First of all, a great
HOORAY!!! for that marvelous raid against Berlin!! Almost anticlimactic in a sort of way but it can't be overestimated how much good this must have done for your war effort. (And the propaganda) Looting a level ten reactor must have been a priceless achievement.
So this is how I see the current situation:
Bad:
- Germany is retaking some of its core lands
- Allies are damned low on MP
- US and UK are reeling with high dissent
- USSR is still relatively unbloodied
Good:
+ Germany's reactor is gone
+ Germany's supply of materials is gone
+ the Rhine makes for an excellent defensive line
+ US+UK still have operational reactors
+ If Germany liberates Essen and Dortmund, that gives Firestorm and Tommy excellent unnuked nuke targets.
Much better than Breslau or Königsberg.
So this is how I see the long term prospects... The Allies hold all aces wuith regards to nukes, but they have to hold the line at the Rhine. There aren't any good positions west of that unfortunately. Germany still has a titanic army, and will slowly recover some of its IC and manpower, as it liberates most of central and western Germany.
So short term odds are much like they were before the Berlin raid. But long term odds increased dramatically - nukes will eventually enable the Allies to cause an instant 50% or so dissent hit to Germany, and if by then they are still in a position to exploit, they can cross the Rhine again, strike into Germany's weakened armies and push them this time all the way to the Vistula.
So they need to
1a) hold the line at the Rhine
1b) hold the line in Italy with the forces they have (or give some ground north of Rome, it doesn't really matter as long as the front stays open)
2) recover from the massive dissent, knowing that no more German nukes will be coming for a long time
3) build rockets so they can lob nukes on four targets in Germany
4) Rebuild their air forces so they can defend against the Luftwaffe and prepare for extensive combat support
5) rebuild their armies and if possible assemble an uncommitted mobile army group along with uncommitted air support west of the Rhine, and keep it uncommitted until the nukes are ready
6) Unleash the fury of a thousand suns on Germany one last time
7) Have all fronts attack the reeling enemy
8) Send the mobile army group into battle at the weakest spot of German defence, help them break through the battle line, let them loose on the German rear, committ the air support to break everything in their path, race through the least destroyed German provinces, and ...
9a) ... if there are no major German reserves behind the front, encircle the German Wehrmacht in the west!! By either driving for Hamburg/Bremen, thus cutting off the northern part of the German front line, or by driving south to link up with the Italian front.
9b) ... if there are major stacks of uncommitted armies standing between you and the mother of all encirclements, link up with possible breakthroughs on other sections of the Rhine front (against nuked Essen or Dortmund perhaps) and dislodge a section of the German front. Keep the unbroken sections of the Rhine front static, and push more troops through the breakthroughs. Spread the maneuver group out in the German rear area, keep the German reserves separate and on the move, seize (and give up again) as much territory as possible, while the Rhine front fights its own battle of reverse envelopment against the Germans.
If possible, step 10 will be the surrender of the majority of German troops between Elbe and Rhine. If the German military can be weakened by a massive nuclear strike, then even without superior numbers you could fight a mobile battle in the less dense areas while numerically inferior numbers keep the German troops on the Rhine locked in. By preventing their withdrawal towards the Elbe, and at the same time wreaking havoc in their rear, you can set yourselves up for not just a defeat but a destruction of a large portion of those 450 divisions! After that you can turn southeast, and drive down the Danube to knock Hungary and Croatia out (overrunning their VPs long enough to press the annex button) and then wheel back west to destroy Axis positions in northern Italy from the rear, avoiding the Alpine high passes in favor of the less daunting Carinthia/Slovenian mountain ranges.
Sounds insane? Well it has to be ambitious in order to work
And of course it only works if you can hold the line at the Rhine.
The breakthrough -which is essential- can be assisted by dropping two of the nukes in the grand knockout strike on Essen or a nearby, developed, IC-rich province and then creating the breakthrough there.