Part XXXVIII: Defining Strategy Update
Welcome to the pivotal moments of this AAR. The German forces are about to enter the fields of Flanders. The following weeks will perhaps not decide if I win -- but they will certainly decide if I lose. Should I fail here, I will fail the whole game. I gamble for high stakes -- so I won't waste time, because this time comes a wall of text first and then the pictures:
Strategical Situation and Approach
Our armies in the Netherlands have performed according to our expectations, not to say that they even performed slightly better than that. The quick defeat of the Netherlands allowed us the luxury to take some days of rest in order to increase our organisation for the most important offensive that will start shortly. The Dutch government has, in the meantime, capitulated and we inherited a unit of old transport ships, but this only as a side note. It is now the 28th of July, 1939, and the attack will begin as soon as I unpause the game.
Not only the fact that the Belgians have put their army under full French command, but also the overall situation dictates that we view Belgium and France as one entity during this stage. Consider Belgium as French territory. It is not an option to aim specifically at the fall of Belgium first and then prepare for a main offensive against the French mainland. Such a strategy would inevitably allow the French to form some serious defensive positions in North France in expectation of such a separate operation, leading to static warfare; and as history teaches us, static warfare means doom, especially if one is surrounded by potential enemies like in Germany's case who could backstab us at any time. Therefore, there will be only one joint operation that deals with both France and Belgium at the same time. Peeling France like an apple by systematically eliminating all obstacles in our way would be utterly wrong. The majority of the obstacles in our way can very well stay in our way if we can sidle through them. No, in order to succeed we have to stab the core of the apple with a sharp needle -- or in this case, with two sharp needles, quick and hard; but more on that soon.
According to our spies, the number of French divisions is on an all-time high. The French command roughly 117 infantry divisions, two armour and one HQ division. We, on the other side, have only 105 divisions on the Western Front, and for the second stage of Case Yellow only 69 divisions will be available at all. However, on the brighter side, the number of our armour divisions amounts to twelve, and of our HQ divisions to three, which gives us the obligatory speed edge over France that is necessary for the kind of maneuver warfare we need right now.
Our scheme with Luxembourg also seems to work. The French are diverting dozens of their divisions away from North France to Alsace-Lorraine, and I am very certain that they will try some kind of adventure by starting at least a small invasion of South Germany through Luxembourg, which I will allow, as explained in one of the previous updates. Everything which clears our main operational area -- the region around the Atlantic Coast in Belgium and North France -- out of French divisions is welcome and appreciated. An integral part of the strategy for this stage will be therefore an attempt to divert the attention of even more French divisions to places outside our operational area. All combined this will hopefully help to even the odds at least temporarily.
Another issue that favours us immensely is the (presumably) desolate state of the French army. As of the 28th of July, 1939, France still did not mobilise. Only two year conscription laws are in force. Therefore, the numerous reserve units that every major power possesses are without reinforcements. Some French divisons can't actually be called "divisions" at all, as they are just shadows that desperately need the strength boost that comes with the mobilisation events.
Paris is the key. If Paris falls, the French Republic will also fall, even if gazillions of French divisions in Alsace-Lorraine, South Germany or other places where our diversionary tactics work successfully remain unbeaten and undefeated. The
Fall of France event will fire as soon as we control Paris and thirty-five percent of French territory. Seizing French territory will be not difficult at all after we take Paris -- because Paris is the gate to numerous undefended French provinces. The French will never be able to form a coherent Front line against us if we occupy Paris due to its central position and due to the subsequent confusion and lack of resources and supplies after taking the French capital in a lightning attack. Starting from Paris, we could advance into any possible direction without any resistance and literally farm French provinces before we meet the French in Compiègne ...
The Air Force won't play an important role in my strategy and will only have a supplementary role. I can hardly predict if the airports in the Benelux states will be of any use considering the speed of the campaign. If everything goes well, then the Air Force probably wouldn't have replenished their organisation from the rebasements that are necessary in order to bring Paris and North France into the range of our planes.
Remaining Objectives
Capture of Amsterdam until the 23rd of July, 1939.
Total occupation of the Netherlands, including firm control of the Middelburg-Eindhoven-Maastricht line until the 30th of July, 1939.
- Capture of Brussels until the 16th of August, 1939.
- Launch of a first spearhead attack against Paris through Bruges until the 16th of August, 1939.
- Launch of a second spearhead attack against Paris through Brussels or Mons until the 23rd of August, 1939.
- Capture of Paris and total occupation of Belgium until the 30th of September, 1939.
- French capitulation until the 30th of October, 1939.
Specific Strategy for Stage II of Case Yellow
The main campaign against Belgium and North France must be concluded with the capture of Paris, and therefore I tasked von Manstein, von Rundstedt, von Kluge and Guderian -- our finest and most excellent leaders -- to take the city directly with our fast armour and HQ corps. Both spearheads will operate independently from each other, increasing the chances that at least one spearhead reaches the outskirts of Paris. We expect an initial delay as they first have to battle some French divisions in Bruges and Antwerpen and must take some Belgian provinces, but at least one spearhead should after this proceed quite fast. If we have luck, the French only left North France with four divisions per province at a max. If we don't have luck, then we will simply increase our recklesness and throw everything we have at the French to clear a path to Paris as fast as possible with our infantry divisions. Failure is not an option.
Our infantry corps under the command of von Reichenau, von Witzleben and List will of course provide some battle support and keep a supply route open so that our spearheads won't run out of fuel. However, the amount of combat support they provide will inevitably dwindle the closer we come to Paris as we are forced to leave corps at some point behind to secure aforementioned supply routes. The area our supplies will run through is contained by the provinces of Dieppe, Chateau Thierry, Laon and Lille, and therefore our infantry will stop here, so only two corps could support from Dieppe and Chateau Thierry an attack on Paris.
Of course, one province -- Lille -- is missing. Field Marshal von Küchler will guard this province, but before doing this, he is taked with clearing all the provinces in the "pocket" from possible hostile French divisions. I purposefully decided to let him marsh with the Middelburg spearhead first until Amiens so that if some French divisions are stationed in Calais they will be automatically destroyed by him due to the "encirclement" of the province. He will then marsh straight to Lille.
And now to our distraction maneuvers. All infantry divisions and the remaining HQ from Maastricht and Eupen will give the French a good incent to direct their attention at East Belgium rather than at our two totally harmless and good-natured spearheads.
The twelve infantry divisions from Eupen will harass the seven French divisions in Liege. By not attacking with an overwhelmingly strong force we protract the length of the battle. Not only that long battles are good just because they keep the French divisions busy with minor affairs rather than with important ones (like protecting their capital) -- also, long battles where the defender has a chance of winning usually prompt the AI to reinforce their provinces with even more divisions. I would be so glad if the French reinforce Liege with additional divisions that I wouldn't even mind to lose the battle.
But in case that we win in Liege, only one six division corps will occupy the province, the other will stay behind in Eupen as it is only supporting the Battle of Liege. We will surround Luxembourg in Saarbrücken, Eupen, Liege and Arlon with five six division corps in total. On one side, by placing only such light defenses in each Belgian province, we pretend to be a good target for any passing French divisions that would otherwise hurry to Paris, and if we have luck, we will be attacked. On the other side, by having so many divisions spread around Luxembourg, we can at any time put an end to a possible French invasion into South Germany if the French go too far -- Luxembourg would be attacked from at least four different directions, thus occupying the province within days and cutting any French divisions in South Germany off from vital supplies.
The stack in Maastricht has not only the task to distract, but should also see if a total occupation of Belgium is possible. Therefore, one infantry corps is marching to Arlon, and another to Mons. The third infantry corps and the HQ are only ordered to enter Namur as I will decide later, depending on the situation, where these units will go. By withholding these divisions for now we strengthen our ability to respond flexibly towards any French surprises.
A final overview of all movements. The Polish are still calm and tame, so I decided to order the one division corps commanded by Rommel in Opava to Amsterdam to have some coast guards in case of a French or British invasion attempt in the middle of my offensive. The AI in Darkest Hour really likes such nasty small-scale invasions.
--------------------------------------------------
Hopefully my save won't be damaged on the day I wish to continue the game ...
o
... OK, I'll make a backup of it at once.
Even if this means to ensure the execution of my own self-made downfall.
I just hope that I will be able to bring myself to unpause. I have this weird gut feeling all the time.