Chapter 134, War Office, 23 June 1941
Halifax nodded his thanks and invited the assembled to sit. With the still shaky British economy taking more and more of his time, as well as the inevitable recriminations from the failed diplomatic efforts, he was unimpressed with this rather forceful request by Menzies to hold his inaugural intelligence briefing. Judging by the way he bounced and beamed next to an array of charts, he clearly had something of worth.
“Gentlemen,” Halifax huffed. “I am extwemely tired this evening so I would be obliged if this was kept bwief.” This was unknown Halifax; he so rarely showed a cantankerous side that many of the assembled ministers and officers were taken aback.
Menzies, misreading Halifax’s grumpiness for hostility towards the Intelligence Staff, was visibly panicked. “My Lord, Sirs, may I welcome you to this first Chief of Intelligence Staff briefing.”
He walked over to a map of the Pacific, and pointed beyond the proud buttress of red that marked British-controlled Burma to the islands of the Dutch East Indies. “We have received intelligence that the Japanese are positively seeking to take control of the Dutch possessions in the Pacific area.”
Halifax pursed his lips. Dill, sat next to him and attired in dress uniform (he would later be going to a dinner at the Tower of London) raised an eyebrow. “Pray how, General Menzies?”
“Following the recent German-led invasion of the Soviet Union the Dutch were bullied by the Japanese government into signing a treaty of ‘common defence’ for the region. In essence the colony would remain Dutch but would largely be administered and exploited by the Japanese.”
Admiral Pound growled from his corner. “And why in God’s name did the Dutch agree to this?”
“Well, First Sea Lord, the Dutch weren’t really left with much of a choice.” Menzies, clearly enjoying himself, began to flick through his notes. “The Treaty of Milan binds us, if not explicitly then implicitly, from aiding them.”
“Why?” Ronald Cross, the Secretary of State for Air, was baffled.
“Because, Ronald, the Dutch colonies are still in form at war with Germany.” That was Walter Monckton, newly returned to Britain to stand in a by-election for a safe Tory seat. Despite his lack of official station he had joined Halifax’s coterie with ease. With his careful lawyer’s mind, he swiftly grasped the position. “Even though their Prime Minister returned to Holland after the invasion their Queen refused to countenance surrender.”
“But the homeland surrendered. There’s a Dutch Council, a Dutch leader...” Lord Hankey was as confused as Cross.
“All of whom are a polite front for the Germans,” Eden chided him. “And Walter is correct: Queen Wilhelmina fled to the Far East to carry on the war there.”
“What’s changed in the Far East then?” That was Dowding.
“Well, Sir, a pattern is slowly emerging. We believe that the Japanese secret police are active in the area.”
“Yes, yes,” said Dowding, “but what are they actually
doing, man?!”
Menzies smiled. His careful preparation prior to the briefing was paying off. “It would appear that they are protecting members of the community supportive of the Japanese government. Following Holland’s annexation the native population view their Dutch rulers as a weak, dying power.”
Pound looked baffled. “I fail to see the issue here, General.”
Dill interjected. “If the Japanese are meddling in one colony they can meddle in another, Sir Dudley,” he said turning to Menzies. “What is the assessment of the Intelligence Staff as to the Japanese next move.”
“Well, Sir, the key indicators lead to a pattern of increased Japanese pressure upon the Dutch administration.”
“Goodness,” muttered Eden. “Have you any idea as to the international response?” Eden ignored Butler, whose flabby head quivered at this potential overlooking of his Foreign Office. Eden was no longer in the mood for Parliamentary nicety; he looked with contempt and the untidy Foreign Secretary.
“Well Sir, reports from the United States indicate that President Roosevelt will take action. We’ve intercepted a message suggesting tightening the embargo. The Commonwealth may also be asked to support this.”
“And they will,” muttered Butler. “The Australians were adamant about their desire to see a stronger commitment from us on this regard.”
Eden nodded satisfied. Dill was not. “What about the Germans?”
“With Berlin looking to acquire the Japanese as an ally against the Soviet Union we predict that Germany and France will offer full support to the Japanese; indeed, when Holland was overrun Berlin made numerous suggestions to the Japanese to seize Java. France has already seen her Indochina colony be liquidated and so is hardly well-disposed to the Japanese. But she is fully committed to the war in Russia and will be pressured, we suspect, into supporting.”
Halifax looked concerned. “Has anything formal been agweed between the Japanese and Germans? And what concessions will be given to the Fwench for their support?”
Menzies paused. He looked uncomfortable but his embarrassment was minimised by an interruption from Butler. “My Lord, Berlin has already given the French free rein over former Belgian territory in the Congo.”
Halifax nodded. “So the French may weluctantly accept this development?”
“Yes,” Butler confirmed. “I do not see that they have any alternative.”
Dill turned to his Prime Minister. “In which instance, My Lord, I would recommend that we find a common approach with the Americans. I am still far from happy with our dispositions in the Pacific area.”
Halifax looked around him, assessing, as he always did, the levels of support for the proposal. Eden, he knew, was suspicious of America but wanted a tougher approach from both powers in meeting the Japanese aggressions. Dill, who had spent most of his efforts in rebuilding the Army in the wake of its mixed performance in 1940 counselled a diplomatic engagement with steadily increased defences. Cross was all for a robust Commonwealth response but Dowding was far more pessimistic: like Dill he favoured united diplomacy to mask the stark truth that the Imperial air defences in the Pacific theatre were woefully inadequate. The “Navy boys”, the aged First Sea Lord and his elfin First Lord, were both confident. Pound had total confidence that the expanded Singapore and Hong Kong battleship squadrons could deal with the Japanese Fleet, whereas Hankey had placed his trust in the strength of the united Commonwealth forces. Halifax rolled his eyes as Eden began to lament the Empire’s reluctance to deal with Japan.
“I mean, it’s not as if we have lacked for provocation. Their invasion of China, their occupation of Indochina, their endless bullying of foreign nationals anywhere they control.” He flapped a hand helplessly. “We must act,” he said, looking at Halifax directly.
“Anthony, as ever you are eager to act in defence of the Cwown. But is the Cwown yet in need of defence? Eden threw his hands up in mock despair. Dill looked pensive. Halifax sensed this and peered at them over his spectacles, not unlike a judge delivering an unpalatable verdict. “Yet I appweciate that we must not be blind to their potential for mischief. We must liaise with the Commonwealth and show a determination to defend our Empire. Lord Hankey?”
“Prime Minister?”
“Please instwuct the Woyal Navy to make a determined show of Bwitish power in the area.” Halifax looked at Hankey, who was jotting this down. “And be sure to include the Austwalian and New Zealand ships. Let the Japanese see that we are united in our wesolve.”
“And the Americans?” That was Ronald Cross, eager to assert himself after his earlier confusion. Eden, who could never make up his mind on the Americans, looked bemused.
“Let us determine first how the Commonwealth weacts to these wecent developments,” Halifax said carefully. “Woosevelt is a clever man, and I am wary of his intentions towards our Pacific possessions.” He looked around the assembled ministers and officers. “I would wather pwesent a united Commonwealth policy to any potential partners than a disjointed mess.” Dill, who dreaded the British Army’s prospects in a protracted Asian war, shook his head slowly. Halifax saw this. “I note your concerns, but I do not trust the Amewican administration.”
[Game Effect] – And so the Pacific situation begins its slow countdown to war. I’ve tried, through a competent first outing for Menzies (or, more correctly, his staff: Menzies, no master of intelligence himself, was a shrewd political operator, and is a front, deflecting the pressures of others away from his team) to wrap-up some of the worries of the Dutch. The situation of course was, in reality, far more complicated than the “in 1941 Japan seized Indochina and then moved on” that I was taught at Prep school and I’ve kept the detail to what the British could (reasonably) be expected to know.
Of course, a Japanese move on the Dutch colonies presents the classic problem for the British: Whitehall abandoned the Dutch in its race to get a peace deal with Berlin and though Halifax is against any Japanese expansion into Java and Sumatra an alliance with the Dutch survivors is out of the question: to do so would result in Britain being diplomatically (and morally) committed to the liberation of the Dutch homeland. I think that Halifax would use the threat of Japanese expansion to try diplomatic efforts (here we go again), tying together the Commonwealth and seeing what diplomatic agreements can be forged with the Americans.
Halifax doesn’t trust FDR (well who did?!) – and I have tried to avoid the stereotypical “those horrid colonials” opinion for a more realistic view. Halifax knows of FDR’s fundamental dislike of colonialism and any British support for FDR would be done after careful examination of the small print. Unlike Churchill’s more bullish diplomacy, this is gentle, wary pragmatic work where the goal (calm the Japs down) is a limited shared opinion. Don’t expect any Prime Ministerial visits to DC just yet. Strategically of course if a war broke out I remain convinced (unlike a lot of the Halifax “what ifs”) that the USA and UK would work together. But at this stage both sides seem to be sorting their individual responses first, before considering a joint approach to the problem.
Trekaddict: That’s probably as fair an assessment as can be made!
Kurt_Steiner: I think that the change is a coming...
DonnieBaseball: Eden has yet to show his hand – but more Parliamentary messing about looms...
MITSGS John: The US of A has had little need to flex its muscle – there hasn’t even been a need to help Britain in this story. I think that FDR might have slipped some token help to Stalin, but would probably have hedged his bets and planned to deal with whomever emerged victorious.
Nathan Madien: The Churchill gambit is a fascinating one – his going to Washington is unlikely at present, though I love the idea (and irony) of his being sent there by Halifax.
Arilou: The situation is, as you say, in the Emperor’s hands. Obviously any plan for the IJN to rule supreme has to factor in the ability of the RN to deploy in some strength to the Pacific – theoretically in concert with the USN. How the Japs act is now key, given that Hitler and Stalin are busily slaughtering one another and are totally disinterested in Halifax and the Empire.
El Pip: I think that the abandoning of Eden was more accident than design. But it shows how foolhardy the missions were – totally independent of one another and lacking real communication.
VILenin: I may have been harsh on Eden, but I think that after being conned into going to Moscow Eden would have slugged it out. But it was an unsophisticated attempt and got the result that it deserved.
Derek Pullem: I think you’re right – and it’s not beyond all possibility now that Halifax is so weakened by the failure of his diplomatic efforts.
Sir Humphrey: The idea of a fight between them is hilarious.
El Pip: It would almost certainly be seen as a breach of Milan (which it is) by the Axis, and Halifax wouldn’t do it unless pushed.
Bafflegab: Darn it! Maybe I should have done that!
Enewald: No sign of it yet.
Nathan Madien: I’m just not sure when (or if) the great US infatuation with Stalin will begin in this AAR – I suspect that slowly, as Russian bravery and dogged resistance is reported around the world, public opinion would shift, but at the minute the speed of such a shift would be what one of my favourite AARs calls “Continental drift”.
BritishImperial/Nathan Madien: I just have this cool idea of a western bar room brawl, with Butler as the fat incompetent sheriff dragging them out to settle it with guns. “Now Edward, this town’s not big enough for the both of us” sort of stuff.
Sir Humphrey/El Pip: He did indeed have a couple of false hands made,
Kurt_Steiner/Trekaddict/Bafflegab/Derek Pullem/Bafflegab/Nathan Madien:
MITSGS John:
Sir Humphrey/Morsky: From what I read Morsky is essentially correct, though in this AAR I think that Halifax would have relied on Sir John Simon/Lord Templewood.
