Very interesting stuff. The challenge here is clearly the trade off between colonizing like mad to get more manpower, and starting the BB wars early enough to be able to avoid being steamrollered.
I had a couple of questions though. It looks like you did not colonize Pastaza beyond population 1,000. This means that it will take about 400 years to hit a population of 20,000 which would give more manpower. Sending an additional 10 colonists (which would cost what, 700 d), would mean that you'd get the manpower sometime in the 18th century I guess, and getting it to population 4,000 (which would cost a lot - 2500 d or something?) would mean you could get the extra manpower in the early 17th century. OK it's a lot of money for one extra point of manpower, but presumably you have lots of cash. Why did you decide to leave it at 1,000?
Second is it possible for Chimu to go less land at first (to get more colonists) and move to full land in time for BB wars? Manpower being key, faster colonization would clearly help. I guess it depends on how long you can spend between getting maps and going BB.
Third, my experience is that taking out Andalucia and Toledo usually curtails Spanish colonization. While I can see the advantages of having Andalucia as a staging area, and of having the COT, I would be worried that the reduced Spanish colonization would make getting manpower much harder than it might be otherwise. Did you think about taking Galicia and Asturias (for example) instead of Andalucia and Toledo?
Sorry about all the kibbitzing - I've no right to complain as I would never try this, but I am interested in how you planned this out.