The King's First Minister - a UK AAR

[Kurt_Steiner]

Who needs enemies when one has political mates?

[Nathan Madien]

...the Conservatives...challenged Halifax to refrain from pointless diplomatic efforts abroad.

They are kinda late on that.

Under a General Paulus,” he said as an afterthought, handing Halifax a copy of the Berlin Embassy’s report.

Paulus...this might not end well.

They were an odd bunch: Amery the newly resigned minister, Boothby the flamboyant backbench plotter, Macmillan the ambitious would-be grandee, Bracken the envoy of Churchill, Duff Cooper the elegant rebel and Eden, the only one of them still in the Halifax Government. They had consoled him, flattered him, and were glad to see him come.

More like a political version of "Gilligan's Island".

[Bafflegab]

I think this may already be too little too late for Eden etal. It lloks like the public has had enough of the Conservatives. I am not sure that there are any short of Winston himself who have distanced themselves sufficiently from the current Halifaxian regime to demonstrate true change to rectify the Conservatives image in the public eye. (Scraping by in safe seats and moving into third place in other electoral areas! Surely this shows either a Conservative loss to a majority or at the very least, opposition to a minority)

And of course Halifax looks at the daunting pile of papers on his desk, ignores them, gets grumpy, and calls anyone who might add to the pile ungentlemanly.... True leadership. Glad the King has confidence in him!

[TheExecuter]

Quite the contrary, I see this as Eden's folly. He and his mates will fail...Churchill will scuttle away and disavow all knowledge...and we will have to wait for the next general election to 'be rid of' our dear First Minister.

TheExecuter

[Sir Humphrey]

I still think that Eden is only kept there because Halifax can effectivly bully him, or at least thinks he can bully him. I would think that Oliver Stanley might chuck his lot in if the tide is turning, but only then, which means things could get really interesting. Duff Cooper, good on 'im.

Oddly I could see this palace coup working, but then like so many, falling apart as the victors squabble about who gets what and how, no doubt with Churchill being that spanner in the works.

[DonnieBaseball]

Could we see something like the post-war swing to the left in the next general election due dissatisfaction with the Tories? The "unmet social needs" bit makes me wonder...

Wonderful update--reminds me of a great book, Troublesome Young Men.

[MITSGS John]

If I recall correctly it's about four long years until the next General Election.

I'm wondering what Ironside has been up to in India. Things out East could be getting interesting and once the Viceroy reads his morning papers and has Gandhi arrested he has to find something to do to fill the day. And any RAF deficiencies out there don't matter so long as there are plenty of dreadnoughts on the Far East Station. Right? Right?

And although I know that the concept would be completely beyond Halifax, but is anyone in or near the Government even considering clandestine aid to Russia?

[Nathan Madien]

And although I know that the concept would be completely beyond Halifax, but is anyone in or near the Government even considering clandestine aid to Russia?

I am sure at least one person has thought about it...but like you pointed out, Halifax probably wouldn't allow it if he found out.

[Sir Humphrey]

They could fly supplies from India into Russian Central Asia, which could then go by rail. Or maybe British companies could sell the Russians things like steam locomotives, lorries and stuff, not strictly military, but could be used that way.

[El Pip]

And although I know that the concept would be completely beyond Halifax, but is anyone in or near the Government even considering clandestine aid to Russia?

"But that would be a bweach of Milan! We must honouwably obsewve it all times, even if no-one else does."

I think Sir H has the best plan though, supplying non-military equipment would be very borderline in terms of Milan but provide considerable aid to the Soviets. I'd still be very surprised if Halifax went for it though, far too active and decisive for him.

[MITSGS John]

They could fly supplies from India into Russian Central Asia, which could then go by rail. Or maybe British companies could sell the Russians things like steam locomotives, lorries and stuff, not strictly military, but could be used that way.

If they wanted to go Perfidious Albion about it, they could buy P-40s, Springfields, deuce and a halfs, bulldozers and what have you in the States and then ship them to Russia in American bottoms.

[Sir Humphrey]

Something akin to the Iran-Contra set-up perhaps?

[MITSGS John]

Something akin to the Iran-Contra set-up perhaps?

I have to rethink that one. I have to presume that the Neutrality Act legislation of OTL is still in force in the States, and Britain's exit from the war would make it less likely that Roosevelt would feel the need to try and work around it that led to things like Destroyers For Bases and Lend-Lease. I believe these laws prevented American shipping from carrying to or from belligerents. So John's Save-The-Commies Initiative would be stuck with a bunch of British-owned stuff that needs to get from America to Russia. Needs fine tuning.

[Le Jones]

Chapter 136, 11 Downing Street, 12 July 1941



Oliver Stanley, His Majesty’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, threw down the dusty folder and wearily removed his thick spectacles. His eyes felt strained, worn-out from endless hours spent in seeing the latest economic assessments. They were not hopeful, and Stanley looked out of his generously roomy study (especially when compared to the rather gloomy accommodation in 10 Downing Street) and once again prayed for an economic miracle. He felt very foolish.

His forecasts had been built upon a decent level of trade with Europe. The peace, he had hoped, would see the markets for British goods reopened and exports would (hopefully) flow from the British Isles into a Europe still obsessed with building munitions rather than commercial goods. The Empire would not rest on her laurels; Hankey and Eden had placed massive orders for new equipment whilst the expansion of the RAF, launched so enthusiastically in the 1930s, was continuing steadily (if not spectacularly). The resultant expansion of factories and infrastructure was to the assistance of civilian works: a shipyard that built destroyers could also build freighters. On some occasions it was even easier; Stanley had just approved Government assistance for the production of a passenger variant of the Short Stirling, whilst the truck manufacturers were already selling a number of surplus items to the civilian world, providing what Stanley hoped would be the “accidental windfall” of military expansion: powering up the military would provide, through its expansion of industry, a skilled workforce and capable plant. Riding a tide of Government subsidy and military demand, the future had seemed safe. The much heralded “super factories”, the amalgamations of small, inefficient, local companies into larger groupings was slowly taking place; the first merger, between Hawker and Handley-Page, was gathering pace and the emerging company, Hawker-Handley, would be a powerful concern. Stanley had also noted with approval the rationalisation of designs; superfluous blueprints would be cut and the variety of airframes designed to perform the same function would be trimmed. Stanley read an assessment from Menzies that the Germans had gone to war with hundreds of types of vehicles and engines. Britain would avoid that.

But Stanley had indentified two “prowling predators” to the British recovery. The first, and least predictable, was that the orders would slow down. As Stanley began to limit the subsidies and grants there was a matching hesitancy from the owners and businessmen to take on new employees or upgrade their equipment. The unions, ever truculent and encouraged by their Labour supporters, were “spoiling for a fight” (that was Eden’s description) and would, Stanley feared, protest at any tailing-off of production. They also feared the measures to improve efficiency, which made Stanley dwell upon his second predator: that simple, unavoidable fact that British working practices were just not good enough. Stanley had been horrified on his first visit to the Yorkshire coalfield; the miners, in conditions best described as nightmarish, had been working with picks and other hand tools, whilst the Americans and Germans were already using modern machine drills. He had recently attended the launch of HMS Unicorn, one of the new class of small carriers for Hankey’s increased Royal Navy. Walking around the shipyards, the story was the same everywhere; dangerous, old-fashioned techniques and equipment that the first Captain of HMS Warrior would have recognised. It was yet another dated world, and another battleground should Stanley and the Conservative Government attempt to do anything about it.

Stanley grimaced that those less inclined to support the unions, the ‘hawks’ in the Party, had made it difficult for him to outmanoeuvre the left. By insisting that large scale trade with either side in the war (for they were divided on how to handle Russia) was abhorrent, they prevented him from the Europeans buying the machine tools so necessary for industrial reform. They would have to be made in Britain, further straining Britain’s resources in the short term, though Stanley admitted that this policy aided the Empire in the longer term. He winced at the cost of it all.

Which led him to the trading nightmare. Thankfully, the brief war had made only a pinprick hole in the British merchant fleet. The limited damage had been rectified, and mercifully the Italian war in the Middle East had failed to interrupt trading through the Suez Canal; the tankers had kept sailing. But Stanley feared that massive military expansion, together with the hiatus of industrial reform, was pushing the crucial import v export “see-saw” heavily in favour of imports. Stanley dusted off his jacket and accepted the inevitable: Halifax would have to be briefed, his fears allayed. It would get better, he would be told, but only after the shock of change had been survived.

“Hooton,” Stanley called to an aide. “Could you contact the PM’s PPS? I need to go next door and meet him.”

“Of course, Chancellor.”

Ten minutes later, and Stanley found himself in his neighbour’s study. Stanley was saddened that he and his next-door neighbour had socialised so infrequently. Aside from Cabinet meetings and briefings Halifax had only invited his Chancellor into Number 10 on a handful of occasions. Quietly, the Prime Minister entered and waved his hand, gesturing for Stanley to sit.

“Oliver, it is agreeable to see you this evening,” Halifax said wearily. “I presume that you have wead this morning’s papers?”

“I have, Prime Minister,” Stanley said hesitantly. Where’s he leading on this, Stanley wondered. He sat back in his chair, cannily allowing Halifax to set the agenda.

“Yes,” Halifax continued. “Most iwwitating. There is gwowing evidence of subversion and plotting.”

“There is widespread unhappiness at the war in Europe,” Stanley said, before offering a judicious “apparently”.

Halifax too sat back, as if trying to gain a new interpretation of his visitor. “What the would be webels, whomever they may be, fail to gwasp, is that an attempt to split the Party would hand victory to Attlee on a plate.”

Stanley grasped the warning, realising that Halifax would play upon the threat of a Labour government, and dump the blame upon the rebels for its coming into power. Stanley had heard of the meeting of the high profile rebels, had noted the problems involved in toppling Halifax, and had deduced that his role could be crucial. They want to cast me as Warwick, the bloody ‘Kingmaker’, he thought to himself. But Stanley did not particularly want to hand power to a group that would, probably, oppose him on so many things. Eden, he hoped, would keep him as Chancellor; the two men were friends and shared many political opinions. But Stanley feared for the return of Amery, who would probably lobby for a senior cabinet role, and Winston Churchill, who could potentially become either Foreign Secretary (unseating the rabidly anti-Eden Butler) or War and Defence Coordination Secretary in the wake of Eden’s accession to the Premiership. But there were other favours: Bracken, Duff-Cooper, Boothby, all would demand reward. Then there were the likes of Cross, Macmillan, Hankey, where support and goodwill would be highly desirable. Stanley saw this and at that moment, in the Prime Ministerial study, decided that he would forge his own path. He would support Halifax, but at the cost of a hardening of British resolve and a weakening of the influence of the small coterie of Prime Ministerial advisors. They are wrong to call me Warwick, he thought. I am a Stanley, and Bosworth will happen as I wish it. He would not yet turn upon their weakened leader, though he knew that it amounted to little more than a “stay of execution”. But the stability of the Party, and the British people, would be preserved.

“That may be the case, Prime Minister, but we have to listen to all of the voices within our party. With Leo gone they’ve become outcasts! You need to listen to them, take a few of them into the fold, act upon their more lucid arguments.”

“Such as your economic pwoposals, the continuing of hard times to pwepare us for the future,” Halifax said tartly, causing Stanley to smile. He’s down, but he’s not out. I’ve won the point though, he realised.

“And the international situation,” he said, risking all for further concessions.

Halifax smiled sadly. “There, you may be cowwect. Whatever emerges fwom these turbulent days will be dominated by either Amewcia, Germany, or the Soviets,” Stanley smiled at Halifax’s attempt to minimise his speech impediment: there was no murdered “wussians” at which Stanley could chuckle.

“And the Empire, Prime Minister.”

“I pway so, Oliver, I pway so. Would you and your wife, ah...”

“Maureen, Prime Minister,” Stanley offered.

“A ha. Would you care to dine with Lady Halifax and I this evening?”

Stanley nodded, realising that he was victorious. Things were changing.

[Game Effect] – Stanley keeps Halifax in power, using his enhanced position to get Halifax’s support for his continued economic reforms.

The decline of the British economy had been raised before in this and other AARs. The slowing down of British growth and the increasing dominance of markets and outproduction by other nations is well known, but deserves to be examined. Whilst the struggle to defeat Germany emasculated the economy and allowed far more flexible economies to dominate, the seeds of British weakness were already sown. For an evocative description of these woes I commend to you Andrew Marr’s excellent "A History of Modern Britain”, and I agree with his assessment that the problems of the ‘70s were created in the ‘30s. Stanley has a battle on his hands, though he has already been partially successful in that the mergers and amalgamations necessary for the strengthening of British firms is going through. The unions will be truculent to anything that threatens employment though as imports from Europe start to fall (which will please Stanley and Halifax) goods will be increasingly home-made. Things will be tough in the short term, but in the long term Britain should be secure.

Stanley is also correct in his observations on German military problems in Barbarossa. The comparison between the Soviets, who massively rationalised weapons and equipment to just a few trusted types, and the Germans and their endless variety, is a simple and oft overlooked factor. Stanley will use this rationalisation principle where he can, and it suits me an HOI player/writer as it explains the presence of only one type of fighter, interceptor, tactical bomber etc. So the Chancellor’s planning is an AAR writer’s gift!

So Halifax clings on, in a masterclass in political positioning from Oliver Stanley. One of history’s “nearly men” he has not often graced the story as I have concentrated on military and political affairs. He was a well regarded, capable politician, though lacking any firm basis upon which to portray his reaction to the “hawks’” attempt to remove Halifax I’ve succumbed to my 15th century tales and have had him act as the third party. He was never a firm friend of either Amery or Bracken, and I suspect that he would show a bit of guile and avoid a Tory civil war (I don’t think that he would be confident that the coup would be painless). Halifax is almost (!) fatally weakened; the core appeasers aren’t sufficient to prevent his being removed and survival has come at a price. Halifax’s every action will be massively scrutinised, not just by the rebels but by a Chancellor of the Exchequer ever capable of fatally weakening the Prime Minister. British observers may find parallels with our current premier, but I actually see Halifax as a John Major type: carefully selected by his predecessor, comes to power with ease and then wins an election as much through luck and opposition weakness than ability, desperately trying to hold the Party together. Both were inherently charming men who somehow failed to convey their personalities: Major was ridiculed as the “grey man” and Halifax is seen as a stuffy, dour leader. Major failed to stem the tide of support for a renewed Labour Party with an ambitious manifesto, and perhaps Halifax will face a similar threat as Attlee’s team recover from their 1940 election defeat.

El Pip: I’ve tried to show here that the centre of the Party pragmatically support Halifax largely through economic factors.

Trekaddict: I couldn’t possibly comment – but it gets interesting...

Kurt_Steiner:

Nathan Madien: Oh, Paulus has an adventure...

Bafflegab: I think that a united Labour Party would do well – the Tories are just so divided.

TheExecuter: You’re quite probably right – taken with the comment above I think that the election (in 44/45!) seems the best chance of getting Lord H out...

Sir Humphrey: I’m not sure that Stanley would have joined the coup at this stage – he has much more to lose when compared to the other plotters. But we now have this bizarre situation where Stanley is bullying Halifax, who is bullying Eden, who is plotting to use Stanley to bring down Halifax. I feel a headache coming on...

DonnieBaseball: I think that we could – unless Stanley is brilliant (I think he would merely be good) the Labour Party will pick up votes.

MITSGS John: India update soon (well, a Far East one which is not quite the same thing!). It’s still a bit early for Ironside as he would have to endure a massive round of “joining calls” upon politicians and the King etc.

Nathan Madien: Nooooo!

Sir Humphrey: It would take a significant ‘swing’ in Cabinet opinion, which I cannot see happening (at present).

El Pip:

MITSGS John: Any British aid would be ‘cash and carry’ – it would go some way to convincing the waverers.

Sir Humphrey: Oh please God no...

MITSGS John: The Neutrality Acts are still in force – the US is not particularly pro anybody at the mo.

[DonnieBaseball]

Well played by Stanley I'd say--he has leverage with both sides and can benefit by support for his prefered policies ...

The what-if's of British industrial decline always fascinate--how to get management to be more bold, improve labour relations (can a Tory gov't EVER do this, as Labour will never go in with any trust?), how to modernize and consolidate? I remember Keynes saying something to the the effect of "if only the US Air Force would accidentely flatten all our factories with only the Directors inside we could start again from bottom and be so much better off"!

[El Pip]

You keep doing this, whenever I plan to do something in an update you cover it! Grrrrgh.

Anyway as has been mentioned Stanley is going to have trouble, pretty much everything comes back to industrial relations which really weren't good. 'More efficient' means more output for less inputs, as you can rarely cut the material inputs that means less time per item. Less time means less staff needed, so unless you can sell more stuff being more efficient means job cuts, which brings us back to industrial relations.

As has been said I don't know who can solve this, it will be a huge and difficult fight for the Tories and the Labour party will never go up against their pay masters. Baring a freak Liberal victory I can't see an obvious solution.

[trekaddict]

Good. Mergers but no nationalizations as of yet, or have I mistaken you? BAC is one of the things that motivated the growth of AAO from a small UK narrative experiment into the....thing it is now, and trust me, you haven't seen half of it yet.

[Arilou]

Shrewd move by Baldwin. With this Halifax should live to fight another day... I'm still awaiting the turn of fortune that will inevitably make Halifax the Saviour Of the World though

You keep doing this, whenever I plan to do something in an update you cover it! Grrrrgh.

Anyway as has been mentioned Stanley is going to have trouble, pretty much everything comes back to industrial relations which really weren't good. 'More efficient' means more output for less inputs, as you can rarely cut the material inputs that means less time per item. Less time means less staff needed, so unless you can sell more stuff being more efficient means job cuts, which brings us back to industrial relations.

As has been said I don't know who can solve this, it will be a huge and difficult fight for the Tories and the Labour party will never go up against their pay masters. Baring a freak Liberal victory I can't see an obvious solution.

Some kind of swedish model would probably be appreciated (it would break down eventually of course, but it might give you a decade or two of prosperity...) although how that would come about in Britain I have no idea (Heck, I can't for the life of me understand how it happened *here*)

[Kurt_Steiner]

The last "kingmaker" had a bad end... and the Stanley of Bosworth had also, later on, an eventful goodbye to the world...

[Nathan Madien]

Is Attlee still on shaky political ground?

Thanks for shining a light on the economy, Le Jones. Interesting, as always.