China's AARight to be Hostile - A different way for the Guomindang

[Porkman]

Zzzzz... - This has gone from being a how to guide on how to beat Japan, to becoming China, as it should have been. So good markets minus autocracy. Essentially Taiwan 40 years early.

Leviathan07 - The pictures are from 1947 when they were still on the mainland. The political system is more like Taiwan in the early 80's minus the martial law. It's mostly one party but there is pluralism.

Ahriman - The election breakdown by group, (minorities, overseas Chinese, etc) is in the real constitution. The stuff about proxies is something that I just made up, but I wanted to have something that shows that this is still fairly corrupt and the laws on paper still don't match the reality. I have to write walls of text as the actual gameplay aspect is just June 2nd 1947 research "Yong Li Alkali Company has completed their research into Plastics."

Nathan Madien - I found the election pictures and then stuff just wrote itself. In the actual game, since I'd hit pretty much optimal sliders in 1945, I just started shifting over to Democratic.

Van5 - Your compliments are still appreciated.

Tanzhang (譚張) - The long arc of history into now is going to be the next and final update after this. As for Zhang Xueliang, Why wouldn't he be? In this timeline, the Xi'an incident never happened. As far as the KMT is concerned, Zhang Xueliang is the heroic general who helped them win the Central Plains war and has, since then, served with distinction in both the government and the army.

Maj. von Mauser - It can't be dead, it's still in your signature.


The update.

[Porkman]

The Republic of China Army

By the end of the Second World War, the Republic of China Army was the largest in the world, with over 8 million soldiers under arms, if staff and support personnel were included. It was an impressive number though it assumed that all divisions remained at their full paper strength of 20,000 soldiers. This was rarely the case, though this time it was by design, rather than incompetence or corruption. Chinese divisions had been receiving reduced reinforcements since the fall of France and most troops finishing their deployments were not replaced. This was not for lack of men, with a population of over 500 million, the men were there if necessary, but rather a conscious move by Chief of Staff, Jiang Baili, to reduce the amount of soldiers deployed abroad. The 122nd division stationed in Foggia was typical. Though officially listed as having 20,000 men, the amount on the ground was only 14,000, with the remainder listed as "pending transit." The reality of that phrase was that the soldiers "pending transit" to their units on the front were essentially in reserve within China and most remained there until the war ended at which point they could be formally discharged.　



This had temporarily postponed decision on a much larger and more troublesome question. The exact nature and strength of the Republic's post war military.

Everyone acknowledged that it was unsustainable at it's current size, but few knew what to do about the relentless inertia of expansion. Jiang Baili had set ambitious targets for reduction but left the details vague. Whether it was by recruitment of new divisions, the formal absorption of formerly independent troops or the expansion of existing formations, the Republic of China Army had expanded every year since the founding of Whampoah in 1923. In that time, it had become almost unrecognizable. For one thing, the army was far more professional. Unlike their 1920's predecessors, the junior officers in China's army were all literate, trained in modern weapons, and more importantly, competent at managing both tactics and logistics. The attrition rate among soldiers within the army had been reduced drastically and the combat readiness of the army had gone up substantially. New weapons and technology had helped but the biggest factor was the adoption of basic sanitation, consistent logistics and the expansion of the Medical Corps, though later histories would often ignore this aspect when discussing the efficiency of the Republic of China Army.

In any case, the army had to make a transition from an army of conquest to one of occupation, though the second aspect was very limited. Western generals had been surprised by how quickly their counterparts in the Republic had discussed withdrawals of troops. There was every indication that China would be out of Europe within months. Even the former Soviet areas were not going to see a large Chinese presence. For the Chinese leadership, running the internal affairs of another country was just not desirable and unlike the British, they did not see themselves as the guarantors of peace in Europe or even particularly invested in the the post war situation there. According the American Secretary of State, Cordell Hull, the abrupt Chinese timetable for exiting Europe was one of the major factors which spurred the European allies towards greater post war integration.

In 1944, with the major diplomatic aspects of the peace decided, the General Staff met for an unusually democratic and heated discussion of the future of the Chinese army. Pang Bingxun, Yan Xishan and Long Yun were in favor of a larger peace time force while Zhang Xueliang, Bai Chongxi and Jiang Baili were opposed. Not lost on either group was the composition of the junior officer corps. The older officers tended to undervalue civilian leadership and there was still an impression that the armed forces were the senior partner in the Republic government. In 1928, a third of the Nationalist Army officer corps were assessed from provincial military academies or rose from the ranks, a third were Baoding graduates, and another third were Whampoa graduates. Of those few who had attended military academies abroad, most had studied in Japan.



The Chinese army of 1945 was vastly different. While the composition of the most senior officers still reflected these ratios, the establishment of the Zhongshan fund in 1937 had vastly increased the amount of Chinese students studying abroad. While predominantly focused on building professional skills, students did have the option to enroll in Western military academies if they desired to do so. Between 1904 and 1937, when the Zhongshan act was passed, Only 93 Chinese students had attended American military Institutions (The Virginia Military Institute in Lexington, Viginia, Norwich University in Northfield, Vermont, The Citadel in Charleston, South Carolina and the United States Military Academy at West Point). These graduates were few in number but were invariably exceptionally gifted. For example, Wang Geng was the son of a Shanghai businessman who studied engineering at both Michigan and Columbia universities before taking a B.Litt. in history, with honors, from Princeton in 1915. Though originally planning to pursue graduate studies at Harvard, Wang accepted an appointment to West Point and earned a second baccalaureate in 1918, standing 12th in his class of 227. Another student, Wang Chengzhi, was a graduate of Nanyang College in 1916, and attended Harvard and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) before being appointed to West Point. Wang stood 14th in the graduating Class of 1922. While technically skilled and generally more competent than their Chinese trained counterparts, the graduates of western military academies had generally been excluded from high positions because they didn't have the benefit of 關係 that the much more numerous Whampoah and Baoding graduates shared. During the warlord and Nanjing period, commanders drew their staff and appointed subordinate commanders from former classmates in a traditional Confucian pattern of "human relations and social conventions." Lacking membership in such prestigious alumni associations, the returned students were denied the best postings and commands or, in some instances before the 1938 army reform, even commissions. .

Fortunately, two more American educated Chinese gave them the opportunity to serve. In 1929, T.V. Soong (Chiang Kai Shek's brother in law and head of the China development bank) and then finance minister, Kong Xiangxi, wanted to collect the government controlled salt monopoly/tax more effectively. As part of this they were empowered to create Revenue Guard units to collect and transport the salt tax (local warlords often felt that the salt tax was the property of the local administration and the Revenue Guards were there to politely disagree.) Importantly, these were subordinate to the Ministry of Finance rather than the normal military command structure. T.V Soong had appointed Wang Geng as its commander due to their previous association in America as part of Chinese Delegation to the International Federation of Students. The revenue units were funded from the salt tax directly and were, by consequence among the most well equipped forces in China during the early 30's. They also attracted an inordinate number of American trained officers. Their first combat deployment happened during the first Shanghai incident in 1932 when Chiang Kai Shek wanted to reinforce the 19th Route army then fighting in Shanghai. Fearing that sending in the regular Revolutionary Army would escalate the incident to a full scale war, he dispatched the Revenue Guard as reinforcements where they fought the Japanese to a standstill.

Following a truce in May, the brigade was ordered to Haizhou in northern Jiangsu province, and placed under the direct command of Wen Yingxing, a 1909 graduate of West Point. Under Wen's leadership, the tax unit would become noted for superior equipment and marksmanship. Many returned students would be recruited over the next five years to fill command and staff positions. Zhu Shiming's disbanded Hunan training regiment had already been reorganized as the 1st Regiment under its former commander, Colonel Zhao Hengjin (Norwich '28). Colonel Sun Liren (VMI '27) was given command of the 4th Regiment. Appointed as directors of Revenue Guard schools for officers and enlisted men were George Bao (Norwich '14), Zhang Daohong (USMA '18), and Zhou Yanjun (VMI '27). Zeng Xigui (VMI '25) and Ma Zhuan (Norwich '25) served on Wen Yingxing's staff,

During the war with Japan, the Revenue Guards were formally integrated into the National Revolutionary army, where they served with distinction. The death of Chiang Kai Shek and the ascendancy of Kong Xiangxi to presidency was what finally opened up the top command track for American trained officers. Kong Xiangxi was never going to be able to build the same sort of network of military patronage that Chiang Kai Shek had enjoyed, but he remained acutely aware of how much pull he lacked within the Republic's Army, thus making room for Western educated officers in the command structure was a quick way to shore up support. This was supported by Dai Li who saw it as a good way to weaken the Whampoah clique's stranglehold within the army.

American cooperation both during the war with Japan and with Russia, had increased the trend with American officers serving as instructors in Chinese military academies. The Republic also sent officers abroad to study. For example, over 800 Chinese officers received military training in America or Britain during 1943 compared to 100 in the 30 years before 1937. This batch of students was modern in their goals and ambitions and did not view the military as a step stone to obtaining temporal power.

While war expenditures had forced the government to obtain massive loans from the United States and forced a reinstitution of many unpopular taxes, for individual officials involved in administering the war industry, it was a massively lucrative endeavor and even those only peripherally involved worried about what would happen if the munitions factories went silent.

The delay in deployments had also caused an interesting conflict. For many soldiers, being drafted had meant access to hot meals, good clothing and a guaranteed place to sleep. (One of the things that was almost universally mentioned by American soldiers running Chinese logistics was the sheer capacity for roughing it. The dependence of so many on the army for their livelihoods was one of the many reasons for keeping th army large. People feared what would happen should millions of unemployed soldiers return en masse.

The final result of the negotiations was an agreement to reduce the size of the army by nearly half with further reductions to be announced later.



The Chinese state also was desperate to update China's infrastructure. It needed to integrate the newly acquired territories as well as open up China's internal market. One of the enduring legacies of the 19th century had been a shift of Chinese trade from the interior to the coast. The government was keen to extend modernity into the hinterlands. The final plan would not be complete for many years.



The plans had been originally formulated by Sun Yat Sen and the use of his name was a big part in getting the legislation past.



This public works project would be under the control of the Veteran Affairs Committee for employment 行政院國軍退除役官兵輔導委員會 and it was one of many measures designed to prevent the large numbers of returning soldiers from being unemployed.



The end of the war had not stopped China's nuclear program. The capture of the German Uranprojekt as well as Russian sources had given the Chinese effort a huge boost. The facility in Qinghai was expanding massively and few in the West had realized it. Their was debate within the military as to whether the Chinese should test the bomb and thus give away its existence.



China would become the world's first nuclear power on November 15th. 1946 when a uranium implosion device was detonated in the Taklimakan desert south of Aksu. Both the American and the British governments were only informed after the fact and they lodged several diplomatic protests. Reaction might have been stronger, but everyone knew that China lacked long range aircraft capable of delivering such a device to anywhere in Europe or the Western hemisphere and thus they accepted the stated purpose of being a safeguard against Russian or Japanese Revanchism. That said, during the 1948 election, president Truman would face charges of being complicit in allowing China to get the bomb before the United States.

The range of Chinese missiles based in the Pacific base of Enitewok. With the ability to hit Hawaii, these missiles were the only ones with the range to hit US soil.



For most people in the West, the worrying storm clouds were in Europe where the government in Poland vied for influence over Belarus and France was racked by a rapid succession of governments as the largest party, Parti communiste français, (the French communists), tussled with a variety of gaullists, monarchists and socialists. The loss of Indochina and the inability of the French resistance to play a meaningful role in the liberation of Metropolitan France had lead to nationwide malaise that politicians sought both to rectify and take advantage of. Britain had given independence to India and Pakistan in 1947, and in the process, China had pressed for the land that had been taken away by Simla Accords in 1914 and the area had been restored to Tibet and put under the authority of the Dalai Lama. The Germans and the Italians were pressing for a European common market in steel and coal, but were hampered by the unreliability French support for the project.

The world would be rocked by the second announcement in 1949, the Chinese development of the first long range ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads.



The Dong Feng "East Wind" 東風 5 was a massive improvement that caught the rest of the Allies completely by surprise. The Chinese had captured the German rocketry program at Peenemünde and the yet to be deployed V-2 series of rockets. As far as Britain and the United States knew, German rocketry had been limited to the inaccurate buzz bombs as the war had ended before any V-2's could be launched. The Chinese had "requisitioned" the entire German operation at Peenemünde, personnel included and moved them to South Sichuan. The resulting collaboration over the past 6 years had massively increased the pace of Chinese rocketry. While the rest of the world thought large scale ballistic missiles both impractical and hypothetical, Chinese researchers had been working from the V-2 and increasing the size and accuracy of their own rockets. The public announcement of the new rocket was followed by a launch into the South Pacific. While it hit nothing and was only a test, everyone understood the message. The Chinese could drop a nuke from 8,000 km away in a way that was impossible to intercept.

This put them well in the range of Europe.



While China's Pacific island bases even allowed them to hit the continental United States.



The only place that was actually out of range was South America.



The strategic calculus has been entirely upended, see how modern history is altered, next time on AARight to Be Hostile!

[Zzzzz...]

No Cultural Revolution. No Communism. China will rule the world this time.

[Mattabesta]

This time? It'll just take less time if that's what you mean.

[Tanzhang (譚張)]

Awww... I wanted to see political changes! Nice to see this AAR hasn't been abandoned though.

[Nathan Madien]

A nuclear-armed China capable of targeting half the world...that's just awesome (in a scary sort of way).

[Leviathan07]

...and this is how China came to rule the world

Honestly, though, the US atomic bomb cannot be far off either, and should an arms race develop, the Americans will surely be MUCH, much better able to out-produce the Chinese! They are the US of frickin A after all, the industrial powerhouse of the mid-20th century. China may be rich and enormously powerful here, but it's still a country of vast distances, enormous rural poverty and limitless need for domestic investment.

Are India and Pakistan still having their post-breakup war over Kashmir? I suppose China won't be overly interested in the war itself, but maybe the two parties might want to have China acting as an arbiter, of sorts?

[H.Appleby]

...and this is how China came to rule the world

Honestly, though, the US atomic bomb cannot be far off either, and should an arms race develop, the Americans will surely be MUCH, much better able to out-produce the Chinese! They are the US of frickin A after all, the industrial powerhouse of the mid-20th century. China may be rich and enormously powerful here, but it's still a country of vast distances, enormous rural poverty and limitless need for domestic investment.

Are India and Pakistan still having their post-breakup war over Kashmir? I suppose China won't be overly interested in the war itself, but maybe the two parties might want to have China acting as an arbiter, of sorts?

Why can't the USA and China stand guard over the new postwar world? The US and China have always been pretty close, so with a more tolerable form of government, there isn't any need for conflict between the two nations.

[Maj. von Mauser]

It's great to see another update!

I'm excited to see how the modern world has turned out!

Also, this AAR will always be in my signature. It's one of the best I've ever had the pleasure to read!

[Nathan Madien]

Why can't the USA and China stand guard over the new postwar world? The US and China have always been pretty close, so with a more tolerable form of government, there isn't any need for conflict between the two nations.

Considering China can target half the United States, I think it would make sense for the Americans to keep the Chinese happy.

[Scandinavian]

Why can't the USA and China stand guard over the new postwar world? The US and China have always been pretty close, so with a more tolerable form of government, there isn't any need for conflict between the two nations.

Because both are net importers of raw materials from, and exporters of finished goods to, a limited set of colonies. In particular, China in this timeline is fully able to contest the high seas against any power other than the US. Which means that, unless the US opposes them, they can carve out their own colonial empire from the disintegrating French and British commonwealths. The US has to prevent this, in essentially the same manner the US worked (and works) to contain Russia, unless they want to be relegated to the same sort of second-tier power that Germany or Russia is today.

The "cold war" was always about colonial hegemony, not ideology. The fact that China has a more palatable ideology than Russia did just means that the propaganda will have to be a little more creative (or more explicitly racist).

[Black Watch]

I ought to start reading this. I've read up to the part where Nationalist forces made first contact with the Japanese in the Beijing area. That's the part that's important to me right now, as I started playing a Nat Chi GC, and put it on hold when I was unable to hold the Japanese along the Beijing-Tianjin line and they broke through and encircled 20 divisions in Beijing. I think my mistake was that I didn't begin moving troops to the frontier fast enough; many divisions were still on the way when the Japanese DoW'd. I'll load up again a few months earlier and try to get my troops into position sooner.

I just gotta say, you got lucky during the early wars against the warlords. In my playthrough, I refused to make peace at the Xi'an Incident and went ahead and annexed Com Chi. Then I redeployed my troops south just in time for the Guangxi Clique DoW. So far, so good.

But when I said no Guangxi's peace offer and continued for full annexation, well, gosh darn it, Shanxi, Yunnan, Sinkiang, and Japan all declared war on me!

I tried my best, but, being attacked literally from all directions, it seemed hopeless. I actually might have been able to win even under those circumstances, but, not having the patience for that kind of war, I had to reload to before the Guangxi peace event fired and settle for limited gains.

With that in mind, one trick I learned from your AAR (although too late to use it in my game) was that the Guangxi peace event only fires when 30% of their cores are held. I hadn't known this. By occupying all their core VP provinces within hours of each other, you were able to annex without the event firing. Very clever.

The part where you were really lucky was where Shanxi and Yunnan made their own alliance instead of allying with Japan. If Japanese troops could have marched through Shanxi while your whole army was tied up in the south, things could possibly have gone worse, methinks?

I even had one game (playing another country, not any of the Chinese states or Japan) where AI-controlled Nat Chi aggressively chose total annexation of both Com Chi and Guangxi. Shanxi got pissed and declared war on Nat Chi. But Japan, instead of declaring war on Nat Chi as well, declared war on Shanxi! (LOL!)

Now, of course, things seem to have come a long way, with China having defeated Japan and the Soviets and Germany all together. Seriously, I have to read the middle to see how this came about.

PS: Note that I'm still playing vanilla HoI2 v1.3. It may be that China is simply more powerful in your version of the game, so there may really be less that I can do in my game.

[TremblingBlue]

I just feel sheer excitement while reading this. I remember the old CCIP...it was fantastic. I can only imagine doing this sort of thing on DH kaiserreich now.

[satilisu]

I ought to start reading this. I've read up to the part where Nationalist forces made first contact with the Japanese in the Beijing area. That's the part that's important to me right now, as I started playing a Nat Chi GC, and put it on hold when I was unable to hold the Japanese along the Beijing-Tianjin line and they broke through and encircled 20 divisions in Beijing. I think my mistake was that I didn't begin moving troops to the frontier fast enough; many divisions were still on the way when the Japanese DoW'd. I'll load up again a few months earlier and try to get my troops into position sooner.

In my China GC, I wrote off Beijing and instead formed a defensive line at the Yellow River. I then spent two years raising something like 25 field armies before going on the offensive.

Anyways, this has been one of my favorite AARs for a while now, and probably the first I read from start to finish.

[Porkman]

Ok, so I'm trundling along on the last update, I know kind of what happens but I have no idea as to the format. I'm torn between doing the textbook style exposition, or the now cliche "class of college students in the modern day." Finally, there's the issue of how far forward to take it. If I go all the way to 2012, I have to cover inevitably cover all of the brush fire wars that still happen during the Pax Sinica and I also have to do things like go into how domestic politics in Europe changed?

Therefore I'm opening up the floor to speculation about how a resurgent China and the world it inhabits handle the next 60 years.

Finally, the current China has just christened their first Aircraft carrier and it's a Shi Lang class. This is slightly different from mine where the Shi Lang class was a heavy cruiser, but I called the name.

[Black Watch]

In my China GC, I wrote off Beijing and instead formed a defensive line at the Yellow River. I then spent two years raising something like 25 field armies before going on the offensive.

Anyways, this has been one of my favorite AARs for a while now, and probably the first I read from start to finish.

When I tried again, I also formed a defensive line at the Yellow River, because I realized that if Shanxi doesn't get annexed by Japan first it makes things a lot more awkward for me later, since a player-controlled Nationalist China doesn't have the amazing magical ally-annexation powers that AI-controlled Nat Chi does.

My game turned out similarly to this, with some differences.

1) I attacked the Japanese home islands with 9 divisions of paratroopers instead of with amphibious landings as Porkman did. I did it to avoid facing off against the Japanese fleet.

Unfortunately, I had joined the Allies before doing this. Even though China did all the fighting, the Japanese surrender event fired and they surrendered to the Americans. Like WTF seriously. The Americans didn't even occupy a single Japanese island. So Japan became a puppet of the US, with no territory going to me; and, to add insult to injury, Jinan even became theirs! (WTF ever?) I had no way of getting it back because I couldn't declare war on them, and in any case they were a puppet of the US. And for some reason, despite being a puppet of the US, they mysteriously left the Allies, taking all of their VPs with them. FFS. I joined the Allies for the blueprints and the resources, but maybe I should do it after taking Japan.

2) I didn't declare war on the Soviets. I waited until invading German forces touched the Soviet-Chinese border, and then attacked the Germans. The Soviets were pretty much finished off at this point, but they had something like 300 divisions holed up in Moscow. While I was in the long hard slog of pushing the Germans back to Europe, the Americans helped as well, landing in Norway and moving through Finland and into Russia.

Final result: China controls most of Eurasia, with the Americans controlling Scandinavia and northern Russia. Hilariously, Moscow (with the 300+ divisions) was entirely surrounded by American territory. The Soviets still control Far East Siberia, but it's completely cut off from their capital, so a ton of resources piled up in Vladivostok.

I wish I could have taken a screenshot of that remarkable result, but unfortunately I accidentally overwrote that save file with one of my other games.

NOTE: My game was with vanilla HoI2 v1.3. The events really need some work. And of course I could really have used the CIP's resource-increasing events (something I think HoI as a whole needs).

[satilisu]

Ok, so I'm trundling along on the last update, I know kind of what happens but I have no idea as to the format. I'm torn between doing the textbook style exposition, or the now cliche "class of college students in the modern day." Finally, there's the issue of how far forward to take it. If I go all the way to 2012, I have to cover inevitably cover all of the brush fire wars that still happen during the Pax Sinica and I also have to do things like go into how domestic politics in Europe changed?

Therefore I'm opening up the floor to speculation about how a resurgent China and the world it inhabits handle the next 60 years.

Finally, the current China has just christened their first Aircraft carrier and it's a Shi Lang class. This is slightly different from mine where the Shi Lang class was a heavy cruiser, but I called the name.

Textbook epilogues sounds like a better option. It'd fit in well with the rest of the AAR.

[Xie]

Ok, so I'm trundling along on the last update, I know kind of what happens but I have no idea as to the format. I'm torn between doing the textbook style exposition, or the now cliche "class of college students in the modern day." Finally, there's the issue of how far forward to take it. If I go all the way to 2012, I have to cover inevitably cover all of the brush fire wars that still happen during the Pax Sinica and I also have to do things like go into how domestic politics in Europe changed?

Therefore I'm opening up the floor to speculation about how a resurgent China and the world it inhabits handle the next 60 years.

Finally, the current China has just christened their first Aircraft carrier and it's a Shi Lang class. This is slightly different from mine where the Shi Lang class was a heavy cruiser, but I called the name.

Go all the way to 2012----------and do a hybrid of textbook epilogue and "reflection" epilogue.

[Nathan Madien]

I don't think you really need to go all the way out to 2012. You could just limit the scope of this AAR to a certain timeframe (1920s-1950s or something to that effect) and leave it at that.

[Mr. Sulu]

I think that the cutoff point should be 1950-60, but that there should be a sort of reflective look at the time after "the actual" AAR ends, such as how the world looks like in 2012. By the way, I haven't posted before, but I have to say, this is one of the best AARs I have read. I really enjoy the mix of excellent writing and gameplay.