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If I had not altered the original victory conditions for this modification, the war would have ended in July 1970 when the European Union (aka France) controlled 26 supply centers.
With the victory conditions I set, I do have to conquer Europe (or at least all the supply centers).
European Union (EU) forces liberated the Baltic States in the battle of First Livonia. The defeated Soviet army was destroyed as it attempted to retreat. EU forces also prepared to liberate Poland as they advanced into Prussia and Silesia.
EU forces defeated a Soviet attempt to reconquer Rumania in the battle of Second Rumania and captured Sevastopol. They also liberated the last province of Turkey controlled by the Soviets.
European Union forces defeated Soviet attempts to recapture the Baltic States and Sevastopol. The EU offensive against Warsaw freed Poland from Soviet control and destroyed the defending Soviet army.
I have no idea what the odds are. Given that the USSR and the USA are by far the most populous nations represented in this game, France putting together a multinational coalition to defeat both of them would have been extremely unlikely.
I really have no idea how long the game took because I was constantly interrupting it to save screen captures and write notes on what happened in every phase. I think I played it over the course of 2-3 days but it could have been longer.
Civil unrest in Moscow forced the Soviet army in and around the city to become "the most heavily armed police force on the continent" and diverted it from purely military affairs.
A hastily organized Russian government accepted the treaty ending the war. Its terms included associate membership in the European Union with the possibility of full membership after the Russian government demonstrated popular acceptance and stability.