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Xnaop

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Nov 18, 2009
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Does anyone know what effective probabilities these are, on average? I'm guessing it's probably something like:

Impossible = 0%
Very Unlikely = 10%
Unlikely = 30%
Maybe = 50%
Likely = 70%
Very Likely = 90%

But does anyone actually know? Thanks.
 
In my experience, it depends on whether you're playing HT³ or not. This was always one of my pet peeves, as in IN and before the odds were fairly useless. I went on unlikely more than I did on likely, and succeeded more often. Maybe was better to go on than likely and very likely was more like no friggin' way. Now in HT³, "very likely" actually acts like "very likely". It's been a pleasant change. I'd be curious to know the "official" values myself, especially now that they seem to work as they should.

T
 
There should be also : Obvious ;) for 100% ;)

EDIT:

If it would be, then it would be like this:

Impossible - 0%
Very Unlikely - 1%-10%
Unlikely - 11%-50%
Maybe - 51%-60%
Likely - 61%-80%
Very Likely - 81%-99%
Obvious - 100%
 
The fun thing with EU3, is that once you send a diplomat at very likely, likely or maybe, they doesn't accept the first time, but after a 1 month when a new diplomat arrives they agree on signing the deal. :wacko:
 
A continuation question from the OP:

Does your overall DIP get considered:

A) when determining the phraseology displayed to you regarding success chance (e.g. would be Maybe, but b/c u have diplomatic skill of 7, it say "Likely")?

B) As a modifier AFTER the phraseology of success chance is displayed (so it says "maybe", but b/c you have low DIP, in reality it could be Unlikely?

C) Not at all?
 
Yeah I have found very likely to be just that, and everything else to still be possible, albeit far less likely. I find Likely to be the most inaccurate representation.
 
If V.Likely stands for 99%,you fail once in 8 years and 4 months,and i doubt that anyone fails at very likely THAT often..
So your "obvious sounds so cool so it must be there" idea is no good :|

I've had colonists fail twice in a row when the possibility was at 99% so it's possible.
 

Because everything besides maybe gives a more or less predictable outcome. Yet maybe only pisses me off constantly. I usually have around 2 to 3 strategic partners, countries that I want to keep good relations with. I cannot count the times when my relationship with a country went from 150 to around 20 because I simply cant get a royal marriage on a maybe :mad: