Yet again, the AAR will probably end earlier than later, having unleashed a two front war upon you that early. Chances seem to be fairly equal, though. I don't quite see the neccessity to close the Baltic Sea just now, it would have been more prudent to delay the invasion of Denmark until a point where the Allies indeed had landed somewhere in that area. This would have cut off their forces there and the cost in forces to do so would be relatively small anyway.
Judging by the relatively small numbers the Soviet player is using against Germany, he is either waiting for your main force to arrive or was trying to do a two pronged pincer movement, attempting to encircle troops in the western parts of the Prijpet marches. I'd expect the Soviet player to have sizable reserves vis-a-vis Romania, small to moderate forces vs Persia etc and basically the historical forces vs Japan. Soviet Russia does not have important provinces in the east, may be except for Vladivostok, so losing them temporarily to the Japanese would not really hurt him at all.
It'd be interesting to see if someone could win the diplomatic battle, eg convincing Hungary, Romania, Yugoslavia, the Baltic States to join either side... Same goes for BeNeLux, Switzerland and possibly Spain.