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The Butterfly Effect: A British AAR

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Wow, ask for an update and it happens... things really HAVE changed around here.

Then again, a supurb update with not enough tank porn... some things have stayed the same too! :)

I'm banking on Eden compromising by banning British convoys from the Med. A lose-lose at home and internationally but enough of a compromise to stop anything too bad happening while he tries to find a way out...

On the escalation of arms to the region...

I get the impression that the French can't or won't keep up production to cover losses in the H35's and from your opinion of French industrial capacity and the imminent arrival of 6 pdr's that situation is likely to get worse...

I'm wondering what the Czech tank industries are doing to get involved. They have designs that would be of interest to the Republicans and good contacts through the French. Your thoughts?

Also, what chance a US company building S35's (or offering their own design - think NA's P51 Mustang) under licence for France?

Dury.
 
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Lord Strange - The Navy understand that to stop sending convoys would be a big blow to British (and the RNs) prestige, why do you think they didn't tell the cabinet till after it had left? :D

TheExecuter - For the Navy there are few foreign policy problems that aren't helped by sending the fleet to Scapa.
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Vann the Red - I think the big lesson I've learnt while writing this epic is that re-drafting can help even at my lowly level of writing, far better than my original approach of bashing out a complete draft and posting it. It is a fair bit slower though.

As always thank you for the kind words.

Duritz - I do hope you can keep your ego in check after this handy coincidence, it was only a lucky last minute night shift that gave me the time to finish that update (Lord's Disused Underground Station is not as interesting as you might expect).

I've no real issue with French industrial capabilities, France was more than capable of mass production (the car makers managed to produce tens of thousands of car a year without much fuss). What didn't work was a political system that refused to allow job losses anywhere in the defence industry, even if a plan involved net job creation (i.e. the winning bid would hire more workers than the loser would sack) it would still be vetoed.

It was a system where inept management were never sacked and inefficient armament factories kept winning bids regardless of how bad the last job went, so baring a complete rethink across the French political spectrum it's definitely a 'Can't' rather than a 'Wont' on rapid production of new H35s.

The Czechs would love to sell tanks to Spain, however the Republicans don't have the money and the French have a stranglehold on the supply lines so it may be difficult.

US produced S35s are also a good idea but wont happen - 1. National Pride, 2. No jobs for Frenchmen. Of course when things get more serious that may change, but right now France is feeling fairly secure, bar Spain, so wont be resorting to such measures.
 
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By this stage, Winston would had had the Marines landing in La Coruna and the Airborne landing in Madrid. Then Monty would had had to race like a madman from Galicia to rescue the paras...

Why Eden has this funny habit of going into troubles when a narrow pass is near? :D:D:D
 
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I'm not a foreign minister, but the solution seems fairly obvious to me. Stop sending convoys to the mediterranean side of Spain, and accept the logistical trouble of unloading them in the north. Besides, isn't the southern wing staunchly fascist while the northern is more moderately monarchistic militias? It really doesn't seem like such a huge loss given the stakes. Britain doesn't have to fold and stop the convoys this way, so the hawks and navy can take some comfort in that. But it avoids any further confrontations with the republican navy, giving the opponents some ground to loose their ruffled feathers. And besides, the next time a British escort encounters Spanish fleets in the area, the British may not be so lucky as before. They might actually sink three Spanish ships then.

El Pip said:
At the heart of the problem was the government’s policy on Spain, namely that it didn’t actually have one. What they had instead was a desired outcome (a Monarchist victory) and a key objective (not getting involved in the war) but no real idea of how they were to be achieved, relying instead on reacting to issues as they arose.
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So they went in without a plan for how to achieve the desired outcome, no backup-plan in case events on the ground greatly undermine the idealized progress, and do not have a proper exit strategy? This is going to suck.
 
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El Pip said:
Orwellatthefront.jpg

Eric Arthur Blair, more commonly known as George Orwell, with his fellow anarchist militiamen serving on the Northern Front.​
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By the way, which one is Orwell?

C&D said:
So they went in without a plan for how to achieve the desired outcome, no backup-plan in case events on the ground greatly undermine the idealized progress, and do not have a proper exit strategy? This is going to suck.
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No it won't. Planning is way overrated. Having no plans at all will make the self-imposed trainwreck we call "government" entertaining to watch.
 
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So much for the RN as the "silent service"; bellicose press briefings undermining the official line by the cabinet. The Admiralty must be taking lessons from the RAF. ; )

Given Eden's vacillating, I think we'll see some sort of splitting of the baby, either only deliveries to certain ports as suggested by others, or a temporary suspension of convoys (after this next one, if it's not too late) to let things cool off a bit.

Interesting foreshadowing(?) of the repercussions in the USA. Nice work on Orwell too, shades of "Flandin Cocktails." ; )
 
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Kurt_Steiner - What with Madrid still being Monarchist I doubt the Paras would be landing there. But a Marine assault on Valencia while HMS Nelson (what else!) provides offshore bombardment, now that would be right up Winston's street.

C&D - It's a sensible plan, but when have politicians ever gone for the sensible option? And yes blundering in without a real plan or exit strategy does end tend to end badly, as the next few updates may well show....

Nathan Madien - Orwell is the tallest chap in the picture. Interestingly the woman next to him is apparently his wife, don't think she actually fought though there were quite a few anarchist women's battalions, at the start at least. Bizarrely as things got more desperate those were disbanded, clearly the Republican side in OTL didn't want to win that much.

DonnieBaseball - Ahh but there is no official line, that is the problem. And could anyone really expect the Admiralty to keep quiet about a cruiser sinking a battleship?

Glad you liked the alt-Orwell, a bit tricky to work with but I think it came out OK in the end. And yes there will be some problems in the US, Landon can't go around siding with International Communism without some comeback.
 
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El Pip said:
Duritz - I do hope you can keep your ego in check after this handy coincidence, it was only a lucky last minute night shift that gave me the time to finish that update (Lord's Disused Underground Station is not as interesting as you might expect).
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It sounds pretty cool to me... Was the ghost of WG Grace and CB Fry walking around, al la Night at the Museum?

I've no real issue with French industrial capabilities, France was more than capable of mass production (the car makers managed to produce tens of thousands of car a year without much fuss). What didn't work was a political system that refused to allow job losses anywhere in the defence industry, even if a plan involved net job creation (i.e. the winning bid would hire more workers than the loser would sack) it would still be vetoed.

It was a system where inept management were never sacked and inefficient armament factories kept winning bids regardless of how bad the last job went, so baring a complete rethink across the French political spectrum it's definitely a 'Can't' rather than a 'Wont' on rapid production of new H35s.

The Czechs would love to sell tanks to Spain, however the Republicans don't have the money and the French have a stranglehold on the supply lines so it may be difficult.
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Fair enough but that doesn't really answer the question. The Republicans will need tanks soon and the French will need to find them some, and of a certain quality. I'll assume you just don't want to tell me your plan yet.

US produced S35s are also a good idea but wont happen - 1. National Pride, 2. No jobs for Frenchmen. Of course when things get more serious that may change, but right now France is feeling fairly secure, bar Spain, so wont be resorting to such measures.
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I know what you're saying but there is a gaping hole in their cavalry ranks and the Souma's are coming off that assembly line very slow. It's part of the reason they were forced to accept the H35's in the first place. If I recall correctly, you also stated in one of your posts that they planned to use the funding for better equipment, so I guess my question is - where and what is it?

Dury.
 
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El Pip said:
And yes there will be some problems in the US, Landon can't go around siding with International Communism without some comeback.
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Don't you mean blowback?

Interestingly enough, Landon isn't above taking a pro-Communist position:

After the communist revolution in China, he was one of the first to advocate recognition of Mao Zedong's communist government, and its admission to the United Nations, when this was still a very unpopular position among the leadership and followers of both major parties.
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Not that I begrudge the pages of entertainment you provide for free, but you do realise this AAR is proceeding considerably more slowly than real time?

Keep it up, anyway!
 
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Praetonia said:
Not that I begrudge the pages of entertainment you provide for free, but you do realise this AAR is proceeding considerably more slowly than real time?

Keep it up, anyway!
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Thats a feature not a problem ;)
 
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Duritz - I believe Grace and Fry were still upset upset about the navvies who dug up the pitch in the first place; Here

There will be further discussion on tanks in Spain and there are plans, but as you assumed I'm saving them for the next Hispanic tankporn update.

Nathan Madien - I'd thought blowback was only for secret interventions? When your open and honest about it then you just get consequences, though I may be missing the subtleties of the term.

Its a good thing Landon was happy to take unpopular pro-communist positions, he'll certainly get plenty of practice as he tries to defend his policy over Spain!

Praetonia - I'm not just aware of being slower than real time, I'm proud of it. To quote my own sig;
My Sig said:
The finest slower-than-real-time British AAR on the board
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Derek Pullem - Indeed! Now my award winning days are behind me I'm really focusing on the claim to fame I have left. ;)

Kurt_Steiner - Sometimes I think I should just abandon plot updates entirely and just progress the AAR through the medium of techporn updates and battles. It would still be slower than real time and I suspect it might even be more popular...
 
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El Pip said:
C&D - The trivia and the speculation are very much appreciated, I particularly like the idea of this being the war triggering crisis. It isn't, I have something else in mind for that, but I can see the scenario you suggest being all too plausible.
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And then, when Hitler has conquered France and dominates the continent, with America mired in depression and run by the mafia, we can hope that the Nazis have the decency to eat Britain last.

I'm sort of at a loss. Why is Spain still ending up run by Communists if the French are still sending in aid?
 
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El Pip said:
Duritz - I believe Grace and Fry were still upset upset about the navvies who dug up the pitch in the first place; Here
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Stunning! :D

There will be further discussion on tanks in Spain and there are plans, but as you assumed I'm saving them for the next Hispanic tankporn update.
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YAY! :D :D

Dury.
 
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Faeelin - Bits of the Spanish Republic have ended up quite Communist, however other parts have stayed pre-war Republican and still other areas are becoming French. (Plus Barcelona is quite the anarchist delight and Bilbao remains fiercely different in almost every way). Stalin may not be generous but he has spent wisely, Soviet aid is concerned with boosting the Communist faction rather more than winning the war.

So if you wanted to say Spain is a triumph of Republicanism you would point at the Interior Ministry (still quite pre-war) or Foreign Ministry (increasingly French). However if you wanted to emphasise the Communist you would pick out the Ministry of Public Information or the Navy. Naturally Landon points at the former, his opponents the latter.

Duritz - The men of tanks remain easily pleased.... :D
 
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El Pip said:
Kurt_Steiner - Sometimes I think I should just abandon plot updates entirely and just progress the AAR through the medium of techporn updates and battles. It would still be slower than real time and I suspect it might even be more popular...
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Pippy, as much as I adore you AAR and the lovely (tech)porn, I must confess I would like to see it nearing its ends BEFORE my GREATGRANDCHILDREN begin to suspect that I'm gone nuts...
 
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After reading some other AAR's where Royal Navy defeats Japanese, I can't wait for Pip's chapter where Royal Navy and new and improved FAA clashes with Kido Butai. Although it's nice to see RN prevail in those other AAR's, it's still to generic and bland (RN had better tech and ships so it won).
Here I know the battle itself will be preceded with dozen techporn updates revealing all details about every single plane and ship in both navies, bringing it to life almost like it really happened.

And on top of that, that moment can't me more than 5 or 6 years away :)
 
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