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I think I'll wait and see if anybody else wants to throw in a guess before I reveal my former nation . . . I'll be back in 13-ish hours to check back in.
Yeah, it's really just pure guessing. All we see is which nations you aren't. We don't even know the year (some nations would have a harder time forming it earlier).
I'll say Navarra, though I'm pretty sure it was either Portugal or Castile (but people already said these, so I'll go with Navarra ).
You colonized all of South America and the Caribbeans, Italy is still intact and France doesn't own Calais, so you have to be Iberian (with the exception of Aragon otherwise you'd also have chucks of Italy)!