3
The road rarely ends where you expect
1438-45
Following general advice I opt to wait a bit longer for the WE to cool down. The Mamluks don't waste time and issue a trade embargo against me a few months into 1438. Short of a warning but still useful, I have a CB now.
In March 1439 Iraq-i-Arab converts, a missionary is sent to Beirut. I adopt the Sheikh ul-Islam decision, not for the extra missionaries but to compensate a bit for the stability penalty from the Jizya decision (+20 stab cost).
During the end of 1439 and early 1440 the bulk of Ottoman forces in Arabia start marching back to Anatolia. The alliance of the Golden Horde seems to have worked well as a deterrent
In April 1441 -with WE around 3- I can't wait any longer and DoW the Mamluks. Both Najd and Golden Horde desert me. Qara Qoyunlu deserts the Mamluks, so it basically Syria against Mamluks*, Oman, Tunisia and Swahili. My hope is that the Swahili won't bother coming north.
This time I fight a much more defensive war from the start. The Mamluks have now all their forces consolidated in one big army so there is a lot of back and forth between Sinai and Cairo. They also have a decent 3-shock king general (more decent than my puny 1-shocker), who helps cause a lot more casualties.
Neither Swahili nor Tunisia show up, but Oman sends one regiment to besiege Al Hasa. I send one of my regiments to deal with it. This time all of my WE comes only from battle casualties. Al Karak and Hawran fall, and the ping pong between Sinai and Cairo continues... more cavalry on my side and a better general finally tip the balance in my favour.
To the point that when chasing the defeated Mamluk stack to Cairo I get a full overrun and the stack is totally wiped out. I know IN has changed the overrun rules, but I thought the winning army had to be at least double the size for this to happen
Anyway, the celebrations don't last long, a month after the annihilation of the Mamluk army Persia DoWs me
With the shock I didn't even take a screenshot.
From then on it's a race against time, I need to besiege enough Egyptian provinces to get a meaningful peace before the Persian stacks get to do much damage.
Ironically now Korashan, Khiva and Golden Horde offer me alliances (too late!). I accept them hoping to get my own back on Persia in the future.
Attrition and rebels stop the Persians but not for as long as I would like. Al Hasa falls to Persia. Mosul falls to Persia. Delta falls to Syrian forces. Iraq-i-Arab falls to Persia. I hope Badiyat Ash Sham becomes a good attrition corridor for the Persian armies before they reach Damascus. Cairo falls. Badiyat Ash Sham falls to Persia. Hawran falls to Persia. Alexandria falls.
In January 1445 -as the main Persian stack is starting to besiege Damascus- Diamientia falls.
I immediately sign peace with the Mamluks. In a 72% peace with 63% WS I obtain Alexandria and Diamientia (Alexandria alone is worth 56% WS).
Back to the Persian invaders, I realise I've left 6 regiments trapped in Alexandria as I rushed the peace deal
With only one transport it'll take some time to ferry them back to Damascus
Persia has just as much cavalry as I do, and double the infantry, so things are looking really ugly, even if I get all my army consolidated. On top of that my WE is over 18. So when two months later the Persians offer peace in exchange for Al Hasa and 51 ducats I'm more than willing to accept. Al Hasa was my only remaining Shia province, 1 base tax and non-core. Worth swapping for Alexandria and the definitive crippling of the Mamluks.
Persia is getting quite dangerous, I'm sure they'll DoW in 5 years' time if they have the chance. I hope I can get them in two fronts with my new allies Korashan and Khiva.
Elsewhere the Ottomans are busy in Europe fighting a strong Austria-Hungary alliance, and Fez has annexed Morocco
_________________
Syria in 1445
Provinces: 12
At peace.
Allied with Korashan, Khiva, Golden Horde.
Stability: +2
BB: 0.87
Monarch: Sultan al-Afdal III (5/5/8)
Army: 14 (7/7/0)
Navy: 7 (0/0/6/1)
WE: 18.32
Neighbours
Mamluks: Allied with Tunisia, Oman, Swahili. CB on Syria. Guaranteeing Yemen, Haasa, Nadj, Hedjaz, Candar, Iraq, Algiers, Tripoli. Warning Haasa, Ethiopia.
OE: Allied with Bosnia, Serbia, Golden Horde, Karaman. Guaranteeing Yemen, Oman, Karaman. Warning Armenia. At war with Austria*, Hungary.
Persia: No allies. CB on Khorasan, Qara Qoyunlu and Khiva. Guaranteeing Durrani, Khorasan and Qara Qoyunlu and Khiva. Warning Durrani, Korashan and TE.
Najd: Allied with Iraq, Tripoli. CB on Haasa, Oman. Guaranteeing Iraq. Guaranteed by Syria, Yemen, Oman, Algiers, Fez and the Mamluks.
Iraq: Allied with Najd. CB on the OE, Syria. Guaranteed by Yemen, Oman, Algiers, Fez and the Mamluks. Warned by Syria.
Haasa: Allied with Oman. CB on Najd and Persia. Guaranteed by Yemen, Oman, Algiers, Fez and the Mamluks. Guaranteeing Iraq, Hedjaz, Tunisia.