People had been talking about doing it for a while. Nice to see someone actually did it.
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People had been talking about doing it for a while. Nice to see someone actually did it.
We are 11 days in, have only 7 players left and have only seen one wolf. I would like to hears peoples' thoughts. I have my own and will post them later as I don't want to steer opinions.
Everyone should be able to come up with at least one complete sentence on each player left and their thoughts about the the set-up of the game as far as roles and such go.
Everyone should be able to come up with at least one complete sentence on each player left and their thoughts about the the set-up of the game as far as roles and such go.
I will do some analyzing and reread the thread tomorrow morning.
I don't want to do it now because I consumed a few beers and that is in general not helpful for analyzing.
I hope someone will update randakar's/Lord_D's summary vote count in the mean time.
AVN -
walrus - villager with seerish powers
sbr - the priest
Lord_D - cleared by Priestly/seerish powers scan several nights ago. May have been cursed and turned.
trespoe -
Raczynski - hunter, presumably good
Yakman -
So, if D hasn't been turned, and you believe that I'm not a wolf, that leaves 3 players who could be a wolf. And I believe there is only one left, with one wolf a pack, plus loads of cultists. I don't believe AVN is a wolf, based off of what I said yesterday, so I guess that kinda narrows it down, huh?
Edit: Also, if D (or me, or anyone for that matter...) was turned, that would leave 2 wolves
walrus - villager with seerish powers
sbr - the priest
Lord_D - cleared by Priestly/seerish powers scan several nights ago. May have been cursed and turned.
trespoe -
Raczynski - hunter, presumably good
Yakman -
So, if D hasn't been turned, and you believe that I'm not a wolf, that leaves 3 players who could be a wolf. And I believe there is only one left, with one wolf a pack, plus loads of cultists. I don't believe AVN is a wolf, based off of what I said yesterday, so I guess that kinda narrows it down, huh?
Edit: Also, if D (or me, or anyone for that matter...) was turned, that would leave 2 wolves
Game set-up: 1 priest, no seer, no sorcerer. 2 wolves, 6 cultists.
there could be another cultist, still. maybe 3 to each wolf plus an extra, floating cultist (it seems Eternaly_lost had a bunch of powers not shared with anyone else yet.) There could also be a turned wolf.
It basically falls to one of three people: Lord D, AVN, and Walrus.
AVN claims to had a priest scan he used on Lord D and came up villager.
Walrus claims he used his seer scan on Lord D and came up villager.
We know Walrus isn't a cultist.
Option A: Lord D is a wolf, Walrus lied and is also a baddie. Yet Walrus isn't a cultist. One could be turned, or maybe non-symmetrical pack set-up. This scenario is doubtful, too many lies and variables.
Option B: Walrus is a wolf. Possible, he may have had a seer scan he used on Lord D and mentioned this in order to gain credence with the JL.
Option C: AVN is a wolf. Possible, he also may have had a priest scan he used on Lord D and mentioned this to gain admittance to JL. Lord D could also be his cultist and he tried to delay any scan of Lord D. But this only delays the inevitable as Lord D will get scanned at some point.
So that leaves us with Walrus or AVN as the wolf. Looking back at the voting records, whenever one has been brought up in votes, the only people that have saved them have turned out to be villagers. Cultists haven't tried to save either one.
If you believe wolves to have a sense of honor, they could have tried to save a cultist. Both were involved in the tie Day 3 with late votes to tie jonti with Emperor Walter. On the outing/false outing with Steed, all of those who switched to sbr have been villagers with Lord D and Walrus as unknowns. AVN stayed with Steed, along with Jopi and the other cultists. On Day 7, Walrus helped lynch White Daimon as a cultist. On the tie that Walrus created with Ciryandor, Kriszo, and Jopi, if he was a wolf he saw a great chance to get rid of three people from the rival pack. Or he could just have wanted to see what happens since he voted with an hour left to vote. And that is all we have to go on.
I have no idea if anything made sense. I have a hard time putting my logic into words.
If we guess wrong today, we lynch the other tomorrow. Unless someone really thinks they can pull this off, or we have it very wrong, the wolf surrendering himself would be the honorable thing to do because he cannot win.
Unless we are really off here.
Unless we are really off here.
I mostly agree with your analysis and because I'm not the wolf it makes indeed most sense to go after walrus today.
But you don't mention racz and Yakman.
They can be wolves too.
Why don't you mention them in your analysis ?
I don't mention them because it is complicated.
edit: most relationships are.
see... Yakman isn't yakman, it's Yakwoman. And I and Racz (Yakzynski?) are Yakbabies (TWINS!) and I really think I need to go to sleep now.
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I don't mean to speak for trespoe, but he and I have been discussing things privately today.
As far as Rac goes he came out to dublish as a Hunter many days ago. I asked him to Hunt humancalc for me and he did. I can't picture any scenario where a baddie/Hunter would reveal themselves to the "JL" and then follow the "JL"'s bidding. If I were a baddie/Hunter in what must have seemed to be a strange pack set-up I would have stayed quiet and tried to get a 3 kill in one day shot (lynch an innocent, wolf hunt and Hunter hunt 2 more innocents) to get to or very close to parity.
I have no idea about Yakman. He is a riddle, wrapped in an enigma, wrapped in a Yak. He is not a cultist or a sorc. walrus and yourself, AVN, are the best lynching targets by quite a large margin as far as I can tell.
At this point the scenario that makes most sense is that walrus is a wolf. Putting Jopi in danger and then backing off and creating a three way tie would be a very reasonable thing for a lone wolf to do, assuming he was the last wolf in his pack.
Vote walrus
Official vote count, 10h 53min to deadline
walrus - 3 - Yakman, AVN, sbr
Yakman - 1 - Lord_D
not voted - 3 - trespoe, Raczynski, walrus
missed one vote - sbr, Raczynski
walrus - 3 - Yakman, AVN, sbr
Yakman - 1 - Lord_D
not voted - 3 - trespoe, Raczynski, walrus
missed one vote - sbr, Raczynski
Actually, who's to say Raczynski the hunter wasn't turned last night? There's no way we can be sure he's really a goodie!
I am not a wolf
Vote Yakman
for self preservation for now, but I think it's quite telling that Trespoes analysis doesn't mention Yakman, Raczynski or himself......
Vote Yakman
for self preservation for now, but I think it's quite telling that Trespoes analysis doesn't mention Yakman, Raczynski or himself......
The activity in this thread is most tragic.
A good indication of how bad we must be doing -_-
A good indication of how bad we must be doing -_-