, as the Republicans are about to take their dying breath, we just counter-attack with our six divisions in Cadiz, leading to a victory in Sevilla instantaneously. The NCC, with one HQ division, takes after the capture of Malaga now part in the battle of Granada, too. Our victory is not in question, we defeat the Republicans in Granada after some another days.

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After Granada and Sevilla are captured and the last futile attempts of the Republicans by the remaining Republican divisions in Almeria to retake a VP province -- Murcia -- are repelled, at 1500 on the 5th of February, 1937, the Republicans surrender, and the government of Nationalist Spain declares itself as the victor of the Civil War. All surviving Republican divisions that are occupying Almeria or in retreat cease their resistance and pledge their loyalty to the Nationalist Central Command, and the navy -- the air force was already seized by the Nationalists after the last Republican airport was captured -- is also taken over by Nationalist Spain. Exalted Nationalist soldiers parade the streets of Madrid, celebrating the downfall of the Spanish Republic and the rise of the Spanish State. The government of Germany sent their congratulations to General Franco, the perspective new leader of the Spanish government, which was answered with a letter of gratitude by the Spanish, as the OKW itself masterminded the swift Nationalist victory in just seven months. Stage IV of Operation Gisela and the operation itself are succesfully finished. The victorious German and Italian forces that were sent to Spain are returning home, and we expect to return the full control over the Nationalist Armed Forces to the Spanish General Staff shortly. I will post a short review of the whole operation in the next update, before we lose control of the Nationalist army and go on with Germany.

This concludes the Spanish Civil War.
 
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Well, now that the outcome of the SCW is in your favour, what happens next?

It's basically Waiting for Godot now. Until the Anschluss happens, I can't do much besides trading for some money in order to raise my intelligence level, unit deployments and research. I hope that the 19 additional Austrian Base IC will, after my industrial efficiency is applied, at least allow me to produce my current production queue. I doubt that I will be able to add some transports and additional PRs of CAS to the production queue before the End of Czechoslovakia, and especially the lack of CAS is truly horrible, as you can't blitz in DH anymore without a competent Luftwaffe. The submarines have virtually died now, which is also a major inconvenience, as they seem to be, according to my test games where I had more IC to my disposal, really effective. Let's just hope that the Anschluss happens during the next months, otherwise it'll become very tricky for us.
 
Part XXIII: Review of the Spanish Civil War

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Now, after I captured the Republican navy and air force, we can confirm that the Republicans had a much larger air force than the Nationalists, consisting of four interceptors and five tactical bombers, you can see that they are all stationed in Sevilla. The high number of interceptors made obviously any serious use of the much smaller Nationalist air force impossible, especially because the Republicans had some AA land brigades at their disposal. Nevertheless, I think that the use of the air force by the Republicans was, all things considered, not a major advantage for them; if I would have to take a guess I would say that the SCW could have been concluded perhaps two weeks earlier if the Republicans would have abstained from using their Air Force. In contrast, if we would have been able to order Ground Support missions, the length of much battles would have decreased considerably, probably slashing the length of the SCW by one to two months. If you forget about the initial transport of colonial divisions, the navy didn't play even a minor role during the SCW, but for the sake of completeness I posted the second screenshot with the Republican navy, its (Or is it her? I never figured out entirely how grammatical genders work in English.) homeport being Cadiz.

The Republicans would have been possibly defeated more quickly if our attempts for an encirclement of Madrid didn't fail two times. The reasons for our failures in Madrid are the same reasons that delayed us during the whole campaign: The first being our disastrous organization, and the second stupid mistakes based on false presumptions on the game engine. Therefore, the SCW was a profitable experience for me, learning to things:

1. Copying German strategies on a backward country that even hasn't the ability for amphibious invasions is not wise. Above all things, minding the organisation is imperial. Making breaks is not a shame when the country you play is not designed for Blitzkrieg warfare. In general, more adaption and information regarding the country I'm playing through military control is necessary, not only to find out that said country can't invade provinces by sea. :D Otherwise, this point is admittedly not so important when I will finally wage war with Germany, as the Wehrmacht has a high enough organisation to blitz.

2. Considering possible changes to the combat system: Better safe than sorry. I'm relieved that the grave mistakes happened in the SCW, and hope that we won't see failures in any future conflicts that are caused by false assumptions on my part. It is, for example, still necessary to capture all provinces adjacent to the target province of an encirclement, even though some weird occurences pointed into another direction.

I think that, besides this, there is not much to say about the SCW. The victory was expected, although it could have been better, and our objective of a pacified southern flank was achieved. We will continue in the next update with Germany, as this was probably the last Interbellum conflict where we directly intervened. The pace of the AAR will probably increase dramatically; I think I will cover the rest of 1937 with just two or three (Anschluss, please!) updates if nothing goes wrong.
 
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No German-Spain Alliance?

Perhaps in the future, I think that his aims are toward this alliance, but you have to wait until 1940 or so, before the Nationalists have rebuilt their country plus aren't afraid anymore of the allies...

Alliances are only a question of money, and I don't have the money right now. I would instantaneously start to influence Spain in order to get them into an alliance if I had the necessary funds. I will explain in the next update in more detail how I plan to spend the money I will possibly trade for; but an alliance with Spain is not at the top of my priority list right now, as the most important thing was that no one makes problems in the south west while I'm fighting in Russia, and with the victory of the Nationalists this was already accomplished. Everything else, like a German-Spain Alliance, is pure luxury, although a luxury I will probably obtain in the end -- 1940 is a good guess, as I can invest the money I would normally spent on influencing Italy on Nationalist Spain, due to my staunch rejection of an alliance with Italy.
 
I really only bought DH in appreciation of PI creating such a great series (I had playtested HOI2 but bought straight into HOI3 and I thought I should pay for my playtesting). Your AAR encourages me to play a game or two of DH, while I await some really great stuff that is soon to come to HOI3 (an expansion, a great DLC and the next release of my favorite mod). I am enjoying the read and I appreciate the explanations.

Your English is very good (better than most people who use it as their only language). As for gender, it generally does not apply to objects in English. There are exceptions, as people in the Navy will generally refer to a ship as "she" but a civilian would refer to the same ship as "it". 99% of the time you will be correct if you don't apply gender to objects in English.
 
I really only bought DH in appreciation of PI creating such a great series (I had playtested HOI2 but bought straight into HOI3 and I thought I should pay for my playtesting). Your AAR encourages me to play a game or two of DH, while I await some really great stuff that is soon to come to HOI3 (an expansion, a great DLC and the next release of my favorite mod). I am enjoying the read and I appreciate the explanations.

Thank you for your kind words. :)

Your English is very good (better than most people who use it as their only language). As for gender, it generally does not apply to objects in English. There are exceptions, as people in the Navy will generally refer to a ship as "she" but a civilian would refer to the same ship as "it". 99% of the time you will be correct if you don't apply gender to objects in English.

:eek:o Indeed I've read several times that ships are referred to as 'she' so I hesitated to say 'it' to a navy, as it consists of multiple ships. But I'm happy to read that my English is sufficient, as I'm sometimes struggling with the position of adverbs, comma placement, and the creation of extremely intricated sentences with several subjunctions, which is a German vice I can only hardly strip off.
 
I have seen the above example of the AI moving troops supposedly out of pockets by strat deployment a number of times already. Even stranger I have seen them move troops into pockets as well :rolleyes:

I dont know if that is by strat move or they are being deployed from their force pool, but it is very strange!

Also, didnt know about the difference between AoD and HoI2 you pointed out above. I always split of a division from a corps when they persue a retreating enemy now because I have been trapped like you were far too often :mad:

I think this oddity may be what is leading to the AI allowing itself to be pocketed quite frequently, particularly in the WW1 scenario. Perhaps the AoD fix could be moved across into DH at some point...

Well done so far. I think you should change plans and ally with Italy, if only because I am feeling a little sorry for them at this point. They will end up being annexed by Albania at this rate :p
 
It's basically Waiting for Godot now. Until the Anschluss happens, I can't do much besides trading for some money in order to raise my intelligence level, unit deployments and research. I hope that the 19 additional Austrian Base IC will, after my industrial efficiency is applied, at least allow me to produce my current production queue. I doubt that I will be able to add some transports and additional PRs of CAS to the production queue before the End of Czechoslovakia, and especially the lack of CAS is truly horrible, as you can't blitz in DH anymore without a competent Luftwaffe. The submarines have virtually died now, which is also a major inconvenience, as they seem to be, according to my test games where I had more IC to my disposal, really effective. Let's just hope that the Anschluss happens during the next months, otherwise it'll become very tricky for us.

I see; along with your effective IC adding Austria's, you might get around 21-22 extra IC? enough for the start of two parallels of CAS (I believe - I don't have DH so i can't be sure). Also, along with a possible German-Spanish alliance, do you see it as a possibility to influence Portugal into the Axis? In HoI2, they were parental autocrat so it could be possible.
 
I have seen the above example of the AI moving troops supposedly out of pockets by strat deployment a number of times already. Even stranger I have seen them move troops into pockets as well :rolleyes:

I dont know if that is by strat move or they are being deployed from their force pool, but it is very strange!

Also, didnt know about the difference between AoD and HoI2 you pointed out above. I always split of a division from a corps when they persue a retreating enemy now because I have been trapped like you were far too often :mad:

I think this oddity may be what is leading to the AI allowing itself to be pocketed quite frequently, particularly in the WW1 scenario. Perhaps the AoD fix could be moved across into DH at some point...

Although I think that it'll get fixed in 1.01 due to the several engine bugs that were already reported: Has anybody reported this specifically as a bug yet?

Well done so far. I think you should change plans and ally with Italy, if only because I am feeling a little sorry for them at this point. They will end up being annexed by Albania at this rate :p

Thank you. But I think that Italy is the only nation in the game that is unable to arouse any compassion in me. Really, I feel pitty for the Polish and for the French after they got blitzed, for the British if I bomb or invade the Isles, for the Soviet Union as soon as their army collapses, and I'm even sometimes unhappy when the Chinese are beaten up too hard by the Japanese, although Japan is one of my favourite nations in the HoI series. It's hard to explain, but Italy is just ... well, Italy. I almost died of laughter when this quote appeared for the first time at the bottom of my screen while loading a save:

"'Fuhrer, we are on the march! Victorious Italian troops crossed the Greco-Albanian frontier at dawn today!" -- Benito Mussolini

This even beats the "You will not recognize Berlin in 12 years" from Hitler in 1933. :D

I see; along with your effective IC adding Austria's, you might get around 21-22 extra IC? enough for the start of two parallels of CAS (I believe - I don't have DH so i can't be sure).

You're an optimist. ;) I have calculated it in more detail, and as you will see in the next update, I doubt that even the Anschluss will allow me to produce all units that were initially put into my production queue I posted somewhere on page 1. In fact, I'm afraid that I will have to wait for the End of Czechoslovakia before I can even think of adding something else to my production queue. Even two PRs of CAS (one is already in my production queue) aren't so easy, but I will do everything I can. :( I'm really unhappy that it isn't feasible in DH to just build 20 PRs of industry as Germany anymore, it would make things so much easier now ...

Also, along with a possible German-Spanish alliance, do you see it as a possibility to influence Portugal into the Axis? In HoI2, they were parental autocrat so it could be possible.

An alliance with Portugal is also only a question of money (they're still Paternal Autocrat in DH), but as Portugal would not serve any real purpose, it's at the bottom of my priority list.

So whats your guess when your gonna start ww2 like september 1st or another time?

The 1st of September 1939 is the absolute deadline, delaying the beginning of the war by some weeks or even months is out of question with my low IC. I would actually prefer to attack some months before to give me more time with France and Poland; July would be optimal so that my army could be positioned at the Soviet border by December. If I don't get the Anschluss in 1937 I'm afraid that it will be indeed the 1st of September. As I pointed already out at the beginning; time is working against Germany, so the sooner the war starts the better for me.
 
Part XXIV: March 1937

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Some days later our military control over Nationalist Spain is relinquished by event, and on the 24th of March the Condor Legion returns to Germany. The Nationalist victory in the Spanish Civil War is very advantageous for us: Our dissent is reduced by one percent, which alleviates the effects of the successful Soviet smear campaign against us. We also get better relations with Nationalist Spain, five points of manpower back and last but not least two blueprints for Air Doctrine technologies that will improve our CAS, which will later become quite handy, as we only build CAS bombers.

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It's time to address our problems regarding production and money. I set the Trade AI, as a supportive measure, to stockpiling money -- I never did that before, admittedly, but perhaps it will increase our money growth slightly. There is actually no need to stockpile oil or rare materials like in AoD, or any other resource, as the Trade AI is really competent in acquiring the necessary goods, even during war I never experienced any shortages as Germany in DH. Anyway, we will trade for the bulk of the money through diplomatic negotiations, so this is only an additional gimmick we use in order to fix up our bank account.

Before we acquire the big money, we must optimize our production. It's really a catastrophe -- nothing has actually changed since I posted my production queue, we are still not able to produce more than one PR of HQs, twelve PR of infantry and three PR of armor -- so no air force was produced at all in the meantime. To produce just our current production queue we would need the grand number of 70 additional IC.

Let's calculate if we will be able to reach this number by counting the IC that will be acquired by Germany's pre-war annexations:

19 IC (Austria) + 5 IC (Sudetenland) + 24 IC (Bohemia and Moravia) + 2 IC (Memel) = 50 IC

If we only count the Base IC it wouldn't be enough, obviously. Fortunately we also have our industrial efficiency that will help us to increase our Effective IC. In 1938, after we take one further step towards Central Planning, and if our dissent is gone, our industrial efficiency will be:

12 percent [ministers] + 18 percent [technology] + 10 percent [policy] - 10 percent [peacetime] = 30 percent corresponding to 1,3 [IC modifier]

If we apply the 30 percent on our 50 Base IC, this will grant us 65 Effective IC, which is a surplus of 15 IC due to industrial efficiency. However, we shouldn't apply this to the 50 IC, because the industrial efficiency bonus is cumulative, which means the more IC we have, the more we get. We therefore have to make another calculation:

(151 IC [current Base IC] + 50 IC [Base IC through annexations]) * 1,3 [IC modifier] = 261,3 IC [prospective Effective IC]

So due to our already existing Base IC of 151 we wouldn't get the aforementioned 15 additional Effective IC, but 60 Effective IC if we add 50 Base IC through annexations, leading to 261 Effective IC eventually. 261 IC sounds huge and big, but in fact, we have to consider the actual growth in Effective IC, which is:

261 IC [prospective Effective IC] - 181 IC [current Effective IC] = 80 IC [Effective IC growth]

This is just 10 IC more than we would need (70 IC) right now. So we will be probably just barely able to satisfy our current production queue and add one additional PR of CAS (6 IC), one additional PR of Troopships (2,4 IC) and perhaps a PR of Escort Fighters, although I don't know the IC cost as they are not yet researched.

The fact that I won't be able to produce more than two PRs of CAS worries me deeply. In fact, it was a serious mistake that I put the CAS and interceptors so close to the bottom of my production queue. I wasted my time instead with the fourth PR of armor, which was either way only partially produced, even though I could have produced the CAS PR in the meantime. I'm not amused about my neglicence, and therefore I put immediatly an end to the three PRs of armor that are not produced and move them under the CAS and Interceptors, which allows the full production of the CAS and even the partial production of one Interceptor PR. I was really a fool here, and I just hope that the Luftwaffe will not suffer too much from my carelessness.

Edit: As you can see from my screenshots, my current Effective IC is, due to the burning of dissent, volatile. This is however only a small fluctuation that does not alter the conclusions I drew from my calculations.

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Now, to the solution I've found for our nasty money problem: Pecunia non olet, even if we have to generously pay our future main opponent, the Soviet Union, for their money. In good Capitalist tradition the Soviets have amassed quite the money I'm looking for. I'm happy about this, as I can just solve all my problems with one negotiation (every negotiation costs 39 bucks) instantaneously. For 1154 currency units I pay the Soviets 3804 supply units -- the reason why I chose the supplies are simple: The other resources are virtually worthless when trying to buy some money and would barely increase my chances from the initial zero percent to conclude the deal, and I think that supplies are the resources that will help the Soviets least of all -- they have such a big industry and army that they're probably producing double as much supplies as Germany already -- and I don't really need a big stockpile of supplies; perhaps later for an Offensive Chit, but then I would specifically gear my industry to produce the necessary supplies in some days.

Very well, we now have our money, should we run out again of money, I will try to repeat this nice trick on other nations that have a full bank account. But for now, we have to decide what to do with the money.

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I announced this several times before; the first and most important thing to do with our new money would be to raise our intelligence level so that it won't be so easy anymore to perform hostile intelligence missions in our country. The Counter Espionage modifier was raised by several percent. Notice, however, that the increase we will gain becomes smaller with every further intelligence level raise.

Here's my priority list what else to do with our money:

1. Start: As soon as possible | Anschluss of Austria -- I will have to demand territory from Austria after the Nazi coup, and because every day matters in regard to potential 19 additional IC, this has highest priority.

2. Start: 1st of April, 1938 | Increase relations with Soviet Union to + 50 points -- To sign the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact I need at least a relationship of + 50 points with the Soviet Union. I will achieve this by the use of the 'Influence Nation' diplomatic action -- which will net us, due to the high IC of the Soviet Union, only five or ten relationship points for every attempt -- and I will conclude some trade agreements with the Soviets (which will be really tricky and needs a lot of manual work, as the Trade AI cancels any trade agreements it doesn't like very quickly) which will lead to slow, but steady increase in relationship. Our current relationship with the Soviets is - 75 points, so we already have to start in 1938 if we want our tight time schedule to work out in the end.

3. Start: As soon as our guarantee to Switzerland ends | Demand territory from Switzerland -- The Swiss possess two provinces with 8 IC we have cores on. Although it's not very likely that they cave in to our demands, especially as the guarantee will -- I think -- only end after the outbreak of the war, the IC boost would be really a relief to our strained industry.

4. Start: As soon as the Intelligence cooldown expires | Increase intelligence level -- I would like to increase my intelligence level at least one more time before the war starts. It shouldn't be an easy task for our enemies to delay our production or to stage yet another smear campaign.

5. Start: 1st of January, 1939 | Stockpile 500 money to keep Hjalmar Schacht -- In the first weeks of 1939 an event will fire to dismiss Hjalmar Schacht and replace him with Walter Funk. I won't do this, because Schacht is, until 1942 when our hero and savior (in terms of IC at least, he gives a twenty percent IC boost!) Albert Speer arrives, our only Armaments Minister that can provide the indispensable IC modifier of 5 percent. To refuse to dismiss him will cost us 500 bucks, so we should better save money.

6. Start: Immediatly | Increase relations with Romania and ally -- The Romanians are the allies I must get if I want to attack the Soviet Union in 1939/1940, as they are directly bordering them. The other country that will border the Soviet Union, Hungary, is going to get Slovakia through the End of Czechoslovakia event, which will also lead to the admission of Hungary to the Axis for free. By the way, does someone know the exact date of the coup that happens in Romania and puts a National Socialist government into power? Because before this coup it would be pointless to issue invitations to join the Axis, as they're currently a democratic Social Liberal country.

7. Start: Immediatly | Increase relations with Bulgaria/Spain and ally -- Bulgaria and Spain would be useful allies, but it will take a lot of money to convince them to join the Axis as they're only paternal autocrats and especially Spain is naturally very neutral. Spain would give me a respectable amount of support when attacking France, while Bulgaria would give me a respectable amount of support when attacking the Soviet Union, so I will invest my money quite evenly into the two countries. However, as Case Yellow is first, Spain could get some major attention in the Interbellum years, while Bulgaria would get more attention after the outbreak of World War II.

8. Start: As soon as Romania, Hungary, Spain and Bulgaria are in the Axis | Increase relations with Portugal/Finland/another Fascist countries and ally -- If I launch Barbarossa during the Winter War, it won't even be necessary to invest money into Finland as the game engine would make them automatically join the Axis -- I think; if not, than the effort I must put in Finland would be still negligible -- and Finland is an useful ally against the Soviets. Portugal and other potential candidates like Persia or Argentina would be nice, and we will certainly make attempts in this direction, but only if our other priorites are adequatly satisfied.

9. Start: If Weserübung doesn't take place | Demand territory from Denmark -- This is just for flavor and we won't waste money on Abenra if we can spend it on other useful things.

Comments and suggestions about my priority list are welcome. I always have the feeling that I forget some things, but I hope that this is a quite complete list of things that are proftiable enough to spend some money on. One note, however: The absence of Japan in my priority list is deliberate (as is the absence of Italy, but you know that already), I will go into more detail about Japanese affairs during the next update.

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According to our priority plan, the actions we can immediatly undertake are an improvement of the relations with Romania, Bulgaria and Spain. We start, faithful to our list, with Romania and some weeks later Bulgaria, but we will focus for the time being mostly on Spain, as Romania won't join us as long as they have their Social Liberal government in power, and Bulgaria already received some investments before the Spanish Civil War.

In principle, it all depends now on the question when the Anschluss will trigger. It is said that our beloved Führer has already ordered all churches in Germany to read every Sunday rogations in order to get divine support for an early Anschluss, and the author of this AAR is also desperately hoping that fate will at least once show some compassion and make things not more complicated than they already are. :D
 
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You have, indeed, calculated it in more detail than me. :D

Your priorities list looks sound, I do hope that you'll be able to complete it.
 
Part XXV: April – June 1937

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There are also some major developments regarding technology: I.G. Farben finished the research of Agrichemistry, boosting our industrial efficiency and efficiency in producing supplies by 2 percent (also a reason why our Effective IC fluctuates, I've forgotten to mention that in the previous update), Erich Raeder finished the research on Task Forces, making Naval Patrol and Interdiction missions five percent more effective, and Blohm & Voss completed research on Improved Naval Invasions, which will, well, improve our abilities to stage naval invasions. :D We used the three available tech slots for two important air force technologies and one not so important navy technology: Junkers researches 1937 CAS bombers and Focke-Wulf 1937 Escort Fighters, which will hopefully enable us to compensate the relative small size of the Luftwaffe at least with state-of-the-art equipment for my CAS and some escorts for my initial tactical bombers. Blohm & Voss is retained as a tech team and is tasked with the research of Long Range Submarines -- due to our critical IC situation I explained before in detail, I doubt that we will build any submarines, but when finally better times arrive, submarines will be one of the first things I will put into the production queue. It's really unpleasant that I have to forego them now, they perform very well in DH, already prompting some guys on the DH main forum to accuse them of being overpowered. ;) During the timeframe of this update Messerschmitt will also conclude the research on 1937 Interceptors, and I will subsequently order Krupp to research 1938 Basic Light Tanks, but six months before 1938 actually begins. Yes, you could call six months pre-researching somewhat decadent if you consider the hefty penalty for research speed Krupp gets, but actually I've already researched or I am researching all 1937 technologies that haven't been excluded already from the beginning. And because I feel that I have somewhat given my panzer forces a too harsh chastisement by coldheartedly moving three armor PRs down the production list -- although it was necessary -- I think that it's therefore justified to research from all available 1938 technologies the 1938 armor technology first. Besides, if the rogations for an early Anschluss will be heard, I will get from Czechoslovkia blueprints for the 1939 Improved Light Tank technology also earlier, which would enable us to research this technology earlier, too, but this time with a blueprint that will boost our research speed considerably. :)

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Financing my own intelligence with money from the KGB Soviets was perhaps not the best idea, after all. Well, I think they were just lucky here by delaying the second PR of infantry by two months (the British managed to delay the first PR), but it nevertheless remembers us that I wish to raise my intelligence level again sometime around September. As long as this doesn't become a regularity, I'm not concerned about the production of infantry, all PRs will arrive in time -- I think. If not, I will move them just two months later to the front; I hope that I will not be in such a critical situation that two divisions will decide the outcome of the war.

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Despite all worries, my mood virtually skyrocketed as soon as my first three armor divisions were completed. My lovely panzers -- they will slice through the French and Polish like a warm knife through butter. :) The units will join the already existing three light armor divisions under the command of General von Manstein in Potsdam, thus my first armor corps is completed. I hope that I will be able to finish at least one another full armor corps before the war starts -- which would be only possible if the Anschluss happens during the next months. It's somewhat of a quiet shock that half of 1937 is already over and the Austrian Nazi coup still didn't trigger, but there is still the faint hope that it could happen any day, despite the low odds. It's not a game-deciding question, but an optimal execution of my strategy relies on it. I have managed to beat the French in one of my test games with just one armor corps after five months, and I could have been even faster if I had used the armor corps not in the Ardennes, but at the coast of the Low Countries in order to capture Paris with a lightning attack. In another test game where I had two armor corps at my disposal France has fallen after two and a half months. So even if I will have only one armor corps, I hope that the early attack will ensure that this doesn't take too long, especially as I have against France some extremely evil strategies that will be later introduced to you. ;)

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Now to the promised discussion of Japanese affairs. The Japanese have, of course, demanded from me to recognize Manchukuo, and I have, for the first time since I started playing HoI, decided to ignore the Japanese demands. I've brood over this decision very long, as it would basically cast my foreign policy towards Japan in a mould. I think I spent several minutes with thinking before I finally decided to reject the Japanese demands. My decision is based on two major reasons:

1. Look how the Japanese are performing in the Sino-Japanese War. It's just ludicrous, it's even worse than the Italian "invasion" of Abyssinia -- the Japanese have, after more than six months, only captured four -- I repeat -- four provinces in Northern China. This is such a drastic show of incompetence, I think I've never seen such a bad performance by Japan. If everything works well for the Japanese, they usually stand before the gates of Nanjing after six months, and if everything works bad for the Japanese, they usually stand after six months at the Yellow river (Changzhou -- Anyang -- Xinxiang -- etc.). But this is far from being bad -- I have no idea what they're doing. If we don't see any surprises during the next weeks, the USA will probably crush Japan like a bug as soon as they enter the war -- if they aren't repelled in the meantime by the Chinese to their home islands.

2. I have looked in more detail on the Japanese events with Alt + Tab before making my decision, and it doesn't look good. As I have already said before, if Japan forms an alliance with another country, they form their own alliance block, which makes it impossible to invite Japan to the Axis. The Japanese have proven several times in my test games that they will at some point form alliances in the Far East, especially with their puppets -- and after I looked at the japan.txt event file, I can confirm that two of these alliances, Manchukuo and Mengkukuo, are actually written into events, which makes the whole issue even more complicated, as I can't profit from Japan in any imaginable way without them being in the Axis. I would have to invite them very early to make sure that they join the Axis -- but this is not going to happen before the beginning of World War II, as I would enter their war against the Chinese, causing my belligerence to rise significantly, especially because of the Führer, and would need to spend way too much money on this.

This does not exclude an alliance with Japan -- it only makes an alliance very unlikely. I'm not willing to spend my money on a country that is about to be beaten up by both the Chinese and the Americans, especially as it could be in the end impossible to invite them to the Axis. Should I change my mind and need, for example, help against the Soviets -- although I doubt that they would be a help, the Soviets would probably even assist the Chinese in seizing Manchukuo swiftly -- I could always repair the fifteen-point-relationship hit if they are still available for an alliance. I won't get the leader and techteam Alexander von Falkenhausen for refusing to ignore the Japanese demands, but as the techteam is crap and the leader not an outstanding genius, it's not even a moderate loss. Far more important is the fact that we can continue to make profitable trades with both China and Japan, as the relationsship with Japan is not destroyed by this decision, while the Chinese would hate us forever if we would recognize Manchukuo. This is also in good old Prussian tradition, since the Crimean War in 1853 we always supplied in times of neutrality both sides in a war with weapons. ;)

darkesthour201104231453.jpg


OK. After this event fired, I wanted to know what the Pact of Steel actually does (I haven't bothered about this before, thinking it was only a minor event), and as I've already started to look up some Japanese events, I started to do the same with Germany. I have now finally figured out how the event chain that leads to the Anschluss actually works. You will be, I think, surprised, because according to my new observations, it was impossible that the Anschluss would trigger before the Pact of Steel, making all hopes during the last months pointless. I will show it to you:

Code:
    trigger = {
        OR = { random = 4 AND = { random = 55 year = 1938 } year = 1939 }
        OR = {
            AND = {
                non_aggression = { country = AUS country = GER }
                NOT = { guarantee = { country = ITA country = AUS } }
                minister = 1
            }
            alliance = { country = GER country = ITA }
        }
    }
These are the requirements for the Nazi coup in Austria. Remember, in order to enact the Anschluss decision as Germany, this event must have fired in Austria. Apart from the first OR condition, which says that the chance for the coup to fire in 1937 is 4 percent, that the chance will increase in 1938 by 55 percent, and the chances for the coup are in 1939 100 percent, other conditions must be satisfied, which is defined in the second OR condition.

The second OR condition can be satisfied in two ways:

1. Germany and Italy have an alliance. (This was a most unpleasant discovery. :D)
2. Germany and Austria have a non-aggresion pact (check!), minister no. 1 -- the one and only Führer, of course -- is still alive (check!), and Italy must not guarantee the independence of Austria. The latter was obviously the crux: Italy did guarantee Austria until now, and this guarantee was just removed through Italy signing the Pact of Steel.

But what caused Italy to sign the Pact of Steel? Could they have signed it earlier? Well:

Code:
    decision = {
        event = 2003007
        exists = SOV
        NOT = {
            war = { country = GER country = ITA }
            war = { country = GER country = JAP }
            war = { country = JAP country = ITA }
            alliance = { country = GER country = SOV }
            alliance = { country = JAP country = SOV }
            alliance = { country = ITA country = SOV }
        }
    }

    decision_trigger = {
        OR = {
            alliance = { country = GER country = ITA }
            year = 1938
            event = 2011021
        }
    }
    
    trigger = {
        OR = {
            alliance = { country = GER country = ITA }
            AND = {
                    flag = JAP_Anti_comintern_pact
                    random = 10
            }
            AND = {    
                    flag = NO_JAP_Anti_comintern_pact
                    random = 5
            }
        }
        exists = SOV
        NOT = {
            war = { country = GER country = ITA }
            war = { country = GER country = JAP }
            war = { country = JAP country = ITA }
            alliance = { country = GER country = SOV }
            alliance = { country = JAP country = SOV }
            alliance = { country = ITA country = SOV }
        }
    }
I'll give you the gist of it: The decision to sign the Pact of Steel becomes potentially available for Italy as soon as I enact the Anti-Comintern Pact decision. Then, I either have to ally with Italy (... :D) which would trigger the Pact of Steel for Italy instantaneously (... :() or wait for event 2011021 to trigger and have some luck (5 percent or 10 percent chance, depending on the question if Japan has joined the Anti-Comintern Pact, which it would have if I had recognized Manchukuo). You ask what event 2011021 is? Well, look at the fourth picture in this update. Event 2011021 is the event that fires in Japan in order to force me to recognize Manchukuo. So we will go even deeper and try to find out if Japan's decision regarding the recognition of Manchukuo could have occured earlier as well:

Code:
    trigger = {
        OR = { random = 12 AND = { year = 1938 random = 70 } }
        flag = anti_comintern_pact
        exists = CHI
        exists = GER
        exists = MAN
        OR = {
            war = { country = JAP country = CHI }
            alliance = { country = GER country = JAP }
            }
        NOT = {
            alliance = { country = GER country = CHI }
            alliance = { country = GER country = CYN }
            alliance = { country = GER country = CSX }
            alliance = { country = GER country = CXB }
            alliance = { country = GER country = SIK }
            war = { country = GER country = JAP }
            }
        }
It basically starts all with the Anti-Comintern Pact. As soon as the Anti-Comintern Pact decision is enacted by Germany and Japan is at war with China (or allied with Germany ...) there is a 12 percent chance to fire the recognition of Manchukuo, which rises in 1938 by 70 percent. This would then set all other necessary events in motion, ultimately leading to the Anschluss.

I hope that this wasn't boring or confusing, but I think that a precise investigation of Germany's event chain is at least informative for all people who play Germany '36 in DH theirselves. Even more important is the question: What conclusions can we draw from it?

1. The fastest way to get the Anschluss is to ally with Italy after the enactment of the Anti-Comintern Pact decision as Germany, because this causes the Italians to sign the Pact of Steel, therefore annulling their guarantee of Austria, and therefore making the Nazi coup in Austria possible. Another way would be to ally with Japan after the Anti-Comintern Pact and to have some luck (12 percent in 1936 and 1937, 70 percent in 1938), triggering the Manchukuo recognition event, then recognizing Manchukuo as Germany (for 10 percent chance instead of 5 percent to get the next event) and subsequently triggering the event that allows Italy to sign the Pact of Steel, making the Austrian Nazi coup possible.

2. Italy has now signed the Pact of Steel, so there is no need to alter our strategy, as now all conditions for the Nazi coup in Austria are satisfied. If I had the knowledge I have acquired now at the beginning of the game, I would have probably done everything possible to conclude an alliance with Italy. My initial ignorance perhaps delayed the Anschluss by some months, but also saved me from an alliance with the Italians. Now the conditions for the Nazi coup in Austria are fulfilled anyway, so I just want to say, regarding the missed Italian alliance: Good riddance. As I can't change it anymore, I just try to see the positive side, and the lack of an alliance with Italy is positive, at least in my opinion. :D

3. I'm so optimistic right now. The Anschluss will probably fire now in some weeks or even days -- look at the event that allowed Italy to sign the Pact of Steel: The chances that this event would occur were only five percent (per day? I don't know it exactly), and not ten percent, because I have refused to recognize Manchukuo. Nevertheless, the event fired just two days later. The chances for the Nazi coup are in 1937 four percent -- this is only one percent lower, and this gives me hope. Mathematics can even verify my hope: I have the impression that the chances are indeed given on a per-day basis, so based on this assumption the chance that we will get the Anschluss in 60 days are 1 - 0,96 ^ 60 = 0,9136 = 91,36 %. :)

Edit: On the other hand, the chances could not be given on a per-day basis, which would deceive my hopes and calculations. I opened a new thread in the User Modifications subforum to get a definite answer.
Edit2: After getting an answer from Fernando Torres, it seems that I was indeed mistaken with my assumption that the random trigger works on a per day basis. Chances work in DH on an offset basis. The offset for the Austrian Nazi Coup is 30 days, which means that the daily chance for the event to trigger is 0,04 / 30 = 0,0013333 = 0,13 %. So the chance for the coup to trigger in the next 60 days are 1 - 0,9987 ^ 60 = 0,07508 = 7,5 %. :(
 
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keep it up

I try, but as I also wish to spend some time with my family during Easter, it isn't that easy. ;)

You have, indeed, calculated it in more detail than me. :D

Mathematics is cool, especially stochastic. You can cheer yourself up by just calculating how probable it is that the Anschluss will happen. After I entered the last equation into my calculator, I almost started to weep for joy. (No, not literally, but in a figurative sense.) And don't forget that I'm playing Germany. According to cliché, in Germany you don't round pi to 3,1 -- you round it to 3,142, and that's already for starters. :D ;)

Edit: Look at the edits in the update. :(

Your priorities list looks sound, I do hope that you'll be able to complete it.

I hope that too.
 
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Mathematics is cool, especially stochastic. You can cheer yourself up by just calculating how probable it is that the Anschluss will happen. After I entered the last equation into my calculator, I almost started to weep for joy. (No, not literally, but in a figurative sense.) And don't forget that I'm playing Germany. According to cliché, in Germany you don't round pi to 3,1 -- you round it to 3,142, and that's already for starters. :D ;)

Edit: Look at the edits in the update. :(

I saw the edits, that sucks; only 7.5% for Anschluss to happen. But still, that better than nothing - it could possibly happen still.

Also, interesting move in not ally Japan - it could work to your advantage when the Allies + US are at war with Japan whilst only the Allies are at war with you.

Lastly, I find mathematics to be....meh. :D
 
K.W.

I think I am missing something in your use of ministers. You put in the manpower minister +10%. But the Daily Manpower rate of Germany is 0.0004 or 0.144 per year. With the minister it would be 0.00044 or 0.1584 per year. At that rate you would need 10 years to get 1.584 manpower into your pool.

My testing shows that the minister provides no benefit to the mobilization events at all.

Do you really think he is worth giving up a 5% discount to consumer goods? Given your consumer goods are still high (you are at Peace) and will get higher as you gain IC from Austria, Munich and Partition of CZE.

Also I did some manpower testing and if you extend service by 3 years in 36 you get 636.5 men. If you do the same after Austria is yours you get 703.0 men. Again if you did it after Partition of CZE you get 788.5 men.
You also get 300 men for Austria and 100 for Munich.
It would seem that you can max your available men by waiting to extend your service. I know your strategy dictates having more units early as you are going after France first (if I read that right), but thought you might want to know what you give up for that.

Also one last thing. The Chief of the Army gives -5% to armour units, but note it is armour not light armour, so you get no benefit to your light armour builds.:eek: On the other hand you should switch him with Luttwitz who gives a 3% discount on infantry which you are build allot of.:D

I really like the deep analysis of your play, very informative.