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I don't think you'll get a big pocket in Kurland out of this. There just aren't many axis forces in the area. Otherwise, more hard infantry fighting. With the Wehrmacht putting panzer divisions in the front line, they're certainly in trouble. Not that they weren't before, but that's the worst use they can make of their main offensive arm, especially since they'll be exposed to the opening artillery barrages of an offensive. Which brings to mind, do I see an Artillery Division in one screenshot? How does that work out?
 
My god, is that a huge pocket I'm about to see forming north of Konigsberg? Goldap being hit could REALLY hurt them.

But, do you have the reserves to be able to strengthen the walls of the pocket there?
 
The border is so close....

yep, next post in this sector and the war enters the Reich ...

The grim slaughter of January and February - that sounds very encouraging. Onwards Soviet Guards! As Bogdanov told his Guards tankists, Soviet Guards do not surrender, do not die, but conquer! (having been a Guard in both the Imperial army pre-Revolution and a Soviet Guard.... like Rokosovsky, he was also imprisoned during the Purges)

there were quite a few in that situation. Gorbatov and Bagramian were others, a definite insight into the psychology of life under Stalinism ... that you fight, and not just because you have to, but bravely and intelligently for a regime that also threatened your very existence --- no wonder Stalin was paranoid.

The difference between the effectiveness of the German response in the Balkans and in the Baltics is striking: in the south, they threw you off balance and had you contemplating abandoning liberated Bulgaria. In the north, you kind of brushed them aside and now they're spent - and you're just getting started.

I imagine we'll see Königsberg burn soon. The assault into the Reich proper is getting underway...

the other difference is that on the Baltic sector, even having already removed 3 and 23 Armies I have a full corps (4-5 divisions) per province, so they can throw me off balance and back on the defense etc, but the sheer amount of firepower I have in some of those provinces is enough to inflict heavy losses. In the Balkans, there are key provinces held by cavalry divisions, or a light tank division etc.

But I looked at Augostow for just before the end (to check if any late German reinforcements had arrived) & while I've trashed 3 Panzer divisions, there are 6 of mine that need to stay in the rear and recover organisation (no new manpower though - we'll see a lot of my divisions in the 4-6,000 range soon enough). Key difference is its like the reverse of 1941, then they could see the occasional division chewed up and it didn't really harm their overall offensive, now they need everything in the front lines just to delay.

HI! Just wanted to say that you're doing an amazing job and congratulations to The Great Patriotic War for one year :D!

thank you ... and thanks for your first post. I hadn't realised this blessed thing had gone on for a year (& on checking its 2 months since I last even played HOI). I reckon it'll complete in December but that depends on how to break material up, work patterns and so on.

I think you will take Berlin BEFORE you take budapest, if the current pattern continue

I just possibly could, but partly for role playing, partly to let my supplies sort themselves out (as above, I have a lot of formations on the Berlin axis now), I halt the offensive more or less on the pre-war German-Polish border and use that time to resolve the Balkan campaign. If I recall, Budapest is the next capital to fall (though that might be Sofiya & Athens - not totally sure).

I don't think you'll get a big pocket in Kurland out of this. There just aren't many axis forces in the area. Otherwise, more hard infantry fighting. With the Wehrmacht putting panzer divisions in the front line, they're certainly in trouble. Not that they weren't before, but that's the worst use they can make of their main offensive arm, especially since they'll be exposed to the opening artillery barrages of an offensive. Which brings to mind, do I see an Artillery Division in one screenshot? How does that work out?

I get quite a lot actually, they keep on the offensive up at Leipaja and that seals their fate (one of the few outright mistakes I think the AI makes ... but very realistic with Hitler's no retreat orders). As a teaser, about 90,000 killed and 275,000 POWs - all this slogging through bog and marsh in winter really pays off come February.

In reality, using the Panzers as a fixed front line is madness but in game it worked very well back during Mars when a couple of provinces stacked up with Panzers broke up my offensive - but also meant come May they had no mobile reserves left.

Not sure about the Artillery Division - I'm using standard triangular divisions - most of the Guards formations have something attached (art, at, TD etc) but I don't pay that much attention to divisional structure to be honest (partly my gameplay style, partly because keeping stuff better organised is near impossible). The Guards see more action, so have higher experience in part as their higher morale and organisation means they recover quicker so are back in the line faster. I do sometimes switch support brigades for a purpose but thats rare.

My god, is that a huge pocket I'm about to see forming north of Konigsberg? Goldap being hit could REALLY hurt them.

But, do you have the reserves to be able to strengthen the walls of the pocket there?

In the end yes, but its a monumental tussle to finish them off and leaves me with an awful lot of shredded formations which is another reason why I halt the drive on Berlin. The terrain works in my favour - if it wasn't for the way the Baltic changes the shape of the battlefield, I'd have never got a decent pocket.
 
"As by the dead we love to sit": The Carpathian Campaign, December 1943

By the time the Soviet counterattack in late November had ended, the situation across the Carpathian region was a complex patchwork of salients and strongpoints held by each side. In particular, Kosice and Negresti Oas were ideal springboards to drive deeper into Hungary. This was, however, as clear to the Germans as it was to the Soviets and they were able to respond the quickest.



The result was that Kosice faced a sustained assault from 4 to 24 December and Negresti Oas from 8 to 21 December as the Germans sought to eliminate these threats and secure their defenses on the upper reaches of the Tisza.



A Soviet attack, using locally available forces at Moldava Nad Bodvou was quickly beaten off but had the effect of disrupting the German pressure on Kosice.

By the 10th, 3 Tank Army had completed a major redeployment. The screening of the Dneistr crossings at Dorohoi were handed over to 23 Army and the Soviet armour was concentrated around Uzhhorod.


(3 Tank Army organising for its offensive)

From this, 5 Tank Corps led an assault on Saraspatok and by 22 December had broken the German front, threatening the rear of their units engaged at Kosice.


(Soviet machine gun position at Kosice)

At the same time, elements of 26 Army threw the Germans back from Moldava Nad Bodvou by the 21st , but were unable to exploit their victory due to supply problems. Threatened with encirclement the Germans abandoned their Kosice offensive and redeployed to face the emerging Soviet threat, even as Kisvarda fell, giving the Soviets complete control of the upper Tisza and removing the last major barrier before the Hungarian Plain.



At the same time, it was becoming clear that the Baltic offensive was making slower progress than expected. Although Stavka remained unwilling to release 2 Tank Army for a deep incursion into Hungary it agreed that it could be used for a limited offensive on the Hungary-Slovakia border.

Unleashed, it quickly drove the Germans back at Nowy Targ and despite the set back at Brezno quickly gained the line of pre-war border with Slovakia with victories at Poprad and Zywiec.


(Soviet infantry in action at Poprad)

A second attempt at Brezno saw the town quickly taken on 18 December and a counterattack by 13 Panzer easily repulsed with heavy German losses.

By the 20th, 18 Panzer had been badly mauled at Roznava


(2 Tank Army moving into Roznava)

and armoured spearheads pushed into Rimaska Sobota by the 28th.



An attack by the already weakened 18 Panzer was defeated by 31 December as the spearheads of 2 and 3 Tank Armies threatened a major pocket in the Miskolc sector.

Despite these gains, Stavka had to resolve two issues. First it had become clear that the pre-war fortified line on the Slovak-Polish border was far too strong to be taken by frontal assault, especially as it was anchored on the line of the Tatra Mountains. Second, the future operational role of 2 Tank Army had yet to be agreed. Its commitment had seen major gains south of Krakow, but the overall plan called for its usage on the Breslau axis not towards Budapest. Added to this, 3 Tank was now south of the Carpathians but its supply lines stretched across the snowy mountain roads.



Soviet indecision on these two issues meant a loss of momentum on this sector as both sides settled for the front line that had resulted. Instead, the focus shifted back to the Moldavian sector and the major German offensive of late January-February 1944.
 
You're tantalizingly close to Budapest - just one province! Of course, you're also out of supply. D'oh.

The battle of Rimavska Sobota is a a sight to behold: three tank divisions (including Guards!) and a light armor/mechanized division tearing into one sad, little German Panzer division. Such might - and then you're held up by supply problems. It's very promising, though, to see just how badly you can outclass the Germans if you can A) concentrate and B) sort your supply situation. I'm looking forward to seeing some precipitious German collapse here or there. It can't be long, anymore. :)
 
Yeah, Semper Fi did supply mostly right. In the FTM, most of the front would be completely out of supply by now.

I've not played anything but the battle scenarios yet in FTM ... but notice a lot of posts on the problems of supply a French/UK force in Belgium

You're tantalizingly close to Budapest - just one province! Of course, you're also out of supply. D'oh.

The battle of Rimavska Sobota is a a sight to behold: three tank divisions (including Guards!) and a light armor/mechanized division tearing into one sad, little German Panzer division. Such might - and then you're held up by supply problems. It's very promising, though, to see just how badly you can outclass the Germans if you can A) concentrate and B) sort your supply situation. I'm looking forward to seeing some precipitious German collapse here or there. It can't be long, anymore. :)

I included the Rimavska screenshot not as a particularly large or important battle but it was fun to commit so much against such an already battered Panzer division. In effect, the November offensive they launched relied on 3 fresh panzer divisions and by the turn of the year they are but shells of themselves.

Its all small incremental stuff till I finally decide I'm really going to use 2 Tank on this sector - the new problem is those well defended forts on the Slovak border ... again my front tends to get elongated as I push around them looking to envelop them from the side.

More stalemate on the southern sector? You've conquered a few more provinces though - little by little...

Just noticed where Stuyvesant is - I'll be there in two months myself...

aye, the thing is all this small incremental stuff suddenly explodes in my favour come Feb-March (in part as better weather removes a large malus on my attacks and on my supply), but it was a lot of effort shifting units around looking to take individual provinces and hoping it would all add to something in the end.
 
Annex 1: The Numbers of War, Jan 1943-Jan 1944



The Soviet Union entered 1943 with the front line snaking from Lake Ladoga to Smolensk and along the line of the Dniepr to the Black Sea. It ended the year with some units moving onto German soil, in control of Eastern Poland up to the Vistula, eastern Rumania and a narrow coastal strip in Bulgaria. Despite this, it was clear that the final defeat of the Axis powers in Europe would not be easy.


(Raise the Banner of Victory in Berlin)

As more and more of the Soviet Union was liberated, and the infrastructure behind the front gradually repaired, Soviet industrial capacity for military use gradually recovered:



As did access to skilled manpower, with an ongoing emphasis on research (especially for the navy and to improve the leaderhsip of the RKKA)



Overall the Red Army did not grow dramatically in 1943:



In effect manpower constraints limited the capacity to raise new formations. Instead, existing units were reinforced and retrained as new roles and equipment became available. Some 100 of the 625 Infantry Brigades and 10 of the 30 Armour Brigades had Guards status (+30% on organisation and on morale). The small number of mechanized infantry brigades were all converted from existing rifle divisions and 2 had been converted from motorised infantry brigades in one of the Light Tank Divisions.



This shows losses in ground combat across the year and includes both losses for units destroyed in encirclement as well as combat losses.



When broken out by theatre the pattern of Soviet offensives becomes clear. Most of the time one of either the Western or Ukrainian sectors was quiet to minimise supply problems. However, across the year, effectively Soviet offensives were launched constantly across one sector or the other, giving the Germans no respite.

In the Ukraine, Saturn (February) and Pobeda (May) effectively destroyed 23-30 Axis divisions, giving the Red Army overall superiority. On the Western Axis, the victories were less clear cut (not least due to the concentration of Soviet armour in the Ukraine) and losses were much more even.



As the year went on, the officer ratio steadily improved. Mostly as so few new units were commisioned, but also as major cities were liberated, improving access to skilled manpower.



On the other hand, even with building so few new units, and all the extra manpower, the manpower reserves dipped alarmingly. By the end of the year, only the medium tank divisions were being routinely reinforced, all other formations were steadily weakening as combat losses were not being replaced.



The RKKH was slowly being expanded, both in quantity and quality. New ship designs were in production and considerable resources being devoted to training the navy.

The submarine arm, now equipped with longer range submarines, was raiding off South France and had strangled axis shipping in the Baltic.


(100 ships sunk)



The combat strength of the VVS remained more or less the same. However, modern Yak-9 interceptors and Tu-2 medium bombers as well as more emphasis on training made it more than a match for the luftwaffe.



1944 was to see the destruction of the Axis powers in Europe and the escalation of the war to a truely global scale.
 
The end-of-year overview is much appreciated. It's easy to forget how far you've come. That said, given your coda at the end of this update it looks like next year's gains will be much more impressive.

In no month did you suffer more combat losses than did the Axis, which is good news given your critical shortage of manpower. It remains to be seen whether the uptick between December '43 and January '44 was a blip or the sign of recovery.
 
I suspect it is a matter of cleaning up the Axis powers in South America. IIRC, at least Argentina and Brazil are members of the Axis and have eaten up some of the Allied minors there.