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Thread: Impossible, Very Unlikely, Unlikely, Maybe, Likely, Very Likely

  1. #1
    Colonel Xnaop's Avatar
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    Impossible, Very Unlikely, Unlikely, Maybe, Likely, Very Likely

    Does anyone know what effective probabilities these are, on average? I'm guessing it's probably something like:

    Impossible = 0%
    Very Unlikely = 10%
    Unlikely = 30%
    Maybe = 50%
    Likely = 70%
    Very Likely = 90%

    But does anyone actually know? Thanks.

  2. #2
    Back from moderation hell midget_roxx's Avatar
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    I would say:

    very unlikely = 5%
    unlikely = 10%
    maybe = 40-45%
    likely = 60%
    very likely = ~90%

  3. #3
    Weapon of Mass Obstruction antracer's Avatar
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    In my experience, it depends on whether you're playing HTł or not. This was always one of my pet peeves, as in IN and before the odds were fairly useless. I went on unlikely more than I did on likely, and succeeded more often. Maybe was better to go on than likely and very likely was more like no friggin' way. Now in HTł, "very likely" actually acts like "very likely". It's been a pleasant change. I'd be curious to know the "official" values myself, especially now that they seem to work as they should.

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  4. #4
    Banned Iwanow's Avatar
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    There should be also : Obvious for 100%

    EDIT:

    If it would be, then it would be like this:

    Impossible - 0%
    Very Unlikely - 1%-10%
    Unlikely - 11%-50%
    Maybe - 51%-60%
    Likely - 61%-80%
    Very Likely - 81%-99%
    Obvious - 100%

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  6. #6
    Banned Iwanow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ar7 View Post
    i hate maybe......
    why?

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by midget_roxx View Post
    I would say:

    very unlikely = 5%
    unlikely = 10%
    maybe = 40-45%
    likely = 60%
    very likely = ~90%
    I agree

  8. #8
    On Probation Ketd's Avatar
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    The fun thing with EU3, is that once you send a diplomat at very likely, likely or maybe, they doesn't accept the first time, but after a 1 month when a new diplomat arrives they agree on signing the deal.

  9. #9
    Banned Iwanow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ketd View Post
    The fun thing with EU3, is that once you send a diplomat at very likely, likely or maybe, they doesn't accept the first time, but after a 1 month when a new diplomat arrives they agree on signing the deal.
    very likely don't mean obvious...

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    Second Lieutenant
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iwanow View Post
    very likely don't mean obvious...
    If V.Likely stands for 99%,you fail once in 8 years and 4 months,and i doubt that anyone fails at very likely THAT often..
    So your "obvious sounds so cool so it must be there" idea is no good :|

  11. #11
    Banned Iwanow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skrylius View Post
    If V.Likely stands for 99%,you fail once in 8 years and 4 months,and i doubt that anyone fails at very likely THAT often..
    So your "obvious sounds so cool so it must be there" idea is no good :|
    !!! 80% to 99% !!!!

    99% is MAX...

  12. #12
    A continuation question from the OP:

    Does your overall DIP get considered:

    A) when determining the phraseology displayed to you regarding success chance (e.g. would be Maybe, but b/c u have diplomatic skill of 7, it say "Likely")?

    B) As a modifier AFTER the phraseology of success chance is displayed (so it says "maybe", but b/c you have low DIP, in reality it could be Unlikely?

    C) Not at all?

  13. #13
    Field Marshal Moltke's Avatar

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    In my experience "Very Likely" means "probably" and everything else means "Not Gonna Happen."

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    Banned Iwanow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moltke View Post
    In my experience "Very Likely" means "probably" and everything else means "Not Gonna Happen."
    In my experience only Impossible means : Not gonna happen, and everything else means - "can be if you are lucky"...

  15. #15
    Yeah I have found very likely to be just that, and everything else to still be possible, albeit far less likely. I find Likely to be the most inaccurate representation.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by midget_roxx View Post
    i would say:

    Very unlikely = 5%
    unlikely = 10%
    maybe = 40-45%
    likely = 0%
    very likely = ~90%
    fyp

  17. #17
    Colonel Xnaop's Avatar
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    So, am I correct that none of the people who responded here actually know?

    I will be starting to keep statistics on this to try to figure it out.

  18. #18
    A bear there was, a bear! Kapt Torbjorn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skrylius View Post
    If V.Likely stands for 99%,you fail once in 8 years and 4 months,and i doubt that anyone fails at very likely THAT often..
    So your "obvious sounds so cool so it must be there" idea is no good :|
    I've had colonists fail twice in a row when the possibility was at 99% so it's possible.
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  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Iwanow View Post
    why?
    Because everything besides maybe gives a more or less predictable outcome. Yet maybe only pisses me off constantly. I usually have around 2 to 3 strategic partners, countries that I want to keep good relations with. I cannot count the times when my relationship with a country went from 150 to around 20 because I simply cant get a royal marriage on a maybe

  20. #20
    Field Marshal Moltke's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Iwanow View Post
    In my experience only Impossible means : Not gonna happen, and everything else means - "can be if you are lucky"...
    Of course, but due to the relations hit it can be problematic to keep trying.

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