Explorations in Strategy - Italy at War

Myth said:

foriavik: They [the caucasus oilfields] would be a nice target, don't you agree?

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Given the inactivity and incompetence of the Germans, and the number of brigades the Italians have, it's entirely reasonable to aim somewhat higher than that and race the Germans to the surrender point.

Myth said:

The Soviet army was reduced to a point at which not strong enough, for a while at least, to be able to hold all fronts. Stalin and STAVKA would have to make sacrifices, would have to make hard decisions. Would they be able to do it?

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That should be easy enough. Take soldiers away from the German front. Uncle Joe can be sure they'll never attack there.

Interesting program - I'm drawn to the 'Nostalgia & Myth' panel for some unknown reason..

Well done in the pocket, it is all that I imagined it could be.

I shudder to think what is happening on the German front, with all the Germans in Illyria and Dacia. Do the forces now return to Germany, or stay and drain your supplies? Have the Soviets moved to the attack there, or are they still moving to the Dacian front?

Thank God, finally the Balkans have been liberated

Where are the German armies moving to, now that there is no hostile presence left on the Balkans? Are they finally trying to earn their money and advance from the Italian positions northward? Or are they just, yet again, milling about uselessly? What about those lended troops from Adolf, can you put them to good use? Once Bitter Peace fires, Germany will still win everything :/

Unless Mussolini is faster, of course

A loss that big must even hurt the Soviets. However, I fear that their ai will try to protect all, leaving all fronts weakened.
On that note, how strong are the Soviets in Anatolia?

Here's hoping the Germans finally make a push on their front as the Soviets strip units to face you. Have you still not seen any divisions in Anatolia or Ukraine?

Also, I looked at the program for that Glasgow conference. How do you manage get into those things? I'm so jealous.

I ll read whole thread later.My first try at HOI3 (although I rock at HOI2) is with Italy, so far I have half the world and getting ready for the Philipines!I ll sure read this Nice work.

Time to take out Hungary. A great way to repay them for their usefulness so far is to empress them into your empire.

|Alison Turnbull (Strathclyde) ‘Glasgow’s War and Masculine Identities in the Reserved Occupations 1939-1945: Recovering Regional Experience in Oral Narratives and Public History’
|Christopher Miller (Balliol, Oxford) ‘The Clydeside Naval Arms Industry and Local Political Attitudes Towards Rearmament, 1931-1939’

Obviously from me picking out these papers you can observe that my broad interest is social history rather than strategic studies. Good papers, good coverage. Nice conference then, I think it is reasonable to say that the states system supporting war was unmodified from Waterloo onwards, though the totality of war variety depending on geography, politics, production output, perceived risk by states to their continued function.

Hope you enjoyed it and your paper received the attention it deserves, which if it shares a quality with this AAR compared genre to genre, must be rich, high and well written.

Looking forward to your simulation of Mussolini's next strategic conceit. Mussolini has had relatively limited rather than grandiose strategic ambitions so far. Given how much "gaming" could occur, I suspect his ambitions will be in line with his capacity to exert strategic force comprised of "historically" viable operations, rather than gamey plays. As such, from the unique strategic position in this AAR I wonder what such a strategic operation this would be. Given the over commitment to the greater Balkan theatre, he is locked into an emphasis on war with Russia. Redirecting attention towards Britain or the Colonial Periphery would not achieve strategic effect within the year planning cycle Mussolini is running. Thus Mussolini is locked into making strategic decisions in relation to the Soviet Union.

So far Mussolini's grand strategy has been a combination of adventurism towards small states, and a defensive perimeter geopolitically towards great powers. There are no small states to adventure with (Hungary would be insanity, its role as a neutral was decisive in protecting the Balkans and Italy itself). The defensive perimeter in relation to Great Britain is secure. The defensive arrangements in relation to Germany are moderately secure (at risk only due to a failure of the German state to conduct a strategic defence). Thus Mussolini seems locked into expanding a defensive perimeter in relation to the Soviet Union.

I propose that Mussolini will be compelled to use predominance at sea to use outside lines to attack sites in the Black Sea, thus distracting the Soviet Union from the German front. An advance into Central and Eastern Europe by land will not achieve strategic effect unless the capacity of the Soviet state to defend itself has been utterly shattered. Such a condition would allow for even the German state to conduct the construction of a perimeter on Italy's behalf, regaining strategic choice for Italy. This condition will not come to pass due to the weak willed defensive nature of the German grand strategy.

Italy will be forced into peripheral, and in a grand strategic sense distracting, attacks on the Southern borders of the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. This alone will be insufficient to cement a defensive perimeter against the Soviet Union. Thus, unable to direct attention to smashing the British State apparatus, Mussolini will _still_ be losing the war.

I'd like to see the next operation, to retake Turkey, and continue towards Baku, just forward that "front" to the mountains above Baku and bodering the black sea, that way you'll probably have a border with the UK (persia) too, but it will least over extend your troops.
Moving into the Ukraine, will only over extend your troops further in my eyes.

/Krogzar

You should consider taking India. Some resources, a lot of IC, a blow to the British. It might bring you into conflict with China, though...Maybe after taking South Africa? -And please don't take Hungary..Is anybody guaranteeing them?

Well, that was neatly done in the end. Does the enemy have many troops in the Crimea? That can be a ripe spot for knocking off a few more divisions.

Defence is difficult and withdrawal extremely dangerous. This AAR is great because it has dealt with these conditions and progressed.

The balance between being gamey and taking advantage of conditions is a difficult one. Creating an army of paratroopers is gamey but every HOI3 game is different and we need to adjust to those differences. In real history, Italy was a weak ally of Germany. In this game, the situation has been reversed. You can not ignore Germany's failure to prosecute the war aggressively but then limit youself to what Italy might have done in WW2. In this reality, it is Italy that has the strategic imagination, planning and committment to achieve victory.

For my part, if a drive into Russia is not achievable, a few more nails into the coffin of the British Empire should suffice. Removing South Africa and/or India from the Allies, would give Mussolini the colonies and empire he has long sought and undermine the ability of the Allies to prosecute a war against him.

Oh.. what about the US? I forget when you last mentioned them?

Krogzar said:

I'd like to see the next operation, to retake Turkey...

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Why? what has Turkey got that means it's more important than defeating Russia?

Moving into the Ukraine, will only over extend your troops further in my eyes.

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There are, IIRC 6 or 7 armies of Italians operating in the Balkans at the moment. Even if these are all 3x3, that's 50-60 Divisions which is entirely adequate to form a battlefront in the Southern USSR and drive north on Moscow while still having enough forces to push east to Stalingrad. Enough has been torn out of the Russians that there will be no strategic reserve worth a damn and once units start getting siphoned off from in front of the Germans, the collapse will begin. The only issue is that Italy doesn't have many fast units, and so grabbing enough territory and IC to be the ones receiving the inevitable Russian surrender is going to be more difficult than if there were a few fast Divisions to lead the way.

I know Mussolini's initial ambitions were to challenge the British Empire, but having the Russian powerhouse to tap in order to build for that objective would be mighty handy.

(Womble) :"Enough has been torn out of the Russians that there will be no strategic reserve worth a damn and once units start getting siphoned off from in front of the Germans, the collapse will begin."
Thats two assumptions. Although I grant the high likelyhood of the first being correct, I am quite unsure both : Soviet has lost NO ground or industri at all in this game (only for a few months as Italy had a quick adventure in southern russia -so they have had a high manpower regain for a long time. There seems to have been no Soviet adventurism (costing manpower) in China/Korea, either..And even IF the first assumption of yours is correct, the second one, that the Germans should suddenly do something meaningful is..a stretch

womble said:

that's 50-60 Divisions which is entirely adequate to form a battlefront in the Southern USSR and drive north on Moscow

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Don't forget that those divisions need to be supplied through Dacia, which has taken quite a beating in infrastucture over the past 3 years. That worked to Italy's advanage in the first move against the Red Army, and the air campaign against infra was a key component in the most recent one. It will work against Italy in the next phase of attacking toward Moscow, especially if the German 'cousins' remain in the south.
Additionally, if Italy attacks now toward Moscow, the front will rapidly expand, move away from naval air support, and shorten Moscow's lines so that any reserve will be able to be applied more quickly. Without a German move, this would definitely be a challenge.

FrodoB said:

Don't forget that those divisions need to be supplied through Dacia, which has taken quite a beating in infrastucture over the past 3 years. That worked to Italy's advanage in the first move against the Red Army, and the air campaign against infra was a key component in the most recent one. .

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aye, this is where infra bombing can be a double edged sword. Yes you can stop an attack on you in its tracks, and tie the enemy down in the sort of provinces were reinf and org regain is slow. But if you advance, this wasteland then lies behind you and damages your advance.

One option worth exploring would be to stop the Italian balkan offensive just behind the bombed out corridor. Then use naval landings at Odessa and Sevastopol to open up new supply routes for any offensive in the Ukraine. The risk is that the Germans get frisky and advance forward connecting up the two zones.