Eight months since I last came to this board, and I'm glad I chose this AAR to catch up on first. You've done a brilliant job
In war everything is simple. And indeed, ever since the day of the German declaration of war on the Soviet Union, Italy has been in a do-or-die situation.
Some delay was gained through the strategic surprise achieved by the Germans, though war in Dacia and in Anatolia was as much of a surprise to Italy as it had been to the Soviets. Though on the whole Italy should be happy the British failed to discern the German designs against the Soviet Union: had they known and postponed the admission of Spain on the Allies' side by six months, Italy would have been in a hard position to salvage much in Iberia besides Gibraltar and maybe their south-eastern foothold. Fortunately the Empire was spared this great trial of its strength.
More time was gained through the gallant efforts of Italy's naval and land forces in Anatolia and in Dacia. The deaths of tens of thousands of Italian soldiers were anything but in vain, as these bought the Empire over a year before it would actually be forced to 'do or die' - a precious delay which profited Italy's armies and allowed them to reach the peak of their might.
However we must be very careful not to assign to those gains of time the attributes of a victory. Wars are not won by evacuations. At this point there is very little land left which the Italian armies can trade for time. Illyria is on both Italy and Germany's doorstep. Though defeat in Illyria still leaves Italy in solid defensible positions, its fall would spell certain doom for Germany and, indeed, for Italy as well.
Mussolini's fateful decision to keep the dockyards and airplane manufactures running at the expense of a surge in the Regio Esercito's size may now come back to haunt Italy. For surely there was no point expanding the fleet further at this time, when it was already strong enough to dominate the Mediterranean, the Red and Black Seas, and the Western and Northern Indian oceans. For presently no increase in the Regia Marina will stop the Soviet Tide from flooding Austria and Germany - nor, indeed, will this dike hold should the Red Army mass four hundred or more brigades against the Italian peninsula. And after the loss of so much at the Soviet hands there is a limit to how much of Italy the Regio Esercito can lose, for what would be the worth of a fleet and overseas possessions in Iberia and in Africa when most of Italy is subjugated and starving? Certainly the Italian people would give up the fight, no matter how loyal to their Duce they may be.
The hour is dark, my friends. For the two hundred thousand valiant Italians guarding the doorstep of Italy are also the custodians of almost all of Europe. Should they fail, there will be little left to stop Communist tyranny from subjugating all the ancient and glorious nations of Europe. Let us therefore pray that these valiant men shall never be broken.
