Explorations in Strategy - Italy at War

[Myth]

Vann the Red: Well, yes and no. I mean, by that point victory wasn't a surprise. But Mussolini tends to do this thinking about war aims before he goes to war and didn't really adjust his thoughts concerning Abyssinia to the new strategic situation he wanted. Either way really, though, the troops were going home.

Enewald: Iberia does await, a bit. As for Siam, it's a bit far away. Plus, I get a DOW penalty to neutrality since it's on another continent!

VILenin: Exactly, Abyssinia was a cock-up by the old Mussolini. The new one is much more aware of these things and will try to operate accordingly.

Stuyvesant: Yugoslavia's no threat to me, so I can't DOW it yet. My neutrality is still pretty high at this point too, which doesn't help.

Katarian: That bodes ill for Campioni, given that his flagship is the CA RM Zara.

Nikolai II: A nice vote of confidence. I probably could, but as yet I can't for other reasons as mentioned already.

I'll try to have an update for tomorrow morning!

[Baltasar]

Wondering what il Duce will come up with next. Most likely he'll still want Albania, it has been a Roman province for hundreds of years! Apart from that, only Turkey springs to mind, but that'll still require a lot of effort to take. And what would Mussolini want with that country?

Regarding Abyssinia, I'd at least leave a couple of Militias there to deal with revolts, they're basically worthless against a real enemy anyway.

[Stuyvesant]

Erm.. for King it was Italy with a mobilized army, and Yugoslavia without mobilization..

But of course Myth can manage it anyway.

Whoops! I thought I recalled he hadn't mobilized before declaring war... I really should check on these things before I start blurting stuff...

Shows even more I should leave strategy to the professionals.

[Nikolai II]

Nikolai II: A nice vote of confidence. I probably could, but as yet I can't for other reasons as mentioned already.

Only reason to join Axis - you get a 25 point rebate on declaring pointless wars

(And you need spies to reduce your neutrality, and to increase Yugo threat)

And Stuyvesant - I'm only almost certain that he had mobilized Italy before DoWing, since I couldn't be bothered to check

[Katarian]

Katarian: That bodes ill for Campioni, given that his flagship is the CA RM Zara.

Might I suggest that he takes a few extra swimming lessons .

[Myth]

Baltasar: Albania may be nice, but it may not be. I've not given it any thought yet, and there are other targets that are fast approaching time.

Stuyvesant: Fortunately, none of us here are professionals.

Nikolai II: It's a nice little bonus for a revisionist power, 25 points off neutrality for DOWing.

Katarian: I'll pass on the suggestion.

Update coming up!

[Myth]

The Year of Development
Part 5: Politics, Domestic and Foreign, January – October, 1937

Concurrently with the war in Abyssinia, until it ended, and with all the technological progression taking place under Mussolini’s direction was a burgeoning political scene that affected Italy domestically and Europe internationally. It was during this year that Europe began splitting itself into its various blocs, and occasionally drawing in extra-European states as well into the entangling webs of alliance and promise.

Early on in January, in an announcement that surprised Mussolini in Rome, both London and Warsaw announced that Poland had joined in alliance. This was surprising because there did not seem to be any cause for such a diplomatic move from the isolationist and appeasing British government, except for a sudden paranoia that Germany was up to no good. Such paranoia thus resulted in an attempt to encircle Germany with an alliance, an approach the French had already been following for years with its own overtures to Czechoslovakia and Poland, though these were not nearly as successful as London’s sudden and unexplained diplomatic coup. Poland was joined in early May by South Africa, the first instance of a non-European country joining a European alliance. Given South Africa’s dominating isolation from Europe, Mussolini could only interpret this alliance in one way: Britain was anticipating war with Italy as well. War with Italy would, of course, close down the Mediterranean Sea as a safe route for British shipping, but alliance with South Africa would alleviate this to some extent by allowing shipping to put in at South African ports on their way around the Cape of Good Hope. This was worrisome to some degree for Mussolini; the British were obviously thinking ahead. And quite presciently, too.


Poland joins the Allies!

Also in early January, Mussolini begins putting forward feelers in Berlin as he wished to establish a Rome-Berlin Axis. Mussolini could not propose an alliance, but he could instead get the diplomatic cogs in Berlin going so that Hitler looked favorably on such a relationship. He anticipated a number of benefits from such a relationship with Germany. Firstly, it would help convince the public that war was a viable option in service to political ends. Mussolini’s thinking on this point was actually remarkably murky given his strategic clarity concerning other matters, but though it is clear that he thought it, it is unsure why he thought that joining the Axis would have such an effect on the pro-neutrality segment of the Italian population. Perhaps he anticipated, as was the case, that the pro-Axis and pro-war factions would be bolstered by such actions and would way others to their views. Secondly, alliance with Germany did not necessarily mean that Germany would gain any spoils in an Italian war, for Mussolini could decide to exclude Hitler from any wars he may fight. He also hoped that Hitler would show him the same courtesy. Musolini’s only fear was that he would not.


Italy aligning to the Axis.

Little occurred on the political front until early May when a resistance leader attempted to flee Italy by crossing over the Alps and into France but he was apprehended before reaching the impossible crags of the border due to a betrayal by one of his own men. While it was anticipated that his resistance movement would attempt an attack once he was safe, despite its relatively small size, and would not dare to act now, with its leader imprisoned, Mussolini decided that there was no sense in taking risks and ordered precautions just in case. The band was a fanatical one and might have attempted to spring their leader out of prison. Nevertheless, no untoward actions occurred. Italian intelligence services later reported that, upon the capture of the leader, the band disintegrated. He was their sole commander.


A resistance leader was captured and imprisoned.

By late June Mussolini was becoming very worried about Italy’s stocks of strategic resources. While Italy boasted nearly twenty thousand tons of fuel, she only had just over five thousand tons of coal, four thousand tons of steel, and less than three thousand tons of rare materials as well as less than three thousand tons of crude oil. Steel and rare materials stocks were dropping quickly, far too quickly for Mussolini’s comfort. He could not initiate trade deals to acquire more; other action had to be taken. On the 27th, he relieved the industrialist Guido Jung of his post as minister of industry and armament and placed himself in that position instead. Jung’s focus was on the expansion of Italian industry and was widely credited for expanding it by approximately ten percent. Useful at one point, this emphasis was doing Italy’s resource stockpiles no good; Mussolini himself focused on the stockpiles, and was later broadly credited with a five percent daily increase in resource intake. Additionally, the loss of Jung’s ten percent also reduced strain on those stockpiles.


Mussolini as armament minister.

Politics was again bereft of crises until late September, when a rebellion broke out in Abyssinia, which was not garrisoned. They claimed to be nationalists, eager to put an Abyssinian ruler back on the throne of Abyssinia. Mussolini had a momentary panic before calm and calculation reasserted themselves. He had three options. Firstly, he could send the army back in and crush the rebellion with one swift stroke. Grossi and his Armata dell’AOI were on the Egyptian-Libyan border, merely watching what went on, on the other side. Another Abyssinian campaign might have been a welcome distraction. The second option was to ignore it. This option has fallen into disrepute today but has always been perfectly legitimate policy choice. The Abyssinians would liberate Abyssinia and then Mussolini would not have to care about it any more. The third option was the one Mussolini actually went with, and it was the most Machiavellian of the three.


Rebellion in Abyssinia!

Mussolini immediately counter-proclaimed the existence an Abyssinian kingdom under an Abyssinian ruler, beholden to Rome only by ties of client-ship. The Abyssinian rebels’ nationalistic propaganda about Abyssinia for the Abyssinians immediately withered away amongst all but the educated elite, who had fled the country with Haile Selassie I after the conquest anyway. The rebellion quickly lost support and ended up disbanding as it dwindled to such an extent in the space of a week or two that even a single Italian Blackshirt patrol would have been able to arrest the remnants without much struggle. In addition, it meant that Italy would not have to supply the few Abyssinian factories. There were disadvantages too, of course. Italy could not tap Abyssinian civic leadership or resources at will, and a particularly nonsensical ruling disallowed trade as Abyssinia did not have a port even though two Italian-held ports were directly adjacent to the country.


Abyssinia as a puppet state. Minus Bahir Dar.

1937 was the year that diplomacy began working its insidious way through Europe and the continents on its periphery. Though the events thus far were few and far between, Mussolini took them as a promise of the future. Primarily, it was a promise of future danger, as the Allies looked to be increasing in friends and in strength. It was fortunate for Mussolini and Italy that neither of Britain’s new friends thus far were well-placed to intervene against Italy.

[Maj. von Mauser]

Glad to Ethiopia finally fell to the Glorious Italian Assault! To be liberated again.

Good work with the updates.

[Enewald]

The AI tends to invite allies to wars if possible. Quite silly methinks.

[Stuyvesant]

...and a particularly nonsensical ruling disallowed trade as Abyssinia did not have a port even though two Italian-held ports were directly adjacent to the country.

It's nice to see Mussolini put his money where his mouth is: he might be running a police state holding sway over millions, yet he does not place himself above the rules, no matter how much difficulty it causes him. :nods:

I think that puppeting Abyssinia is a smart idea. You didn't gain much from it and while you'll get even less now (does Abyssinia still send you their excess raw materials, even if you can't technically trade?), at least you won't have to constantly squash rebellions. If nothing else, it allows you to concentrate your energies on more productive areas/matters.

[Dakk]

Italy could not tap Abyssinian civic leadership or resources at will, and a particularly nonsensical ruling disallowed trade as Abyssinia did not have a port even though two Italian-held ports were directly adjacent to the country.

In HOI2 I would always give Abyssinia (Ethiopia) all Italian holdings in Eritrea and Somalia - is that not possible/feasible?

[Myth]

Maj. von Mauser: Yeah, kind of ironic how Abyssinia is a country again after only like half a year. And thanks!

Enewald: Damn the AI!

Stuyvesant: Yes and no. I actually lost a surprising amount of leadership when I freed Abyssinia. I was actually almost shocked to see how much my leadership went down. Ah well, just a bit less into espionage then.

Dakk: Not without editing the save game, as far as I can tell, though I didn't look too hard.

[VILenin]

Undercut the rebels by liberating their country out from under them. Sneaky.

[Myth]

VILenin: Yeah. I'm surprised it worked.

Update coming up!

[Myth]

The Year of Development
Part 6: Technology and Deployment, July – December, 1937

The second half of 1937 was, like the first half, very important in terms of technological advancement. Further more, it saw the commission and launch of two new Abruzzi-class light cruisers and Italy’s first aircraft carriers: two Aquila-class light carriers. These achievements were not, however, the final ones to cap a successful year, though they were certainly the climax.

The first advancement of this period occurred on the 11th of July when the air staff published a paper concerning naval air targeting. Though it was meant primarily for land-based bombers, it was Mussolini’s hope that Italy’s future carrier air groups would derive some use out of the treatise. He, however, realized the relative futility of theorizing on air warfare, and its impact on naval warfare, without any experience and decided against following up on this publication. He instead ordered that steel production be ramped up again, given his recent ascent to the position of minister of armament and industry. August produced numerous advancements as well: a mechanical computing machine was completed, and effort was shunted into another industrial initiative on increasing efficiency of supply production. Further, the army staff completed their study of supply organization, and Mussolini ordered the development of a code decryption machine. Perhaps the most important invention was that of radio detection equipment, which would allow the creation of signals listening posts. This effort was succeeded by the requirement for an encryption machine. Unsurprisingly, the final technological advancement of the month belonged to Cantieri: another triumph in light cruiser main armament. Instead of continuing Cantieri’s work, Mussolini ordered that Italian agriculture be made more efficient.


Radio detection equipment, arbitrarily judged the most important advance of July and August.

September saw further advance. Cantieri completed another two contracts, for light cruiser anti-aircraft armament and engines. The former contract was replaced by one for even more improved light cruiser main armament, and but the second was succeeded by another drive to improve Italian general education. It was at about this time, early September, that Cantieri completed the two new Abruzzi-class light cruisers, which sailed to join Campioni’s fleet in Palermo from the Cantieri naval yards in northern Italy. These two ships were the Giuseppe Garibaldi and the Constanzo Ciano. They showcased the technology Cantieri had developed only in late 1936, and were already one generation behind the cutting edge of Cantieri cruiser development. Soon after these successes, the army staff presented another publication to Mussolini, focused on supply transportation. Additionally, on the same day news was received that the most recent initiative to increase industrial efficiency was successful. These two projects were replaced by two more contracts to Cantieri, for further improved light cruiser anti-aircraft armament and engines.


Two of the four technological advances to take place during September.

October was a barren month for technology, but November saw more success as a small handful of technologies or initiatives were completed. Firstly, Cantieri completed their contract on improving light cruiser armor and was immediately awarded a contract to further improve it. In late November Italian industry also reported that it had increased the efficiency of its supply production, an amazingly quick success given that this order had only been given in early July! It was replaced by a contract to Cantieri to improve aircraft carrier engines. In early December, Italian industry further reported that its rare material refining techniques were made more efficient, and another contract went out to Cantieri for the development of aircraft carrier armor. The most important event to occur during November, however, was the commission and launch of two Aquila-class light carriers, the Aquila and the Sparviero. They also steamed fro northern Italy down to Campioni’s fleet at Palermo.


Campioni’s fleet, now with carriers!

Everyone of any importance in Italy turned out to watch as the two carriers came into Palermo. Mussolini, Campioni, and Pintor were all there, as were the chiefs of staff and all the other ministers. It must have been a sight indelibly printed upon their memories for ever afterward, the first true expression of Mussolini’s maritime strategy given awe-inspiring physical form. Many secret doubters converted on the spot. It seemed, after all, that Italy might have the wherewithal to go through and achieve Mussolini’s ambitions.


The RM Sparviero on its shakedown cruise from northern Italy to Palermo.

Notwithstanding the already mentioned efficiency increase in rare material refining, December was a quiet month. Everyone basked in the triumphs of Italian engineering, and were justly proud of the technological marvels they had constructed. However, at the very end of December, just as the old year passed into history and the new year arrived, so too did news of an incredible burst of advancement arrive. Five technologies or initiatives were completed! Agriculture and steel production registered efficiency improvements, both a decryption and an encryption machine were developed, and modifications to the standard Italian rifle were completed! Mussolini rushed to award new contracts in the aftermath of this final great success of the year. Cantieri received contracts to develop aircraft carrier hangars and anti-aircraft ordnance. The army staff received an order to pursue further study of supply organization, and Italian industry received directives to improve their supply production and general industrial efficiency yet again.


One final burst of technological prowess to mark the end of 1937.

Thus 1937 ended with a bang, as the saying goes. Italian research and industrial prowess was being firmly established and Italy’s star was rising in Europe. This is not the end of the year of development, however. There is still one more event that requires recounting before it all comes together almost as if a divine net had swept up all the participants and events and set them exactly so.

[VILenin]

Things seem to be progressing quite well for Italy. If I were the RN commander of the Mediterranean Fleet I'd be getting nervous about now. Of course, as long as Britain is backed up by the French Navy in the Med then Italy poses no real danger, right?

[NilsS]

The RM Sparviero on its shakedown cruise from northern Italy to Palermo.

Hm ... whats the name of the carrier on this pic?

Oh and excellent AAR, Myth

[azid]

The allies will definately have to think twice about engaging Campionis fleet now great progress will be very interesting to follow your progress !

[Beppo]

Nice cliff-hanger. One more development that ties it all together? Tell me!!!!

Looking to reduce your neutrality yet? Or are you going to focus your leadership on technology for as long as possible?

-- Beppo

[Jorath13]

Ok, with all this new tech, new ships, and advance weaponry, what are the views taken by the Brits and French? Surely they must have some concern with what the Italians are doing. Kudos and cheers to Il Duce! You've certainly turned Italy into a super power at this point. With...4 (?) carriers I think you equal the US' efforts.