Italy has a natural Axis alignment and due to having a fascist government it has a natural drift towards the Axis camp. Its initial border with France will delay its drift into the Axis camp, but once Austria goes this will be cancelled out. Essentially if the Allies want to keep Italy out of the Axis camp they will have to move early and aggressively.
If I understand right, the size of the neighbor does not have any influence how much a country drifts, is this correct understanding? And what about things like BB value or my relation to this neighbor or fraction? Does this influence the drift?