The Butterfly Effect: A British AAR

Chapter XXXV: The Candle That Burns Twice As Bright.​

Of the events of the 24th of March the most commonly known is the death of King George V, the well loved and respected monarch passing away in the early hours. While far from unexpected, the King had been unwell for months and had been deteriorating rapidly, the news still came as a shock to both the country and the government. While generally credited as being the first step towards the crisis that would engulf the country there was another, earlier, claimant on that title that had climaxed in the hours before the King's sad demise.

Churchill's appointment as Prime Minister, and subsequent gutting of the cabinet, had left a generation of MPs jobless and with very poor future prospects. Too old and experienced for junior ministerships and not considered for cabinet roles due to being "tainted" by appeasement these malcontents rapidly coalesced around the equally disgruntled Stanley Baldwin. While the emphasis on new blood, or those with strong anti-appeasement credentials, played well with the general public Churchill had ignored the effect it had on his own party. Believing that the anti-war, but controllable, Lord Halifax was enough of a sop to pacifist opinion, and distracted by more pressing international events, there had been little attempt to smooth ruffled feathers or tend to battered egos.


The gratitude among the discarded members that they had kept their seats and were still in government soon evaporated leaving behind resentment at what they perceived as their poor treatment. While none would claim their expulsion from office had been a surprise there had been an expectation they would be 'rehabilitated', after a suitable period on the backbenches, and gently eased back into government. Baldwin in particular had believed he would retain at least some of his influence, possibly even reprising his role as Lord President of the Council, lowering his profile but keeping him close to the centre of power. To be left out in the cold without the promise of future rehabilitation and redemption turned many senior MPs in the party against Churchill. This oversight was undoubtedly a serious mistake, one of the three that allowed the crisis to foment.

What the group circling the new cabinet had lacked was an issue, some event he had mishandled that could serve as a rallying call to unite his various opponents against him. The concern in the country surrounding Mrs Simpson, while far from the most serious issue facing the country, was however almost perfect from Baldwin's point of view. The core issues were simple and easy to communicate, public opinion was solidly against her and crucially Churchill had not provided strong leadership on the issue, rarely involving himself beyond the bare minimum. Having spent years ploughing a lonely and unpopular furrow on re-armament there is little doubt Churchill had forgotten the vital importance of public opinion to a government, the issue was concerning the general populace and as Prime Minister he needed to be seen to be doing something about it. Instead the focus of the government remained on the foreign policy concerns; The ongoing war with Italy, the Spanish Question and the alarming rumblings coming from Greece. This attention to 'big picture' matters over domestic may well have been the best long term choice of action but was not a good survival tactic in Westminster politics and was the second big mistake in the run up to the crisis.

Of Churchill's mistakes it is his third, his genuine believe that politics would be put aside and that his rivals would bide their time until the war was over, that is most curious. Naivety had not been a feature of his character when out of office, yet how else to describe placing such trust in ruthless political operators such as Stanley Baldwin. The answer is probably that Churchill could not conceive of anyone coolly and deliberately putting their own self interest before that of the country. Whatever the reason the cumulative errors came together in the days following King George V's death and his state funeral.


Westminster legend has it that the vote of confidence in Churchill was called before the last royal mourner had left St George's chapel. Certainly the gap was the bare minimum protocol and respect allowed, Baldwin having convinced the necessary 15% of MPs to petition Sir Hugh O'Neill and the 1922 Committee to call a vote of confidence in Churchill's leadership of the party. While the letters almost uniformly expressed concern about Churchill's lack of leadership over the new King's choice of consort, and there were many for whom that was the main issue, there is little doubt the 'Mrs Simpson Crisis' was also a general banner for all those dissatisfied with Churchill. Silently backing the malcontents were many senior figures ranging from those discarded for appeasement like Samuel Hoare through Lord Halifax's pacifists worried about the war to the group clustered around Neville Chamberlain angry at the fiscal irresponsibility of re-armament and upsetting the European balance of power.

Churchill's reaction to the rumours and reports from the chief whip was statesman like, if politically foolish. Instead of stalking the corridors of Westminster, offering preference to supporters and threatening the outer darkness to those who voted against him he ignored the contest and continued working towards a suitable peace deal with Italy and working out what to do with Spain. When pressed by concerned colleagues to take the contest seriously he is reputed to have replied "My honourable colleagues will judge me on my actions, not whether I speak to them in a corridor, and on that count I have no doubts to their verdict."

If the party did judge him on his actions, then they must not have liked them for on the afternoon of the 2nd of April Sir Hugh O'Neill announced that Winston Churchill had lost the vote of confidence and was no longer leader of the Conservative Party.