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Werewolf LXXXIV: Aces of the Pacific

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trespoe said:
Most likely Cannibal: Kriszo

A run down of those remaining.

I am a villager. Cannot prove it, you just have my word on this.

Yakman: Day 5, voted by Racz and nearly lynched.
Walrus: Day 3, voting Racz till the end, Racz almost lynched. Voted by Racz and almost lynched.
Calamity: Day 3, switched to Jester and got him lynched.
OrangeYoshi: Day 3, switched to Jester and got him lynched.
Sbr: Day 3, switched to Jester and got him lynched.
Snoopdogg: Day 3, switched to Jester and got him lynched.
Jopi: Day 3, voting Racz till the end, Racz almost lynched. Voted by Jester and almost lynched.
AOK: Day 3, voting Racz w/ 25 minutes left, switched to Jester the other cannibal.
Jacob-lundgren: Day 3, voting Racz till the end, Racz almost lynched.

Kriszo: Day 4, voted by Racz but never in any serious danger of being lynched. Day 3, when Racz and Jester were run up, he had his vote on hdk (the lone vote on him).
Click to expand...

I hadn't looked yet but that looks right and is rather convincing.
 
sbr said:
We have to focus on finding a Cannibal because we know* there is a Cannibal left while there may be a Cylon.

*Assuming symmetrical pack set-up; though the only GM I have seen not use symmetrical packs is...johho.
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Agreed. Everyone should lay out their theory about who the most likely cannibal is today.

I will check back in the morning and post my thoughts. Perhaps we can end this thing sooner than later by killing the cannibal wolf. :)
 
Best Options for Cylons: no clue. As far as I am concerned, Kriszo, sbr, Yakman, Snoopdogg, AOK, and Jacob are possibles.

Calamity, Orangeyoshi, Jopi, and Walrus seem most likely Colonials.

Most voting records are before the no hunt night, however. So that kinda puts everyone back into play.

Calamity: Day 5, votes Dublish
Kriszo: not much here
OrangeYoshi: Day 8 Tornadoli votes OrangeYoshi up in the rankings, but later switches to muttoneer when the OY votes dry up.
Sbr: not much here
Yakman: Day 7, Dublish votes Yakman close to the leaders, but no real danger.
Snoopdogg: Day 2, hdk & dublish run up Rexodia and Euro, saving Snoopdogg? Day 3, Dublish votes snoop after spending most of the day on Jopi. No danger for Snoopdogg. Day 5, Tornadoli and hdk vote him when Dublish run up. Snoop again not in any danger.
Jopi: Day 4, Dublish votes Jopi late, almost within lynching, until a last minute push on Hax takes makes Jopi safe.
AOK: Dublish joins the AOK bandwagon, but later switches to Tornadoli.
Jacob-lundgren: not much here
Walrus: Day 5, votes Dublish

I also wonder if it was decided that Torn should be voted dead by the others because he had the brutal trait. It would enable them to take down a villager and give Dublish cover since he voted for him. They just didn’t expect Muttoneer. (No one expects the Muttoneer! Surprise is his greatest weapon. Surprise and fear. Those two weapons, Surprise, fear are his most dangerous weapons. And wearing neat red robes.)

There, that is all I have.
 
Trespoe certainly has put together a somewhat compelling argument.

but i do not forget his crovax yesterday.
 
trespoe said:
Best Options for Cylons: no clue. As far as I am concerned, Kriszo, sbr, Yakman, Snoopdogg, AOK, and Jacob are possibles.
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i would like to mention that it was my last minute vote shift that spared TAM and lynched Tornadoli.
 
Yakman said:
Trespoe certainly has put together a somewhat compelling argument.

but i do not forget his crovax yesterday.
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not a crovax, a "trespoe"! Give me my due, will ya? Thank you for your adoration.

Please send money, wine (red, preferred), pictures of F1 celebrities (no Mark Webber, please), young women with low morals (18 years of age minimum), and steaks (my favorite food) to my address, available by PM.
 
Yakman said:
i would like to mention that it was my last minute vote shift that spared TAM and lynched Tornadoli.
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yes, good argument. But they were voting one another, and I still think that if one had to go, they wanted Tornadoli to go for his brutal trait and Dublish would have coverage. Just like you, now. :)

Academic, unless the game goes on after we get the last cannibal. The cylons are a tough bunch to analyze.
 
If I had known who the baddies were I guarantee my votes would be different. All I am guilty of is being clueless:p
 
stab in teh dark vote

vote sbr
 
I can't help but notice you've ommitted yourself from that otherwise good analysis Trespoe... Have something to hide? ;)

And Muttoneer isn't a 100% cleared villager by the way, he could be a cannibal hunter cultist for all we know. (Unless I missed something other than the hunter kill that clears him anyway.)

Anyway...

VOTE Kriszo

Going off of Trespoes analysis. I'll look into things more tomorrow, for now I'm tired and its late... :p
 
OrangeYoshi said:
Anyone care to take a second look at those people who TAM thought were baddies yesterday? We already know that his and randakar's analysis has been 100% right so far.
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AOK, Jopi, and Jacob were all mentioned by Arch Mede and Randakar.

sbr started on me quickly, was joined heavily by Yakman and AOK. sbr later turned on Arch Mede and drove that bandwagon up.

Randakar post 1182 had AOK, Torn, Jopi, and jacob

Arch Mede post 1178 had AOK, snoopdogg, and sbr

(I am trying to read my notes, and they are sloppily written, please verify.)

I am thinking that sbr could be a sorcerer. I am a villager and so was Arch Mede. He started both bandwagons. He would know if we were villagers (or at least non-seers, cultists, priests, or apprentice)

ONE POINT OF ORDER: If we assume symmetrical packs, so far each pack has had a brutal and a spiritually aware wolf. There has been a plotter for the cylons.....

Somebody look to see if someone is plotting. They would make a great candidate.

EDIT: also, forgot this before, we still haven't found any cultists yet. I did the analysis thing earlier and came up with Kriszo. He could still be a cultist and a wolf could be hiding. Just need to state this point, also.
 
Calamity said:
I can't help but notice you've ommitted yourself from that otherwise good analysis Trespoe... Have something to hide? ;)
Click to expand...

Very true, he had such a convincing case against Kriszo I forgot to look at him.

Here are all of trespoe's votes:

Day 1 early vote on rexodia; never moved -- rex lynched
Day 2 early vote on EW(AOK); moved to Jopi at 3:19 to go; moved to vLN 2:50 to go; back to Jopi 2:10; never moved -- Jester Cannibal lynched
Day 3 early vote on Split; never moved -- Hax lynched
Day 4 early vote on OY; moved to mutton 1:45; never moved -- Ciryandor lynched

Day 5 voted mutton 2:25; never moved trespoe won but rac was lynched

Day 6 voted vLN early; never moved -- vLN won OY lynched jonti

Day 7 voted vLn early; moved to jacob 13:55; back to vLN 6:27; never moved -- vLN lynched

Day 8 voted dublish early; moved to sbr :20; never moved torn lynched

trespoe has been very uninvolved in any of the important votes, except that he wont eh vote and was saved by OY on day 5.

trespoe is just as likely to be a Cannibal as Kriszo is; maybe more so with the very early and quick analysis today. Was he nervous and wantd to make sure he steered the village away as soon as possible? How about OY as a Cannibal cultist Leader? That would make a lot of sense as well.

Vote trespoe
 
Another point. trespoe jumped on every easy bandwagon. EW wanted out, trespoe voted him. THE_SPLIT was going to get autolynched, trespoe voted him. vLN asked to be killed, trespoe voted him repeatedly. Those were all very easy votes and likely places for wolves to hide, IMO.
 
trespoe said:
I am thinking that sbr could be a sorcerer. I am a villager and so was Arch Mede. He started both bandwagons. He would know if we were villagers (or at least non-seers, cultists, priests, or apprentice)
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You have a strange idea of "starting" bandwagons. I pointed out your mention of Cylons before that knowledge was public, but I never voted for you.

I made the first vote on TAM and pushed for him lynching but I wouldn't really call that starting a bandwagon on him. I made a case and others listened; as I thought I was right I wasn't going to dissuade people from following me.

Somebody look to see if someone is plotting. They would make a great candidate.
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This is the problem with not keeping our own vote counts, relying on the GMs makes it harder to find the plotters. Unfortunately I wasn;t able to keep my own this game.
 
sbr said:
This is the problem with not keeping our own vote counts, relying on the GMs makes it harder to find the plotters. Unfortunately I wasn;t able to keep my own this game.
Click to expand...

Doesn't matter. I just spent 20 minutes looking and every discrepancy I could find between the next to last vote count and the final was accounted for. Either there isn't a cannibal plotter or he isn't using the ability.
 
I know I am not a wolf.

I am willing to tie with Kriszo. How about that?

If the village wins, I am willing to die at the last moment.

The decent thing to do, if Kriszo is the last wolf, would be for him to surrender.

Vote Kriszo

of course, if he is a cultist, this all goes to poop.

Tie us up, hula dancer!
 
trespoe said:
I know I am not a wolf.

I am willing to tie with Kriszo. How about that?

If the village wins, I am willing to die at the last moment.

The decent thing to do, if Kriszo is the last wolf, would be for him to surrender.

Vote Kriszo

of course, if he is a cultist, this all goes to poop.

Tie us up, hula dancer!
Click to expand...

I already voted you. :)
 
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