The Butterfly Effect: A British AAR

[coz1]

Churchill certainly knew how to get things done. I'd feel confident with his choices.

[Vann the Red]

El Pip,

I've enjoyed your insightful commentaries on the AARs of others for some time now, so I was delighted to see that you'd started one of your own. Please do continue.

Vann

[El Pip]

Right I will get this damnedable mod done and start the game proper. This weekend should see it finished, provided I don't get any more ideas... Perhaps I should have stuck with vanilla, hey ho.

lifeless I wouldn't get any Zionist hopes up, Hore-Belishia is about to be shown how 'powerfull' he truly is in this administration.

therev This is the Empire's greatest living hero, I'm sure he'll be up to the challenge.

Sir Humphrey You do have to pay lip service to a National Government, and the Nat Libs did get more seats they can't be ignored. Well not all the time.

coz1 It's a strong team and it's only going to get stronger. Probably not until the next update though.

Vann the Red Thank you for that. I do hope you apreciate the rest of the AAR.

On which note the next update should be this eveningish. Hopefully.

[VILenin]

I'm enjoying this so far, El Pip. You've had some interesting events, especially the election results. Though I hate to see Roosevelt literally brought down by a carpet. Good job on the AAR.

[El Pip]

Chapter VII: Guns, Butter or Battleships.

For many the British 1936 re-armament plan is considered of only limited academic interest. The five year plan, which attempted to map defence expenditure until 1941, was soon overtaken by events in Abyssinia and the fallout from the second London naval disarmament conference. While the plan was heavily revised in light of following events it is still of interest as it provides a valuable insight into British Government thinking at the time.

The naval element of the plan was centered around HMS Ark Royal which had been laid down the previous September. Classified as 'replacement tonnage' for earlier experimental carriers she was treaty compliant, provided the earlier carriers were indeed scrapped. Interestingly the plan made no mention of which carrier would be de-comissioned, leading some to suspect the Admiralty never intended to do so.

HMS Ark Royal, a fine ship with an appalling planned air wing.

The plan also returned control of naval aviation to the Admiralty and made new carrier aircraft the top naval research priority. These two decisions, which had been championed by the First Sea Lord Keyes in parliment, along with the priority given Ark Royal's construction set the tone for British Naval policy.

That, along with two new destroyer flotillas to replace old tonnage, was the limit of the Royal Navy's gains under the plan. The strength of the British fleet in comparison to it's rivals made arguing for additional resources hard, although the expansion of the Japanese fleet was noted as a potential cause for concern. In general however the collapse of the US economy and the general adherence by the great powers to the naval arms control treaties had preserved Britain's position as the pre-eminent naval power. The plan made clear that there were other areas of defence that were in more urgent need of re-equipping and expansion. The Royal Navy was a victim of their own strength and success.

A comparison of the world's navies in 1936, proving that Britannia still ruled the waves.

Of the three services it was the British Army that stood to gain the most under the plan. Three new division were to be raised from existing cadres and territoral units, with additional brigades to be added later as funding allowed.

The command of the army was also reorganised, Sir Cyril Deverell was appointed as Chief of the Imperial General Staff while General John Gort was sent to head up the Imperial Defence College. It was Gort's appointment that was to have the biggest impact, as head of the IDC he was responsible for the training of the next generation of officers for the British Army.

The insignia of two of the 'new' divisions, the 4th and the 9th. The 9th 'Scottish' was a great war formation, while the 4th traced it's roots back to the Peninsula War.

The Royal Air Force on the surface gained little, indeed the RAF had to give up control of the Naval Air Branch to the Admiralty. The lack of headline making new units masked the work going on behind the scenes; Air Marshall Hugh Dowding had been promoted from Fighter Command to head the entire RAF.

Dowdings appointment was in line with the priority for re-equipping the force, the programme was designed on a "Fighters first" rule, making the introduction of the Hurricane the top priority. The RAF was also responsible for the full implementation of the expanded 'Dowding System' for integrated air defence.

The Hawker Hurricane, the much needed replacement for the obselete Gloster Gladiator.

The plan was criticised at the time for not being ambitious enough and for the relatively low priority given the Royal Navy. The second criticism is answered by the looming London Naval conference. The conference, which had been delayed from December due to the British elections, would set naval arms limitations for the next five years and so plans for naval re-armament was put on hold until after the conference. Work on Ark Royal only continued as her keel had already been laid and the government would never agree to any treaty that required her scrapping or any reduction in existing capital ships.

The small scale of the scheme has a more complex explanation, although the main reason was undoubtedly the weakness of the economy. With the recovery still patchy overburdening the economy with wholesale re-armament risked a US style downwards spiral deeper into depression. The other key factor was political in nature, it was known that while the people wanted re-armament they wanted jobs and food on the table more. Thus social and industrial programmes were also priorities and placed further demands on streched resources.

It was against the backdrop of naval uncertainty and rising tensions in the Mediterranean and with very limited resources that the plan was forged. In light of the events that followed we should not be surprised it was heavily revised, we should be amazed that any elements survived.

The 1936 re-armament plan. An attempt to do everything with almost nothing.

Up next: An update! And possibly Mussolini's reply which I've been promising for quite some time now.

[lifeless]

excellent! hopefully, it wont get sunk by uboats!

[blysas]

Dammit, update now, we have been waiting for a long time, update now

[Pureone.]

Il Duce sure takes his time replying

Great AAR, subscribed!

Are there any other "small things" which well find out about, say a flight of stairs that Stalin fell down in 21'?

[El Pip]

I have people heckling me for late updates, I'm so proud! I feel I've really arrived as an AAR author now. *sniff* ()

OK if I haven't mentioned a country it's probably the same, unless I suddenly change plans. As I want some consistency I'm not going to go back and edit posts, thus I'm trying to keep options open by not mentioning events I don't have too.

Updatery should arrive tonight, but I do find this trickier to write than Fjords, the pressure of believability and the research involved eat up time.

However you know Italian bureacray, it doesn't move quickly so Ill Duce could still be delayed, but I hope not.

[El Pip]

Chapter VIII: Treaties and Tantrums.

At first look the Second London Naval Disarmament Conference appears to be the most disastrous diplomatic event of the 1930s. There was no new treaty agreed, indeed the existing treaty was declared null and void a year early. Two of the previous signatories, Italy and Japan, withdrew before the talks even properly started and the one nation that most wanted to be there, Germany, was barred as her naval limits were set by Versailles.

Yet such a simplistic analysis misses the behind the scenes negotiations and back room deals that would later shape events across the globe. The most important of which was undoubtedly the talks held between Japanese and British admirals that would pepare the ground for higher level talks with far reaching consequences.

Vice Admiral Yamamoto, Japan's naval representative at the conference

The conference did not have an auspicious start, having been delayed by the British General election and opening during rising tensions between Italy and Britain over Abyssinia. The mood did not improve after the first session which indicated the dividing line between the parties, the French and Americans who could not afford a naval arms race and the Italians and Japanese who considered the treaty restrictive to their imperial ambitions.

The British sided with the Franco-American position, naval re-armament would take resources that could be better used for re-equipping and expanding the RAF and army. The Royal Navy had unquestionable naval supremacy and the easiest way to maintain that was to get other navies to voluntarily limit their tonnages.

Hirota Koki, the Japanese foreign minister and nominal head of that country's delegation.

The conference did not last long, dissolving after the second day with the Japanese delegation unwilling to accept playing second fiddle to any Pacific navy. The Italians seized this opportunity to also walk out, stating that their desire to 'Bring the Mediterranean completely into the Italian sphere of influence' would require a larger fleet than the treaty limits.

Despite the very public disagreements grabbing the headlines it was the informal and off the record meetings between Sir Roger Keyes and Admiral Yamamoto that would be the conferences lasting legacy. The rapport between the two men was based on their shared views on naval aviation and was helped no end by Keyes respect for Japan which he had developed during the Boxer Rebellion. Their frequent discussions over the advances in carrier techniques and tactics since the Sempill Mission to Japan in 1921 were possibly the most productive talks of the entire conference.

As both France and the US had neither the resources nor the inclination to expand and modernise their fleets the British quitely wound up the conference. While a ground sounding proclamation in favour of naval disarmament was issued by the remaining delegates, no actual limits of any kind were imposed. Indeed the existing treaty, due to run until 1937, was also subtly torn up, although this was hushed up as much as possible.

This can be seen as the first key act of British re-armament; by not even paying lip service to the treatys the British sent a strong message about their intentions to face up to foreign threats. The failure to even sign a face saving treaty showed a unilateralism that harked back to an older form of British diplomacy. It was not in Britain's interests to shackle her own re-armament while her main naval rivals were free to act, so Britain would not sign.

Galeazzo Ciano, Italian foreign minister and head of the delegation to the conference.

The other reason the talks are often overlooked is their proximity to the Ciano Statement; the announcement of the Il Duce Dottrina or, as it more commonly known, the Mussolini Doctrine. This statement, while little more than a combination of ideas expressed earlier in a more bombastic fashion, was given extra emphasis by Italian actions during the conference. The doctrine boiled down to claiming the Mediterranean as an Italian Lake and a statement that Italian shipping would be free to travel wheresoever it wished in the region without hinderance.

The statement also served as a clear reply to Churchill's telegram, the Italian government would not accept any foreign interference in it's sphere of influence. And Il Duce Dottrina had just extended that sphere to the whole Mediterranean and the Red Sea, including the Suez canal....


Up next: How will Churchill respone to Il Duce's challenge? Will the re-armament plan have to be modified? Are the Italians bluffing? All these question could be answered next time!

[coz1]

I suspect Il Duce will be in for a rude awakening. However, the economy is a major limiting factor for the Brits. Can they keep up and do what they must while also keeping the country on sound footing? A tough juggling act.

[El Pip]

Chapter IX: A delayed Doctor.

The British Government's response to the Il Duce Dottrina was a matter of considerable debate at the highest level. While Churchill believed he had a mandate to decisvely intervene in Abyssinia in order to end the horrors and depravations taking place the cabinet was not united in this view. The main opposition came from those who maintained that affairs in East Africa were not worth risking a conflict with Italy.

This opposition group began to naturally rally around Lord Halifax, who had been retained as President of the Education Board. While Halfax's supporters were few, their numbers swelled as Halifax became the focus of the anti-war elements in the Conservative and National Liberal parties. Some have viewed Churchill's decision to retain Halifax in the cabinet as a mistake for precisely this reason, it is argued that appointing a more junior MP with similar views to Churchill would not have provide his opponents with a figurehead and focus.

Viscount Halifax, the leading light of the 'Peace with honour' movement.

This argument is not without merit, but it does not allow for the political reality. While the election had shown that appeasement was not popular in the country, that did not mean there wasn't a substantial peace lobby. The so called 'Peace with honour' movement had significant support for their vauge and seemingly contradictory platform.

Those who support the view that Lord Halifax should have been replaced also forget the wider picture. Halifax was an experience and competent minister who had done excellent work at the Education Board, work that still needed to be done whatever the international situation of the time.

Despite Halifax's opposition the decision was never in doubt, Churchill was going to re-state his earlier private telegram publicly. There would also be a statement that unless hostilities in East Africa ceased within the week the Suez Canal would be shut to all Italian flagged shipping. What Halifax and his supporters did achieve was a delay in this announcement, a delay that would be extended by events elsewhere.

Lord Dawson, King George V's household doctor who was delayed travelling to Sandringham.

It was during the final cabinet debate on the night of the 19th that news reached Churchill that the King was gravely ill at Sandringham House. This was compounded that his personal doctor, Baron Dawson, had been delayed and would not reach the king until the following day. The implication was clear, the King's chances of surviving the night were not good.

Up Next: The preparations that the Royal Navy and other armed services are making. Finishing off the economic update from earlier and hopefully the big question answered: will the King survive the night?

[coz1]

Well, I was about to start singing, Will you come to Abyssinia, Will you come... but it seems that may not be where the next move ends up being. And Eddie is taken down by illness? Now that's a twist.

[El Pip]

Chapter X: Carrier Diplomacy.

The phrase 'Carrier Diplomacy' was coined, as one might expect, by Sir Roger Keyes during the Abyssinian crisis. The phrase reveals the two seemingly contradictory sides of the First Sea Lord's personality. On the one hand the policy of Gunboat Diplomacy was fresh from the Victorian old school approach to foreign policy. The other side is the reference to the aircraft carrier what at the time was on the cutting edge of naval warfare theory, an untested but highly promising weapon of war.

It was to be this application of new technology and ideas to proven theories that would be the hallmark of Keyes' time at the Admiralty. Deploying a line of battleships to cruise along the Italian coast would have been classic gunboat diplomacy, but very risky and leave the fleet compromised if the Italian Navy reacted. Sending three extra aircraft carriers through the Mediterranean was a similarly potent show of force, but far less ostenatious. It also highlighted to the Italians high command their own lack of aircraft carriers and technological disadvantage.

Keyes and Churchill, discussing naval preparations during the Abyssinian crisis

As Keyes said "To threaten someone with a battleship you have to ram it down their throats, even then some will still believe that their own ships can sink it. But if you sit your carriers a hundred miles of their coast you will not only threaten, you will intimdate. The enemy will start worrying how they will ever get close enough to the carriers to get a shot in, let alone sink them."

The grand aim of Carrier Diplomacy was to force the Italians into backing down under the threat of British naval supermacy. Aside from playing to the British Empire's biggest strength, the Royal Navy, it was hoped this plan would also serve as a more general reminder of the teeth the Imperial lion retained. As such the Admiralty coreographed a series of redployments and rotations that would fill the Mediterranean with British warships.

The Abyssinian crisis naval deployment plan, at it's peak more capital ships were deployed to the Mediterranean than the Home Fleet.

At the heart of the plan were the units based out of Alexandria, the two Courageous class carriers and the five Queen Elizabeth battleships. These were split into two seperate forces, the battleship remained as the core Mediterranean Fleet while the carriers formed the independentForce B.

At Gibralta the Admiralty formed up Force H based around Hood, Renown and Repulse while Malta was the homeport of the Kent class heavy cruisers of Force K.

The final touch was the rotation of China Station's carrier force, this would have HMS Eagle returning to the British Isles from the east while HMS Argus and Hermes transited from the west. In all five fleet carriers, six battleships, three battlecruisers and innumerable cruisers and destroyers would be in or around the Mediterranean as the crisis unfolded. The Admiralty believed that this show of strength would show Britain was serious in her demands.

HMS Eagle, one of the carriers redeployed through the Mediterranean during the crisis.

Thus it is clear the planning and preparations of the Royal Navy cannot be faulted, the Italian fleet would be outnumbered over three to one in capital ships. The failure of Carrier Diplomacy must therefore be laid elsewhere.

It is tempting to lay the blame on the French government, they refused to support the British stand against Italian aggression. Indeed questions were raised about Britains right to close the canal, which was run by a majority owned French company. French holdings in East Africa were minimal and the focus of French millitary thinking at the time was Germany not Italy.

While the French must shoulder some of the blame, so must the previous British government under Stanley Baldwin. Their foreign policy had created the impression that Britain no longer had the resolve and nerve for confrontation and would limit herself to diplomatic responses to agression. By their actions they had created the impression that the Imperial Lion had lost her teeth and that the sun was finally setting on the British Empire.

Against such a background it would be easy for Mussolini to believe that the show of force was little more than a bluff and that the British would back down under pressure. Mussolini would persist with this mistaken, if understandable, assumption right up until the Royal Navy taught the Regia Marina a comprehensive, if expensive, lesson about the true value of modern technology and new ideas.


Up Next: The home front and Beaverbrooks master plan.

[Vann the Red]

Very nice series of updates, EP! Greatly enjoyed and looking forward to learning how this earlier start of hostilities, if tempers are not governed, affects the wider world.

Vann

[therev]

Good update - enjoyed it and am waiting for more!

[coz1]

Were I the Duce, I might begin thinking about reseacrhing and building some subs too. He may have won this round (or it seems like it at least) but that won't last.

[lifeless]

great update!

[El Pip]

Chapter XI: Of War and Peace.

Despite Churchill, John Simon, Austen Chamberlain and the other high profile members of the government focusing on the deteriorating international situation the work of government had to go on. The dominant domestic issues were the great depression and re-armament, a combination which seemed perfect. The depression had hit the industrial north of the country the hardest and it would be those same heavy industries that would be needed for re-armament.

Sadly such thinking was a oversimplification and missed several large problems. British Industry was not prepared or equiped for re-armament and would take several months to gear up to full production, until when employment levels would not rise. There was also the problem of the many workers not employed in armament related industries and how to help them. Finally there was cost, re-armament was expensive and the extra tax burden could damage the slight recovery which had begun in 1934.

The man tasked with overcoming these problems, Lord Beaverbrook at the Ministry of Production and Development, approached the problem by treating the British economy as just a very large company. To this end he determined what was need was some new ideas, as the old plans had not done much to lift the depression.

John Maynard Kenyes, Baron of Tilton and one of the most influential economists to ever live.

Beaverbrooks search for the right man lead him to John Keynes, in particular his "General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money". Baron Keynes was a firm liberal, when he had been enobled he had chosen to sit on the Liberal benches in the House of Lords and was on good terms with leading National Liberals in government. Using these connections, and the force of his own personality, Beaverbrook was able to convince Keynes to work with his department on a new economic policy for the country.

The eventual plan called for a gradual build in the pace of re-armament and a series of large, but short term, public works. The idea was for the latter to provide employment and bridge the gap until the former was up to full speed. This new more interventionist approach would come to be called Keynesian economics and would be the foundation of British economic policy for decades to come.

While these policies would take considerable time to have tangible benefits, the effect on the public was far faster. As the plans for the constructions were published and people saw the surveyors out on site marking out foundations it was obvious that this plan would happen and that there would be jobs.

King George V, narrowly survived the night at Sandringham.

The public mood was also lifted by the news that the King had survived a series of bronchitis attacks and was being nursed back to health by his beloved wife, Queen Mary. King George's personal doctor is said to have been astonished that he made it through such severe attacks, attributing it to the King's sense of duty and his unwillingness to 'abandon' the Empire during a crisis.


Up Next: Il Duce decides if Italy will back down or act over Abyssinia and the Suez Canal.

[coz1]

That certainly is a bonus to have a King so dedicated. Surely his hope for the future is what helped him get well. And it sounds as is the economy might be starting to get on track again. Also a bonus as long as it lasts.