Kriegsgefahr (Impending War) – Germany 1936 AAR – (SF HPP)

[WhisperingDeath]

Glad to see that this is back online (as it were). Hope you are feeling better and dealing with the snow. Don't feel that I can really comment on the action at this time as I do not have the time to re-read some of this now. Continued good luck with the book and AAR; actually 'AARs' as many of use are waiting for some other updates! But you know that too.

[Stuyvesant]

Thanks for the update and I'm looking forward to the eventual continuation of this. Since it's been a few days, I hope you've beaten your cold and that the snow is manageable by now (I assume Colorado is like Minnesota - the blizzard might be a problem, but give it a day or two, and all the streets are plowed and passable again ).

The situation in Poland looks... troubling. Yes, you do have the qualitative edge, but boy, do the Soviets bring the quantity. I also noticed that in most of the battle reports visible, the loss ratio is distinctly to your disadvantage. I hope you get those Panzers rolling off the assembly line and into battle and stop the Soviets soon. Otherwise, we might need Adolf to do a version of Churchill's famous speech.

[GiantSloth123]

How do you change militia to regular infantry?
How do you download HPP?
How do you change dissent to change on other countries so you can do things like the treaty of munich?

Also Ive been reading this aar for like 6 hours straight and finally caught up. NO BREAKS!!!! ITS AWESOME!!! Didnt know someone wanted to be peaceful with germany if i want to take loads of land germanys who i think of not if i want to be peaceful

[TheBromgrev]

1) It's a Semper Fi feature, so you have to have that expansion or For the Motherland to use it. When you click on a division there's a wrench icon in the brigades list. Clicking the wrench will allow you to upgrade that brigade to another allowed type.
2) Register your game then visit the modding sub-forum in the HOI3 forum. From there you can see the HPP's sub-forum in the list at the top. Or you could click the link in my signature after registering your game (the forum won't let you get there until your game is registered)
3) The Treaty of Munich is a decision Germany can choose to take, not something that happens as a result of external factors. In the HOI3 and SF versions of the mod there's a spy mission that creates dissent in other countries and lowers ruling party support.

[LewsTherin]

Nah Rens! With the quality of your work it's never a chore, merely pleasure. So keep 'em comin!

[Rensslaer]

Glad to see that this is back online (as it were). Hope you are feeling better and dealing with the snow. Don't feel that I can really comment on the action at this time as I do not have the time to re-read some of this now. Continued good luck with the book and AAR; actually 'AARs' as many of use are waiting for some other updates! But you know that too.

Thanks, WhisperingDeath! Sorry I didn't show back up right away with a new update, as I was planning. Grr... IRL stuff. I'll be updating the others soon, too, I hope.

Thanks for the update and I'm looking forward to the eventual continuation of this. Since it's been a few days, I hope you've beaten your cold and that the snow is manageable by now (I assume Colorado is like Minnesota - the blizzard might be a problem, but give it a day or two, and all the streets are plowed and passable again ).

The situation in Poland looks... troubling. Yes, you do have the qualitative edge, but boy, do the Soviets bring the quantity. I also noticed that in most of the battle reports visible, the loss ratio is distinctly to your disadvantage. I hope you get those Panzers rolling off the assembly line and into battle and stop the Soviets soon. Otherwise, we might need Adolf to do a version of Churchill's famous speech.

Yeah, these guys are going to be hard to stop! I'm not used to this... I'm used to being on the offensive, maintaining the initiative, and not getting into situations like this where I'm a relatively minor power looking for a chink in the behemoth's armor. This is very different, but it's also fun, so...

And w/re Colorado vs. Minnesota.... Yes, you're almost right, except that in Colorado (even in the dead of winter) it's often more like two days later the snow is melted and people are walking around in sandals and shorts. Yes, we DO have 4 seasons here. In fact, we often have 2 or 3 seasons in the space of each quarter!

How do you change militia to regular infantry?
How do you download HPP?
How do you change dissent to change on other countries so you can do things like the treaty of munich?

Also Ive been reading this aar for like 6 hours straight and finally caught up. NO BREAKS!!!! ITS AWESOME!!! Didnt know someone wanted to be peaceful with germany if i want to take loads of land germanys who i think of not if i want to be peaceful

Thanks, GiantSloth! And Welcome! I really appreciate your kind comments. Looks like TheBromgrev answered your questions as well as I could (he's on the HPP technical/promotional/development team), so I'll leave it at that. Unless you have any more questions -- have you gotten to try HPP?

Nah Rens! With the quality of your work it's never a chore, merely pleasure. So keep 'em comin!

Aww... Thanks, Lews! I really appreciate it! You've been following my AARs since about 2005 or so. A pleasure to have you along!

As I mentioned before, I'm still planning to update this AAR soon, and Imperio Novo, and I'm even thinking about my old Roman Civil War AAR which I haven't updated in 4 years. That was too much fun to leave be.

But, as I also mentioned, maybe in another thread, I'm still having IRL obstacles -- just general business and this book which won't get finished. Political times are usually super busy for me. Anyone who remembers past long hiatuses (hiati??) may remember that. So updates will come, just can't guarantee when.

While I'm here I want to mention a very big thing that's going on in HOI 3 AARLand -- the Iron HeAARt Award for best completed AAR in 2011 (obviously, I'm not competing, since none of my recent AARs are complete! ). But there are some great AARs by very talented people in the running. You're probably familiar with some of them, but if you're not you need to be. Quality stuff! Every one of the 5 competing AARs is of top quality. I have my opinions on what's "best" (vs. "most popular"), but make your own decisions and please vote in May!

Thanks - see you all soon.

Rensslaer

[Rensslaer]

Operation Brise – The Second Phase

The Germans are a stubborn people. And, it has been suggested, somewhat arrogant, especially with regard to peoples or armies which are regarded as inferior. It was difficult to admit defeat. So, in the aftermath of the unsuccessful implementation of the first German counteroffensive, they were watchful for an opportunity to redeem themselves – to catch the Soviets, again, overextended, and to make it stick this time. There was no operational name for this second push – it was merely an adjunct to Operation Brise, which technically ended on the 8th of August.

In a way, the pincers had been applied, but hadn’t successfully bitten through the Russian lines, because of the onrush of new divisions. In the eyes of the planners, Op. Brise hadn’t been a flawed plan – it just hadn’t worked. The divisions engaged had essentially retreated to their starting points. By the 11th of August, in fact, the situation looked very much as it had at the end of July, except that both sides had more divisions along the front. The Germans, however, had more heavy divisions, while the Soviets had more infantry. It was felt the balance was improving in the Heer’s favor. No great change had been effected by the Soviets since its first phase.

It could be tried again.



This time, the thrust was from the south, not from the north, and the focus would be less ambitious – not such a big bite was being taken. Von Mackensen’s 1st Panzer (Panzer IIIs) and Keppler’s 4th Panzer (Panzer IVs) struck at Lomza, supported by airstrikes.

However, almost before the attack had begun, Russian light tanks had crossed the Wistula River to the south, reaching the outskirts of Warszawa. Then, as the enemy line surged further, a Soviet flanking movement was mounted from Siedlce, led by none other than the later-famous General Konev. Rommel held him off as the attack proceeded, but this complicated things. Soon, a wide front was engaged along the flanks of the Soviet advance.



But von Hubicki coordinated the counterattack as it moved forward, and by midday on the 13th, the battle at Lomza was won. The 1st Panzer led the way. From an overall perspective, by the 14th of August, it appears about 2/3 of Poland has been occupied by the Soviet invasion. The USSR has advanced along a relatively stable front, which is playing havoc with the German strategy, which was intended to pinch off the spearheads.

Gen. von Funck attempted to support the closing of the pocket from Lyck, in East Prussia, but the defenders were numerous, and his Panzers were still smarting from the first phase of Operation Brise, so his support was feeble. In hopes of making a second, small encirclement of the southern spearhead, von Hubicki and Rommel hooked south, into Sokolow, rather than continue the intended thrust toward Grajewo.

Indeed, the Soviets seemed to sense their overextension, and the German threat, and retreated too easily from the giddy Polish cavalry advancing out of Warszawa. Nevertheless, the image of sabre-wielding horsemen charging Soviet tankettes became one of the most indelible images of this phase of the war.

Overall, the strategic situation was improving. The 5th Panzer, of medium tanks, was being redeployed into East Prussia, and more light and medium tanks (11th, 7th and Das Reich Divisions) were being moved forward from earlier defensive lines up to a new defensive line along the Wistula, even as more garrisons took position along the old defensive line.



Persistent bombings, and von Funck’s steady pressure upon Grajewo to complete the encirclement of Johannisburg started to show success, as the Soviet units were tiring. By the 17th, it appeared that both hooks of this campaign might actually succeed. The Soviet tanks, however, and everyone else who could, were rushing out of the likely pockets. It was feared the victory might be hollow.

The southern hook was soon beset by countersnipes from all sides, and 2nd Infantry (mot) halted her southern march to provide defensive cover for von Mackensen’s panzers, as they continued south… South, not southwest to complete the encirclement (the Soviets there were too strong), but rather south into Bielsk Podlaski, which was the path of least resistance.



The theory was that if Mackensen could punch through the tired divisions which had been spent upon the Polish front, and other light support units there, he might be able to exploit the breakthrough in the Soviet rear area. At the very least, he might strain the supply lines running north to help Konev and other generals so they could not counterstrike.

Realistically, all this was wishful thinking, with so many Russian divisions of all types moving forward to the front. German overconfidence was bolstered by the fact that yet more divisions had rushed into the pocket at Johannisburg, increasing the stakes of a successful encirclement.

On the 20th and 21st, it seemed as if it just might work. A similar longshot breakthrough was happening in the south, as part of Operation Griff, which may have fortified the German leaders even further. The Soviets stopped pressing into Sokolow, freeing up von Hubicki to attack east, and Rommel was attempting to close the pocket at Grawejo. All attacks seemed to be succeeding.



But the 1st Panzer had completely spent herself. The effort to complete the southern hook – never really having had a clear objective – was halted. A battle led by Gen. Guderian’s 11th Panzer against Lukow pushed the Soviets back across the Wistula at the final breach point, but 1st Panzer and von Hubicki had to withdraw north.

On the 25th, Panzers under Gen. Keppler finally thrust themselves into Grawejo, and from that point on it became a battle to keep the door closed. Rommel held tenaciously onto Lomza, Keppler onto Grawejo, and the small corridor separating Johannisburg from supporting troops to the south (which were nevertheless suffering supply problems because of von Hubicki’s drive) was held by Polish cavalry.



From the west, Guderian and others continuously tried to cross the Wistula to relieve the German pocket in Sokolow, but the river crossing was too difficult for the primarily panzer divisions. The panzers which had punched through to Grawajo withdrew back into East Prussia to preserve their strength, leaving infantry under Gen. von Paulus to hold the line there.

The trapped Soviet infantry in Johannisburg were battering at Gen. Rommel, trying to make their way free. He stood resolute. But von Paulus eventually yielded on the 26th of August. The German forces in this region were just too few, with too many tasks. They couldn’t do everything, in the face of so numerous a foe.



The top priority became to destroy the pocketed Russian divisions before relief arrived from the outside. The sheer irony was this – the Germans had been so eager to watch more Soviet divisions rush into the pocket, thinking they could be defeated there. Now, it was their numbers that kept them alive, and their perimeter strong once the encirclement began to falter.



As soon as Soviet tanks recaptured Grawejo, on the 27th, reconnecting with the beleaguered forces in East Prussia, and allowing them a route of escape, the German priority became extracting its own forces before they, in turn, could be surrounded.

Once more, Rommel proved the hero, keeping the escape routes open for von Hubicki to the south. The forces attacking him were the same which were trying to escape the pocket, and they were all on the verge of defeat. The Russian position remained tenuous, but the Germans were spent, offensively – they could not mount another attack to push the Soviet light tanks back in time.



And then, on the 28th when all hope of a stand was lost, Rommel shepherded the battered but still orderly divisions into the corridor toward home, guarded still by our allies the Poles. What had ironically begun as a hubristic assumption that we could do better than the Polish Army had resulted in a demonstration that they were steady and capable in collaboration with German troops.

By the 29th, all German forces had been extricated from occupied Polish territory in an organized retreat. The counteroffensive – both counteroffensives – had failed to accomplish its strategic objectives, or even a tactical victory of the sort which had been intended. But neither were German forces encircled by the Soviets, or effectively defeated.



In the end, both phases of Operation Brise could be seen as a detailed delaying action – throwing confusion into the ranks of the enemy, slowing her advance. In the end, all that had been accomplished was a monthlong delay in the Soviet invasion of Poland. But it can hardly be argued that is not something. Time to dig in, time to prepare, time to recruit and train the defensive forces of the Reich. Not a total loss, by any measure.

But, already, Soviet troops had re-crossed the Wistula, which just re-emphasized what seemed to be their unstoppable nature, and the inevitable defeat of, at the very least, the Polish lands.

Up Next: The Conclusion of Op. Griff in the south...

[SSmith]

Yes, indeed, any delaying tactic is very useful. Slowing the Soviet advance is vital to strengthen Germany's defences.

That was an intriguing struggle between the two sides. It may have ended in a draw, but it could so easily have resulted in the loss of some Soviet divisions... or indeed some German divisions! I think Germany might have felt that loss more heavily!

[Surt]

Maybe the kessel could have been kept closed if the southern attack hadn't occurred.

[misterbean]

9 divisions saved by the tenacity of my (only) German hero. Rommel standing proud, once again!
BTW, good to see you updating again. I've missed these.

[Stuyvesant]

A delay is certainly welcome, but the casualty rates in the battles you showed were distinctly unfavorable to you (granted, you were trying to hold off forces two or three times your number, so I don't doubt the individual efficiency of the German Soldat) - the overall trend seems to be Germans dying in greater numbers than Soviets. And the Soviets are bringing vastly more people to the party.

I'm getting a little pessimistic about your chances of really hurting the Soviets bad. Maybe it's still to come (I certainly hope so), but as long as the Red Army keeps lumbering forward with masses of divisions on a broad front, your vaunted technological superiority won't be very useful.

Anyway, enough with the pessimism. Let's just hope for the best - a speedy reversal of German fortunes.

[Thandros]

Are You Even Trying to win? For Some Bizarre I get the Impression your not trying to win. Either That or just trying to drag out the story to make it more entertaining.

[WhisperingDeath]

I don't want to echo the pessimism of some of my fellow postAARs - but...! You do not want a war of attrition with the USSR. You cannot hope to win that war. You need the war of mobility. Let's hope things are going better in the south. That may be the gateway for rolling up the Soviet flank.

[Rensslaer]

I'm going to do feedback out of order, simply because it helps in answering questions...

Are You Even Trying to win? For Some Bizarre I get the Impression your not trying to win. Either That or just trying to drag out the story to make it more entertaining.

Ouch!

Well.... How to answer? I've been KNOWN to overplay weaknesses and hide approaching victories for force of effect. I'm also typically very honest about my mistakes and highlight them for purposes of education, rather than miminizing them, as some might do.

On one hand, I'm NOT trying to preserve Poland. I would frankly rather they fall, so long as my defensive lines in German and Polish territory hold fast. So in that sense, no I'm not wanting victory -- I'm wanting victory for Germany, period.

But there are two other things you're probably seeing. One was identified by Surt, and I'll answer that in a minute.

You might think I should KNOW how to win, and I do -- I wrote the strategy guides. But I have a bad habit of not following sound principles, or my own advice and/or not realizing when the advice needs to be modified by circumstances, which is where I come to my other excuse.

This isn't your typical Germany. As was mentioned in one of the setup posts for phase 2 of the AAR, the army I'm using is about the size of Italy's, just with more armor and motorized divisions.

Moreover, it's 1942, but the German Army is using 1940 technology. What's more, my research is lagging partly because I'm not getting the practicals from building alot of units of a certain type.

And because I haven't been conquering, I probably don't have the sort of economy you would expect from a 1942 Germany either.

So it's not that I'm TRYING to lose... it's just that I have some special circumstances created by the game scenario which are holding me back. PLUS I'm having difficulty as a player fitting my mind to the smaller/weaker Germany, and I'm probably trying to play (at this stage) as if I'm a big, powerful Germany. This will get fixed as we move forward, and as I learn lessons. These two starter operations were mainly to test out my military and see how they rate against the Soviets.

Maybe the kessel could have been kept closed if the southern attack hadn't occurred.

Oh, I think you're quite right.

I'm going to refer partly to my answer to Thandros above.

What you're seeing is my habit of using two main offensive forces when I play Germany. In a normal game as Germany, you can HAVE two or three main offensive forces, and still follow principles of concentration of force.

However, my Germany is weaker, and you're quite right, I should have combined my two striking forces, each one comprising one pincer of one counteroffensive. I thought I could get away with using each force independently, expecting it would be strong enough to accomplish encirclements by themselves. Obviously, I was wrong.

I didn't learn this lesson -- didn't adapt this lesson -- until after Ops. Brise and Griff showed me how weak I was.

Yes, indeed, any delaying tactic is very useful. Slowing the Soviet advance is vital to strengthen Germany's defences.

That was an intriguing struggle between the two sides. It may have ended in a draw, but it could so easily have resulted in the loss of some Soviet divisions... or indeed some German divisions! I think Germany might have felt that loss more heavily!

Indeed! It would have been good to eliminate even a couple of Soviet divisions, but I'm quite lucky I didn't lose divisions in the north.

9 divisions saved by the tenacity of my (only) German hero. Rommel standing proud, once again!
BTW, good to see you updating again. I've missed these.

Thanks! Great to have you back! I've missed this (this AAR, and AARs in general) alot myself. I'm starting to feel more "normal" now that I am taking time to do this again, even if I don't really have time still.

Yes, Rommel did a great job.

A delay is certainly welcome, but the casualty rates in the battles you showed were distinctly unfavorable to you (granted, you were trying to hold off forces two or three times your number, so I don't doubt the individual efficiency of the German Soldat) - the overall trend seems to be Germans dying in greater numbers than Soviets. And the Soviets are bringing vastly more people to the party.

I'm getting a little pessimistic about your chances of really hurting the Soviets bad. Maybe it's still to come (I certainly hope so), but as long as the Red Army keeps lumbering forward with masses of divisions on a broad front, your vaunted technological superiority won't be very useful.

Anyway, enough with the pessimism. Let's just hope for the best - a speedy reversal of German fortunes.

Quite correct. The only way (the ONLY way) for Germany to win against the USSR is to defeat the war of attrition through a war of breakthrough and encirclement, which is what I was TRYING to do, but it didn't quite work out (and yet it ALMOST did in a number of places). Grr...

I don't know about my "tech advantage" either -- in looking at a one-for-one comparison, Germany isn't that far ahead in much, and is behind in some areas. That's partly due to the scenario limitations. I have less leadership because I haven't conquered, and less leadership = less research, etc.

I don't want to echo the pessimism of some of my fellow postAARs - but...! You do not want a war of attrition with the USSR. You cannot hope to win that war. You need the war of mobility. Let's hope things are going better in the south. That may be the gateway for rolling up the Soviet flank.

Indeed. Admittedly, at this point in the battle, I was getting kind of pessimistic! Course I didn't really enter with the hubris of historical Germany -- I'd been keeping my forces small, intending to create a defensive army with a strong counterattack element, and that's what I have (that's ALL I could manage, given the Allied threat measures).

My hope is that I can turn it around and overcome without bringing the Allies into the war at my back. Lots left to be played in this game. I don't remember just how far in advance my gameplay is versus my writing. Not that far, all in all.

Great to be doing updates and feedback again, folks!

More to come soon. I'm going to try to get this back on track with regular updates, along with Imperio Novo.

For what it's worth, I'm also updating my EU 3 Sforza!!! and EU Rome The Die is Cast, both of which are 4 or more years running. lol

Thanks!

Rensslaer

[RogueLeprechaun]

I just finished reading through your AAR and I found it of great interest to see how you maintained a low level of threat and avoided war for so long. Very cool to see Germany at peace soaring ahead economically and scientifically.

Now though at war it seems you are going to struggle mightily with such a small Army against the overbearing might of Russia. No doubt with your formidable (and slightly crazy ) IC builds you could rapidly expand the army to hold the Soviets. That will take time though and you and the Poles already seem to be under considerable pressure.

If you continue with this AAR how do you envision defeating the Soviets given your current relative disadvantage in numbers? A massive build up in forces over a few years until you can seriously go toe to toe with them? Those are going to be some massive battles. A mass strategic bombing campaign? (I can't recall seeing that against the SU. Is it effective in Semper Fi?) Or hold them in a strong defence in and around Poland until you can build nukes, and then nuke them to disintegration?

Good luck! I'm intrigued to see where this goes.

[Rensslaer]

I just finished reading through your AAR and I found it of great interest to see how you maintained a low level of threat and avoided war for so long. Very cool to see Germany at peace soaring ahead economically and scientifically.

Now though at war it seems you are going to struggle mightily with such a small Army against the overbearing might of Russia. No doubt with your formidable (and slightly crazy ) IC builds you could rapidly expand the army to hold the Soviets. That will take time though and you and the Poles already seem to be under considerable pressure.

If you continue with this AAR how do you envision defeating the Soviets given your current relative disadvantage in numbers? A massive build up in forces over a few years until you can seriously go toe to toe with them? Those are going to be some massive battles. A mass strategic bombing campaign? (I can't recall seeing that against the SU. Is it effective in Semper Fi?) Or hold them in a strong defence in and around Poland until you can build nukes, and then nuke them to disintegration?

Good luck! I'm intrigued to see where this goes.

Welcome RogueLeprechaun! Thanks for taking the time to go through the whole thing! Glad you enjoyed it.

What I'm expecting -- hoping for -- is that my two defensive lines will create a "soft landing" for the Soviet army -- they will hit my first line, slow down, lose momentum and by the time they hit my second line I can stop them. But I can't guarantee it will work, so this is a little scary. I was expecting that this first counteroffensive could destroy some of their divisions, which is the ONLY way for Germany to win against the USSR -- you have to destroy stuff or else they'll just overwhelm you. But my relative strength against them was too low. Or else I mismanaged it, which I probably did -- I should have concentrated my forces more.

Anyway -- I'm looking forward to seeing what happens too! Thanks for saying hi!

Rensslaer

[Alan deLane]

Hello,

t'was this AAR that made me curious about HPP. Thanks, dear sir.

On topic: thought I haven't read it completly, I always enjoy (and learn from) Rensslaer's AARs. Subscribed.

Yours kindly,
AdL

[Rensslaer]

Hello,

t'was this AAR that made me curious about HPP. Thanks, dear sir.

On topic: thought I haven't read it completly, I always enjoy (and learn from) Rensslaer's AARs. Subscribed.

Yours kindly,
AdL

Great to hear, Alan deLane! Welcome! Thanks for stopping to say hi! I do have an update for this almost ready...

I want to make mention of the AARLand Choice AwAARds (Q2 2012) which are currently underway. There's always been a "stigma" against promoting votes for your own AARs, but a general decision (between Mods and awards promoters) has been made to encourage such promotion this time, as a means of encouraging votes. I will say this: 1) I encourage votes for ANY worthy AARs, not necessarily my own -- Go vote! 2) This AAR (as well as Imperio Novo) technically qualifies for votes, despite having only one update during the quarter (sorry!) -- it is CERTAINLY fair to consider how little has been added to the AAR during the quarter as a strike against it. 3) I do appreciate the 2 votes this AAR has already gotten (and the 2 votes Imperio Novo has already gotten). 4) No matter who you're voting for, PLEASE go read and vote for the most worthy AARs!

As I mentioned to Alan, I do have an update almost ready.... Just have to find time to do final editing, and I'll get it.

Thanks!

Rensslaer

[GhostWriter]

caught up ! !

as usual, magnificent ! !

[Rensslaer]

caught up ! !

as usual, magnificent ! !

Thanks, Ghostwriter!

Okay, the plan for this AAR is a continuation after I finish Imperio Novo, which believe it or not will not take that long at the rate I've been updating this month (5 updates in January I think -- one every 6 days or less).

I'm already itching to get back to the gameplay for this. There has GOT to be a way to defeat the Soviets here... Grr!!!

Anyone else read this but hasn't said anything?

Renss