1815 - Concert of Europe scenario, research thread

[Dutchemperor]

Just out of curiosity: when should Luxembourg be annexed by whom?

1866 or 1867? By the Netherlands, by Prussia or by France? Or should the dream of the liberal Bourgeoisie of Luxembourg-City come true and Luxembourg gets annexed by Belgium <shudder>?

Yours,
AdL

that is what to choose. it was dutch so if they decided to do nothing it woulod by annex by the netherlands. they can sell it to france. or when the confederation stops it could be bought by prussia, same with dutch limburg. for those regions, in 1839 there was a majority of people who wanted join prussia in a german reich. so the netherlands could give in, and i gove it prussia. or sell it to prussia. it would be in 1866, when the netherlands annex it. before that date it could be given/sold to prussia. then the netherlands annex luxemburg if it is not sold. and then after 1866 it could be sold to both france and prussia. by the french more liked it to bought it. so there should be easier conditions for the french to buy then for the prussians. luxemburg should not go to belgium. it were the rivals of th dutch so i dont think that they would give it to them. if holland still owns luxemburg in 1890 it should become completly independent.

source: http://www.ppsimons.nl/stamboom/limburg1814-1850.htm
it is in dutch.

[Mehow_pwn]

Yes Poland should be vessel after 1815 or around that it never really was completly taken by russia it always was some sort of vessel

[Alan deLane]

...

source: http://www.ppsimons.nl/stamboom/limburg1814-1850.htm
it is in dutch.

Unfortunately I don't understand (enough) Dutch, though it is more close to German and to my mothertongue than French or English.

But back to the mod!

Yours,
AdL

[Alerias]

Canadian Demographics and other considerations

Population Total for Canada in 1836 in Vanilla is 422K/1.68 million. (Everytime I present population in this format its POPs/Real Total Population)

This number appears a bit high if we look at the numbers but then again, the map was also drawn a bit generously in terms of territorial control, and I assume the numbers were boosted a bit for playability or balance in North America.

In 1815, real populations total in the Province of Canada was roughly 450000, and once Columbia, the Maritimes and the Hudson bay lands are factored in, 650000 seems about right. If we go by the slightly generous Paradox numbers, however, we would be looking at about a million souls; though clear numbers are hard to find, we know from what we have that average population growth between 1815 and 1836 was about 55%. Im going to try and take a "middle path" in my suggestions below, between historical purity and using Paradox's numbers as guidelines.

The largest change between both dates in terms of POPs was probably in terms of ethnic makeup rather than population totals. Vanilla places 1836 numbers at 46.9% of Anglo Canadians and 37.4% of French Canadians. These numbers overestimate English population, as the balance in the Province of Canada as a whole was still tipped towards French at this date, and the other British colonies added in should normally give us a ratio closer to 43% vs 41% in favor of English, with almost absolute (>95%) levels of French in Lower Canada. Upper Canada was by then strongly English, however (>75%). In the province of Canada, without the maritime and the Hudson Bay, parity would only be achieved in the 1840s. It looks like Paradox simply used modern day percentages, which lopsided their results.

Anyhow... In 1815, the French are in proportionally much better shape in Canada than in 1836. The waves of loyalist immigration to upper Canada havent shifted Upper Canada to clear English majority yet, and the French dominate Lower Canada and still have a slight majority in modern New-Brunswick.

If we go with the 1836 map and try to scale Paradox' numbers, future Canada would still be 60% French in 1815, with its population concentrated overwhelmingly in Lower Canada, and its English minorities most densely found in the Maritime and about at parity with the French in relatively low numbers in Upper Canada.

In terms of in-game regional breakdown, using the existing region setup, and assuming little map changes

British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Nunavut's populations are practically all native both in 1815 and 1836, in RL and in-game, with trading posts being white man's presence. These areas grew very little in terms of POPs compared to the rapid growth of the East.

Their POP files could be left untouched without issues, especially given that the historical data tend to slightly underestimate the amount of natives. (About 30K/120k total)

New Brunswick region (includes all former greater Acadia/Nova Scotia)
1836 number is 82K/328k: this could be scaled back to 55k/220k. The Vanilla Anglo/French ratio here is based on modern numbers and wrong: historically mainland Acadia still had a French majority in 1815 whilst Nova Scotia was almost entirely English. Assuming an even split between the two halves of the region, about 15K/60K of the total population should be French, which would make New Brunswick about evenly split.

Newfoundland is at 22/88 in 1836, and could be scaled to 15/60. Significant Irish minority correctly represented, about no French left.

Ontario's population is overestimated and over-anglicized in vanilla36, using modern linguistic numbers. Mind you, its also the region in Canada which grew the most between 15 and 36, its population soaring from about 100,000 to 375,000, with growth being overwhelmingly English. Its 112/448K (90% English population) should thus be toned down significantly. I'd suggest a 30/120K population in 1815 with a 55/45 or 60/40 Anglo/French split.

Lower Canada is the heart of 1815 Canada. Its population soared from 350 to 600K between 1815 and 1836. The game represent it with 170/680K in 1836, and a 82/14 French-Anglo split, which once again favors the English ahistorically because of the use of modern figures.

I'd suggest a 95/380K population with 90% French, 4% Anglo-Canadian, and 6% Cree as a more accurate portrayal in 1815. As for the native out west, Cree numbers in Northern Quebec did not soar much 15-36, so they have greater % weight in 1815 than 1836.

Adding up these numbers I get a 225/900K population, closer to real numbers than Paradox'. The new ethnic balance would bring the large French population in focus, and give an healthier representation of the natives' demographics, especially out west. Witihn a couple decades, of course, most of these POPs will grow into British because of game mechanics, but at least the start will be accurate.

As far as territory goes, a choice will have to be made between keeping the current borders or scaling back both the US and Canadian western lands, leaving more "up for grabs". As far as Cores goes, one mistake in the vanilla setup was adding Newfoundland cores on Labrador. This territory was clearly granted to the Province of Canada in 1774, and it only was given to Newfoundland much later. In 1815, it would be most accurately be portrayed as part of the Lower-Canada region, and with only "Quebec" and "Canada" claims on it. Northern Quebec and Ontario could also well be made part of the Nunavut region, as they were all Hudson bay territories rather than parts of Upper Canada or Lower Canada at the time.

Thoughts?

[Earl Uhtred]

All that awesome information only makes me wonder harder how we get from point A to point B. More so since I think your estimate of the population in the marginal areas might well be too generous

Until reading your post above my focus with Canada was really to try and encourage it to fill out the area given it in 1836 vanilla plus progressively add cores in the Midwest and Rockies that would adjust for the developing game situation and allow for the possibility of confrontation with the USA.

Could someone confirm whether you can add influence in an uncolonised territory by event effect?

[HMAS-Nameless]

gahh you stole my idea

[santali]

Hmm... Haven't been any new posts in a while. Any progress with the mod? I was looking forward to it.

[Earl Uhtred]

Thanks. Unfortunately I never had the time to make a full on 1815 scenario alone - this thread was started shortly before the game's release either as a prelude to something with the baton being taken by someone else, or at the very least as a kind of base for ideas and research.

RL commitments have taken their toll since the game was released and other timeline expansions have been attempted since then. I only hope this thread may have been of some use to them.