The Butterfly Effect: A British AAR

Arilou - Excellent.

Bafflegab - It is surprising how much this monster has grown, 50 posts and a 1000 views was nearer my original expectations!

Europe is indeed in turmoil, I felt it was most unfair that some people got off lightly. Far better to spread it around.

Lord Strange - Glad my hard work is paying off! (In truth I'd do it anyway, but far better to be appreciated for it as well)

C&D - Well Free Trade when no-one else is doing it certainly can be messy. Especially when you're keeping your currency artificially high.

As to Belgium I agree completely, I did read an article a while ago postulating there were very few actual Belgians, instead mostly Walloons and Flemings who happened to have passports with that nationality on it. Now that's probably an over-exaggeration, but there's probably a grain of truth in it.

Sir Humphrey - Astute as ever Sir H. Ireland is indeed heading for trouble, historically the mid-1930s were horrific in Ireland even with the Coal-Cattle Pact in place (the actual trade war didn't end till 1938 when the Irish paid up the annuities in a lump sum but got the treaty ports back).

In this timeline de Valera has taken that lifeline away, without it the farming industry is going to vanish - Britain was responsible for over 90% of all Irish trade before the tariffs went up, that just can't be quickly replaced. With mass unemployment and the economy decimated it's ripe for extremist, and there's no shortage of interesting groups.

Faeelin - As I understand it France was fairly committed to an intact Belgium, while the Flemish fascists wanted cession (a greater Holland technically). That's a fairly unresolvable difference which isn't going to promote good feeling.

On a related point as AF says much of the military was indeed Francophobic but not fascist.

Ignoring all that I didn't actually mean to imply the fascist parties were Franco-phobic, just that they co-operated with the parts of the military that were to end the alliance with France. Clearly I must tighten up my phrasing.

Atlantic Friend - You do have to admire such epic mistakes, to get something wrong is one thing. To get it so wrong that you make it significantly harder to correct your own error takes some doing.

C&D - The explanation I heard was that the Belgian military didn't rate the 'untested' Dutch army (as they hadn't fought in the Great War) so wouldn't work with such 'amateurs'.

See my reply to AF for my thoughts on that decision.

yourworstnightm - When you put it that way I could have just written 'As usual' for most of those countries and it would convey the same general idea.

Vann the Red - Substantial but satisfying I hope. Your hunch is correct thus far, all the European fascists movements are somewhat more influential than TTL. Of course in many cases that's starting from a very low base so don't expect revolution, equally only economic recovery is going to kill them off (massive generalisation there I accept) and that isn't on the cards either.

C&D - All good points and he's not going to storm to power in the 1937 elections. That said unless things pick up they will increase their share of the vote - bad times are always good for extremists.

C&D - The two halves of the country are very different certainly, Wallonia was the industrial heartland (coal, iron and steel) while Flanders was heavily centred on Antwerp and surrounds (shipping, trade, diamonds, finance). Hence the difference in union attitudes, view on the role of the state, outlook on the world, etc.

That difference has shaped much of the politics and economics of the country, almost certainly serving to accentuate cultural differences, it's a sweeping generalisation but I understand it to be broadly true. Certainly the Walloons were traditionally richer until the late 1950s/60s when heavy industry went into decline and the Flemish overtook them. The 1930s were when that gap first started to narrow, sending the signal that the Wallonian domination was not cast in stone, obviously that had political impacts.

Sir Humphrey - A distinct possibility, it hits several of the big buttons of Irish politics of the time. But never forget there is the one more easy pressure point - Northern Ireland and bashing the Brits. The actual cause may be de Valera's pride but putting part of the blame on the UK wouldn't be hard, not necessarily wise in the long term though. Ireland at the time did utterly depend economically (and, by their own admission, militarily) on the UK, actually angering, as opposed to annoying, Britain is not a smart move.

Carlstadt Boy - I too like a nice naval based campaign in some of the further flung parts of the world. That said my current policy is just to see where everything takes me, I try and avoid 'forcing' the story in one direction so I'm still not sure how it will turn out in the end.

As for Spain, I've got it scheduled for a look in about half a dozen updates time - finish the rest of the world summer updates, a few on the situation in the UK economy, politics and military then off to Spain for a war update. Probably early 2009 judging by my usual update speed!

TheHyphenated1 - Thank you sir, most kind. I promise I will get through your own tome soon and comment (no point commenting on old posts I always feel). Time, if only I had more time!

trekaddict said:

Top Gear Series 11, Episode 6, at around 0:36:33, and it was in fact "Captain Slow" and not Clarkson, but I see your point.

Click to expand...

I am impressed. Slightly scared obviously but also impressed.

Allenby - It had to happen sometime, I'm just tapping into the deep vein of suppressed Belgophile interest on these forums.

Lord Strange - I believe the current difference resolution venue in this timeline is the Spanish Monarchist high command.

Right next update could be done tonight (worst case tomorrow). Prepare for pride, poverty, pragmatism and other-things-beginning-with-P as we take a trip into the Dark Continent....

trekaddict said:

No need to be scared, I happen to have an erm... videocapture so to speak of that Episode, so I simply looked it up.

Click to expand...

That is a relief I must say.

Just looking for a few decent piccies and sorting out a few unimportant details that I doubt anyone will notice (but are important to me).

Finally done! This next update neatly demonstrates my two greatest flaws - being unable to resist putting in a cool detail and worrying about details no-one would care about. Specifically this time it's Liberia, originally a throw away couple of lines in the first draft, I checked a few facts, discovered some great facts and expanded that section to fit them in. But then I had to check that fitted with what was going on historically (to avoid being caught out by all my expert Liberia readers) so had to redraft it.

Suddenly I've turned two sentences into two paragraphs and started an entire sub plot running. But it is, I think, quite an interesting sub plot and one I can weave into the current ones so I'm quite proud of it.

Anyway enough self indulgent waffle - update!