To: Stalin and the Politburo
When: December 13, 1935
The world is in an unstable situation. No ties of mutual aid link any two governments together, save those of the United Kingdom and Germany. It is common knowledge that these two governments aim at dominating Europe, if not the entire world, primarily through conquest. It is obvious that the Soviet Union will at some point by 1943 find itself at war with these two other powers. Thus, STAVKA considers it imperative to gain access to resources and industries that may otherwise be closed to the Soviet Union and to build up the Soviet Red Army to a level acceptable for a great power.
Expansion of the Soviet Red Army
We at STAVKA have decided upon a certain target to hit by early 1942 to be fully prepared for war. This aim is to field twelve full Fronts in Europe; each of these Fronts but one will consist of an HQ, seventeen Rifle Divisions, four Motorized Rifle Divisions, two Mechanized Rifle Divisions, two Interceptor Divisions and two Close Air Support Divisions. These will be comprised into six corps controlled directly by the Front commander, with the six Motorized and Mechanized Rifle Divisions serving as the Front reserve. These Fronts shall be Murmansk, Leningrad, 1-3 Baltic, 1-3 Belarusian, and 1-3 Ukrainian. The final Front is a Reserve Front stationed around Moscow to protect the capital, it will consist only of fifteen Rifle Divisions and the usual complement of air support; this Front will come directly under STAVKA’s command.
STAVKA intends to deploy three Fronts in Asia. Two of these Fronts will be comprised of twelve Rifle Divisions, with a mobile corps of three Cavalry Divisions. The third Front shall be comprised of twelve Mountaineer Divisions, along with a reserve corps of three Cavalry Divisions.
Also in Europe STAVKA plans on deploying three dedicated Shock Armies, independent of the Fronts. Each Shock Army shall be comprised of three corps of three Rifle Divisions, each with a heavy artillery brigade attached. Similarly, there shall be two Tank Armies. Each Tank Army shall be comprised of four Tank Divisions, four Motorized Rifle Divisions and two Mechanized Rifle Divisions in four corps.
Finally, STAVKA anticipates creating an Airborne force of two Paratrooper corps, each with three Paratrooper Divisions reinforced by engineer detachments. It is expected that this Airborne force will be at the forefront of any major operation, dropping deep in Germany’s or Britain’s strategic rear.
STAVKA intends to oversee the annexation many nations before the coming of war. However, as STAVKA is as yet inexperienced in directing strategic operations, it will only embark on two at a time. Of highest priority are the conquests of Turkey and Persia; Turkey to gain control of the Bosporus and Persia for the oil at Abadan. Subsequent operations will attempt the conquests of Tannu Tuva, Manchuria, the three Baltic States, Finland, Bessarabia, eastern Poland, the western Black Sea coast, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Sinkiang. STAVKA believes, by use of war games, that initial Red Army forces are sufficient for the conquest of these countries. STAVKA has also run a specific war game relating to the conquest of Turkey, due to highly sensitive feature, the control of the Bosporus, and estimates that the conquest may be fully completed by early April if the attack is begun immediately.
Anticipated German, British Intentions
Due to a an extended period of strategic deception, STAVKA has planted the idea in the British Imperial General Staff and the German Oberkommando des Wehrmacht that STAVKA intends to occupy Spain; thus it is expected that Britain will attempt to conquer Spain early. Additionally, a spy STAVKA has in the OkW reports that Germany aims to gain the Romanian oil fields at Ploesti and the many deposits of rare minerals in Yugoslavia. It is expected that from these two Balkan countries Germany will attempt to make a push on Istanbul to open up the Black Sea to her transports, thus adding urgency to the conquest of Turkey and of the western Black Sea coast. Spies also report that Germany anticipates conquering Finland, this must be prevented as it places the Murmansk Front in a very difficult strategic position. STAVKA also has reports of German intentions for the conquest of Scandinavia. Germany has disavowed interest in Poland; STAVKA believes this is merely an attempt at deception. STAVKA expects that, as Germany concentrates on northern and southeastern Europe, she will allow Britain a free hand in western and southern Europe.
Spies in the German OkW also report that the German high command is making ready two plans for possible major offensive operations against the Soviet Union once the war comes. The first is expected to be a single decisive push though the target is unknown and Moscow specifically named as being ‘too obvious.’ The aim must be to destroy the Red Army. The second possible major offensive has only been described as ‘incredibly daring;’ though it may be connected with landings in either the Black Sea or Archangelsk regions. Our spies estimate that the Germans plan to enlarge their own army to approximately 250 divisions of all kinds, of which some 50 will be armored or motorized divisions; the size of the British army is expected to be approximately 100 divisions, predominantly of infantry. It has thus been reported that Germany expects that England will provide a large portion of the infantry support throughout the war. Finally, spies have discovered that Germany plans to build an air force to perform close air support functions, though such air force development will take second-priority to expansion of the armored branch.
STAVKA has run war games concerning Germany’s push through to Ploesti and estimates that, at best, they may gain the oil wells in March, which allows time for a push through Bulgaria to Istanbul. This war game, however, assumes that Germany’s path is Austria-Hungary-Romania, that she does not use her entire army, and that Italy and Yugoslavia stand neutral in the wars against Austria and Hungary. However, this gives STAVKA a very specific and narrow time frame in which to gain Bessarabia, Istanbul and the western Black Sea coast.
STAVKA’s conclusions are that the Soviet Red Army requires constant attention for the next six years to ensure that it will be expanded to the proper size as advised above in Expansion of the Soviet Red Army to meet the challenges that it will face in the form of a greatly strengthened German-British alliance. The United Kingdom aims to expand its industry whereas Germany intends to gain more raw materials; both are preparing for a war against the Soviet Union. Thus, we must expand our own industrial and military capabilities to meet this new threat. Shown now are our suggestions for immediate military production and technology development.