Explorations in Strategy - Italy at War

[Myth]

Baltasar: Yeah, it should be fun, hopefully!

Jorath13: Albania has made the move from event to decision, and one I can only take after the end of 1938. So it's my choice when to take that little country. I suppose I will take it, it can't really hurt at the moment.

Maj. von Mauser: I'm sure I will be improving my air force in the future, the problem is that most plane tech really touches off in 1939 anyway, and is typically of high difficulty compared to army and ship tech. Plus, my continual production of CAGs is increasing my single engine plane practical quite a bit, which will make that research go by much quicker, notwithstanding even the deterioration of my aeronautical engineering over the years. It's not that I've forgotten air tech, it's just that I haven't found it worth researching yet compared to naval and land tech, which I think are more important, especially at this early stage.

[Myth]

The Year of Aggression
Part 1: Technology, January – June, 1939

Due to the particular timeline of the new year, the greater proportion of events fell into its latter half. Because of this, it is conducive to first examine the advances in technology and doctrine that influenced certain events later. This period of six months continued Mussolini’s broadening of research effort in his effort to bring the rest of Italy's armed forces to readiness. However, this aim was slightly complicated by the tendency of one piece of technology to act as a starting point for any number of other concepts and devices. Mussolini had by this point begun finding that there was constantly more and more to research and develop than previously. Would Italy keep up?

The first advances illustrate perfectly the friction of the dual nature of Italian development. On the 18th, two projects were completed. The first was another iteration of aircraft carrier armor, by Cantieri. The latter was the completion of a general staff study, the second on an operational level doctrine. The former represented the waning focus of Italian research, the latter the waxing emphasis. This is, of course, in relative terms. Naval research held such a predominant position for the first two and a half years of Italian development under Mussolini’s renaissance that any increase in research in any other field would necessarily lead to a decrease in naval fields. Mussolini was not yet, however, prepared to abandon naval development yet. He ordered both these projects continued: the general staff began studying for a further increase in efficiency in their operational level doctrine and Cantieri began working on even further improved aircraft carrier armor.


Two advances that well illustrate the friction in Italy’s research and development.

March continued with the mixed research results. Over the course of the month Cantieri returned contracts, successfully completed, for aircraft carrier engines, anti-aircraft armament, and hangars. Mussolini ordered all three contracts continued. However, at the end of the month the general staff completed another study, this one on special forces such as paratroopers, mountaineers or marines. though Mussolini could not help but feel like the study would have been more valuable or quicker in coming if it had eschewed paratroopers, as Italy did not have any nor would it, the general staff insisted upon studying paratroopers as well. The study was anticipated to result in improved for Italy’s mountain divisions, as well as the marine divisions Mussolini still hoped to create. Mussolini did not continue the study, but instead ordered that Macchi develop an air-launched torpedo for use with Italy’s naval bombers and its carrier air groups.


The first step in the development of Italy’s elite forces.

The first half of April, too, was replete with advances in technology or doctrine. Fiat returned with a new infantry support weapon on the 2nd, which was anticipated to lead to a marked increase in infantry defensive capabilities. Mussolini ordered that another iteration of a mechanical computing machine be developed, which would lead to marginally quicker research capabilities. Soon after, Italian industry reported that its oil refining and coal processing technologies and techniques were improved once again. These initiatives were replaced by another initiative concerning supply production, and by a contract for an improved decryption machine. This period of twelve days ended with the publication of a general staff study on civil defense. In addition to preparing the public for war, it prepared for damage to Italian infrastructure and repair measures when necessary as well as increasing Italian understanding of recent combat experience. Mussolini ordered that a more advanced version of an encryption machine be built, to further secure Italian communications from blackguards who attempt to intercept and decrypt communications.


The initial development of civil defense in Italy.

After this first development in civil defense, research output slowed down. This is not to say that the research that finished later was unimportant—far from it, as the case actually is—but there was simply a much smaller volume of it. It took another half month before the general staff completed another study, again in infantry warfare. The general staff was becoming proficient in the output of good analytical pieces of research and imagination. This one was no different. Its changes, once implemented, would streamline infantry division organization and make it more capable of handling the challenges of modern warfare. Mussolini ordered the study developed further. Possibly the most important research development of the entire six months, however, came at the very end. On the 19th of May, Italy achieved its first working radar prototype. Mussolini immediately began making plans for their construction and deployment, and indeed ordered a massive radar array to be built at Cartagena. He also authorized another increase in Italian industrial efficiency.


Italy has achieved true modernity with its development of radar.

As can be seen, many important improvements were either completed or ordered during this period of six months. Important studies in doctrine or organization improved Italy’s battlefield or operational abilities. Important technological developments have improved future aircraft carrier capabilities, though these improvements pale next to the significance of radar. Under Mussolini, Italy was pushing toward a technological future, particularly in the important aspects of information and information security. He was already envisaging a Mediterranean Sea swept by radar, as well as ship-borne and possibly even airborne radar.

[BoemsiBoemsie]

Italy is doing a fine job on the tech front. Im looking forward to a confrontation with the Royal Navy!

[Baltasar]

I'd assume the British, if they have any spare time, will be deeply worried about those technological advances. Combined with the occupation of spots near Gibraltar and their infrastructurical upgrades, those news should indeed sent shockwaves through Paris and London.

Btw, any news about the painter guy leading Germany?

[Maj. von Mauser]

Who cares about Hitler.

Some good advances, Radar is certainly something to celebrate.

[Myth]

BoemsiBoemsie: Yeah, the eventual confrontation should be fun.

Baltasar: There'll be news eventually. Update after next, I believe.

Maj. von Mauser: Well, people don't care now but they will soon! And yes, radar in particular is magnificent to have.

[Merrick Chance']

Are you going to try to blitz Yugoslavia before the beginning of the war, or are you going to focus your pre-war abilities and time on Spain?

[AreoHotah]

I think radar is one of the greatest improvements! It helps in so many ways. It has saved my bacon several times

[Myth]

Merrick Chance': I was planning on the latter, broadly speaking.

AreoHotah: I anticipate that radar will become very useful, yes.

I'll see if I can have an update for tonight! However, classes begin today as well.

[Myth]

The Year of Aggression
Part 2: Foreign Politics, January – June, 1939

Concurrently with the important technological and conceptual developments already mentioned occurred many significant events in international relations that shaped the direction the continent of Europe would take for the next several years. By the end of June, Europe would find itself on the verge of a revolution in geopolitics as the old order began crumbling under the weight of not one but two ascending new orders.

On the 11th of January, somewhat impatient for new victories and calculating that the Allies would let it by without overly much comment, Mussolini forced the annexation of Albania. This gave him a presence on the far southern Adriatic coast next to Yugoslavia and Greece. However, the annexation seems to have not been made for any clear strategic purpose: the port was too small to support any force larger than a corps at most, which had the potential of making Albania a glorified prison camp—such as Salonika had been during the First World War—rather than an important jumping off point for further operations. Albania’s neighbors did not react well to this move by Italy, nor did the British or the French. None of them, however, acted further than issuing notes of displeasure. Furthermore, the backlash united Italian opinion to a minor extent and contributed to a lowering of Italian neutrality.


Albania was annexed early in January.

At the same time this was happening, in the Far East, China was proving far more resilient than expected, given Japan’s recent successes in the north. Shanxi, which had fallen to the Japanese in late October or early November, was reconquered by the Communist Chinese by the 2nd of January. This, however, did not mark Japan’s nadir in China for three weeks later forces of the Guangxi Clique landed at Taipei and conquered the northern third of Formosa! It became evident to Mussolini that Britain would not be distracted overly much by Japan in the coming years, given its obvious incompetence against the Chinese.


Goings-on in China which were very detrimental to Japan, and indirectly to Italy

Events began hurrying by the end of April and the beginning of May. Germany invaded Poland, leading the Allies into war with Germany. Numerous countries in Europe mobilized upon this news. Switzerland led the way, mobilizing first, only a week into the war. Denmark followed suit a week after that. Finland, Luxembourg and Belgium mobilized in mid-June. Simultaneously, Italy began being embargoed by numerous states, given its friendly relations with Germany, even though Italy was as yet neutral. France led the way on this front with its announcement of embargo on the 10th of May, followed quickly by Britain within a week. Poland did so at the end of May, and Ireland and South Africa joined in late June. These embargoes did not affect Italy’s position much, as none of these countries ranked amongst Italy’s trading partners.


Embargo!

More worrisome than the embargoes was the growing strength of the Allies. Canada joined in early June, and Mexico in late June. If Germany anticipated waging economic warfare by attacking British convoys, the alliance of these two states to Britain made the Atlantic a much more dangerous place as it gave the British bases and forces to deploy in the north Atlantic, as well as the central Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. It would also complicate Italy’s own future naval strategies, once the Mediterranean was secure for many of the same geostrategic reasons. The Gibraltar Strait opened up into the Atlantic between Mexico and Canada, and with Britain looming over the shoulder of Europe. Nowhere would be safe for the Regia Marina, it would have to fight for command of the sea wherever it went. Mussolini was yet unsure whether the Regia Marina would be able to stand such stress for long.


Canada joining the Allies.

Finally, to complete the disarray of Europe, the Soviet Union swallowed the eastern half of Poland by mid-June, and had also annexed the three Baltic States of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Though neutral in the war, they too were looming over Europe with an eye for taking territory where it could. The Finns, indeed, had begun mobilization in case the Soviets orchestrated any sort of provocations on the border. Furthermore, the Chinese Communists joined the Comintern late in June, thus giving the Soviets a diplomatic foothold in the Far East, and one more powerful than their enclave of civilization at Vladivostok.


The Baltic States were annexed by the Soviet Union.

The geopolitical situation in Europe was in complete chaos by the end of June. Europe was at war, its geography transformed. Albania, Poland, and the three Baltic States vanished from the map. Italy, Germany and the Soviet Union expanded by varying amounts, respectively. Europe was at war, Germany again the centerpiece of the conflict. This time, however, Germany was fighting a one front war; the Allies had rejected the prospect of invading Germany and forcing them to split their forces to actively deal with two threats at once. Both Italy and the Soviet Union were taking advantage of, and would take further advantage of, the chaos of this new European war to further their own aims.

[Kman211]

Things are sure heating up!

Wow, Mexico joining the Allies? How unexpected. I guess Germany hasn't asked you to join in the fray?

[Baltasar]

So what will the Duce do next? Declaring war on the Allies would seem a bit too much of a stress test at the moment, better wait until Germany has at least knocked out France.

Yougoslavia, Greece, Bulgaria and Romania are tempting targets and would secure a strong foothold for the Italian Empire, completely securing both the Adria, the Aegaeic (sp?) Sea and openening a door into the Black Sea, the former grain stock of old Greece.

Other than those there's little to do for the Italian forces right now.

[Maj. von Mauser]

Well, we have the war at last! How long will Italy stand at peace?

[Myth]

Kman211: Things are heating up indeed. Germany hasn't asked me yet, or I've just not noticed yet. Either one.

Baltasar: Declaring war on the Allies is not my immediate intention. As you say, it would be a bit much at this point. As for the Balkans...we'll see.

Maj. von Mauser: The important question isn't how long at peace, but how long at peace with who.

[Pier]

Germany always declares war on the 1st of May: the event AI needs work.
Now Winter war will be Summer War.

[Rensslaer]

Looking forward to seeing which direction you go with this!

Do you actually have any radar stations to use the technology? Where will you place them?

Rensslaer

[n.y.o]

Yugoslavia is there for the taking. And then on further into the Balkans!

[Judas Maccabeus]

Well, WW2's started early as usual. Not many places left to expand, though... unless a good opportunity shows up, of course.

Incidentally, for your excellent work on this AAR so far, you're the WritAAR of the Week this week. Feel free to wander over to the pertinent thread and accept people's congratulations.

[Myth]

Pier: Indeed! Though this may actually work to my favor. We'll see as events unfold.

Rensslaer: Nope, that was the tech that allows me to build radar stations. I'm certainly planning on building some, this will get covered in my next tech/production update. As for where I go now, that'll be revealed in the update after next.

n.y.o: Perhaps, perhaps.

Judas Maccabeus: Indeed, I must be opportunistic to get some good action before war really kicks off. But then, I'm an opportunistic bastard. And writer of the week! I shall get over there post-haste!

I'll try to have an update for tomorrow evening, folks!

[Myth]

The Year of Aggression
Part 3: War over Danzig, May 1 – June 9, 1939

Before turning our focus back to Italy’s own acts during this year of aggression, it may behoove us to look in closer detail at some of the war-making already occurring in Europe. The first of these campaigns was the German invasion of Poland over the question of Danzig. It was this city, and its future, which plunged Europe into carnage and began its reshaping.

The war began on the 1st of May, though Mussolini never received a formal notice. Its beginning passed him by until he happened to notice news of the war in Italian newspapers, in a strange reversal of roles. This discovery was on the 5th, by which point the Germans had already begun overrunning the southwest corner of Poland, which apparently lay completely undefended. Elsewhere along the frontier, German and Polish troops were locked in combat: half of the border between East Prussia and Poland was ablaze, as was most of the Silesian-Polish border. Mussolini immediately dispatched a handful of general staff officers to observe the campaign, mostly to gauge how competent the Wehrmacht was against a second-rate foe such as Poland. He himself began periodically requesting compilation reports of the fighting. Already on the 5th he could see what the Germans were going to do: a wide envelopment of all of western Poland from the southwest.


The German invasion of Poland had begun!

Within five days, Mussolini could be sure of his judgment. Krakow had fallen and, while the Germans made some progress in the west and north, the Polish line was only just barely beginning to form in the southwest as the Poles threw units into that area to desperately try to halt the German advance. While Warsaw was already being threatened from the north, it seemed most likely that it would fall by the push from the southwest: a full German armored corps was racing northward. Nevertheless, in the west and north the Polish frontline was being hammered hard, though it was not broken. The Poles were proving themselves to be doughty fighters and did not like to give up the ground of their homeland if they could possibly avoid it.


The invasion of Poland progressing, with great signs of collapse already evident in the southwest.

By the 19th, barely any progress had been made in the north. In the west, the Germans had pushed forward though still had not actually penetrated the Polish line. In the southwest, however, the German advance was an unstoppable tide. German units were racing into the undefended tracts of eastern Poland, and German armor was pushing ever closer to Warsaw despite stiffening Polish resistance. Western Poland was becoming a bag, in which numerous Polish units were soon to be trapped: the lock was Warsaw, and it would soon be in danger.


The Germans pushing their advance hard everywhere except the north.

Three days after this report, another came that promised a quick end to the conflict. The bag of western Poland had shrunk, but many units were unlikely to escape it as the German spearheads proved faster than the routed Polish. Warsaw found itself besieged from north and from south as the Germans began a minor breakout from East Prussia. Eastern Poland lay invitingly open, though the Germans were focused enough not to dedicate more than a minor selection of units to its conquest. All that territory was to go to the Soviet Union any way, Germany had no real incentive to push much farther eastward than it already had, which in itself was already verging on too far. The Polish Army was in a state too far gone to do more than desperately stand in place and fight to the last bullet. By this sad point there was no way that it could possibly hope to survive, even if the Allies did forcefully intervene, which they were not by any stretch of the imagination.


The Poles were, by this point, most very definitely losing.

Nevertheless, that capability that the Polish Army did have it utilized to the very utmost. It resisted stoutly for over two more weeks, pushing Germany’s victory to the second week of June. Germany, stymied at Warsaw, pushed ever eastward, occupied Lvov and nearly reached the old Polish-Soviet border. The Poles thrive on desperate situations. The entire course of their sad history comprised of a succession of forlorn, glorious last stands against invaders or occupiers, including many notable rebellions against Russian occupation in the 17th and 18th centuries. Though Mussolini had been taken aback by the tenacity and length of the Polish resistance, if he had been even cursorily acquainted with Polish history he would not have been overly surprised. Polish romanticism thrives on the tragedy of the impossible conflict, and this war was merely one episode in a long series. The Poles did not give up; hundreds of thousands fled abroad, to France or to Britain, to recover and dream of their resurgence.


Poland, consumed by Germany and the Soviet Union.

After the conclusion of this war, Mussolini did not pull his observers back yet but instead ordered them westward. Germany, concurrently with the latter weeks of the invasion of Poland, had begun a limited foray against the Maginot Line and had managed to breach it. Additionally, there were rumors afloat that an invasion of the Low Countries was in the works. There was yet more to observe. Additionally, Mussolini was not yet satisfied that the Allies were fully engaged with Germany to move yet himself. He would wait, and watch, for a little while longer.