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umg, how is your manpower pool?

How did you make the Japanese land in Australia? They never do that in my games :(
 
Color me surprised. I expected neutral trading partners to cover a lot more of the UK's resource problems than you're seeing.

I've always been slightly puzzled/miffed at the battle for France in HoI3. It doesn't bother me that the campaign is usually longer in game than in real life, as just about everything that could go right for the Germans did. But I don't think I've ever seen a game with Italy in the Axis in which Italy did not swarm southern France, and I think I've even seen them take Paris a couple of times. I've never understood why the French AI can't effectively bottle the Italians up.
 
20. PERPIGNAN SEPTEMBER

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Persia and Italy have all but defeated Iraq, and an Italian division is moving into Syria. The Japanese have landed in Rangoon. So far, a broader invasion effort around Darwin has not materialized. A number of islands east of Midway still belong to the USA. Japan seems to be getting the better of recent naval exchanges.

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Fighting continues to be fierce in Europe, with overseas forces heavily present and apparently still almost exclusively under Belgian command. The Belgian front remains the bloodiest and most contested. Gains persist in the south of France. With Perpignan taken, the Axis borders Spain on the southern coast. Allied holdings in the Mediterranean are now as follows: French Syria, French Corsica, British Cyprus, British Malta, and British Gibraltar. If the Axis can take just two land provinces, the bulk of the surviving French Maginot Line (Strasbourg and points south) will be pocketed. On the 9th, Brugge, which is defended by an apparent mix of French, South African (light armor), and American (two Marine divisions and the much-abused Big Red One) units, falls, but it is once again under Belgian control on the 12th. On the 20th, Middelburg is retaken as well. Portugal has refused another Axis invitation. UK energy reserves have dropped under 24,000, and French fuel reserves have fallen below 1,000 (which is actually bad news, as I'd like to capture as much fuel as I can).

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The odds continue to tilt in favor of the Axis, although this is an admittedly extreme example.

Strategic concerns are bending away from submarines. On the 12th, three battleships begin production, to be completed in March 1943. Despite their unimpressive technology (1936-era, mostly), they will round out the DTF to the point where I believe it can defend rapid Sealion landings and wipe out anything the Soviets put in the water. Following advances in torpedo and air warning technology which put us historically ahead of the entire war, these U-boat research topics are closed for the time being and work begun on strategic bombers instead (extended-range fuel tanks, not important for the UK but possibly vital in the USSR, and larger bombs). Production also begins on 22 artillery brigades intended to stiffen infantry divisions on the eastern line.

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Type XXIs still waiting on new equipment and new ports.

September sinkings:
Belgium: four merchants and two escorts.
USA: 21 merchants and 14 escorts.
Britain: 22 merchants.
TOTAL: 47 merchants and 16 escorts for 2.3 million merchant tons.

No effective (or even visible) ASW operations this month.

Laurwin, the worst terrains for me have been rivers, fortified provinces, and urban areas. Some of Belgium is lightly wooded, but it doesn't seem to make much difference from plains. Many of those apparent Belgian units are from overseas, but why they are under Belgian command remains a mystery to me. Participating nations on the Allied side of the war for Belgium spotted so far include Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg (still!), France, Canada, Britain, Australia, and the USA.

Encirclement isn't possible at my level of control, and I don't think mobile formations are likely to be encircled by Rommel's forces given their limited fast divisions, particularly the lack of motorized units (which I mostly avoided for fuel reasons, and even now my fuel stockpile is not pretty). Even what Rommel has is not organized ideally for spearhead use.

I'd like to start North American U-boat operations, but range is an enduring issue. It's true that Type VIIs were the overall workhorse of the historical U-boat fleet, but in real life they had U-tankers to refuel from, and without that range extension it's impossible to get them to North America. (Also, as discussed previously, HoI3 does not model all the advantages of the Type VII.) The Type IX was more suited to operations at that range, but again, in HoI3 it lacks the range. Even XXIs based from forward ports look like they'll be hunting more in Canadian waters than off the United States Atlantic Shelf. I think the West Indies can be decisively ruled out. Again, this was all done historically (Operation Drumbeat), but I don't see it happening for me without more assets. Possibly I will be able to declare the ocean secured enough to draw Denmark into the Axis and base boats from Greenland? Is that even possible? I could repair U-boats in Italian-held French Casablanca, but it didn't look like I could base there and calculate range from it. Any US trades to British Isles will go through Home Waters; my main concern in North America is stifling USA trade with rest of world (hopefully Japanese are doing their bit in the Pacific). (Any USSR trades to British Isles can likewise be stopped via Baltic or North Sea.)

UK energy reserves have fallen well below 50,000 over the course of 1940 to date, as detailed above. (It is remotely possible that Britain is slowly running out of fuel, but the rate is too glacial to matter, maybe 1,000 a month, tops. My own fuel is running out faster. This unfortunately means that they will be able to keep operating their fleets for the foreseeable future.)

Near as I could tell, I had to run all my own convoys even though I initiated no trades; I'm not sure how it works either. I don't plan to declare war on Latin America just to sink a dozen merchant flotillas, as tempting as it sounds. The Germans came close to doing that, causing diplomatic incidents with (for example) Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil.

Does lend-lease magically zap stuff across the Atlantic with no actual convoying?

I have succeeded where history failed, sealing the UK off with operations in its own waters, but at the price of failing where history succeeded by taking so long in my conquest of Poland and France, not to mention the Low Countries. I am still ahead of schedule but poorly prepared for any Soviet attack. Whatever Stalin's real plans (I am not an adherent of the reverse-Barbarossa conspiracy theory), isn't eventual Soviet aggression hardwired into the AI?

Land strikes on UK are not an option until and unless their fuel depletes far enough that their defensive fleet(s) cannot operate or the DTF can challenge and drive off any dangers to my transports. If this happens, my overall campaign will be anything but surgical, as at that point the British Isles should be weak enough for a general takeover.

Cybvep, I chose at the outset to pursue alliances as best I could in order to take as much WO II weight off my land army as possible. This has led to a combination of factors which promote the importance of Axis junior partners: my own army is underdeveloped (both in technology and in production) and undermanaged, my primary efforts at sea weaken the Allied forces they face, and there are more autonomous countries in the Axis.

Baltasar, my manpower has remained consistently strong (with collaboration governments probably being a factor). I have a sturdy lead on Allied manpower in Europe. This is part of why I'm still building new divisions; this phase of division construction is mostly over, though, leaving my current manpower at 591.

I've left the Japanese alone. I'm not sure what led to them attacking Australia, but they've avoided India and the Chinese minors. As mentioned, they have not yet begun general occupation efforts in Australia.

dublish, as Laurwin suggests, collapse in the south has everything to do with pressure in the north. Length of the campaign also contributes. Historically, the Germans didn't give the Italian front as much time to succeed as I have. I've definitely seen a less successful Italian front in HoI3, and even in this game the Italians were doing worse than historically in the equivalent timeframe (relative to the start of the war with France). Also, bear in mind that it's half the world fighting down there, not just the Italians and the French. Green units include the Bulgarians and Hungarians, against the yellow of the Belgians (which in many cases is flagged USA) is the yellow of the Romanians, and French blue butts heads with Yugoslavian purple. The rare orange Dutch unit, on closer inspection, tends to be Australian.

sprites, sadly, I'm assuming that soon enough, a blind trigger event will fire and create historical Vichy/German Frances, even though the Italian-led wing has already taken most of geographical Vichy France including Vichy. I would be happy to let the Italians handle Vichy France and even happier to partition it among the Balkans the way Germany itself was temporarily divided between Allies after the historical war.

Sqwerlpunk, as I said at the top, this format's not ideal for me, and updates are most likely to come in rare bursts. This is actually what I prefer to read, second to lengthy single-post AARs (I want a significant amount to catch up on, not one little update), but even if you'd rather see a steadier stream of updates, you'll never be able to set your watch by me.
 
It's unfortunate that all your units do consume the same amount of fuel regardless of their current operation. If that was not the case, you could as well shift a good portion of your subs back to the harbors for R&R and also save a lot of fuel at the same time. Regrettably, you'll have to scrap a good chunk of your subs, retaining only the most modern ones to save the fuel you will need for operations against the communists. Even if you only have a small mobile reserve, your air force will be incredibly important out in the east and it will cost you fuel. Lots of it. May be you can trade with Persia once the Med is turned into the Italian mare nostrum? Any plans for Republican Spain (since you doi have the time to deal with them...)? Where are they diplomatically?

Coming back to the Soviets, what are your plans there exactly? Are you going for 3x Inf 1x Art divisions as a basic model or will you prefer the 2x Inf 2x Art setup, maximizing firepower? Any fortifications / infrastructure / airfields / Radar sites .. upgrades in progress? Not sure if the Soviet attack is hardwired, but it seems to be a very likely possibility.
 
Ships don't consume fuel when docked in HOI3 (they do, however, consume supplies). It's sth that the JAP AI fails to understand (patrolling its home waters while fighting... China...) and that's why it runs out of fuel in no time (supply bugs don't help, of course). Therefore, there is no real reason to "disband" the old subs, as they can be kept in ports and serve as potential replacements for the more modern u-boots. Alternatively, they can be upgraded to newer designs.
 
21. METZ OCTOBER

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Iraq falls on the 8th, but the Iraqis continue to fight a losing battle for French Syria. As of the end of the month, the French themselves are pulling out of Aleppo. Allied presence in Africa is thinning and it may soon be time to unleash Ethiopia. Portugal joins the Axis on the 12th. Research on sonar and strategic air command is complete; their research capacity is diverted to further development of the strategic bomber program.

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On the 9th, the French Maginot province of Sarreguemines, taken by Germany but lost to the French, is retaken for Germany again. Metz has also fallen at last, after countless battles. The southern Maginot crumbles to Germany as well, leaving only Maginot Strasbourg and the provinces around it in French hands. The multinational southern advance has swept up to threaten Paris. On the 12th, three German divisions are briefly pocketed by the French, but they are rescued in short order (and even in the pocket, they were calmly fighting their way forward rather than to safety). On the 13th, the Belgians retake Antwerpen. German shatterings are recorded in Montiucon and Sarreguemines. After a disastrous battle, I am overproducing consumer goods.

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Top left: current submarine technology and research. Probably only engine research will continue as these complete. Top right: submarine engines. Looks like diesel horsepower is given first, followed by electric. The Type XXI was the first sub to make electric engines primary and diesels secondary. Note range and fuel consumption. Bottom: Victory conditions.

Reluctantly, I am phasing out Type II and Type VII U-boats completely. At the start of the month, 17 flotillas are disbanded, resulting in the reduction of UG Hans Pfitzner under von Stosch, UG Max Schmeling under Fanger, and UG Kurt Weill under Ciliax. Additionally, the following U-groups are completely dissolved: UG Robert Wagner under Dönitz, UG Lion Feuchtwanger under von Nordeck, UG Franz Stuck under Assmann, UG Ludwig Mies van der Rohe under Wolf, UG Christian Morgenstern under Lindau, UG George Grosz under Fricke, and UG Annette Kolb under Krause.

UG Stefan Zweig is withdrawn with disorganization to Casablanca, where it manages to actually rebase this time. Range readings from Casablanca indicated that neither Type IXs nor Type XXIs will be able to strike North America directly without ports even further west (Azores? Greenland? Bermuda?).

The XXIs in Kolberg set sail early, as U-boats appear to have been upgrading at sea so there's no point keeping them in port. UG Max Ernst under Backenköhler and UG Max Liebermann under Kummetz are deployed to Portugal on the 12th. UG Max Slevogt under Wurmbach and UG Max Bruch under Witzell are deployed to Iceland on the 19th to rule out the possibility of US trade with Scandinavia or the Baltics (though obviously they can reach the Soviets by the Pacific if the Japanese don't stop them).

UG Max Bruch
Would they really name a U-group after Max Bruch? Inconceivable. He was safely dead by the WWII era, but the Nazis banned his compositions anyway.

UG Max Slevogt
Would they really name a U-group after Max Slevogt? Dubious. Though he did not live to see the Nazis come to power and thus could not object personally, and though he was chosen as an official government painter of the Great War, his Impressionist style and politically unacceptable friends would be problematic.

UG Max Liebermann
Would they really name a U-group after Max Liebermann? Never happen. Apart from being an Impressionist, this painter lived just long enough to meet and loathe the Nazi movement.

UG Max Ernst
Would they really name a U-group after Max Ernst? There isn't even a long shot. Ernst was a Dadaist, arrested by the French and Germans alike. He later fled Europe entirely, returning from the United States only well after the war's end.

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Sinkings:
Belgium: six merchants and six escorts.
France: 10 merchants.
USA: 17 merchants and six escorts.
Britain: 56 merchants.
TOTAL: 89 merchants and 12 escorts for 4.4 million merchant tons.

Baltasar, as detailed previously, Nationalist Spain is being influenced by the Allies and currently not eligible for Axis membership, although it's close. They are additionally disgruntled by Italy's usurpation of Valencia during the Spanish Civil War. I still hope to get them into the Axis diplomatically in due course, and I am sure the fall of France will help. My new artillery will be attached to existing triple-infantry divisions (I see double artillery as too fragile for what is sure to be a slugfest in the east). Facilities across the board are being upgraded in Poland, particularly fortifications along the frontier.

Cybvep, I can't claim direct knowledge of what's going on under the hood, but the UI is distressingly clear that fuel is still being burned in port. However, the information provided by the game on fuel is not consistent. I'm listed as trading away a considerable amount of fuel even though I have no such active trades (is this because I'm fueling foreign units in areas I control?). The pie charts disagree with each other as well, with the All Units Fuel Consumption pie claiming 100 naval fuel use and the Naval Units Fuel Consumption pie putting it closer to 40.
 
22. ALEPPO NOVEMBER

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French Syria in the process of collapse.

Persians occupy Aleppo on the 13th. The Italians are more tentative and the French have concentrated in Beirut. The Japanese have captured Mandalay. Interception tactics have advanced and research continues. Germany begins to influence Axis-leaning Saudi Arabia with an eye to taking Oman, Yemen, and various colonies.

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On the 7th, the French retake Colmar. On the 13th, the Belgians retake Antwerpen. On the 18th, a French division is encircled at Langres and attacked by a Yugoslavian division. On the 21st, the French retake Metz. On the 25th, a multinational, multidirectional assault cracks the Langres pocket and the French division surrenders. On the 28th, Metz is retaken by German forces, and Lunéville falls, finally pocketing the remaining Allied Maginot. As of the end of the month, the pocket appears decisive.

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Japan advances from Rangoon.

Sinkings:
Britain: 48 merchants
USA: 25 merchants and two escorts
TOTAL: 73 merchants and two escorts for 3.6 million merchant tons.

UG Engelbert Humperdinck has been withdrawn to Wilhelmshaven with serious damage. It was operating in the English Channel under Fuchs. The damage may have been caused by the heavy escorts in the last few months (although they seem to have run out again now).

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Advances have been made in submarine hulls, submarine AA, and submarine engines. Engine research continues, with other research redirected to strategic bombers. I may take direct control of the air arm after the land war in the west concludes. New U-boats are advanced enough to be considered Type 201s, a postwar design from 1962 (non-nuclear, though). Anticipating the replacement of IXs for North American raiding purposes, I have ordered six 201 flotillas intended to operate from Portugal and Casablanca.

One technology I wish I could develop is something I've dubbed the "sinksign decoy." When a submerged U-boat was destroyed, surface ships and aircraft had to infer the destruction from debris. Commonly they would observe an oil slick, pieces of wood, and body parts, all floating to the surface after an underwater explosion. So why not equip U-boats with an ejectable capsule that explodes loudly and distributes oil and trinkets? For a particularly Gravity's Rainbow approach, a crewman could be loaded into the capsule before ejection to supply the body parts.
 
23. STRASBOURG DECEMBER

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On the 22nd, German forces retake Antwerpen. Heavy Axis advances through Verdun and surrounding areas. The Maginot pocket is thoroughly isolated and aggressively reduced, but at least six divisions still survive and ably defend themselves. There must be a supply reserve in Strasbourg, but all the same, they have no hope of linking up with the vanishing Allied line. Toulouse is extremely threatened. I'm hoping to capture the surprisingly substantial (estimated 11,000) Belgian fuel reserves soon; they are probably mostly in Bruxelles. British energy reserves are below 19,000 and I suspect they are slowing the decline via deals with neutrals.

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India, the new face of the peripheral front.

Beirut has fallen and the French are packed into the coastal provinces immediately west of Aleppo, making a last stand. They are strongly surrounded by Italian and Persian concentrations, but the attack remains delayed. Possibly they hope to induce supply shortage. The Japanese are approaching India by land from the east, and the Persians continue to advance against scant British and Nepalese defense. A British unit has retaken Indore, but not stayed to defend it.

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Detail of the isolation of the Strasbourg Maginot Pocket. Supplies have yet to run out, but luck certainly has.

Sinkings:
France: 10 merchants and one escort.
USA: 20 merchants.
Britain: 24 merchants.
TOTAL: 54 merchants and one escort for 2.7 million merchant tons.

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Exhausted defenders in Belgium.

New large bombs have been developed for the strategic bombers. This research continues. The artillery has been attached to the Eastern Front and more is in development. Near-future research projects include artillery modernization, new interceptors, and anything that can help the fuel situation. Only two techs are being researched at time penalty now: submarine engines and acoustic torpedoes.
 
24. BRUXELLES JANUARY

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Two German panzer divisions and two German infantry divisions are now adjacent to Paris.

On the very first day of 1941, the Soviets annex the Baltics. Hey, maybe that's all they want. von Epp extends his line north in response, although the southern end is still ugly because of Hungarian-occupied Poland. On the 9th, Middelburg is retaken by German forces, only to be lost again on the 24th as the struggle for Bruxelles rages and Belgium crumples under a new front. Brugge, too, briefly changes hands on the 16th. On the 27th, Bruxelles falls to a German advance and is found to contain 12,483 units of fuel. Toulouse is occupied by an international Axis group.

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Large fuel tank research (for strategic bombers) and four-engine airframe research (also for strategic bombers) are completed and continued. Trade interdiction doctrine and submarine crew training both advance; those projects are discontinued and their leadership diverted to new guns for fighters and strategic bombers.

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Ethiopia joins the war on the 17th and begins taking French- and British-held Africa. Together with Italy and Saudi Arabia, it will hopefully claim complete control of the Suez for the Axis. French Syria is conquered at last and the French and Persians are reshuffling for new deployments. The Persians have stationed some border units opposite the Soviets, whose defensive line looks complete and endless. Persia has taken part of Nepal, but not the important part. The Japanese have taken Chittagong.

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The isolated Strasbourg Maginot Pocket has been reduced to a single province (that isn't even Strasbourg). These are the six divisions at stake.

Sinkings:
France: nine merchants.
Belgium: 10 merchants and one escort.
USA: 24 merchants.
Britain: 45 merchants.
TOTAL: 88 merchants and one escort for 4.4 million merchant tons.
 
25. THE FALL OF FRANCE, FEBRUARY/MARCH/APRIL 1941

The front ground onward in the spring (with shatterings in Royan and Dunkerque), and cities fell. On February 27th, Lille was taken, and on March 10th, Paris was occupied too. The French did not surrender until April 3rd, the day after a French attempt to retake Dunkerque with a single division of amphibious (or at least trying) light armor was repulsed. The same day, Yunnan joined the Axis.

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What you see is the chaotic situation immediately after the French surrender. Vichy France is there, but it's not Axis even in name. For a few days the victory conditions say Vichy France is Axis, but then they correct themselves. Italy has taken half the Channel coast and all the western ports, which is fine with me as I can still base submarines there. They also have Dunkerque and Le Havre even though they are not contiguous with the rest of the "Italian" gains. The Balkans are going to have to live with a Japan-in-WWI situation where they don't get anything. A grave injustice, particularly to Hungary.

The peculiar slashes of red territory in western France are BLOOOOOOD! No, not really, because if you could see blood on this map it would all be in Belgium. For real, the weird red streaks are caused by Allied units under nominal British command standing around newly not-Allied France with their thumbs up their asses. It takes three weeks of continued operations to mop them up (but where thumbs have been in asses, cleaning is essential). Many divisions are destroyed in detail throughout western and northern France. Those that remain are hounded north, to Carentan, and smashed against the coast. I have no clue how many Allied divisions are destroyed, but I'm guessing 50 at the very least.

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And you thought your game's postwar boundaries were ugly.

USA manpower is down to 39. UK energy reserves are now around 8,500. The Axis controls 50.3% of the victory points. The Maginot Line is essentially no more thanks to the "Maginot forts damaged" event. (After two years of fighting, now they're damaged.) The whole Axis coalition on the Western Front is now streaming east. Why are they streaming east? Because the Soviets mobilized on April 11th. The Warsaw East defensive command has been merged into Rommel's theater and von Epp given a holiday yet again. On April 25th the United States attempts a quixotic landing at Dunkerque with a single mountaineer division, perhaps because I have killed all their marines.

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The Japanese have taken Calcutta. The Persians, now backed up by Italians, continue to advance. Soon their fronts will join. (Your Persian mama's so fat, her country name goes in northern India.)

Saudi Arabia joins the Axis on April 25th. Between the Saudis, the Ethiopians, and the Italians, controlling the Suez will only be a matter of capturing Port Sudan and invading Allied Yemen. The Ethiopians are moving very nicely against British holdings in Africa. Japanese-occupied French Indochina is just plain kept, by the way. They don't give a fuck about Vichy France. (Although, mysteriously, there is still an inland rump French Indochina that the Japanese didn't bother to invade. Picky occupiers, the Japanese. Borneo is still three colors.) Still can't believe the Italians handed back Casablanca.

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It's about time for one of these. The Americas have been omitted because they are boring.

In preparation for experimental deployments closer to the Americas than ever before, U-groups are shuffled so that all of the Type XXIs can rebase to the Azores (UG Max Bruch, UG Max Slevogt, UG Max Ernst, UG Max Liebermann). Due to Vichy France's non-inclusion in the Axis (I get what they're trying to model with that, though, and it's not really inaccurate, just inconvenient), UG Stefan Zweig (Type IX) can no longer base in Casablanca. Starving for fuel and supplies, travelling under extreme fuel discipline, it temporarily rebases in Dieppe to recover organization and materiel.

Sinkings, February/March/April 1941:
USA: 22 merchants and two escorts.
France: 29 merchants and one escort.
Britain: 67 merchants.
TOTAL: 118 merchants and three escorts for 5.9 million merchant tons.
Monthly average: 39 merchants and one escort for 1.9 million merchant tons.

Research projects completed: infantry light artillery, infantry support weapons, interception tactics, strategic bombardment tactics, large bomb, oil refining, heavy bomber pilot training, radar, strategic bomber armament, large fuel tank, small arms, mass assault

Research projects begun: medium tank reliability, artillery carriage and sights, artillery barrel and ammunition, medium tank armor, fighter targeting focus, coal-oil conversion, encryption machine

This is very definitely the end of one phase of the war and the start of another. Hostilities with the Soviets look inevitable. North America remains Allied and untouched. Britain is interdicted but not defeated. Turkey and Switzerland may require invasion, and there's an outside chance that Spain will too. The British retain control of Malta and Cyprus (okay, these aren't going in order of ascending alarmingness).

The different needs of the new war demand several things.

1. The preparation of transports for Sealion, should it become necessary, in time for the 1943 battleships to sail for invasion as soon as they are ready (including max org).

2. The continued fortification and augmentation of the eastern front, hopefully to include doing something about that stupid Hungarian Poland gap.

3. Direct player control (that's me) of the air arm and a newly coordinated bombing campaign in the British Isles, moving to the Soviet Union should Britain surrender or (after time has been allowed for results to manifest) appear incapable of being driven to surrender through bombing.

4. Whatever U-boat attacks on the shipping of the Americas as are possible, despite the short submarine ranges of HoI3. Submarine engine research continues. I am considering bringing the Danes into the Axis should it become an option.

5. Speaking of which. Continued diplomatic attentions to key countries, notably Turkey, Spain, and Scandinavia as a whole. Axis presence in Scandinavia as soon as possible, preferably by an invitation to Sweden.

6. Further research into basic ground effectiveness, including armor, artillery, and infantry. Further research into basic air effectiveness, in our case interceptors and strategic bombers.

7. Hoping like hell that our allies can deliver in general.

8. Last-chance Soviet non-attack? Pretty please?
 
21. METZ OCTOBER


Cybvep, I can't claim direct knowledge of what's going on under the hood, but the UI is distressingly clear that fuel is still being burned in port. However, the information provided by the game on fuel is not consistent. I'm listed as trading away a considerable amount of fuel even though I have no such active trades (is this because I'm fueling foreign units in areas I control?). The pie charts disagree with each other as well, with the All Units Fuel Consumption pie claiming 100 naval fuel use and the Naval Units Fuel Consumption pie putting it closer to 40.

If the fuel usage doesn't match up and presumably what happens is that fuel is being convoyed out. It may be that for whatever reason the convoy system starts a fuel/supply convoy route towards some port, presumably to help in augmenting the land supply network to keep frontlines supplied, has happened for me in a soviet game, where I used heavily mechanized army to attack from vladivostok to manchuria (DOH! only mountains there, should have taken the Mongolian starting area like historically I guess) I had some weird supply convoys from a far eastern Siberian port, into vladivostok, instead of all supply going through land. I don't think I was even encircled in that case. This isn't exactly relevant I guess, but it would explain the, sometimes radical, loss of fuel from the actual fuel stokpiles in Berlin, its easily enough checked by the supply mapmode, or naval mapmode, which shows all the convoy routes; fuel/supply and resource trades.

Looks like India is f****d :D

US-UK trade seems to go primarily through Boston and southern English ports. But I guess the end stations and convoy path could change if the convoy gets destroyed.
 
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Not sure if this AAR is dead or not, but I wanted to stop by and say how awesome this concept and this AAR were/are. Great stuff!
 
Thanks for the kind words, Avindian, but I think it's time to wind this one down. Half the Battle of the Atlantic (against the British) is won but pointlessly so, and the other half (against the Americans) is more or less impossible in the game as it currently stands. Even a comprehensive examination of changes to the game that might help is rather futile, as For the Motherland and Dies Irae: Götterdämmerung are already slated to overhaul U-boats.

I regret entering the competition. I believe this AAR would have turned out better and been easier to write had I done it on my own terms and not cut it to fit the fickle contest.

Furthermore, a strategic bombing campaign has nothing to do with Dönitz or U-boats and seeing it through would add little to the bigger picture. So with these things in mind, I'm going to close with a handful of ideas for refining the HoI3 submarine game (bearing in mind, of course, that FTM/DI:G will do other things and render all this irrelevant and obsolete). These have been rigorously selected for simplicity, abstraction, and ease of comprehension.

1. A dud rate which multiplies submarine Sea Attack and Convoy Attack by a number between 1 and nearly 0. This number is primarily influenced by national level of submarine practical, but the introduction of a new torpedo technology will cause a brief spike in duds. Historically, dud torpedoes were a huge problem for the Germans and the Americans alike, with torpedoes being too complicated and expensive and dangerous to test rigorously in peacetime (even, in Germany's case, when planning to go to war). Angry submarine skippers fought with their navies over the effectiveness of the torpedoes and only got defects corrected well into the war. Although for HoI3 purposes it makes sense to lump all these defects under the word "dud," among the most critical cases were run-unders (torpedoes running below their set depth and missing their targets) and guidance failures (torpedoes failing to stay on course, sometimes even circling around and hitting the sub that fired them). More classic dud situations in which the explosive failed to trigger were also a factor; magnetic triggering was unreliable the world over, and for the Americans, even the impact device was a mess, with specific design problems that disinclined it to explode from direct, 90-degree impacts (which were supposed to be the most reliable attack setup). Given the mechanical unreliability of early-war submarines, spontaneous breakdown damage should also be a possibility, perhaps tied to a rare low-practical-linked event and representing only the worst catastrophes (although total failures of American HOR engines were routine; they tore the teeth off their own gears).

2. An increase to submarine Sea Attack. A general increase has been justified previously in this AAR. More specifically, a Magnetic Exploder yes/no technology ought to dramatically boost Sea Attack. Magnetic torpedo triggers were developed specifically to allow a submarine-fired torpedo to bypass the waterline armor belt present on warships and explode under the fragile, less-protected keel. The precise goal of this project was to make submarines a more viable anti-warship weapon. It was, however, more difficult than expected and should be a challenging research item whose accomplishment reflects not the earliest implementations (which were present at the start of the war but ineffective), but a fully operational magnetic exploder that really does make torpedoes more effective against armored vessels. (It should still spike the dud rate as normal to reflect the usual teething problems of a new piece of torpedo technology.)

3. Submarines should suffer a visibility penalty in coastal waters, and possibly an attack penalty too. This reflects both the dangers of a coastal shelf, which limits submarine submerge depth, and the potential for refloating operations to recover ships lost to submarine attacks in shallow waters.

4. Submarine ranges should be extended, either just by bumping the numbers upward (to about double what they are now) or by throwing in a U-tanker/sub-tender yes/no technology. Such a technology should be easily developed, retrofittable, cheap, and non-secret. Any flotilla with "U-tanker/sub-tender: yes" has its range doubled from stock and its fuel requirements increased slightly. This makes Operation Drumbeat possible (and probably adds a measure of sanity to American submarine activity in the Pacific, but I don't know firsthand what that's like now, so I can't say for sure).

5. I'd like to see more recognition of the importance of radio policies to submarine effectiveness. Possibly there could be doctrines or even doctrine paths that range between seriously compromising Visibility and Convoy Attack in exchange for detailed scouting reports and seriously compromising intelligence-gathering in exchange for serious radio silence and deeply obfuscated radio orders (possibly incorporating an order delay that makes submarines slower to respond). Historical navies were so concerned about these issues that they had, for example, specific policies designed to prevent the enemy from guessing anything about a transmission based on its word lengths. Submarine effectiveness, particularly against convoys, has a major informational component; the Germans didn't even realize how hamstrung they were by Allied radio direction-finding technology, but it hugely cut convoy losses. A submarine would make a contact report before attacking, and just like that, the convoy would turn away and avoid contact.

6. An explicit understanding of a handful of submarine abstractions. There should be official designations of tonnage, if not number of ships (which would have varied historically), per "merchant flotilla," and convoy attack popups should list kills in tons. It should be assumed that any given submarine flotilla in the ocean represents about half of the unit's strength, with the other half cycling to and from port (submarine patrols never lasted longer than three months). This might justify a reduction in stats, but should also prevent a submarine flotilla from being wiped out in a single naval battle, as half the boats in it are simply not there.

7. A secret project to create a faster, more-time-submerged submarine engine that runs on hydrogen peroxide or oxygen fuel. This would be a yes/no with a considerable speed boost and modest improvements to attack and visibility, possibly at the cost of an even more fragile boat (due to volatile fuels). The Germans actually had a working hydrogen peroxide prototype; submerged, it ran half again as fast as a comparable diesel/electric and did not have battery limitations crippling its ability to move underwater, gains which would have allowed it to catch up to most fast convoys and task forces while remaining concealed. Obviously the rollout of hydrogen peroxide or oxygen boats should be accompanied by a hearty pulse of mechanical failure event chance. Given the fundamental differences in design, this technology should be baked into the hull, so that diesel/electrics cannot be retrofitted for hydrogen peroxide or oxygen. Engine upgrades should still function as normal, representing refinement of mechanical engineering rather than different methods of power generation or different types of fuel.

8. A "crew kill" doctrine which has additional effects on enemy manpower from ship sinkings, but carries a steep diplomatic disadvantage. Various navies flirted with the idea of deliberately exterminating the crews of lost enemy ships as a matter of policy, and although none adopted it, they could have. The Americans massacred Japanese crews from time to time. Certain British orders related to capturing intelligence information (Enigma machines, secret papers) from U-boats actually did specifically order sailors to fire on surrendered crews in some circumstances. By the same token, there might be room for rigid rescue doctrines that placed submarines in greater peril but had diplomatic advantages. Dönitz twice ordered U-boats to stop assisting distressed Allied crews at risk to themselves, yet still they sometimes did. One captain actually tried to organize a local truce and joint rescue operation off the coast of Africa (which didn't work). The catch is that these efforts didn't really do that much diplomatically for Germany; the British were established masters of international wartime propaganda and could paint every U-boat action as an atrocity regardless.

9. Convoy loopholes in general should be closed. If lend-lease teleports supplies across the ocean, it shouldn't do that. If a successful convoy-raiding campaign can't contribute to the surrender of a blockaded nation, it ought to be able to. If submarines can't attack neutral-flagged ships carrying war materiel (everything HoI3 models) to the enemy, that absolutely needs to be fixed, and not just for Unrestricted Submarine Warfare. Even the strictest visit-and-search rules permit action against neutrals carrying contraband. That's the whole reason they board and inspect neutrals. Also, licensing technologies should be harder at best if the countries involved have no open lines of trade. It's all very well for the UK to license production of American tank destroyers, but if nothing Allied can make it across the Atlantic, how exactly is that going to work? You can't telegraph blueprints and specimen parts and engineering experts. It would shift from a routine transport operation to a daring (and risky) feat of espionage.

10. It would be nice if submarines had a "support partisans" mission based on their historical roles doing so. American submarines in particular supplied, reinforced, and relieved guerrillas behind Japanese lines. They might also benefit from an "espionage" mission to support spy placement, reflecting the many times German submarines attempted to land spies in Allied territory, but this is less essential as the spies were typically caught immediately. Then again, perhaps with better radio security...

11. I'd like to see better presentation of information related to convoy raiding, perhaps a ledger page which lists convoy sinkings (as is already done for warships). The naval map should pip ports which have lost convoys recently and display further information on mouseover (e.g., "Dover has lost 2 merchant flotillas this month: Dover-Halifax, Boston-Dover").

12. You should be able to find out information about convoys through espionage. This would be among a historical Germany's most urgent espionage priorities. It would also have helped American efforts immensely, revealing a concentration of Japanese shipping routes passing through the Luzon Strait. Intelligence services should provide their best guesses at enemy convoy routes on the naval map, perhaps as dashed lines to distinguish them from your own.

13. Convoy routes should attempt to change to avoid known dangerous sea zones, leading to a war of maneuver on the high seas. Obviously this would have an impact on time taken, supplies transported, fuel used, ships required, etc. This is perhaps the HoI3 equivalent of the cost of convoying, which as a rule of thumb was contemporaneously estimated at a third again the burden of peacetime transport.

14. I am not sure whether ASW is potent enough. ASW aircraft, as technology develops, should be a pretty darn powerful force, to the extent that a submarine power ought to try to deploy into gaps in air coverage (historically, Germans in the mid-Atlantic).

15. Harsh weather should have brutal effects on submarines, particularly navigationally. With poorer surfaced deck stability, and not being surfaced all the time, star-and-compass navigation was difficult for subs in extreme conditions. In practice, it wasn't clear to me that weather was making much of a difference one way or the other.

16. Some of the torpedo tech names could stand to be tweaked. The name of an acoustic torpedo should not be used for a non-acoustic upgrade.

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U-11, a Type IIB retired as a museum ship. In this game, it was probably one of Assmann's during his early-war rampage at the mouth of the Thames. My thanks to Soviet Germany for graciously exhibiting it postwar.

I have no current plans for future AARs, but I have been thinking tentatively about an unorthodox defense of France, both historically precedented and unlike any existing AAR I am aware of (no, it does not involve submarines).

PS - Laurwin, if fuel was simply being transported between owned provinces, it wouldn't be leaving the national stockpile. And it couldn't have been keeping a naval convoy running, because I had manually disabled all naval convoys. Stettin was the last.
 
I'm sad that this AAR has ended; it was a great read. Fine work, umg!

As I said before, I always wanted to try this but never have for the same reason, it seems, this AAR concluded: a "tonnage war" is infeasible within the economic mechanics of the game. As you said, "If a successful convoy-raiding campaign can't contribute to the surrender of a blockaded nation, it ought to be able to." I think so, too! And I hope, as you do, this aspect of the game is further expanded upon (I want to be able to bring Japan's war economy to a grinding halt with submarines!)

Anyway, thank you for an informative, entertaining AAR. It was a pleasure to read!