Chapter 5: The Invasion of Kars
January 10, 1842: Ottoman diplomats in Prussia request an alliance with Prussia to stop Russian aggression. They accept.
I tested this later to see what influenced the odds. Essentially, if someone declares war on you, pause and immediately look for alliances before they mobilize. If you wait until after they mobilize, they'll compare their army size to your enemy's mobilized army size, which drops your chances. In this case, if I had waited for the mobilization, the chance would have been Very Unlikely.
January 17: Russia mobilizes, more than doubling their army size. The Ottomans do not, having only 2 brigades to mobilize. However, at the outset of war, all available soldiers were built. Greece, which is in our SOI but not allied yet, is asked to ally - they accept.
January 25: France mobilizes over 100 divisions.
January 31: Prussia joins the war. Since Russia's most populous regions are in the north, this should divert much of their army. Oddly, Prussia chooses not to mobilize. Bastards.
A map of the French mobilization. All they have to do is walk across Prussia - in typical AI fashion, ignoring attrition.
February 12: In the west, almost 21,000 Russian troops are sitting on a plain with low org. Hopefully, we can wipe this stack out. Our general bonus is negated by the river and dig in bonus, but we have 3x the org.
The battle is more successful than I expected! However, the Russians flee north to Iasi, which has 30K more Russians - who then march down to kick my ass. I switch to my best defensive general, only to get creamed in a battle that lasts through most of March.
Sitzkrieg.
While retreating from Galati to Braila, Russia opts (stupidly) to send 27000 men after me with no general. However, they get great rolls, negating the penalty from no general and the penalty for attacking a dug in army in a swamp.
May 4: An attempt to throw Russians out of Kars is "successful". I have forts almost complete in these provinces - I'd rather have them for myself rather than have them lost due to occupation, or completed only to fall into Russian hands.
May 23: A look in Prussia shows a furious battle between 25K Prussians and 52K Russians near Memel...and French armies marching through Austria en route to Prussia. Don't hurry on my account or anything.
May 28: Our naval base in Kuwait is complete. Not that I can do anything with it.
June 30: Ideological Thought is completed. Given that this war may be lengthy, and I may find wolves at my door, I go for Army Professionalism for a tactics boost. The next day I get 1 nice and 1 annoying invention (Authoritarianism: -.02 con in non-colonial, Political Religion: +10% reform desire).
August 2: Another battle to try and keep the Russians out ends up in a hollow victory. My one advantage is that I am far better about avoiding attrition than the Russians.
September 4: Russia tries again to take Tulea with no general, but this time I'm defending with a great general, rather than attacking across a river into a marsh.
September 9: Look! France is doing something...um...useful.
September 29: Russians are thrown out of Kars, but Ardahan falls to Russian occupation.
October 2: Constitutionalism is discovered, giving us our first +5% plurality boost.
October 27: The Russians fleeing from Kars were run down (by selecting a +speed general, then flipping to a +3 defense general the day before arrival), and I get my first wipeout of the war! (War score is now -15 (my favor)).
November 19: A quick look at the budget shows us 30,000 pounds in debt. Ow.
December 11: Russia makes a very, very stupid mistake.
December 21: Time for the chase! Since I'm fighting in allied territory, I can switch between +speed and +defense generals on the fly.
My new general kicks ass - I'll need him since I can't beat them to Galati...
...so I'll just beat them in Galati! This clears out the western front of enemy troops, so I can go about freeing Moldavia.
The rest of the war will be cake.