Chapter 45: Analysis of Operation Setting Sun
To a casual reader, the accounts of Unternehmen Abendsonne may appear to be one-sided. That assumption couldn't be further from the truth. The entire operation was a gamble, one which paid off better than expected. After a careful review of the facts, the reason the Reich succeeded as well as it did lay not with the Reich's superiority in battle, but Japan's increasingly dire circumstances. Japan's example of failing to quickly secure its objectives when conducting an overseas invasion against a stronger opponent, and it's ability to continue to fight in the face of overwhelming odds offered valuable lessons to Hitler and the rest of the NSDAP leadership. These lessons would later be used against the United Nations - the global alliance created by the United States of America.
The first lesson to come from the invasion was one that was already familiar to the Reich: create a large distraction, something the enemy cannot ignore. This tactic was successfully employed during the initial stages of Unternehmen Seelöwe, when the Kriegsmarine's I. Marinekorps landed in Scotland only to retreat after Armee 1 landed in England. In the case of Unternehmen Abendsonne, China served as the distraction. Japan could not, under any circumstances both internally and internationally, allow itself to admit defeat. Suing for peace would have ended the current administration led by the Japanese Emperor and his nobles, as well as greatly reducing Japan's international prestige. The Asian custom of "saving face" ultimately led to Japan committing everything it had to its current conflict. In any normal situation this would make sense, as the United States, Japan's rival, was dominated by isolationist policies, and the Europeans were fighting amongst themselves at the time. To the Japanese leadership, the possibility of Germany creating a navy powerful enough to destroy the UK and reach Japan itself was as likely as watching pigs fly. Even if Germany had built a powerful navy, Japan's leaders felt that, despite the massive amount of military aid Germany provided China, Germany would be too distracted with the remnants of the Soviet Union to attempt overseas operations. In addition, the common belief amongst Japanese military leaders was that Germany would aid China on the ground, where the mighty Heer, the Reich's greatest asset, could be used at its maximum potential. Not once did Japan's government consider a German invasion.
This kind of thinking could very well be applied to the UN. At the time of Japan's surrender, the UN consisted of the 4 former Commonwealth nations, plus the US and the majority of Central and South America. While South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand could easily be dealt with with the Reich's military, the Americas offered a much more difficult challenge. The main lesson learned from both of the Reich's amphibious operations would be applied: create a distraction that the enemy could not ignore.
The USA becomes the world's only superpower during the invasion; its armed forces are the most numerous, and its industrial capacity is the greatest in the world
The second lesson lay with naval tactics. The Kriegsmarine was created with the sole purpose of wresting control of the sea from the enemy. At no point was maintaining such control considered. Such was the weak point of the Kriegsmarine; it could not protect supply convoys heading towards the conquered beachheads. During Unternehmen Seelöwe, this weakness was not exploited by the Allies, and any lost German supply ships were easily replaced. However, the Imperial Japanese Navy took full advantage of the fact that the Kriegsmarine was operating far from its home waters. During stages 1 and 2 of the invasion the Reich was supplied by China, and its supply convoys were only beginning the long trek from Sevastopol to captured Japanese ports. However, during stage 3 of the invasion the IJN had finally found the Reich's supply routes and sunk a massive amount of unprotected shipping, totaling at 90 lost German convoys, averaging at 15 per week, which was much higher than the Reich's 10 per week average against the UK. Since the USA has the largest navy on Earth, any invasion of the Americas requires a very large convoy reserve, possibly numbering in the thousands of ships in order to properly supply the Reich's mechanized invasions and accommodate the convoy attrition the Reich knows will occur.
The IJN Akagi, whose design the KMS Graf Zeppelin and KMS Peter Strasser were based on, is sinking after being struck by a torpedo
The third lesson also deals with naval tactics, albeit more direct ones. Admiral Raeder and Hitler initially expected to lose many ships, due to the IJN's perceived superiority. The fact that not a single ship was lost baffled the Reich's leaders, until news arrived that the IJN had run out of fuel. The operation also confirmed that carriers would decide the fate of future naval engagements, as shown by the table below listing IJN ships sunk by the Kriegsmarine. Overwhelmingly, the Reich's carriers sunk more tonnage than the battleships, confirming once and for all that the new approach of building carrier fleets was the correct one. Since the USN was known to favor carriers over battleships, just like the IJN, a new focus on improving the Reich's naval aviation arm was made, in order to ensure better performance against the USN.
IJN ships sunk during Unternehmen Abendsonne; no Kriegsmarine ships were lost during the operation
And so, a plan to destroy the UN, which was, despite the Reich's many great achievements, still the most powerful alliance in existence began. While at this point the plan was still in its beginning stages, three things were certain to be included: 1) A massive distraction attack the UN cannot ignore, 2) A massive buildup of supply ships and destroyer escorts, and 3) a massive buildup of carrier task forces.
However, before the plan could be put into motion, China had to consolidate its position amongst the warlords and Manchukuo, then aid the Reich in the conquest of the Soviet Union rump state. The Soviet Union could not be allowed to exist if the Reich was to destroy the remnants of capitalism.
The state of the world after Japan's surrender
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Whew, took longer to finish this than I thought. I've been pretty busy at work lately and didn't have a lot of free time until now. Anyway, I managed to figure out how to force Manchukuo to return Japan's expeditionary forces, but it took a long time to return everything. Next up, the death of the Bolshevik haven and the Chinese Unification
@New posters: Since there are several of you, I decided to make one big welcome! I'm glad you enjoy the AAR! Despite my slow rate of posting lately, this AAR isn't dead, as I have too many things to finish before I call it quits