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About plagues:

According to
http://patachu.com/egypt-mamluk-dynasty-1250-1517-plague/
plague in the Mamluk Empire was recurring in less than every 10 years and devastating. Currently we have three plague events in 1438, 1460 and 1494. Instead of fixed population losses (the only way it was possible in EU2) I suggest to use the new FtG commands to let the plague take 1/3rd of the population.

Code:
#(1460) Plague of 1460
event = {
	id = 24041
	random = no
	country = MAM
	name = "EVENTNAME24041" #Plague of 1460
	desc = "EVENTHIST24041"
	#-#In 1460 a[color=yellow]nother[/color] plague devastated Egypt.

	date = { day = 1 month = january year = 1460 }
	offset = 120
	deathdate = { day = 1 month = january year = 1461 }

	action_a = {
		name = "DRATS"
		[color=red]command = { type = population which = 746 value = -2000 } #Egypt
		command = { type = population which = 744 value = -2000 } #Alexandria
		command = { type = population which = 745 value = -1000 } #Delta
		command = { type = population which = 747 value = -1000 } #Nile[/color]
                [color=yellow]command = { type = populationpercent which = 744 value = -33 } #Alexandria
                command = { type = populationpercent which = 745 value = -33 } #Delta
                command = { type = populationpercent which = 746 value = -33 } #Egypt
                command = { type = populationpercent which = 747 value = -33 } #Nile[/color]
		command = { type = stability value =-1 }
		command = { type = provincetax which = 744 value = -1 } #Alexandria
		command = { type = provincetax which = 746 value = -1 } #Egypt
		command = { type = provincemanpower which = 744 value = -1 } #Alexandria
	}
}

With the additional line the text about leaving thousands of soldiers dead because of the plague becomes correct.

Code:
#(1438) Succession of Sultan Barsbay
event = {
	id = 24037
	random = no
	country = MAM
	name = "EVENTNAME24037" #Plague and Syrian Revolt
	desc = "EVENTHIST24037"
	#-#In 1438 sultan Barsbay was campaigning with his troops in Syria, when an epidemic of plague struck and left him and thousands of his soldiers dead. Barsbay's son Yusuf al-Aziz succeeded him under the regency of of his former atabeq Cakmak, but was deposed a mere few days later. Unhappy beys had revolted and were finally subdued in 1439.

	date = { day = 6 month = june year = 1438 }

	action_a = {
		name = "DRATS"
                [color=yellow]command = { type = desertion which = 1209 value = 3000 } #random province in Levant area[/color]
		command = { type = domestic which = centralization value = -1 }
		command = { type = stability value = -6 }
		command = { type = revoltrisk which = 18 value = 8 }
		command = { type = religiousrevolt which = -1 }
	}
}

Code:
#(1492-1516) Plague in the army
event = {
	id = 24047
	trigger = {
		atwar = yes
	}
	random = no
	country = MAM
	name = "EVENTNAME24047" #Plague in the army
	desc = "EVENTHIST24047"
	#-#Historically on campaign against the Ottomans in 1492, Mamluk army suffered a devastating blow, as plague decimated their ranks, and they had to sue for peace.

	date = { day = 1 month = january year = 1492 }
	offset = 120
	deathdate = { day = 1 month = january year = 1516 }

	action_a = {
		name = "DRATS"
		command = { type = desertion which = -1 value = 5000 }
		command = { type = desertion which = -1 value = 5000 }
                [color=yellow]command = { type = manpower value = -5 } [/color]
		command = { type = stability value = -2 }
	}
}
 
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Firstly, what I usually see is the opposite happening (what should be Mamluk territory becomes a mess);

Did you see that before or after adding the casusbellicores to the mamluks? If it was before you should add them and run a few handsoff games to see how that changed it.
e.g. my 2nd hands-off game. The Ottomans are doing somewhat better but the Mamluks are still expanding instead of struggling to survive:

ScreenSave00003.jpg

but more importantly, if what is an almost historical Mamluk state is enough to scare the Ottomans, the problem lies in their AI or their expansion, rather than in Egypt.

The Ai does not take only the number of provinces into account when deciding if to go to war but much more. When the Mamluk armies are huge or they have good stability at that moment then the Ottoman AI is less likely to declare war even if they already got the cores on Syria and Egypt. So we need to make sure that the Mamluk state really is unstable at the time of the historical ottoman conquest in the early 16th century, e.g. by making the plague events either more numerous (historically roughly every 10 years) or more severe, especially the late one that is closest to the historical Mamluk-Ottoman war.
 
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Mamluk stability:

When the goal is to have the Mamluks unstable, especially at the time they historically lost against the Ottomans then I don´t understand this event:

Code:
#(1507-1515) Capture of the Morgarbina
event = {
	id = 24032
	trigger = {
		event = 24015 #KNI: Capture of the Morgarbina
		atwar = no
		NOT = { alliance = { country = KNI country = MAM } }
		exists = KNI
		owned = { province = 744 data = MAM } #then not to weak
		control = { province = 744 data = MAM } #then not to weak
	}
	random = no
	country = MAM
	name = "EVENTNAME24015" #Capture of the Morgarbina
	desc = "EVENTHIST24015"
	#-#The Morgarbina was a gigantic vessel with seven decks which plied the seas between Tunis and Constantinople. Wealthy merchants confidently used her to ship their richest wares, confident that not even the notorious Knights could capture her. Commander de Gastineau, a wily captain from Limousin, waylaid the leviathan off Crete. Under pretence of parleying, he laid the Order's own great carrack alongside and then mowed down the captain and officers on the poop with one murderous salvo of grapeshot. The leaderless crew struck their colours and the Knights boarded to find a staggering consignment of silver and jewellery as well as bales of silk, cashmere and carpets, and quantities of pepper, ginger, cloves, and cinnamon. On the way home, the brethern captured three smaller cargo ships, and the entire treasure was eventually sold in France, its owners being held to ransom or sent to the slave market.

	date = { day = 1 month = april year = 1507 }
	offset = 10
	deathdate = { day = 1 month = september year = 1515 }

	action_a = {
		name = "ACTIONNAME24032A" #Punish the pirates right away
		command = { type = casusbelli which = KNI value = 120 }
		command = { type = relation which = KNI value = -400 }
		[color=red]command = { type = stability value = 6 }[/color]
		command = { type = galleys which = 744 value = 10 } #Alexandria
		[color=red]command = { type = cav which = 744 value = 10000 }[/color]
		command = { type = treasury value = -50 }
		[color=yellow]command = { type = merchants value = -2 }
                command = { type = trade value = -200 }[/color]
	}

Having a new Sultan and the whole lot of Emirs fight for the power lower stability by -6 and that the Knights capture several ships suddenly unites them so much that they gain +6 stability at a time where they should be unstable short before the historical conquest? And they gain 10000 cavalry for their army that probably is used on land against the Ottomans?
The Order of St. John gains 150 ducats in their capture event but the Mamluks lose only 50?

I suggest to either reduce the stability bonus to +1 or to remove it entirely, to remove the cavarly entirely,
to reduce the MAM number of merchants and to have them lose some trade.
 
Suggested change to ottoman event:

The event has the monarch Selim I. as a condition and January 1512 as starting date. Selim however rises to the throne in May 1512 so the event can´t trigger before that and the starting date only means that the game has to check the trigger 4 months before the event ever could fire.

The soldiers are placed in a random province since EU2 but I suggest to have them placed in Anatolia (so not in the european part of Turkey) as the new FtG commands allow.

Code:
#(1512-1520) Selim's Thoughts on the Mamluk Sultanate
event = {
	id = 301503
	trigger = {
		exists = MAM
		monarch = 0139006 #Selim I
		NOT = {
			war = { country = TUR country = MAM }
			owned = { province = 746 data = -1 } #Egypt
			vassal = { country = MAM country = TUR }
		}
	}
	random = no
	country = TUR
	name = "EVENTNAME301503" #Selim's Thoughts on the Mamluk Sultanate
	desc = "EVENTHIST301503"
	#-#During the reign of Bayezid II, relations between the Ottomans and Mamluks were quite cordial. Although initially there was some quarreling over southeastern Anatolia, Bayezid II largely preferred co-existance. All of this was to change when his youngest son, Selim rose to the throne. Unlike his father, Selim was an expansionist. His policies put the two states on a collision course when he began harassing Dulkadir.

	date = { day = 1 month = [color=red]january[/color][color=yellow]may[/color] year = 1512 }
	offset = 30
	deathdate = { day = 22 month = september year = 1520 }

	action_a = {
		name = "ACTIONNAME301503A" #They are weak!
		command = { type = relation which = MAM value = -200 }
		command = { type = relation which = DUL value = -200 }
		command = { type = inf which = -1[color=yellow]225[/color] value = 3000 } [color=yellow]#random province in Anatolia area[/color]
		command = { type = trigger which = 219007 } #MAM: Our Ottoman Neighbors
	}
}
 
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