OY, this is why you get killed. You get killed because you are a f**king moron.
VOTE OY
VOTE OY
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Thinking about this some more, I think OY is right about one thing: We need to find and kill members of the other pack, and soon. We have 18 players alive, and 12 dead. If 1/3rd of the players was a baddie at the start that means 10 baddies. Most likely setup: 2 packs, 3 wolves each, a sorcerer, and some cultists.
Minus two wolves. 8.
That brings parity to 16. If the saboteur pack manages to wipe out the cannibal pack pack the saboteur pack wins in 2 days. (Killing a cannibal brings down parity to 14..)
Given this reasoning the saboteur pack will be looking to kill cannibal pack members. If OY is just being a retard villager (which is not entirely unlikely!) then the saboteur pack won't be terribly interested in lynching him. They'd rather have cannibals lynched instead as that gives them parity sooner.
So, who is still pushing for looking for cannibals?
Unvote OrangeYoshi
Vote snoopdogg
edit: Also, can the GA please contact me by PM? I would very much like to know who was protected last night.
Minus two wolves. 8.
That brings parity to 16. If the saboteur pack manages to wipe out the cannibal pack pack the saboteur pack wins in 2 days. (Killing a cannibal brings down parity to 14..)
Given this reasoning the saboteur pack will be looking to kill cannibal pack members. If OY is just being a retard villager (which is not entirely unlikely!) then the saboteur pack won't be terribly interested in lynching him. They'd rather have cannibals lynched instead as that gives them parity sooner.
So, who is still pushing for looking for cannibals?
Unvote OrangeYoshi
Vote snoopdogg
edit: Also, can the GA please contact me by PM? I would very much like to know who was protected last night.
Lolwut? Since when were you cleared?
And I'd be glad to look for members of the other pack radnakar, but as your analysis shows, we're sadly just taking stabs in the dark there. If you can come up with someone more convincing than the people's JL spokesman, then I will listen to what you have to say.
Could all the wolves please contact me in this thread? I would very much like to know who you plan to hunt in the future?
Lolwut? Since when were you cleared?
I'm not. Then again there isn't much to be lost since there is probably not that much left to protect in terms of important goodies.
If OY was protected tonight then we may have an explanation for the no-kill and more importantly some evidence that the saboteur pack may have tried to hunt him. I don't want the GA to give away his/her identity in public just to protect a moron though. However if the GA is willing to take a chance with me I can relay it to the village without exposing his/her identity.
Sorry, like you stabs in the dark is all I have.
Well, not entirely: Tornadoli was way too happy when he posted that "Hunt OY" thing earlier. Villagers don't have much reason to be happy about what's going on here, do they?
It isn't much to go on though.
Could all the wolves please contact me in this thread? I would very much like to know who you plan to hunt in the future?
Hey, I would love to see them to do that. It would be entertaining, at a minimum.
Ironhead much?
Would you care to refute my logic of what I did instead of just spouting off? I mean, if you don't, that's fine, but at least then we'll remember why you shouldn't be playing in the Big games.
I have yet to see anyone say what I did was wrong, just that the person was the wrong one to do it to. It was a crapshoot. We lost. So be it. Let's move on. Hindsight is 20-20.
I haven't even started. Ironhead's ire seems like a flickering candle in the full force of my fury.
If i had posted the original versions of either of those posts I'd be IP banned from this forum
That'll happen automatically, its just that time of the month for him
Unvote snoopdogg
Vote tornadoli
Dunno if snoop is a dog or a dogg, and I have this feeling we have plenty of voting material on him anyway.
Torn, on the other hand, hasn't been voted on at all yet. If he's a wolf it clears a number of people, if he isn't it still gives us some information.
@trespoe: What do your spreadsheets tell you about sabotage pack possibilities?
edit: hmn, looking at bandwagon jumpers and throwaway voters might give us something to work with.
What about sbr, for instance?
On day 2 he's voting a villager (rysz)
On day 3 he starts the second snoopdogg runup, switches to jopi, then finally goes for jester (cannibal)
On day 4 we find him on the THE_ZOMBUS bandwagon (while he's getting run up, but I don't think he was in any danger at that time), then joins the hax (villager) bandwagon late
On day 5 he's voting a villager (ciryandor)
On day 6 he's voting trespoe
On day 7 he votes a throwaway on kriszo
Not sure if he's a good suspect or if there are better ones out there. We'll have to go through the vote list with a fine comb to see if there are more folks who throw away votes or join bandwagons. It's getting too late for me to do that now though - I'll have to squeeze in some time tomorrow somewhere for it.
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Your "logic" was typical of what we get from you: Baseless, somewhat amateur theories tortured and twisted to such a degree as to be useless and or utterly retarded paranoid conspiracies that are detached from anything resembling reality and that therefore reach conclusions that are usually in the interests of the wolves as well as being largely unintelligible. Being that the case, I did not refute them. Your posts usually refute themselves since they reek of idiocy.
However, since you insist:
Really? Thank you for the insight. I had never considered this.
Really? Alright. Lets think about it. Jonti is a wolf in a thusfar unbloodied wolfpack in a big game where the Seer, Priest, Witness, Doctor, the Seer's mother. the Priest's second cousin, ect have all been killed and the JL's operating center has been burned to the ground and sown with salt. The goodies are clueless. Another wolfpack has been damaged significantly.
Jonti is in an excellent position. So what does he do? Of COURSE! He pretends to be a hunter!!!$@$ IN PUBLIC!!! F**KING BRILLIANT!!!!!
Great theory Yosh. Really.
Your insight is truly stunning. Thank you for laying it out for us.
No it is not. We do not know how many wolves or cultists/sorcs are out there. We do not know what the status is of the packs (are we sure there are only two?), or how the baddies are organized. The last thing the baddies would do at this point is come out in the open with a voting block that can be discerned and destroyed. At this point there would have to be at least a remnant of another pack still operating. As long as that is true, and the baddies are split, the wolves will stay in the background. There is absolutely no reason for them to act otherwise. The idea that a baddie, especially Jonti, would pretend to be a hunter in this situation, in public, is ludicrous.
Yes. You got the ball rolling. Toward a village massacre faster than it already was. Congrats.
And thus you became a baddie useful idiot, if you are not an actual baddie. Again, I congratulate you.
Fixed.
Do you really wanna go there? Don't you have enough enemies around here?
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jacob-lundgren looks like a likely candidate, from a cursory look at his record. Most of his votes are just throwaways from what I can see. Let's put some pressure on him.
Unvote Tornadoli
Vote jacob-lundgren
Apologies for the vote switching, but with so little to go on it takes some time to make up my mind.
Unvote Tornadoli
Vote jacob-lundgren
Apologies for the vote switching, but with so little to go on it takes some time to make up my mind.
heheh. Angry AoK. Haven't seen that in a while.
I know. Reading my older games makes me feel..well.. old.
And yet I am usually right about who the baddies are, even if the exact circumstances are not always correct. That is, when I live long enough to do some analysis.
Many stranger things have happened. And don't you think that, while it is unbloodied, they would want more control over who is lynched without forming such a voting block as you say would be bad? Yes, they would. That means they would want someone in a position of some trust and/or leadership.
I'm glad you like it.
You are missing the entire premise. The premise is to kill someone from the other pack that we have no analysis information on. No, they wouldn't form a voting block to go out and lynch somebody, but how do we know they haven't formed voting blocks in order to keep their own from getting lynched? This is info we vitally need in order to kill whatever other packs are out there. Without, we are just mindlessly floating around waiting for the villagers to lynch each other and for the wolves to eat us.
There is no need to form a voting block unless threatened, but without knowing anyone in that pack, there is no way of knowing if they were threatened.
And why is jonti a less likely lier?
Um, so? If no analysis material on the other pack is attained, it is a village massacre. So what if this sped it up a day? It was worth the chance to be able to get some info and perhaps pull out a win.
Do you really wanna go there? Don't you have enough enemies around here?
I would say "you started it", but that would be childish. Besides, we should be above such useless name calling and behavior.
Now....
There is something wrong with your argument. You are stating that the motive for doing what I did was wrong, while using who I lynched as proof. That is simply not possible to do. If I had gotten a wolf from the other pack with that lynch, you would all be praising me for getting a wolf and getting voting analysis. Thus, the motive for doing what I did isn't questionable.
What is questionable is who I picked to lynch. As I said before, with absolutely no analysis material for the other pack to go on, it was a crapshoot. I was willing to take the risk, however, since if I did nothing, we would lose.
Randakar you silly nut, if I was a baddie everyone would be dead by now and those dead would be double-dead. Such is the power of my awesome.
I have never noticed you being particularly skillfull is picking baddies. Perhaps you are, but I have never seen it. Your "analysis" is usually bizarre and fairly worthless, and often times so much so that you get yourself lynched. I am not sure on what evidence you base your claim that you are usually right.
How exactly would it be worth the risk for a wolf, Jonti in particular, to stick his head up? Jonti clearly indicated his intention of using his powers. Do you think a wolf, faking it, would say that? Would it not set himself up for lynching when the hunt order never came through? There is no need for the wolves to pull such a stunt. Yes, it is possible, but even if they were to try such a move it most certainly would not be a senior figure like Jonti being thrown out there to inevitable death. Faking huntership in this spot is suicide. The game would be up at some point. Jonti would not make that move, of that I am sure. He is more skilled and calculating than the type of player that would be so pointlessly reckless when already in a strong position. If it was later in the game, and perhaps Jonti was on the verge of lynching, then I could see it happening. But not here, not now, not under these circumstances.
I understand the premise. It is not a totally bad idea, but your target was an extremely bad choice. I understand we need the information. The point is the path you took was not going to get it for us, and is now likely going to get you killed.
He is not a less likely liar. He is rather far less likely to try and pass that particular lie. He would have chosen a better suited and more useful lie if he had needed to as a wolf.
The target you chose never had the chance of panning out. That is the point.
The chance of you getting a wolf with that was negligible because of the target chosen. I understand you have to play the odds and take chances. I do that all the time. The point is the odds in this circumstance were heavily against you. Jonti was not anything close to a likely member of an unknown pack.
If you had picked someone else who would have been a more plausible target and came up empty, I would not be criticizing you now. You made a severe error and hurt our chances with a ill-planned gamble that blew up. End of story