The Butterfly Effect: A British AAR

Chapter CI: The Importance of Succession Planning - Part I​

The Spring of 1937 was not a peaceful time, for those inclined towards the morbid there was death everywhere; in Spain the winter lull had ended as the Republicans launched the first campaign of the year, in the Far East Japanese troops were provoking incidents with both the Chinese and the Soviets and even the Americas were not immune as Ecuadorian troops clashed with their Peruvian counterparts over the disputed border. In Westminster however there was but one subject worthy of attention, the death of the Prime Minister; Austen Chamberlain passed away during the night of the 17th of March, failing by a scant few weeks to reach the milestone of a year in office. Despite his relatively short term in office he had managed to leave a quite substantial legacy, if in places a controversial one. Foreign policy naturally dominated his legacy; the Treaty of Valletta had further confirmed the Mediterranean as a British lake, the support of King Idris as leader of Libya had established as reliably pro-British ally in the region while the Dominion of Rhodesia had managed to offend both the Left of the Labour Party and the Right of the Conservative Party, an event that normally marked out a policy as a reasonable compromise. At the time however the big changes were seen as the breaking down of the Entene Cordial, a major element of British continental policy for almost three decades, and the rising influence of the Dominions in Imperial policy as they began to seriously industrialise and have foreign policy objectives of their own. In contrast his domestic legacy was somewhat muted and it would be his successors who would reap the benefits, and the problems, on subjects such as social reform, the railways and industrial relations. One event can be taken to sum up his time as Prime Minister; the Abdication of King Edward VIII. While it was obviously a significant domestic event it would be remembered almost entirely for it's overseas impacts; Hertzog's attempted political coup in South Africa and the resumption of the Anglo-Irish trade war. In Westminster ,however, there was little time for thinking about legacies, instead the slightly more urgent matter of the next Prime Minister dominated attention.

The process of selecting a new Conservative Party leader was something of an unusual process even by the standards of the day, the party eschewed anything so crass as a formal system, preferring instead the freedom (and pitfalls) of being able to use whatever method seemed best at the time. Barring exceptionally urgent circumstances, such as those that had propelled Austen Chamberlain into the role the previous year, the preferred method was usually for the party to leisurely argue amongst itself while the party's elder statesmen gathered opinions and took soundings before, eventually, a consensus would be reached and the new leader duly 'emerged' with the unanimous support of the party. This process was made even more opaque to outsiders (and many insiders) as there were no declared candidates, openly announcing an ambition to be leader and then campaigning for it was one of the few ways to guarantee not getting it. An ambitious 'candidate' therefore relied on allies to subtly promote his cause in public and lobby like crazy in private, a system that put the emphasis on experience and connections and worked against dark horse outsiders, which was just the way most of the party liked it. It was this system that the party fell back on in the spring of 1937 believing that, while selecting a new leader was of course important, it was not, in fact, desperately urgent; it was well known, if seldom discussed, that the government machine was more than capable of running itself for a couple of weeks (or more) without ministerial oversight.

Before we look at the men who actually had a chance of winning it is instructive to look at the also rans and never started of the contest, given the turmoil that would engulf the party a bare handful of months later an understanding of the internal dynamics of the various factions will be useful for later chapters. We begin with Winston Churchill who's ambitions were snuffed out almost before the contest began, as a former Prime Minister he was elevated into the inner circle of senior party members who effectively ran the process and reached the final decision on the next leader. While this was undoubtedly a fine achievement, particularly for a man who scant years earlier had been, in his own words, in 'the wilderness', it must have been a bitter-sweet moment, for his elevation also killed off any wild hopes he may have had of returning to the leadership.

If Churchill had too much ambition to realise his time had passed, the next gentlemen had perhaps too little to realise the opportunity; Oliver Stanley was perhaps the best shot at a compromise candidate had he the ambition to grasp it. In fairness the selection process was not in his favour, as we have seen it was designed to hinder not encourage dark horse candidates, but when the 'voter's remorse' set in over the Summer of 1937 Stanley's name, along with others, was on many Conservative MP's lips alongside the age old refrain of 'if only...'. Our final also-ran is a man who, at first glance, should have been a contender, the then Chancellor Leo Amery. As holder of one of the Great Offices of State he was a political heavyweight and his supporters, while not overly numerous, were loyal and vocal. However Amery had two great weaknesses; personality and policy. On policy the 'problem' was that his views had prevailed; rearmament and a strong military was such orthodoxy it was even Labour party policy, Imperial Preference was popular and well established and his vision of a British Empire of independent Dominions was coming to pass in the shape of the Dominion of Rhodesia and the Government of India Act. This problem was compounded by his personality, just as some people are bad losers he was a bad winner, lording it over his past adversaries and determined to consign them to the same wilderness his fellow hawks had been forced to endure. While there is a certain old testament justice to such actions they were hardly calculated to win friends and influence people, given the size of the dove (and ex-dove) factions in the party it should be no great surprise his name did not make the final unofficial short list of candidates.

Having covered those who, for whatever reason, had no chance of winning let us turn our attention to the men who did make the party elder's list. In the next chapter we will consider the candidacy of Alfred Duff Cooper, Anthony Eden and Neville Chamberlain.

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Notes;

As I warned British politics, but hopefully of interest to some. As those interested in the subject have probably noted Austen has died on cue leaving something of a mess behind him. As he was in perfect health till the end, and was popular with the party, no-one has been thinking too hard about a replacement so there is no 'favoured son' candidate.

On the candidates Churchill is a busted flush (though I doubt he'll admit that to himself for a while yet), Halifax is in India and Amery had the tact of an enraged bull so could never get a wide enough range of support. Oliver Stanley was an interesting one but my reading is he lacked the ambition.

Now while the next update covers the new PM and his first budget the question is; what next? When we return to Spain it will be for a series of updates, much will occur, so is there anything anyone wants in between the new PM and Spain? Choices I see are;

1. International tech porn
2. Straight to Spain
3. Anything else

I realise that point (3) is leaving myself open, but what is life without challenges?