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Well in my Greece game i have been setting tariffs and taxes continually high and the trend was the growth of farmer pops once i put negative tariffs the trend inverted thats pretty strong evidence in my view
It's a good first basis for a conjecture. But you'll need more countries, more runs, and proper control groups to know for sure.
 
The big problem with tariffs in this game is you can't set them for a specific material/good. So, if you're country doesn't have any coal but you have a cement factory increasing tariffs will raise the imported coal cost. Inversely, negative tariffs will make the imported coal cheaper but also imported cement. It's my biggest gripe with the V2 economy, and I'm afraid we'll have to wait for an expansion for any change.

Currently there is little point to tariffs unless your country makes the input materials/goods. So, if your country makes coal and you have a cement factory then raising tariffs will protect your domestic cement industry without making input costs more expensive for the factory.
 
The big problem with tariffs in this game is you can't set them for a specific material/good. So, if you're country doesn't have any coal but you have a cement factory increasing tariffs will raise the imported coal cost. Inversely, negative tariffs will make the imported coal cheaper but also imported cement. It's my biggest gripe with the V2 economy, and I'm afraid we'll have to wait for an expansion for any change.

That´s not an issue, because your nationals will first buy cement from your internal market
 
Or we could look at the code, which shows that POPs with good needs fulfillment are more likely to promote - and since farmers can promote to craftsmen, and probably will, that's likely to influence the number of craftsmen you have when subsidizing...

How the factories are doing, conversely, has nothing whatsoever to do with the POPs logic about becoming craftsmen. They don't check. They just decide3 'I am going to promote', then role on a weight table to see what class they promote to. Since the only checks they do for 'shall I become a craftsman' are 'is there work for craftsmen?', 'are craftsmen unemployed?' and 'am I in a colony?', they clearly don't give a hoot about how well the factories do.

As for tariffs vs subsidies - it's just a sales tax, no other effect. As near as we can tell, it effects your own internal produce as well, as POPs don't bother to check what the cheapest goods are - they buy on the prestige order, with the highest countries selling and buying first.
 
Or we could look at the code, which shows that POPs with good needs fulfillment are more likely to promote - and since farmers can promote to craftsmen, and probably will, that's likely to influence the number of craftsmen you have when subsidizing...

How the factories are doing, conversely, has nothing whatsoever to do with the POPs logic about becoming craftsmen. They don't check. They just decide3 'I am going to promote', then role on a weight table to see what class they promote to. Since the only checks they do for 'shall I become a craftsman' are 'is there work for craftsmen?', 'are craftsmen unemployed?' and 'am I in a colony?', they clearly don't give a hoot about how well the factories do.

As for tariffs vs subsidies - it's just a sales tax, no other effect. As near as we can tell, it effects your own internal produce as well, as POPs don't bother to check what the cheapest goods are - they buy on the prestige order, with the highest countries selling and buying first.

I´d swear I read in the strategy guide that POPs would promote more to occupations which are doing well.
 
I´d swear I read in the strategy guide that POPs would promote more to occupations which are doing well.
I believe there is a bonus to promotion if the target POP get's all their luxury goods (="doing well").
 
There's not, unless it's hidden in the hardcode; but extensive testing while modding has shown that there quite simply isn't. You can check this with the VRRP and DVG teams as well - in the vanilla code, there's no such checks on promotion target.

As for staying craftsmen - the better luxuries fulfillment means that craftsmen promote more rapidly as well. Which ironically means that the best way to get craftsmen is if RGO goods are in high demand and factory goods aren't...