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Thread: Black Swans

  1. #1

    Black Swans

    Will black swans(high impact unforeseen evens that are readily visible with hind sight) have a much larger effect than in the first game?

    i.e. The recent financial crash, the .COM boom, and bust are all recent examples.

    The reason I ask is that I remember market crashes/booms in the first game would hardly qualify as speed bumps.

  2. #2
    The Wiggster Demi Moderator RedRalphWiggum's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by richtern View Post
    Will black swans(high impact unforeseen evens that are readily visible with hind sight) have a much larger effect than in the first game?

    i.e. The recent financial crash, the .COM boom, and bust are all recent examples.

    The reason I ask is that I remember market crashes/booms in the first game would hardly qualify as speed bumps.
    I hope so. I agree that crashes were underpowered in the first outing, they should be made really severe.

  3. #3
    academic outlaw Moderator safferli's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedRalphWiggum View Post
    I hope so. I agree that crashes were underpowered in the first outing, they should be made really severe.
    As they were represented as events, I think it shouldn't be too hard to change them and adjust to one's liking
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    Lt. General ashandresash's Avatar
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    But... problem with black swans is that they're unexpectable before they happen... but explainable after. So, a pure-hazardous event would be quite unfair, and game-breaking IMO.

    In fact, the right thing should be some unseen mechanics working, that finally finishes emerging, like a combination of bad luck (odds have a role, but your decisions should increase/decrease likelyness). Something like a 'fog of war' applied to economic issues would be fine.

    I proposed long time ago somewhat like a monetary badboy to represent and manage credit and monetary policy. That depending on level of badboy and a random dice try, you could have (from less to more) a financial panic, a recession... or even a depression.

    Ideas at the beginning of Vicky2 brainstorm
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  5. #5
    Philosopher of the Future Alexander Seil's Avatar
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    Such things should come about, for the lack of a non-buzzword, because of emergent gameplay, not because the developers put them in intentionally...

  6. #6
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    Yup, something hideosly mechanistic about events, they have their place but don't lets build these "Black Swans" as you call them out of cogs and pulleys, the event system won't model the graceful wing-beat of a real swan.

    *there, analogy well and truly trampled on*
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  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by ashandresash View Post
    I proposed long time ago somewhat like a monetary badboy to represent and manage credit and monetary policy. That depending on level of badboy and a random dice try, you could have (from less to more) a financial panic, a recession... or even a depression.

    Ideas at the beginning of Vicky2 brainstorm
    That's a really great idea. But the problem is to figure out what constitutes as bad credit/monetary practices as to cause that financial BB to increase.

  8. #8
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    but some pure 'killer-events' would put much of the fun out of the game. These crashes didn't happened out of the blue, they happened because many people gambled and lost. you should have the option to go for a high-risk course, which could possible spell destruction upon your nation, but would enable high possible benefits for your nation if everything goes right.
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    Lt. General ashandresash's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NobleJms View Post
    That's a really great idea. But the problem is to figure out what constitutes as bad credit/monetary practices as to cause that financial BB to increase.
    I did a few wall text about it. The basics were: the more credit you generate (more money available to investment from a basis from savings, reserves...), the higher your BB. Limited by your politics and so. It was in the old megathread on economics.

    But coming back to the OP, I find quite interesting having unexpected but plausible outcomes of risky decisions. If HttR-like AI (last expansion of EUIII) is adopted, we can expect very interesting things with diplomacy.
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  10. #10
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    They should be random and not set by event.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by richtern View Post
    Will black swans(high impact unforeseen evens that are readily visible with hind sight) have a much larger effect than in the first game?

    i.e. The recent financial crash, the .COM boom, and bust are all recent examples.

    The reason I ask is that I remember market crashes/booms in the first game would hardly qualify as speed bumps.
    This current crash was predicted by many I don't just mean those with an awareness that boom is followed by bust, I mean it was explained to me what would happen before it happened

    And to stop my post being a troll... I agree it should ideally come about from gameplay, but perhaps to help it along there could be events to help model the cycle, or certain random events that only crop up in certain circumstances. E.g. unemployment might lead to "huge rally of the unemployed" event, a downturn in the business cycle might bankrupt some capitalists etc.
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  12. #12
    They have to be very careful how they balance mega disaster events, if they plan on putting them in at all.

    I have a hard time believing anyone wants to dump dozens of hours into a game only to have their country wrecked by an event pop up. That would likely just make the game not fun and make the people who play it very angry.

    And worse yet, what if the AI isn't competent enough to deal with mega disasters unlike you the player, which leave you emerging as the only real power in the game when the dust clears? I'd hate to have something like the great depression hitting a bunch of major countries and have all of them be ruined by unemployment revolts and unable to ever get their affairs in order again for the rest of the game.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jia Xu View Post
    They have to be very careful how they balance mega disaster events, if they plan on putting them in at all.

    I have a hard time believing anyone wants to dump dozens of hours into a game only to have their country wrecked by an event pop up. That would likely just make the game not fun and make the people who play it very angry.
    Maybe the best way to represent them would be with a series of events? Instead of getting one "Holy Crap the Economy Just Imploded!" pop-up, you would get some more minor events in the begining that would give the player a chance to try and do something, or at least hint at the problem to come.

    Plus there could be some things that affect its chances or severity, such as Crime fighting. I remember in Vicky1 that you could have certain province modifiers like "Organized Crime" and such, so perhaps there could be one representing bad investments or corruption on the local "Wall Street". If you have too many of these then you have a higher chance of getting said nasty pop up.
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  14. #14
    I, for one, do not agree with the "theory" regarding so-called Black Swans. Some able economists were able to predict these more than enough and warn repeatedly against practices that would eventually lead to crisis.

    BUT ANYWAY

    My opinion in a gameplay POV - You are running your country pretty well, everything is nice and all, then suddenly an event that wrecks the hell out of your economy because of some reason you couldn't possibly access (and take appropriate measure) since it was "unpredictable".

    I already feel injusticed at the "brain drain" events of VIP, considering that my citizens haven't left the country in 40 years. Imagine how players would feel with a massive kick in their shins like that?

  15. #15
    Takeda retainer Demi Moderator Chaingun's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alexander Seil View Post
    Such things should come about, for the lack of a non-buzzword, because of emergent gameplay, not because the developers put them in intentionally...
    +1; this is paramount. It's no fun getting hit by a major catastrophic random event which you could do nothing/little to prevent (little = changing a DP slider in EU terms). It's however fun if the necessary preconditions are properly simulated so that the event in itself isn't so much caused by randomness as by the player's actions.
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