Two Sicilies, AA Realm between past and future

Mmh, some answers are due, maybe update will come later today...

RGB: on Tunis, I casually took advantage of a momentary absence of independence guarantees on Tunisia. Now, after the hard-coded bankruptcy event (the previous bankruptcy wasn't hard-coded) Britain, France and Ottomans guarantee Tunis and I don't care to risk a war against UK for a single province. I can live with the other four. Regarding Lissa, maybe the next post will be the right one ...

Ahura Mazda: actually, I don't know. I suppose the unification has left me with a high badboy (that's why I suppose Austria attacked me in 1853) and I understand this could prevent alliances, which is no good.

Director: yes, the Austrians have been busy in Bohemia in the early stages but soon moved South lots of divisions. Then the scripted event of Sadowa will suddenly push Prussia out and the alliance with South-German minors will even bring it at war against me and France. Damn'd! You will see in the next update.

Quirinus308: your first questions maybe already answered in the post. Anyway, Austrian fleet is weak, minors are in and France as well, but really useless. Instead, the German minors and particularly Bavaria will be a pain for Prussia for a long time. Only that Sadowa event will save Bismarck! For your second question, Prussia started the war but I never saw the events for the Italian pact with Prussia, maybe because I was already at war against Tunisia and there is a trigger requesting Italy to be in peace. Infact, in 1867 Prussia will go out alone and I will continue my war for other 3 years.

stnylan: not the whole Dalmatia. I checked at only Zadar has Italian POPs, even if the Republic of Venice used to govern over the entire Croatian coast. As I want to stay enough in line with history, in case of victory I will ask only some Istrian towns and Zadar.

All: stay tuned for next update!

Bismarck's betrayal (from autumn 1866 to spring 1867)​

With the Alpine divisions completely stuck at Trento, significant strategic developments are limited to Adriatic coast: the unchallenged predominance of Galatro's Southern Fleet, which since autumn 1866 is strengthened with the arrival of the man-o-war Terribile with its corvettes attachment, allows an adequate and constant supply of fresh recruits, including the newly created guard division Perugia. Only once a lonely Austrian frigate, the Novara, dares to break the Italian blockade and is inevitably sunken by the Terribile on 12th December. Because of this clear advantage, both Garibaldi's army (operating in Istria and Slovenia) and the Zadar expeditionary force manage to reach important goals: Idrsko, Postojna and Lubljana are taken in the North, as well as Split, Senj, Dubrovnik and Karlovar in the South, before a cold winter – during which the Italian commands don't lose time and build a new small arms factory in Viterbo, develop point defence tactics, improve field training and exchange army professionalism concepts with the French allies in return for fire control systems given to their Navy – comes to freeze the frontline presumably until spring 1867.


When the Italians are on the verge of resuming military operations, the diplomatic scenario completely evolves. At the beginning of February 1867, Prussian General Count von Moltke orders to advance into Bohemia after having finally beaten the resistance of Hanover. Prussians and Austrians meet at Sadowa on 22nd February, where Franz Joseph's troops are soundly defeated with sevenfold losses than Willem I's. After the battle, Wien seeks an immediate armistice, which Berlin accepts on 24th with one of the most infamous settlements in the history of European diplomacy: in exchange for the Austrian acceptance of the Prussian supremacy in Germany, the Prussian annexation of all the Northern German principalities and the creation of an alliance of Prussia with the Southern German states, Bismarck rushes to protect Austria and declares war against Italy and France in the name of Pan-Germanism, apparently rebalancing the chances of victory between the two alliances.


The day after, the Prussian Navy (which is already in the Adriatic Sea under the command of Adalbert von Preussen) coordinates with the Austrian admiralty an attack against Galatro's Southern Fleet at Lissa in one of the biggest naval battles of the century, losing nine ships against zero Italian vessels. The steam powered commerce raider Troya (formerly entitled to Ferdinand II when it was the jewel of the Two Sicilian Navy) and the brand new man-o-war Terribile, in particular, gun down a number of enemy ships. Hundreds of German sailors die in the chilly waters in front of the Dalmatian island.


The victory at Lissa is not the only good piece of news. The combined march of the Istrian and Dalmatian armies close the "pincers" at Ogulin and Sisak in the first days of spring, completely severing Austria-Hungary from the sea (I deliberately call it Austria-Hungary now, because with the Ausgleich, the compromise signed in March by Franz Joseph and a Hungarian delegation, Wien finally concedes a status of parity to Budapest to calm down the rebellious Magyar nation).


Before resuming with the now Franco-Italian war against the whole German world, another small diplomatic/political digression: in October 1866, Pope Pius IX has sent an Encyclical Letter expressing that his sacred office obliges him to embrace all nations in an equal paternal love, but at the same time condemns the aggression against 'our generous son Franz Joseph'. A nasty gift to the Italian cause that has caused violent nationalistic protests and further deteriorated an already difficult relationship between Naples and Rome. By the way, the demonstrations against Pius IX are just one of the many hot episodes of an electoral campaign evidently dictated by the ongoing war and in some way constrained by a severe governmental censorship. During one of his few speeches, Depretis has been extremely clear on this point:

"None has the right to obstacle the war effort with futile or scared words. Austria will be hammered, one day or the other. But who instigates moral weakness, does not show support to our soldiers and misuse the word 'peace' is mindlessly helping the other side."

Taking in consideration as a whole the insulting Prussian betrayal, the die-hard nationalistic propaganda, the atmosphere of emergency and the recent victories at Lissa and in Dalmatia, the electoral game results heavily biased in favour of the ruling party. On 30th March 1867, Italians go to ballots with a single purpose in their mind: the victory against the Austro-Prussians. And the vote gives Depretis an astonishing success, with 82.35% of the Parliamentary seats, a manifest sign of unity against the common enemy. The incumbent government can now concentrate the strength coming from such colossal mandate in the war effort.

The real Battle of Lissa (see link to Wikipedia) was actually a national tragedy comparable to Sedan for French four years later: an Italian fleet twice bigger than the Austrian was severely defeated and lost its capital ships, including the "Re d'Italia". This battle is considered one of the most important between Trafalgar and WW1 and maybe one of the first with ironclads and armoured vessels.

A clear example of how disorganisation, incompetence and approximation can humble 2000 years of naval glory, from the Roman triremes to the Maritime Republics of Venice and Genoa. All this happening not fighting against a stronger Navy (as it could had been vs. France, UK or Netherlands) but against the fleet of an almost landlocked Empire...

Depretis (in this fictional history Italian Prime Minister) was actually Minister of Navy in 1866. A good revenge that in this tale he's guiding Italy to victory also on the seas...

The bureaucratic machine never stops, even in the severe conditions of the Third Independence War: thus, hereunder follow facts and figures from the 2nd general census made by the Federal Republic of Italy (held in December 1866).

• Population now almost reaches 42 million (10 million more than in 1856), placing Italy at 6th ranking among the most populated countries. The conquest of Tunisia has helped, as well as a general improvement of medicine, health conditions and limited immigration. The Italian ethnos still represents ca. 93% of total residents. Naples has almost one million inhabitants, but also Milan and Turin are catching up well, even if their population is still roughly a half of the capital's. The weight of farmers and labourers is gradually but steadily declining, being now at ca. 63%, 2 percentage points less than 10 years before.
  
  
  
  
  
• Thanks to the massive investments in public and private education implemented by the progressive Depretis cabinet, literacy has increased by 6 percentage points to 48%.
  
  
  

  
  Public writer: despite the educational investments,
  still 1 out of 2 Italians is illiterated​
  
  
• Economy: it's always challenging trying to match with European powerhouses' pace of industrialisation. Italy now has 18 factories(just to give you an example, Spain has 20 factories and Scandinavia 14), producing a wide range of goods. The completion of an extensive railroad system now helps the speediness of transportation and the overall productivity of primary and secondary sectors. The GDP is now slightly less than 92.000 £, almost 50% more than what used to be 10 years before, an evident sign of increased productivity. GDP per capita was about 2.000 £ per million ten years ago and 2.200 £ per million now. Expenses reach 93.000 £ due to the war effort, which temporarily corresponds to 42% of the State balance sheet.
  
  
  
  
  
• Overall, Italy ranks 7° among the Great Powers, being 4th in prestige, 10th in industry and 8th in military affairs.

Ok, some relief from war concerns - and some answers.

Eärendil, stnylan, Quirinus308: what's happened here is a combined effect of scripted events and alliance systems, that anyway has created a peculiar Prussian switch in the middle of the war. In VIP, after the victory on Austria, Prussia has a scripted event that brings alliance with South German states. As Bavaria & co. were helping Austria, Bismarck turned alliance and declared war on Italy and France. Anyway, the Prussian involvement will be short-lived... thus no "Three Hurras" event for now!

Director: I understand your point. The clearance of the Northern front allows Austria to concentrate its divisions on Italy. And France has to worry about Prussia in Alsace, even if until now it has not been very useful.

Two sad pieces of news reach the Italian people in three weeks: Head of State Carlo Poerio's death (28th April 1867) and Napoleon III's defection (20th May). A generalised grief surrounds Poerio's funerals in his birthplace Naples, where thousands give him the last homage. As prescribed by the Constitution, the Chairman of the Senate Gabrio Casati, succeeds Poerio for the remainder of the term, until the new Presidential elections scheduled in 1871.

From a practical point of view, much more upsetting for Depretis (after the successful elections he has been confirmed Prime Minister) is the French withdrawal. After a series of naval victories against the Austro-Hungarian fleet in the Adriatic Sea, Napoleon III decides to sue for peace with Emperor Franz Joseph. The reasons for this discreditable move could have been several: for sure, the French public opinion has never been particularly responsive to this war, particularly after Pius IX declaration of sympathy with Austria has alienated the support from the strong movement of ultramontains. In addition, Bismarck's switch of alliances has definitely destroyed Napoleon's hopes for a "sitting war", with those intimidating Prussian divisions ready on the Rhine. Thus, on 20th May Franz Joseph favourably accepts Napoleon request for an armistice. Having reached his goal of pushing France out of Third Independence War and breaking Austria-Hungary isolation, with the Rhine front now closed and honestly disinterested in the fate of the clash in Dalmatia, Bismarck drives out Prussia itself out of the war two months later.


Left alone against Austria-Hungary, Italy can still hope for a victorious end of the conflict. The stalemate lasts until summer 1867, when the "political" necessity of some land victories convinces Depretis of the flawlessness of a really foolish plan, the so-called "Hungarian diversion". Sponsored by Generals Omiccioli and La Marmora, the idea is simply a raid from the most advanced cavalry wing of the Italian Army into Hungary and then towards Wien: Omiccioli himself is given the control of the expedition, strong of 2 cavalry divisions (20.000 men). Initially, the enterprise seems to be even successful: after a long march in foreign land, on 8th September Omiccioli reaches and seize the Hungarian town of Sopron, only 90 km far from Wien. But in the following months, the madness of the plan becomes evident: isolated and in the middle of the distance between Wien and Budapest, settled in a town in the Magyar plains (not exactly the perfect configuration for defence) encircled by enemy troops, the "guys of Sopron" are doomed. In early November, after two months of tough resistance, the Austro-Hungarians concentrate on Sopron, rapidly crushing any defence. Both Italian divisions are completely crushed, 20.000 casualties and prisoners, including Omiccioli.

The shock for the bloodbath of Sopron is huge: numerically, the annihilated divisions represent one tenth of the standing army and were of the highest quality. Instead of a realistic course, the Italian government gives way to panic. The most advanced defence line in Croatia, at Sisak, is impulsively abandoned to reach the sea. Secret contacts with Wien through the British ambassador are shortly reactivated in order to achieve a quick armistice. An informal peace offer in exchange for Trento, Zadar and Idrsko is refused by Austria-Hungary, which now feels that the conflict situation could turn over.

Newspapers and members of the Parliamentary opposition start to inquire on the imprudent chain of decisions that has brought such disaster. Bettino Ricasoli (leader of the larger opposition party, the conservative Destra Permanente) personally denounces at the Chamber of Deputies the unfortunate choice made by Depretis and its ministers to push the Army for an unnecessary risk and then give consent to a mad plan. The disgrace of the request for an armistice is simply the last point of his speech, not even the most shocking. A Parliamentary vote of censure for the responsible persons passes with a strict majority and Depretis has to resign office after almost five uninterrupted years of power.


The following administration contains the well-known names of Rattazzi (Prime Minister) and Crispi (Public Works) but also other younger 'Mazzinians' like Giovanni Nicotera (Interior), Benedetto Cairoli (Foreign) and Nino Bixio (War). One of the new cabinet's first duties is a complete reshuffling of the high commands: La Marmora is sacked and replaced by the younger Raffaele Cadorna. Serving with Italian forces during the 1853-55 Useless War, Cadorna won distinction and awarded the rank of Colonel by the end of that war. Skilled in flexible firepower, his new strategic guidelines will soon gain high regard with a generalised increase in conscription, which will favour the capture of Bozen. Left inexplicably vulnerable by the Austro-Hungarians in early 1868, the reinforced Italian army advances quickly toward the town. When the advance guard approaches Bozen, it finds limited resistance and after few days of fighting the town falls to 11 Italian divisions pouring in the area to strengthen the newly acquired position (1st April 1868).


From now on this strange conflict, which features swift progresses followed by months of static consolidation and trench warfare, lacks of any significant action until autumn, when another successful Italian offensive seizes Zell am See (September) and Judenburg (November) before being stopped again by winter and enemy troops. After the winter pause, another Italian offensive from Udine towards Klagenfurt has soon to be withdrawn on 25th March 1869 because of the stiff resistance of Austro-Hungarian defenders. Tired with such slow and inconclusive progression, during the spring 1869 Raffaele Cadorna orders a stand-by in order to plan a large-scale and possibly decisive offensive. It would be focused on two fronts, Croatia (a mere diversion) and Austria (the primary campaign). General Belisari, the only one spared by the 1868 purge because of the previous merits gained in Tunisia and Dalmatia, is given command over the "Austrian" section of the front. The "1869 summer offensive" begins with the diversion attempt in Croatia, where advancing deep and fast the Italians take Zagreb in the second half of July. In the meantime, Belisari troops are marching on Salzburg, without encountering particular resistance.

The morale of Austro-Hungarian troops is visibly plummeting after three years of defeats: on 9th September 1869, Wien asks Italy for an armistice, promising Idrsko and Pola (Istria) plus the Slovenian provinces of Postojna and Lubljana, but not Trento, Bozen and Zadar, the main goals of the war. Thus, the peace offer is rejected and Belisari continues to advance. Salzburg falls in September, while the troops in Croatia, overwhelmed by the enemy, lose (again in the cursed town of Sopron) two divisions and abandon Zagreb in the following autumn. But the "Croatian" diversion has been very successful, because has distracted many forces from the main front, where Belisari can conduct with limited or no opposition his manoeuvre. The final push is really a hammer on Franz Joseph's head: profiting from a corridor free of enemy troops, Belisari advances well into Bohemia, with Praha falling in Italian hands in the dawn of 26th January 1870.


In Saint Wenceslaus' capital takes places the final stage of the Third Independence War, with Austro-Hungarian plenipotentiaries imploring Belisari for an armistice since the morning of 26th January. Franz Joseph has finally declared his availability to give up the territories requested by Italy during the failed negotiations after the 1869 summer offensive. Peace terms are negotiated all the day long by Foreign Minister Cairoli, Cadorna and Belisari with the Austro-Hungarian delegation led by Foreign Minister von Beust. At 5 p.m. of the same day the delegations reach the final agreement and order the cease-fire for the following midnight. The clauses of the Treaty of Praha impose to Austria-Hungary the cession of all its Italian-speaking provinces:

• in Tyrol, Trento and Bozen (where anyway the presence of German-speaking people is massive);
  
  
• in Istria, Idrsko and Pola (also inhabited by many Slavs – Slovenians in particular);
  
  
• in Dalmatia, Zadar (coastal town of ancient Italian settlement, but populated also by Croats).

With the Treaty of Praha, the liberation of Italy from foreign rule is done, even if this last war has been really demanding. Only Rome is missing to complete a great dream, but the survival of the temporal power of Pius IX is a matter that, for the time being, cannons cannot solve …


Sorry for the long long post, but the war didn't record too many events in three years. This part of the conflict has been really conducted with a sort of leap frogging strategy, waiting for good chances to spoil Austro-Hungarian momentary weaknesses and then consolidating the newly acquired lands. Thus, few really important events, no massive battles and slow progression. I hope this post can give anyway the sense of my actual difficulties...

RGB said:

Ah well, the Pope.

Mayhaps you'll have time to rid yourself of the anachronism that is the Papacy's temporal power, but right now I envision some rebuilding and some exciting colonial adventures, perhaps.

Click to expand...

RGB: it's exactly my feeling before I go and load the savegame

stnylan: I understand your delusion on Dalmatia, but I welcome this "partial" settlement because:

1) the war has been really tough and long and I'm feeling uncomfortable with those isolated divisions in Prague;

2) I want to demobilise because I'm losing ground in industrial development to mid-size countries as Spain, Netherlands and so on;

3) I want in some way to have "historically plausible" outcomes: real Italy in 1866 wouldn't have any possibility to gain a great victory against Austria-Hungary (and in fact, we lost both at Custoza and Lissa) and the European balance of power wouldn't have accepted a big loss of territory for Wien;

4) these borders almost perfectly match with those reached after WWI, after 50 years and 1 million more casualties. They fit also with the borders of Italian-speaking people in the game (maybe Bozen and Zadar are even not fit, because Italian speakers are minoritarian there).

I can consider myself satisfied with these gains for now, but if A-H will provoke me in the future, I will ask more. Maybe freeing Croatia and making it a loyal satellite of Italy, starting an imperialistic move into Balkans in substitution of a declining A-H.

Italy and the Franco-Prussian War​

Even if both France and Prussia had withdrawn from the armed conflict years before, their mutual relation has always remained particularly tense. Already in 1869 the Luxembourg crisis (Napoleon III was on the verge of purchasing the Grand Duchy from Netherlands when Prussia threatened war) was diplomatically settled when the contenders were rattling their sabres. Unfortunately, another tricky event (the Spanish succession crisis) precipitates France and Prussia into an open conflict two years later, few months after the end of the Third Independence War. Being without King since the revolution of September 1868, the Spaniards offer the throne to a member of the Hohenzollern family (a cousin of King Willem I of Prussia). Fearing encirclement, similar to the one suffered by France after Charles V's enthronisation, Napoleon III is determined to stand up the Prussian expansionism and declares war on 2nd June 1870.

Few moves in human history have been so imprudent as this, because Napoleon III finds himself completely isolated and unprepared: Austria has just been smashed during the Third Independence War, Italy itself has come out from four years of continuous warfare with the Army in a deplorable situation, Russia and Britain take a neutral attitude, paradoxically the European public opinion feels France to be the aggressor. The French standing army is bigger but ruined by poor administration and planning, whereas the Prussian is lighter, but faster and directed by great generals. Furthermore, the secret alliance pacts signed among Prussia, Baden and Wurttemberg bring in two smaller but well-coordinated armies against France.


Thus, Rattazzi has to honour the alliance with France four months after the Treaty of Praha, and he does. But he knows also how the Italian army is not ready for war after the costly hostilities against Austria-Hungary: 11 standing divisions (down from 19 in 1866) plus 16 divisions collectable from reservists just returned at home, all of them depleted and unarmed. The situation has been so unbearable that one of the cabinet's first deeds after the peace treaty was the enrolment of two cavalry divisions to replace those destroyed at Sopron and additional infantry divisions to look after the seditious German minority in South Tyrol. Thus, Italian commitment to the Franco-Prussian War is less than negligible: one cavalry division strong of 10.000 men and nothing more. At least, the awareness of the indispensable military use of railways for troops' transportation is a positive outcome of Italian involvement …


Napoleon III's conduction of war is a disaster: with so many troops statically holding on the Rhine watercourse at Strasbourg, when the Prussians finally drive into France from North find only limited opposition and repeatedly defeat Napoleon III's soldiers at Metz, Verdun and Nancy. In February 1871, a subsequent French counteroffensive aiming at re-conquering Metz employs also the Italian regular expeditionary force that is completely lost on the battlefield (instead, Giuseppe Garibaldi will lead a volunteer regiment – the Army of the Vosges – which the Prussians will never defeat during the war [RH]).


From Metz onward, it's a descent to hell for Napoleon III: after having dismissed his inept generals, he assumes the chief command without changing the course of events. Battle after battle, the Prussian war machine is now at the gates of Paris. In the meantime, in Italy public demonstration against this unpopular war intensify in number and frequency and PM Rattazzi and Foreign Minister Cairoli feel more and more uncomfortable about Italian involvement with such a lame duck like Napoleon III, particularly in consideration of approaching Parliamentary elections (scheduled in December 1871). Unfortunately, Cairoli's tests with Bismarck for an amiable separate peace remain unsuccessful. Second half of 1871 is even worse: during a skirmish, Napoleon III is captured by the Prussians. Paris, subject to siege and bombardment, resists for months – and will never be actually occupied by Willem I – before France is forced to capitulate on 15th February 1872. Bismarck is particularly clement with Napoleon III, asking only Metz (obviously, the peace treaty includes also Italy).


Yet, territorial changes are not the main aftermath of this landmark war: with two victories against Austria and France in rapid succession, Prussia has definitely affirmed its central role in the European balance of powers [just to be clear, Prussia vastly won the war but "Three Hurrahs" didn't fire because they never took Paris]. On the other side, the defeat is a blow to Napoleon III in internal affairs: humbled and de-legitimated, he governs among increasing tension and hatred for a few months, finally calling for general elections in 1873. A constitutional monarchy form of government is re-established and two competing claimants confront during the electoral campaign: the Legitimists (conservative and pro-Bourbon dynasty) and the Orleanists (more liberal supporters of the heir of Louis Philippe). Finally, the latter faction wins a higher popular consent and the Orleanist Count of Paris assumes the title of King Philip VII.