Explorations in Strategy - Italy at War

[Zanziabar]

*Puts on Armchair Strategy Hat*
*Smokes Pipe*

It would a be a good idea to comprise a list of what we think Myth is likely to use.
We know that's he isn't likely to employ gamey tactics to gain a superior advantage.
We know he is likely to employ a "moderately" historical method.
finally we know that he's most likely going to attack in a area where he can bring his mobile air superiority to bear.

The only option that immediately strikes out would be raiding action in the Crimea and limited operations against the Ukraine and Causcus. Although that being said I also think that Myth could re-attempt the baiting trick in Turkey which would drain further enemy strategic reserves.

Comedy Option: Myth trains paratroopers and uses them to seize Leningrad, Moscow, Stalingrad in a 24 hour blitz

[Thomas Kenobi]

I think the destruction of an entire Soviet Front is an opportunity, that should not be allowed to go unexploited. While it is true, that the infrastructure in Dacia is in shambles at the moment, even a small advance in southern Ukraine, for the sole purpose of enlarging the front, will force the Soviets to divert large numbers of troops from the Polish front and possibly allow the Germans to make a move of their own.

That does not preclude the simultaneous execution of other operations, diversionary or not. Specifically, landings in the Crimea and an advance through Turkey with 2-3 army corps (incl. the Italian Alpini divisions) to threaten the southern Caucasus region.

None of these operations need actually reach their targets. In fact, the forces in the Ukraine are unlikely to go very far, until the Dacian infra is repaired, the Crimean forces will be too few to move beyond the natural bottlenecks in the peninsula and the Turkey army will be severely hampered by the low infrastructure in the Anatolian regions, as demonstrated by your earlier operations in that area. All that, however, is immaterial. The objective is to stretch the Soviet forces thin, by expanding the front and threatening critical areas, i.e. the coal rich provinces of the Ukraine and the oilfields of Baku.

Taking Italian naval supremacy into account, neither the Crimean nor the Turkish operations are excessively risky, since forces there can be speedily evacuated by sea, in case of an emergency, thus allowing you to fall back to Istanbul and the bottleneck between Hungary and the Black Sea. Imho the greatest risk here is acting too cautiously and failing to exploit the presented opportunity.


PS: @Myth: Damn you sir! This AAR is so terribly exciting, that I was thoroughly disappointed by my own Italy game, when it failed to live up to these elevated standards!

[kmonk99]

I agree with Myth that an incautious move into the Ukrainian hinterlands is too risky without proper German support. Since the Germans cannot be counted on to conduct a proper offensive in this scenario, the most likely result of such an action will be the very same as the earlier adventures into Crimea.

On the other hand, Turkey still has some strategic importance. Not so much for the Italians, but the Soviets, who could make use of the ports in southern Anatolia to harass Italian shipping to Africa and the rest of the Mediterranean.

It would seem that a good course of action would be to retake Anatolia and continue east to the Caspian Sea. This Offensive would offer the Italians an opportunity to pull Soviet resources away from the western front entirely.

[reis91]

Comedy Option #2 - Landing in Archangel'sk

Now seriously, commitment of a few divisions in hit n run attacks in the Crimea area, with the purpose of hitting what's left of soviet industry/logistics in that region, and secondarily drawing soviet attention away from Germany, it would be a quite appealing strategy for Benito, I think...

[Kanitatlan]

I would have said the obviously most effective strategy is rinse and repeat but I suspect the German forces present in the Balkan theatre will not cooperate with this. Having said that, the main objective of Italian action (against the Soviets at least) needs to be their army. Myth clearly recognises this principal from the statements made previously about giving up space to obtain a more defensible position.

In reality Italy will only be completely successful against the Soviets when Germany is and if the force destroyed has enough impact we might be at a stage when this can be achieved. However, it is a great pity that Italian strategic capability cannot be directed against the northern flank as that offers another opportunity for exactly the same style of strategic defeat to eliminate a large Soviet force and in that case an allied nation.

[FrodoB]

In reality Italy will only be completely successful against the Soviets when Germany is ...it is a great pity that Italian strategic capability cannot be directed against the northern flank

It has been suggested that myth send a small force to the Sov/Ger border and instigate an attack, which might be enough to get the ball rolling. He hasn't thus far seemed interested in the option. And that would tend to be a gain more for Germany than Italy. Myth probably would look for something to expand Italy's borders if possible. ( ... I'm making the mistake again of trying to channel myth - that never works out well )

[Kanitatlan]

It has been suggested that myth send a small force to the Sov/Ger border and instigate an attack, which might be enough to get the ball rolling. He hasn't thus far seemed interested in the option. And that would tend to be a gain more for Germany than Italy. Myth probably would look for something to expand Italy's borders if possible. ( ... I'm making the mistake again of trying to channel myth - that never works out well )

But my point would be that Italy cannot safely expand into Russia in conditions where Germany cannot so the Russian army needs taking down one way or another, territory comes later. I find Myth's moves fairly predictable since I've been following this but there is now, for me at least, considerable unpredictability about germany behaviour which muddies the waters somewhat.

[reis91]

Perhaps letting the soviets drive a wedge between Italian and German-held lines, so USSR commits there, and Germany also commits (since the wedge would also be in their territory). Apply air power in obscene dosages, and mop up.

Any Italian intel () about Soviet MP reserves?

[li2co3]

I find Myth's moves fairly predictable since I've been following this

While I agree, the main pleasure in reading has been Myth's articulation of the justification behind his strategic decisions in the language of strategic decision making. Similarly there is a great pleasure in watching Myth execute his strategic plans beautifully, and with an incisive pleasure in discussing the structure of formations, coherency of front, etc.

Moreover, while I agree that Myth's strategic decisions have been predictable, the accomplishment of successfully completing them has not been predictable. Particularly impressive to me was Myth's accomplishing the magnificent operational defences leading to a secure position.

[Stuyvesant]

I don't believe I've posted in a while, so allow me to say bravo to the destruction of the Soviets in the Balkans. Color me impressed.

Next time I'll try to have an actual substantive comment.

[Myth]

So this is what happens when one's dodgy internet dies for a day! Moths are driven to the flame!

Krogzar: Indeed, as most people have been saying, there is a bit of a problem of where to go now. I haven't quite decided yet myself, so it should be fairly interesting.

BlitzMartinDK: India might be an option, though a far away one. As for Hungary, I dunno if anyone is guaranteeing them but really, would it matter?

Jemisi: The Soviets seem quite bereft of troops in the areas near me.

shepherd352: Though on the other hand, the issues of going after the British without first decisively dealing with the Soviets are fairly obvious and somewhat legion. I can fight on two fronts, but would it be a good idea to land a heavy blow on one front and then shift to the other?

BlitzMartinDK: They're still neutral.

womble: Well, those seven armies hold about half a million men. They may be a bit stretched doing all that even given Soviet deficiencies, possible German support (inasmuch as they follow me) and my own operational skill.

BlitzMartinDK: To be fair, I think they tried to do something slightly meaningful in Finland. They just failed.

FrodoB: Since when have I shrunk from a challenge?

loki100: Indeed, the Dacian neck may be a bit of a question mark.

FrodoB: The grand pocket: from Archangelsk to Batum!

Zanziabar: Those would be a long twenty-four hours, given that I'd need to develop paratroopers first, and then train them.

Thomas Kenobi: Interesting thoughts you offer here. And I'll consider myself damned!

kmonk99: Such a move would also put me between the Soviets and the Persians, though admittedly the Persian army was probably destroyed to a large extent in Illyria.

reis91: It might be appealing, but does that mean it's the best? Tricky question.

Kanitatlan: Interestingly, it may be possible that the Soviet army has been so damaged in the past two years that their army may not be able to handle a fully active front while still satisfactorily holding two quiescent ones. I think their army's breaking point is fairly near, and just another push or two may cause the whole edifice to collapse and turn the war into a land grab. We'll see.

FrodoB: I'll be damned if I do the Germans' work for them!

Kanitatlan: Indeed. Previously, my moves were very much shaped by geography but now geography is beginning to work against me, leaving me with not obvious options, but a plethora on the table.

reis91: So basically, get the Soviets into Hungary? And as for Soviet manpower, I assume it's probably on its last legs by now. We'll see how well they reform their army in 1945.

li2co3: Indeed, the theory of strategy and what one might have to do in strategy to accomplish some aim, is fairly different from the actual practice and action of strategy. There's friction, there's enemy action and so on that are all the difference between war on paper and war in actuality (or perhaps, virtuality).

Stuyvesant: Glad to see you again. And yeah, I guess it was pretty good.

Okay, I think I got everyone! Sorry for the short comments to such worthy posts, but I've really got to begin getting ready for work now! Next update will be, connection willing, Saturday evening!

[FrodoB]

Alright!!! Getting back to work!! More 'Explorations..' by ..wait..what? Saturday??

By 'work' you actually meant 'WORK'?

This internship thing may not be as good as I thought initially.

Best of luck

[womble]

(Womble) :"Enough has been torn out of the Russians that there will be no strategic reserve worth a damn and once units start getting siphoned off from in front of the Germans, the collapse will begin."
Thats two assumptions. Although I grant the high likelyhood of the first being correct, I am quite unsure both : Soviet has lost NO ground or industri at all in this game (only for a few months as Italy had a quick adventure in southern russia -so they have had a high manpower regain for a long time. There seems to have been no Soviet adventurism (costing manpower) in China/Korea, either..And even IF the first assumption of yours is correct, the second one, that the Germans should suddenly do something meaningful is..a stretch

Regain, Schmegain. The number of troops destroyed in the various Balkan debacles (debacles from the Russian point of view) vastly outweighs any manpower increase the Russians could've achieved. Their MP at Barbarossa-time would have been zeroed out and just replacing the combat losses inflicted would use up the monthly regain. I am confident that the Russians don't have anything like parity with the Italians in available (i.e. ones that are not pinned by Germans facing them in eastern europe) troops.

If the front where the Germans are starts to be weakened, the German AI will see the reduced odds and might begin attacking. If the AI doesn't respond, the front will continue to be stripped until the German AI does attack. And if it isn't, the Italians will just rumble unopposed into Moscow.

The supply issues are pressing, given the scorched-earth bombing campaign. Unless Myth has been building lots of prefab ports he's not told us about, I don't think there's enough capacity in and around the Crimea to support a large attack. But driving through the back-end of nowhere (Anatolia) isn't going to be any better and adds little or nothing to Italian possessions. The war against Turkey was a defensive one anyway, and winning it was always more of a burden than a blessing once access to the Black Sea had been secured. So he'll just have to wait a few months while the infra on the Romania-Ukraine border rebuilds itself. The low supply demands of his INF-based army will be an advantage, and it might be worth opening that separate beachhead in order to start with some supplies beyond the infra-gulf when he elects to begin operations again and links up.

Eidt:

womble: Well, those seven armies hold about half a million men. They may be a bit stretched doing all that even given Soviet deficiencies, possible German support (inasmuch as they follow me) and my own operational skill.

Those Germans will be a right pain in the logistics when they attempt to fill the vacuum beyond the Dacian Wasteland. You have to beat them to it, though, or you risk them forcing you to make any Russian conquests on behalf of Berlin... Number of men isn't so much the issue, it's the number of divisions you are fielding (and hence the length of the coherent front you can present, even if it's chopped into shorter sections). 60-odd divisions is about as much as I've ever needed to kick a '41 Russia to death with minimal German help (not quite as negligible as you're getting, but close). At this stage, whether they're binary, triangular or square is largely irrelevant: no coherent Soviet formations will have to be fought division-on-division. You've reduced their division count significantly below their '41 OOB, I suspect and can surround them, cut them off, and wipe them out at leisure, especially since their troop deployments will be piecemeal diversions from the central european front.

Once the Infra has recovered sufficient to support 180INF beyond Dacia...

[Forster]

Took a few days break from the forum since you didn't seem to be doing much. Caught up now then you go to work.
It will be interesting to see just what you decide to do now. You really don't want to go past the destroyed infrastructure, but you could do the end run through Hungary and move into the Ukraine. Turkey should probably be a sideshow with mountain troops, to distract the Russians even more.

[shepherd352]

Myth does not seem to be interested in the destruction of Hungary, and I can see why. Hungary has been a critical element in his defence against two Soviet invasions. It has provided a firm border that has been useful in both defence and attack. Its destruction would bring very limited benefit but could place both Italy and Germany at risk, if calculations on Soviet strength are wrong.

It appears Myth is focussed on removing the Soviet threat but he recognizes the risks in doing this with a weak and indecisive German partner. Given the expanses of the Russian stepps and their distance from the ocean, it will be very interesting to see his next move.

[dublish]

Myth does not seem to be interested in the destruction of Hungary, and I can see why. Hungary has been a critical element in his defence against two Soviet invasions. It has provided a firm border that has been useful in both defence and attack. Its destruction would bring very limited benefit but could place both Italy and Germany at risk, if calculations on Soviet strength are wrong.

Good point, but the complete lack of Soviets on the Anatolian or Ukrainian fronts this long after the operation began certainly indicates something. I'd go ahead and take Hungary at this point if I didn't think it would distract me from invading Russia too much, but as I'm a general of both the armchair and backseat varieties, that's worth even less than the Italians were in the actual war.

[Myth]

FrodoB: A lot of my disinclination for writing on week days comes from the hour long walk I had to do each way. And besides, yesterday I did a hell of a lot of writing, albeit on something else, which should result in publication, whoo!

womble: As always, your analysis is cogent and interesting. It'll be interesting to see what you think of what will happen in tonight's update.

Forster: Hehe, perhaps. Hungary could be a nice little gobble, though their army has gotten somewhat considerable since they've been at peace this entire time. All their MP has no doubt been translated into brigades, as they haven't had any combat losses. Scary.

shepherd352: Very true, keeping Hungary neutral has been consistently good for me on the defensive. However, on the offensive, the prospect of taking I believe would ease potential logistical problems beyond Dacia by widening the corridor. Instead of being from the Black Sea to Hungary, it'd be to Poland. But yes, you're right that until there is certainty as to how weak the Soviets are, it is more prudent to leave the Hungarians alone.

dublish: Maybe the Soviets have just gotten lazy with strategic redeployment?

Update tonight!

[Baltasar]

May be it would be wise to consder landing on the Crimean peninsular and start the conquest of Russia from there. The Germans won't redeploy forces to a bridgehead thus far away, so this could give you a headstart. Plus, the Russians won't have forces near the area. Add to this the reconquest of Italian provinces in former Turkey and you get quite some room to reach vital Russian positions before the Wehrmacht finds out what their guns are good for.

[BlitzMartinDK]

Maybe instead of focusing on who gets the spoils IF Mussolini wins over the soviet union, focus should be on HOW to defeat them..Another option would be to go north for Leningrad (via kiev?) to pocket all those troops on the german front..? I am still not sure the Russian bear is down..It sure is bloodied, though..
Myth, just so an old HOI2 veteran can compare : Approximately how many years of Soviet MP regain have those offensives of yours cost the Russians, if all the destroyed brigades were at full strenght? -We are in december -44 now, and you started the game in -36..I know you are going to have to guess at the Soviet MP regain rate, since that can fluctuate due to ministers and tech etc...
Another thing I just re-noticed : The Finland Disaster was at the same time as your great succes in The Great Gamble..So was there any change in Soviet deployment in Finland corresponding/relating to your succes?

[Myth]

Baltasar: Hehe, well, we'll see what you think after this update.

BlitzMartinDK: I have no idea about Soviet manpower, really. I've not played them in HoI3 so I have no idea even what their base mp rate of gain is. But in the past two years they've taken nearly a million casualties all told, which is just about 1000 manpower I believe. And yes, disaster in Finland was happening at the same time as the height of the operations in the Balkans. We'll see a bit of what might be some Soviet redeployment in this update.

Update coming up!