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Not to mention inaccurate. FDR employed a variety of tactics to get the US into WWII against Germany. That's why the US employed lend lease, engaged in combat with German subs, and more or less paid for a good chunk of the Allied war effort even before entering the war. The attack on Pearl Harbor and the War in the Pacific was not FDR's primary concern, nor was he interested in war with Japan. He had his eye fixed on Germany. The idea that he wanted to stay neutral in Europe is just plain wrong. FDR pushed the Germany first strategy and considered the Pacific a secondary theatre for much of the war. Instead, it was Britain who relied on American in the Pacific. The British pre-war strategies basically relied on American naval success to hold on to much of their territory in the region. That's why almost all their territories feel swiftly when America was unable to provide naval superiority early in the war.
And I don't think Britain has any right to talk to the US about being reluctant to go to war. The US had no obligations to the European states. Britain and France did and they dragged their heels on getting into the war. Their refusal to go to war over Czechoslovakia cost the lives of tens of millions (Germany couldn't have possibly beaten the British and French in 1938) by giving Germany an extra year and the Czech military-industrial complex.
And the idea the WWI was a struggle against authoritarianism is ridiculous. The Allies include the Tsar and the two largest Empires in the world (who governed hundreds of millions by use of military force). The German Empire and Austria-Hungary (well, the Hungarian part) both contained strong democratic elements, though not to the extent that France, Britain, or the US did. It was a war of Imperialist alliances. Of course the US had to be dragged into the war. Why should it have cared?
Besides, Halifax isn't a coward. He's a naive, incompetent, inflexible, pretentious British Lord who can't see that the British Empire is not the power it once was and that he is only weakening its position in the future.
And I don't think Britain has any right to talk to the US about being reluctant to go to war. The US had no obligations to the European states. Britain and France did and they dragged their heels on getting into the war. Their refusal to go to war over Czechoslovakia cost the lives of tens of millions (Germany couldn't have possibly beaten the British and French in 1938) by giving Germany an extra year and the Czech military-industrial complex.
And the idea the WWI was a struggle against authoritarianism is ridiculous. The Allies include the Tsar and the two largest Empires in the world (who governed hundreds of millions by use of military force). The German Empire and Austria-Hungary (well, the Hungarian part) both contained strong democratic elements, though not to the extent that France, Britain, or the US did. It was a war of Imperialist alliances. Of course the US had to be dragged into the war. Why should it have cared?
Besides, Halifax isn't a coward. He's a naive, incompetent, inflexible, pretentious British Lord who can't see that the British Empire is not the power it once was and that he is only weakening its position in the future.
I know FDR was trying to get the US into the war, something that in retrospect only added to his stature. However, as you well know, in the USA l'etat c'est moi is not the system of Government and the collective 'decision' of the nation as expressed by its Government was not to get involved on a matter of principle.
Once the war had started, the Europe First strategy was: a) quite unpopular with much of the military who (rightly perhaps) saw the Pacific as the key American theatre; and b) a wartime strategy based on Germany's perceived greater threat.
Furthermore, to say that Britain only went to war because of its obligations is to beg the question of why the USA did not feel obliged to give similar guarantees to countries being threatened by Nazi Germany. Who was acting on principle and who wasn't?
The same goes for the Czech example. If the Brits were pusillanimous in their reluctance to support the Czechs in the face of aggression, so were the Americans. At least the Europeans made some,. albeit feeble, attempt to minimise the damage Hitler was doing.
Finally, I don't see that Halifax is weakening Britain's position in the future. IRL the British lost everything in the war and were reduced to bankruptcy (in part because the Americans screwed them out of all their American assets as payment for providing materiel - the UK used to be the biggest landowner in the USA). FDR and Cordell Hull made no bones about the fact they were keen to dismantle the Empire (the latter seemed to have loathed the British). If, on the other hand, Britain had stayed out of the war, it would have emerged with its Empire intact and probably grown fat on selling to the combatants (much as the US did). So, in conclusion, if the Brits had really looked after their own interests they would have done exactly what Halifax is doing. Not a few of the British governing class realised this and were dismayed at the though that all a successful war would achieve would be to swap domination by a German empire for domination by an American one.
I'll accept your point on WWI, however, I would say that it is not totally unreasonable to characterise WWI as a battle of democracies vs authoritarian regimes in outcome if not intent.
Once the war had started, the Europe First strategy was: a) quite unpopular with much of the military who (rightly perhaps) saw the Pacific as the key American theatre; and b) a wartime strategy based on Germany's perceived greater threat.
Furthermore, to say that Britain only went to war because of its obligations is to beg the question of why the USA did not feel obliged to give similar guarantees to countries being threatened by Nazi Germany. Who was acting on principle and who wasn't?
The same goes for the Czech example. If the Brits were pusillanimous in their reluctance to support the Czechs in the face of aggression, so were the Americans. At least the Europeans made some,. albeit feeble, attempt to minimise the damage Hitler was doing.
Finally, I don't see that Halifax is weakening Britain's position in the future. IRL the British lost everything in the war and were reduced to bankruptcy (in part because the Americans screwed them out of all their American assets as payment for providing materiel - the UK used to be the biggest landowner in the USA). FDR and Cordell Hull made no bones about the fact they were keen to dismantle the Empire (the latter seemed to have loathed the British). If, on the other hand, Britain had stayed out of the war, it would have emerged with its Empire intact and probably grown fat on selling to the combatants (much as the US did). So, in conclusion, if the Brits had really looked after their own interests they would have done exactly what Halifax is doing. Not a few of the British governing class realised this and were dismayed at the though that all a successful war would achieve would be to swap domination by a German empire for domination by an American one.
I'll accept your point on WWI, however, I would say that it is not totally unreasonable to characterise WWI as a battle of democracies vs authoritarian regimes in outcome if not intent.
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Good attention to detail, Le Jones. At the time, the United States Airforce was under the control of the Army. It was after WW2 that the Airforce became independent.
What happens to MacArthur if the Japanese conquer the Philippines?
Historically, he escaped to Australia under FDR's order. Where would MacArthur escape to now?
If MacArthur doesn't escape, it is very plausible for him to be struck down fighting for the defense of the Philippines.
Of course, if the Japanese kill MacArthur (or MacArthur kills himself to avoid being captured), that will have major impact on the course of the war. Like Yamamoto, MacArthur played a key role in the Pacific campaign and the postwar American occupation of Japan. His premature death would leave an empty hole in American strategy.
Then again, given that MacArthur historically killed his career by arguing with President Harry S. Truman over the Korean War in 1951, being killed in the Philippines in 1942 might be a bit more glorious for him (kinda like how Benedict Arnold would have been remembered as a great hero had he been killed at the height of the Battle of Saratoga in 1777 instead of destroying himself in 1780 by trying to hand West Point over to the British and then burning New London, Connecticut to the ground a year later).
I wonder if an offer of a cabinet position (or anything else) from Halifax at this point could buy off Churchill?
Good for Eden--it's now or never. I just hope Halifax has run out of rabbits to pull from the hat ...
Good for Eden--it's now or never. I just hope Halifax has run out of rabbits to pull from the hat ...
The only cabinet position Churchill would accept would be the one currently held by Halifax.
I think the point is that right now Churchill is pretty much out of the loop: He's a firebrand, but he can't get enough support to actually be PM. At most he can get someone closer aligned to himself (Eden perhaps) into that position.
Huzzah! All caught up.
Going forward I hope Woolly survives, though I fear his fate is tied to whether or not Britain enters the war in the next few months (weeks?). Which neatly brings me to the next point, I think I'm coming down with something as I'm rooting for Halifax.
OK not Halifax per se, but staying out of the Pacific War seems an excellent idea, in the short term anyway. Make a packet flogging stuff to the Americans while letting US forces learn all the hard and bloody lessons about Pacific warfare. Then, when the RN has enough new hulls in the water (but before the US shipyards really kick into gear) enter the war, kick the arse out of the IJN and claim to have won the entire war single handedly.
It is a plan with absolutely no drawbacks.
Going forward I hope Woolly survives, though I fear his fate is tied to whether or not Britain enters the war in the next few months (weeks?). Which neatly brings me to the next point, I think I'm coming down with something as I'm rooting for Halifax.
OK not Halifax per se, but staying out of the Pacific War seems an excellent idea, in the short term anyway. Make a packet flogging stuff to the Americans while letting US forces learn all the hard and bloody lessons about Pacific warfare. Then, when the RN has enough new hulls in the water (but before the US shipyards really kick into gear) enter the war, kick the arse out of the IJN and claim to have won the entire war single handedly.
It is a plan with absolutely no drawbacks.
Huzzah! All caught up.
Going forward I hope Woolly survives, though I fear his fate is tied to whether or not Britain enters the war in the next few months (weeks?). Which neatly brings me to the next point, I think I'm coming down with something as I'm rooting for Halifax.
OK not Halifax per se, but staying out of the Pacific War seems an excellent idea, in the short term anyway. Make a packet flogging stuff to the Americans while letting US forces learn all the hard and bloody lessons about Pacific warfare. Then, when the RN has enough new hulls in the water (but before the US shipyards really kick into gear) enter the war, kick the arse out of the IJN and claim to have won the entire war single handedly.
It is a plan with absolutely no drawbacks.
And which sounds strangely familiar in some way. Even so, I agree with you good Sir.
But is Halifax standing pat because he knows what he's doing or because he doesn't know what to do? If the latter, it doesn't bode well for the follow-on decisions to be made. Can the Empire win the peace from outside of the war? Woodrow Wilson didn't think the United States could in 1917.
And can Halifax govern without Eden and the hawks if they decide to walk on him?
Thanks for reminding me of the point I missed; Then make sure all films about the Pacific War utterly erase all mentions of the Americans, save in insulting and dismissive terms, further reinforcing the position that Britain won it alone despite turning up late.
I know I've seen this plan before, I'm just not sure where.
Chapter 163, London, 20 January 1942
It had been, as he, Winston Churchill, would later write, “a climacteric of Britain’s future”. He knew, or at least partly suspected, that Halifax was slyly “dirtying an already cloudy picture” but realised, and had told Eden and Duff Cooper as much over the dinner table, that they had to attempt to meet with him. They had been reluctant; Eden in particular had warned him that Halifax was determined upon avoiding participation in the war. Churchill had raged at the revelation that Eden, a key minister in the Cabinet, had not been informed of the invitation that he had received from the Prime Minister. And now, grumpily adjusting his bow tie, he snatched at his stick and began the short walk to Downing Street.
He was welcomed by Michael Beaumont, Halifax’s Parliamentary Private Secretary, with a hesitant smile. Unlike its usual, busy atmosphere, there was an eerie calm. Churchill’s coat and stick were taken and he was led into the Cabinet Room. There he found Halifax sat in his customary place with a tray of refreshments. The Prime Minister rose from his chair and nodded at his guest.
“Ah, Winston,” Halifax began, “it is agweeable to see you again.”
Churchill growled in reply. “Your note was most insistent m’Lord”. Without invitation he flounced down into the seat next to Halifax. “Well man, what do you want?”
Halifax was ruffled by Churchill’s belligerent tone (as Churchill had intended) and was initially silent. With forced calm he poured himself a cup of tea. He offered to pour a cup for Churchill, who shook his head. Halifax remembered: Winston hated tea. This doggy’s water is the stuff that gives the Dutch courage, Halifax thought wryly.
“Do you remember, Winston, when we sat awound this table in May nineteen-forty?”
Churchill grunted his assent. Halifax, realising with a sigh that he would get nothing further, stirred his tea.
“It was, I wather think,” Halifax continued, “the last occasion in which you, me and Neville worked together. But time marches on, I suppose,” he said wistfully. He turned awkwardly to look at Churchill. “May I take you to lunch? At the Dorchester?”
Churchill stared suspiciously at Halifax, alarmed by the reference to the long dead Neville Chamberlain. In the 1939 War Cabinet he had been out-voted on so many decisions that had left him feeling frustrated, enraged. “If you wish, Edward, if you wish.”
A few minutes later and the two men, one tall, gaunt and anxious looking and the other shorter, stouter and angrier, strolled together towards their destination, Halifax’s police officer (in plain clothes) following at a discreet distance. Churchill was baffled by Halifax’s behaviour: there was no stuffy Downing Street meeting, surrounded by the Party grandees and the Whips, but instead a cosmopolitan, generous luncheon in one of London’s finest addresses. The wily bugger is up to something, Churchill thought sourly. He was snapped out of this reflection by the shouts of encouragement to both he and Halifax, wishing both of them well. There were a few shouts for Churchill to return to Government.
“Ah, the people, the people,” he growled. Halifax, looking embarrassed, was silent.
They entered the Dorchester. Halifax acknowledged a greeting from Walter Monckton, who was dining with Geoffrey Dawson, but refused an offer for he and Churchill to join them. Today I take these fences alone, Halifax thought to himself.
They took seats, in a quiet, almost secluded corner that Churchill would later write as “perfect for a young baronet seducing a blushing debutante”. Halifax, to Churchill’s private enjoyment, tried to assert himself by ordering the wine. Halifax then looked through the menu.
“I understand,” Halifax said slowly, eyes still focussed on the menu, “that you pwopose to wise up and make a speech in the Commons.” He looked up at Churchill. “Is this cowwect?”
“It is,” Churchill said gruffly. “I intend to speak against you in the debate on the Pacific situation, yes.”
Halifax nodded, as if confirming something to himself. Churchill did not know it from his calm demeanour and disinterested tone but the Prime Minister felt paralysed by fear. He was grateful when a waiter arrived and started to pour the wine; he re-gathered his resolve and composed his thoughts.
“May I ask why?”
Churchill, who had been slouching, drew himself up to his full height. He pointed a finger at Halifax. “To decide once and for all the disputes bedevilling our party!”
“Such a move, as you must know, could twigger a vote of no confidence and pwecipitate a Genewal Election,” Halifax again moved to disguise his terror, sipping nonchalantly on his wine.
“Perhaps, but it must be done, and might end your reign as our leader.”
This was the climax of the conversation, the moment where Halifax’s continued survival as Prime Minister was, to him, seriously in doubt. Halifax, who had made most of his points, had one final card to play, and realised that now was the time to play it.
“Wab and those in the Party loyal to me are still stwong in numbers. You and your fwiends would stwuggle to win a leadership contest. Instead, you would condemn the Conservative Party to civil war, all for the Amewicans.”
“For the Empire, Edward! For right! For freedom from the evils of Imperialist Japan!” As Churchill barked his comments he noticed something new in Halifax’s eyes: fury. The Prime Minister was furious, his prickly temper had snapped.
“In a war where we are not wanted,” Halifax said. “A war that, were we to become involved, would bankwupt this countwy.” He sipped again on his wine; Churchill, watching him like a wary predator, realised that he was stalling. “Winston, you were in Cabinet in the Gweat War, you know the size of our war debts!”
“So you would see us turn into an apologist, collaborator state, in denial of our moral obligations, all because you’re quibbling about the cost?” Halifax moved to speak but Churchill cut across him. “What about the cost to our standing, our prestige! What price the honour of the British Empire?”
“What pwice the future of the Bwitish Empire!” Halifax yelped the words as his self-control lapsed. He coughed and looked for a way to evade Churchill, even if only for a few minutes. “Perhaps we should order our lunch,” he gestured for a waiter to come as he spoke. Tacitly calling a truce, the two men ordered their lunch.
Halifax was the last to order, as Churchill had guessed that the fussy peer would be. Placing down his menu with great care, Halifax slowly drank from a glass of water and finally, after a painful silence, looked up at Churchill.
“It is appawent to me,” he said carefully, “that we must be careful of not destwoying our fwagile economy with a wuinous war.”
“But it wouldn’t be a ruinous war,” Churchill said, deliberate calm laid over evident anger. “This could stimulate our industries, not strangle them!” He looked squarely at Halifax, leaning over the table towards Halifax. “Is that the sum of your fears? To dispense with our history, our glory, solely based on petty penny-pinching?”
Halifax’s mind was racing. He was struggling to understand where Churchill was heading with this. “No, I have many concerns. But the survival of our Commonwealth, and its twade, is a pwessing one.”
Churchill, who had up until now been very aggressive in tone and bearing, now suddenly beamed like a happy child. “I’m glad we agree on one thing, Edward!”
Halifax raised an eyebrow. “I don’t follow, I’m afwaid.”
“If we can agree some sort of economic agreement, we can join the Americans!” He pounded the table with his fist. The trap was sprung.
Halifax too realised that he was cornered. “That’s not pwecisely my point, Winston...”
“Let us speak to the Americans! If we can make an agreement, then we can march together, arm in arm!” He drank heavily from his glass of wine.
“Er, well, Winston,” Halifax’s mind was a whirl of confusion. “Erm, ah,” he struggled to buy time whilst he thought. “Who, er, yes whom, would you send?” An idea was forming, one that, Halifax thought maliciously to himself, was inspired.
“We have many talents in the Party, Edward!”
“Yes,” he smiled silkily. “But do you promise that, as long as I select a wobust member of the Party, ideally fwom you and your supporters, you would be content?” Churchill glowered. Halifax continued. “In which, I would be delighted to send you.”
“Me?”
“You are half-Amewican, you are well-known in the United States, and you are famous for your anti-appeasement whetowic! You are, also, one of the few Bwitish politicians known on the international stage. You are so obviously the logical choice.”
Churchill had trapped Halifax, who had in turn trapped him. Chuckling that they were, despite their obvious differences, so alike in the passion with which they fought for their beliefs, Churchill nodded. He would fight alright, and drag Edward bloody Halifax along with him.
“Very well, but I will expect to be given a free rein, Edward!”
“No, Winston, you will, with Lord Woolton, negotiate as best you can. Any agweement must have Cabinet appwoval, His Majesty would expect no less.”
And you know, deep down, that I will force the Cabinet to decline any arrangement that you make, Halifax thought slyly. The two men shook hands, parting in the manner of gentlemen. Halifax returned to Downing Street alone, happy in the thought that Churchill was soon to be far away causing trouble in Washington. He’s just as likely to enrage the Americans as to charm them, he thought smugly. It was an empty gesture, but one that had saved him from a Churchill speech to Parliament. He turned the corner into Downing Street, acknowledged the cheers of some passing tourists and nodded in reply to the greeting of the solitary policeman guarding the entrance to his official residence. He chuckled at the knowledge that Hitler, whether he was in Berlin or his mountain residence, was reputed to have a small army of guards and secret policemen protecting him whilst he, Lord Halifax, had one solitary constable keeping a very English watch over his official residence. As Cole wordlessly took his coat and hat Halifax was greeted by Major General Menzies. For once the intelligence chief was not looking his usual correct, well-presented self.
“Forgive the intrusion, Prime Minister, but I have just heard from HMS Suffolk out in the Far East. She reports that Phillipine radio is broadcasting that the Japanese have landed on Mindoro island. I’ve prepared a chart for Your Lordship here.” He gestured to a map on the table.
“What does this signify?”
“Well, My Lord, it is obviously the first step of their assault upon the Phillipines. An American General called Macarthur is in command of the combined US and Phillipine forces. But if the Japanese land in strength then I suspect that the Americans could struggle.”
“Does this impact upon us?”
“It does, Prime Minister. Control of the Phillipines would give the Japanese perfect bases from which to launch attacks on British possessions in the area. Brunei and Malaysia are particularly vulnerable.”
“Vewy well, I shall think about my weaction. Anything else, Sir Stewart?”
“One thing, My Lord. Your Lordship requested an update on the war in the Russia?”
Halifax frowned. “Did I?”
“You did, Sir. Two items of interest. Firstly, the Russians are defending Moscow. The citizens of the city appear to have been conscripted into defending their homes, and the Germans are meeting very tough opposition. They appear to be moving East, to be encircling the city. This is the front as of yesterday. I’ve marked Moscow with an arrow, My Lord.”
“In addition, the Italians are beginning to make their presence felt. Your Lordship will see from the summary of this month’s shipping losses that Italian aircraft flying from German-controlled airbases have claimed a number of significant hits.”
[Game Effect] – Churchill and Halifax, and the latest in the Russian and Pacific theatres.
Ok, ‘fessing time, a bit of a liberty taken here. I think that Halifax would try and send Churchill off somewhere – anywhere rather than London! Would he send him to meet the Americans? Possibly, though it’s ‘borderline’ whether such a risky move would appeal to the deeply cautious Lord H. Perhaps this is a punt too far from me, perhaps.
But yet, and here’s the rub, it is a clever move – it shuts the hawks up by sending their most prominent public figure (perhaps an honour shared with Eden) to a capital that our gallant PM is wary of. If Churchill comes home empty handed then Halifax has won this battle (if not the war!) with the hawks – unless they disown Winston then they have to back down. If he comes away with a generous offer, made in exchange for British help, then Halifax has the comfort that Butler, Maxwell-Fyfe, Cross, and possibly Hankey will be reluctant: only Eden, and perhaps an increasingly hawkish Oliver Stanley, would fight to honour the deal. The key issue here, and perhaps the dogdiest presumption in this update, is whether Churchill would accept. In my defence he was a far more complicated character than the “never surrender” character made out in popular mythology – he was a clever politician and might see for himself a chance to make a difference.
Trekaddict: But they’re not, that’s the point. Halifax is desperately trying to keep them out of hostilities.
Kurt_Steiner:
Trekaddict: Not yet, too soon dear boy.
Enewald: The Foreign Office is, to quote a modern phrase, “in a tizzy” over the whole thing.
Dashstar1972: Welcome to the madhouse! I’ve tried to keep this even-handed, but occasionally my frustration at what is after all a game (and a very placid one with Halifax in charge!) spills over. I agree that Halifax is not being cowardly, I see it more as a strategic choice (let the Americans and Japs tire each other out before looking at intervention). Jumping in for purely opportunistic motives is equally daft – it reeks of Mussolini’s “seat at the peace conference” argument. But I think that to stay out is potentially short-sighted.
Kurt_Steiner:
Prijezda_Asen: The Americans, to my view, were in a very tangled position. They obviously saw the wisdom of assisting the “goodies”, and bent the rules as neutrality as much as they could. But the US obviously had its national interest at heart – and sought to emerge from the war as strong as it could. As an Englishman I can curse FDR for his unsympathetic postwar plans, but I completely understand why he did it.
Dashstar1972: I think that with this war being very limited (Pacific, one enemy), the Empire could just about manage it without “selling the family silver”. But Halifax’s view that the fragile economic recovery has to come first is probably the most sensible opinion he has ever formed.
Nathan_Madien: I’m agonising over Macarthur – writing an update about him is a minefield. Edward VIII was easier for heaven’s sakes!
DonnieBaseball: Halifax would certainly not offer Churchill a cabinet position – he’s having enough trouble with Eden! I think that the goodwill trip to Washington is the best that he could hope for.
Sir Humphrey: And that position is evidently not vacant!
Arilou: And that may be part of his reason for accepting the mission to Washington. Eden is the best hope of the hawks, and there seems to be a deliberate approach on the part of the hawks to keep him as safe as possible.
El Pip: Good Lord! El Pip supports the PM! You’re right, but with the US would be wise to a slippery Britain joining in long after she was really needed (ie now – the USN is a shambles at the minute and Burma is the most obvious front for offensive action).
Trekaddict: That’s the ticket! I’ll make a Halifax voter of you yet!
MITSGS John: I seriously doubt whether the Empire could win the peace from outside. And that is a key worry of Eden, Winston, Duff-Cooper and all the other nutters who support them.
Nathan Madien:
El Pip:
It had been, as he, Winston Churchill, would later write, “a climacteric of Britain’s future”. He knew, or at least partly suspected, that Halifax was slyly “dirtying an already cloudy picture” but realised, and had told Eden and Duff Cooper as much over the dinner table, that they had to attempt to meet with him. They had been reluctant; Eden in particular had warned him that Halifax was determined upon avoiding participation in the war. Churchill had raged at the revelation that Eden, a key minister in the Cabinet, had not been informed of the invitation that he had received from the Prime Minister. And now, grumpily adjusting his bow tie, he snatched at his stick and began the short walk to Downing Street.
He was welcomed by Michael Beaumont, Halifax’s Parliamentary Private Secretary, with a hesitant smile. Unlike its usual, busy atmosphere, there was an eerie calm. Churchill’s coat and stick were taken and he was led into the Cabinet Room. There he found Halifax sat in his customary place with a tray of refreshments. The Prime Minister rose from his chair and nodded at his guest.
“Ah, Winston,” Halifax began, “it is agweeable to see you again.”
Churchill growled in reply. “Your note was most insistent m’Lord”. Without invitation he flounced down into the seat next to Halifax. “Well man, what do you want?”
Halifax was ruffled by Churchill’s belligerent tone (as Churchill had intended) and was initially silent. With forced calm he poured himself a cup of tea. He offered to pour a cup for Churchill, who shook his head. Halifax remembered: Winston hated tea. This doggy’s water is the stuff that gives the Dutch courage, Halifax thought wryly.
“Do you remember, Winston, when we sat awound this table in May nineteen-forty?”
Churchill grunted his assent. Halifax, realising with a sigh that he would get nothing further, stirred his tea.
“It was, I wather think,” Halifax continued, “the last occasion in which you, me and Neville worked together. But time marches on, I suppose,” he said wistfully. He turned awkwardly to look at Churchill. “May I take you to lunch? At the Dorchester?”
Churchill stared suspiciously at Halifax, alarmed by the reference to the long dead Neville Chamberlain. In the 1939 War Cabinet he had been out-voted on so many decisions that had left him feeling frustrated, enraged. “If you wish, Edward, if you wish.”
A few minutes later and the two men, one tall, gaunt and anxious looking and the other shorter, stouter and angrier, strolled together towards their destination, Halifax’s police officer (in plain clothes) following at a discreet distance. Churchill was baffled by Halifax’s behaviour: there was no stuffy Downing Street meeting, surrounded by the Party grandees and the Whips, but instead a cosmopolitan, generous luncheon in one of London’s finest addresses. The wily bugger is up to something, Churchill thought sourly. He was snapped out of this reflection by the shouts of encouragement to both he and Halifax, wishing both of them well. There were a few shouts for Churchill to return to Government.
“Ah, the people, the people,” he growled. Halifax, looking embarrassed, was silent.
They entered the Dorchester. Halifax acknowledged a greeting from Walter Monckton, who was dining with Geoffrey Dawson, but refused an offer for he and Churchill to join them. Today I take these fences alone, Halifax thought to himself.
They took seats, in a quiet, almost secluded corner that Churchill would later write as “perfect for a young baronet seducing a blushing debutante”. Halifax, to Churchill’s private enjoyment, tried to assert himself by ordering the wine. Halifax then looked through the menu.
“I understand,” Halifax said slowly, eyes still focussed on the menu, “that you pwopose to wise up and make a speech in the Commons.” He looked up at Churchill. “Is this cowwect?”
“It is,” Churchill said gruffly. “I intend to speak against you in the debate on the Pacific situation, yes.”
Halifax nodded, as if confirming something to himself. Churchill did not know it from his calm demeanour and disinterested tone but the Prime Minister felt paralysed by fear. He was grateful when a waiter arrived and started to pour the wine; he re-gathered his resolve and composed his thoughts.
“May I ask why?”
Churchill, who had been slouching, drew himself up to his full height. He pointed a finger at Halifax. “To decide once and for all the disputes bedevilling our party!”
“Such a move, as you must know, could twigger a vote of no confidence and pwecipitate a Genewal Election,” Halifax again moved to disguise his terror, sipping nonchalantly on his wine.
“Perhaps, but it must be done, and might end your reign as our leader.”
This was the climax of the conversation, the moment where Halifax’s continued survival as Prime Minister was, to him, seriously in doubt. Halifax, who had made most of his points, had one final card to play, and realised that now was the time to play it.
“Wab and those in the Party loyal to me are still stwong in numbers. You and your fwiends would stwuggle to win a leadership contest. Instead, you would condemn the Conservative Party to civil war, all for the Amewicans.”
“For the Empire, Edward! For right! For freedom from the evils of Imperialist Japan!” As Churchill barked his comments he noticed something new in Halifax’s eyes: fury. The Prime Minister was furious, his prickly temper had snapped.
“In a war where we are not wanted,” Halifax said. “A war that, were we to become involved, would bankwupt this countwy.” He sipped again on his wine; Churchill, watching him like a wary predator, realised that he was stalling. “Winston, you were in Cabinet in the Gweat War, you know the size of our war debts!”
“So you would see us turn into an apologist, collaborator state, in denial of our moral obligations, all because you’re quibbling about the cost?” Halifax moved to speak but Churchill cut across him. “What about the cost to our standing, our prestige! What price the honour of the British Empire?”
“What pwice the future of the Bwitish Empire!” Halifax yelped the words as his self-control lapsed. He coughed and looked for a way to evade Churchill, even if only for a few minutes. “Perhaps we should order our lunch,” he gestured for a waiter to come as he spoke. Tacitly calling a truce, the two men ordered their lunch.
Halifax was the last to order, as Churchill had guessed that the fussy peer would be. Placing down his menu with great care, Halifax slowly drank from a glass of water and finally, after a painful silence, looked up at Churchill.
“It is appawent to me,” he said carefully, “that we must be careful of not destwoying our fwagile economy with a wuinous war.”
“But it wouldn’t be a ruinous war,” Churchill said, deliberate calm laid over evident anger. “This could stimulate our industries, not strangle them!” He looked squarely at Halifax, leaning over the table towards Halifax. “Is that the sum of your fears? To dispense with our history, our glory, solely based on petty penny-pinching?”
Halifax’s mind was racing. He was struggling to understand where Churchill was heading with this. “No, I have many concerns. But the survival of our Commonwealth, and its twade, is a pwessing one.”
Churchill, who had up until now been very aggressive in tone and bearing, now suddenly beamed like a happy child. “I’m glad we agree on one thing, Edward!”
Halifax raised an eyebrow. “I don’t follow, I’m afwaid.”
“If we can agree some sort of economic agreement, we can join the Americans!” He pounded the table with his fist. The trap was sprung.
Halifax too realised that he was cornered. “That’s not pwecisely my point, Winston...”
“Let us speak to the Americans! If we can make an agreement, then we can march together, arm in arm!” He drank heavily from his glass of wine.
“Er, well, Winston,” Halifax’s mind was a whirl of confusion. “Erm, ah,” he struggled to buy time whilst he thought. “Who, er, yes whom, would you send?” An idea was forming, one that, Halifax thought maliciously to himself, was inspired.
“We have many talents in the Party, Edward!”
“Yes,” he smiled silkily. “But do you promise that, as long as I select a wobust member of the Party, ideally fwom you and your supporters, you would be content?” Churchill glowered. Halifax continued. “In which, I would be delighted to send you.”
“Me?”
“You are half-Amewican, you are well-known in the United States, and you are famous for your anti-appeasement whetowic! You are, also, one of the few Bwitish politicians known on the international stage. You are so obviously the logical choice.”
Churchill had trapped Halifax, who had in turn trapped him. Chuckling that they were, despite their obvious differences, so alike in the passion with which they fought for their beliefs, Churchill nodded. He would fight alright, and drag Edward bloody Halifax along with him.
“Very well, but I will expect to be given a free rein, Edward!”
“No, Winston, you will, with Lord Woolton, negotiate as best you can. Any agweement must have Cabinet appwoval, His Majesty would expect no less.”
And you know, deep down, that I will force the Cabinet to decline any arrangement that you make, Halifax thought slyly. The two men shook hands, parting in the manner of gentlemen. Halifax returned to Downing Street alone, happy in the thought that Churchill was soon to be far away causing trouble in Washington. He’s just as likely to enrage the Americans as to charm them, he thought smugly. It was an empty gesture, but one that had saved him from a Churchill speech to Parliament. He turned the corner into Downing Street, acknowledged the cheers of some passing tourists and nodded in reply to the greeting of the solitary policeman guarding the entrance to his official residence. He chuckled at the knowledge that Hitler, whether he was in Berlin or his mountain residence, was reputed to have a small army of guards and secret policemen protecting him whilst he, Lord Halifax, had one solitary constable keeping a very English watch over his official residence. As Cole wordlessly took his coat and hat Halifax was greeted by Major General Menzies. For once the intelligence chief was not looking his usual correct, well-presented self.
“Forgive the intrusion, Prime Minister, but I have just heard from HMS Suffolk out in the Far East. She reports that Phillipine radio is broadcasting that the Japanese have landed on Mindoro island. I’ve prepared a chart for Your Lordship here.” He gestured to a map on the table.
“What does this signify?”
“Well, My Lord, it is obviously the first step of their assault upon the Phillipines. An American General called Macarthur is in command of the combined US and Phillipine forces. But if the Japanese land in strength then I suspect that the Americans could struggle.”
“Does this impact upon us?”
“It does, Prime Minister. Control of the Phillipines would give the Japanese perfect bases from which to launch attacks on British possessions in the area. Brunei and Malaysia are particularly vulnerable.”
“Vewy well, I shall think about my weaction. Anything else, Sir Stewart?”
“One thing, My Lord. Your Lordship requested an update on the war in the Russia?”
Halifax frowned. “Did I?”
“You did, Sir. Two items of interest. Firstly, the Russians are defending Moscow. The citizens of the city appear to have been conscripted into defending their homes, and the Germans are meeting very tough opposition. They appear to be moving East, to be encircling the city. This is the front as of yesterday. I’ve marked Moscow with an arrow, My Lord.”
“In addition, the Italians are beginning to make their presence felt. Your Lordship will see from the summary of this month’s shipping losses that Italian aircraft flying from German-controlled airbases have claimed a number of significant hits.”
[Game Effect] – Churchill and Halifax, and the latest in the Russian and Pacific theatres.
Ok, ‘fessing time, a bit of a liberty taken here. I think that Halifax would try and send Churchill off somewhere – anywhere rather than London! Would he send him to meet the Americans? Possibly, though it’s ‘borderline’ whether such a risky move would appeal to the deeply cautious Lord H. Perhaps this is a punt too far from me, perhaps.
But yet, and here’s the rub, it is a clever move – it shuts the hawks up by sending their most prominent public figure (perhaps an honour shared with Eden) to a capital that our gallant PM is wary of. If Churchill comes home empty handed then Halifax has won this battle (if not the war!) with the hawks – unless they disown Winston then they have to back down. If he comes away with a generous offer, made in exchange for British help, then Halifax has the comfort that Butler, Maxwell-Fyfe, Cross, and possibly Hankey will be reluctant: only Eden, and perhaps an increasingly hawkish Oliver Stanley, would fight to honour the deal. The key issue here, and perhaps the dogdiest presumption in this update, is whether Churchill would accept. In my defence he was a far more complicated character than the “never surrender” character made out in popular mythology – he was a clever politician and might see for himself a chance to make a difference.
Trekaddict: But they’re not, that’s the point. Halifax is desperately trying to keep them out of hostilities.
Kurt_Steiner:
Trekaddict: Not yet, too soon dear boy.
Enewald: The Foreign Office is, to quote a modern phrase, “in a tizzy” over the whole thing.
Dashstar1972: Welcome to the madhouse! I’ve tried to keep this even-handed, but occasionally my frustration at what is after all a game (and a very placid one with Halifax in charge!) spills over. I agree that Halifax is not being cowardly, I see it more as a strategic choice (let the Americans and Japs tire each other out before looking at intervention). Jumping in for purely opportunistic motives is equally daft – it reeks of Mussolini’s “seat at the peace conference” argument. But I think that to stay out is potentially short-sighted.
Kurt_Steiner:
Prijezda_Asen: The Americans, to my view, were in a very tangled position. They obviously saw the wisdom of assisting the “goodies”, and bent the rules as neutrality as much as they could. But the US obviously had its national interest at heart – and sought to emerge from the war as strong as it could. As an Englishman I can curse FDR for his unsympathetic postwar plans, but I completely understand why he did it.
Dashstar1972: I think that with this war being very limited (Pacific, one enemy), the Empire could just about manage it without “selling the family silver”. But Halifax’s view that the fragile economic recovery has to come first is probably the most sensible opinion he has ever formed.
Nathan_Madien: I’m agonising over Macarthur – writing an update about him is a minefield. Edward VIII was easier for heaven’s sakes!
DonnieBaseball: Halifax would certainly not offer Churchill a cabinet position – he’s having enough trouble with Eden! I think that the goodwill trip to Washington is the best that he could hope for.
Sir Humphrey: And that position is evidently not vacant!
Arilou: And that may be part of his reason for accepting the mission to Washington. Eden is the best hope of the hawks, and there seems to be a deliberate approach on the part of the hawks to keep him as safe as possible.
El Pip: Good Lord! El Pip supports the PM! You’re right, but with the US would be wise to a slippery Britain joining in long after she was really needed (ie now – the USN is a shambles at the minute and Burma is the most obvious front for offensive action).
Trekaddict: That’s the ticket! I’ll make a Halifax voter of you yet!
MITSGS John: I seriously doubt whether the Empire could win the peace from outside. And that is a key worry of Eden, Winston, Duff-Cooper and all the other nutters who support them.
Nathan Madien:
El Pip:
I fear old Winnie's trip will be in vain, unless the US situation turns terribly dire I think FDR's deep seated (and hypocritical) anti-Imperialism combined with Hull's Anglophobia will stop the US making a worthwhile offer. For all his faults FDR had the foresight to actually look beyond the war and try to ensure the peace was as good for US interests as possible.
Hence unless the USN took an utter kicking and then losses PI and Guam I think FDR will probably decide the US can win in the end without British help, particularly if it requires giving up anything of any value to obtain that help. Plus of course what possible chips does the US have? With territory of the table (would Britain even want any? Probably not I think) it's down too money or tech. And tech doesn't look good at this stage; No radar, no jets, no decent aircraft, a few decent tank designs perhaps (but even then not worth entering a war for, at least British designers have some actual combat experience to incorporate). Mass production ideas perhaps, but their more cultural than anything you can usefully transfer.
Of course there is the option of pure, simple money (ala Napoleonic subsidies) , but given the lack of any 'Arsenal of Democracy' type arms sales I wouldn't be at all surprise if the US had nose dived back into recession under FDR's relentless tinkering.
Thus I think the FDR will be disinclined to offer anything to start with and hasn't got anything to give even if he wanted to. Still at least Woolie survived as ambassador and there's a good chance the UK will stay out of a ruinous Pacific War for a bit longer, so on balance quite a good update.
Hence unless the USN took an utter kicking and then losses PI and Guam I think FDR will probably decide the US can win in the end without British help, particularly if it requires giving up anything of any value to obtain that help. Plus of course what possible chips does the US have? With territory of the table (would Britain even want any? Probably not I think) it's down too money or tech. And tech doesn't look good at this stage; No radar, no jets, no decent aircraft, a few decent tank designs perhaps (but even then not worth entering a war for, at least British designers have some actual combat experience to incorporate). Mass production ideas perhaps, but their more cultural than anything you can usefully transfer.
Of course there is the option of pure, simple money (ala Napoleonic subsidies) , but given the lack of any 'Arsenal of Democracy' type arms sales I wouldn't be at all surprise if the US had nose dived back into recession under FDR's relentless tinkering.
Thus I think the FDR will be disinclined to offer anything to start with and hasn't got anything to give even if he wanted to. Still at least Woolie survived as ambassador and there's a good chance the UK will stay out of a ruinous Pacific War for a bit longer, so on balance quite a good update.
Agree with Pip--likely we'll see FDR offer some minor trade concessions ... anyway even if the US offered all the oil in Texas, Halifax & Co. would snub it.
It all comes down to Japan--if she declares on the Empire, then this'll all be papered over and it'll be "happy brotherhood of Anglo-American arms".
Churchill is right on the economics I think--this would be much more a limited colonial war which could work to UK's economic advantage, rather than a war of national survival that empties the coffers, wears out the factories and runs up the debts.
If only Halifax could show the deftness and wiliness he comes up with against Tory rebels when dealing with foreign crises ...
It all comes down to Japan--if she declares on the Empire, then this'll all be papered over and it'll be "happy brotherhood of Anglo-American arms".
Churchill is right on the economics I think--this would be much more a limited colonial war which could work to UK's economic advantage, rather than a war of national survival that empties the coffers, wears out the factories and runs up the debts.
If only Halifax could show the deftness and wiliness he comes up with against Tory rebels when dealing with foreign crises ...
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So the theory is that a medium-sized war is good for the economy but a large one is not? I'm not so sure; under this theory the US should currently be undergoing an economic renaissance after blowing a trillion dollars in Iraq and Afghanistan (something Americans are remarkably sanguine about if you ask me!)
Granted World War II seemed to pump-prime the US economy but I wonder if that war was actually just a massive transfer of wealth and power to the US with the US becoming the world's factory and breadbasket.
Off-topic, it seems a similar process has occurred in the last 10 years viz China; it was striking that Obama visting China was essentially that of a mortgagee visiting his bank manager
I'm not so sure; under this theory the US should currently be undergoing an economic renaissance after blowing a trillion dollars in Iraq and Afghanistan (something Americans are remarkably sanguine about if you ask me!)Granted World War II seemed to pump-prime the US economy but I wonder if that war was actually just a massive transfer of wealth and power to the US with the US becoming the world's factory and breadbasket.
Off-topic, it seems a similar process has occurred in the last 10 years viz China; it was striking that Obama visting China was essentially that of a mortgagee visiting his bank manager
By the end of that update, I was cheering for Halifax(!) He really stuck the knife in when the odds seemed nearly all against him.
Churchill thinks he can just waltz the fleet into Tokyo Bay, shell the imperial palace or what-have-you and then its all a jolly nice war then jaunt back to Singapore. This aint the Bombardment of Zanzibar...
An odd encounter: two men caring for the Empire, one for economics, the other one for glory.
Then no one would notice another madman in that madhouse.
No, they are sending the madmen to Washington!
Then no one would notice another madman in that madhouse.
Sending Churchill to America...one of those events that we have been kicking around for quite a while...seems to be at hand now.
Climacteric?
I think it is interesting that you wrote 1940 out.
I like how you write about what is happening in the picture.
"Yes! We must keep the Japanese out so we can continue controlling other peoples' lives!"
Le Jones, the conversation between Halifax and Churchill was very enjoyable.
Money talks, after all.
Quite a magic trick.
Buying time...a sly move indeed.
"Hitler's Bodyguard"...I have seen that show.
I agree. It isn't easy to figure out what to do with MacArthur. Save him? Kill him off? It's a tough call to make.
Well...Washington is the madmen capital of the world. I mean, we have the Roosevelt Administration and Congress. That's a lot of madmen right there.
As an American, I would comment...but "Video Killed the Radio Star" is occupying my mind right now.
Climacteric?
I think it is interesting that you wrote 1940 out.
A few minutes later and the two men, one tall, gaunt and anxious looking and the other shorter, stouter and angrier, strolled together towards their destination, Halifax’s police officer (in plain clothes) following at a discreet distance.
I like how you write about what is happening in the picture.
"Yes! We must keep the Japanese out so we can continue controlling other peoples' lives!"
Le Jones, the conversation between Halifax and Churchill was very enjoyable.
Money talks, after all.
Quite a magic trick.
Buying time...a sly move indeed.
"Hitler's Bodyguard"...I have seen that show.
I agree. It isn't easy to figure out what to do with MacArthur. Save him? Kill him off? It's a tough call to make.
No, they are sending the madmen to Washington!
Well...Washington is the madmen capital of the world. I mean, we have the Roosevelt Administration and Congress. That's a lot of madmen right there.
So the theory is that a medium-sized war is good for the economy but a large one is not?
As an American, I would comment...but "Video Killed the Radio Star" is occupying my mind right now.
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