The Butterfly Effect: A British AAR

[TheExecuter]

Whoohoo! El Pip is updating again!

[Puts dunce cap back on and procedes to prepare to ask dumb questions...]

How will you ensure that Italy builds no more capital ships? Will we see any Italian Scharnhorsts or Dunquerques to get around your new "London Treaty"?

Good luck with the war and future foreign policy!

[Screaming-Eagle]

Favorite AAR right now!! Brilliant!

[El Pip]

But a mere two weeks after the last update, another one! At this rate I'll start updating faster than those delinquents VJ and Allenby...

This wasn't the update I was originally going to write, but this Easter I've been out and about and ended up at the RAF Museum Hendon and the Imperial War Museum. After visiting those two and having a bit of a think about my own assumptions and views I ended up substantially re-writing most of this.

Even I was surprised at the way it came out, but it fits the events of this timeline so I kept it. Anyway;

Fulcrumvale - It's a noble aim, however the mainland looks.... tricky.

Sir Humphrey - He's a damned good chap Brucey ain't he? Hopefully not too much blood will be spilt, but much will depend upon Mussolini.

Jalex - A fine attitude, Italian smashing is always a good idea.

Llywelyn - To be fair I re-read it and struggled. Basically Huey Long was shot by Carl Weiss in Lousianna, so I had Al Smith shot by Charles Black in Lousianna, setting up Huey Long with his chance at the Presidency. How anyone was supposed to 'get' that, if indeed there was anything to 'get', is a much bigger riddle than any I'll ever set.

Karelian - Removing Mussolini would require an invasion, as discussed impractical, or a coup which British intelligence of the time really wasn't set up for, lacking sources and agents in Italy. As for Austria, as I understand it historically Italy had been a bulwark against anschluss an attitude that only changed after the Pact of Steel and success in Abyssinia.

scubadoobie2 - Rest assured it wont be anywhere near that simple, many big problems on the way to derail these plans.

wilegfass - Funny you should mention that as old Nev crops up in this update. In any case the only Chamberlain in Government is Austen Chamberlain, not to be mistake for his half-brother Neville as they were differed in many respects. This message is from the CCCC (Chamberlain Confusion Clearup Commission)

Germany, having been embarrassed by the collapse of the Anglo-German Naval Agreement, is looking for easier victories before tackling Anschluss and there's one obvious one right inside her borders.

Vann the Red - Well that's why the Aussies insisted on it. Only having the small RAN and a few old cruisers at Hong Kong focuses your mind on where you want the Royal Navy post-war.

Judas Maccabeus - The dominions were never quiet in real life, it would be odd if they were here. They declared war separately and will sign the peace treaty separately so they have a voice, all the stronger if they commit forces.

And you haven't seen the beginning of Hertzog's annoyingness, it gets so much worse.

GeneralHannibal - I'm sure the appropriate mandates and 'advised' governments will be put in place, although the Horn of Africa is still up for discussion so to speak.

TheExecuter - One way to stop shipbuilding would be destroy the dry docks, ship the Italian's precision machinery back to the UK and bankrupt the country with reparations. In truth though the limitations will probably be harsh, as in anything above a light cruiser will be right out. That way even rampant limit pushing will produce at most a heavy cruiser, which would be no real threat.

Screaming-Eagle - Thanks for that, just the support a writer needs. Be rewarded with an update.

[Llywelyn]

Basically Huey Long was shot by Carl Weiss in Lousianna, so I had Al Smith shot by Charles Black in Lousianna, setting up Huey Long with his chance at the Presidency.

See, if you'd called him Charlie Schwartz, it would've just jumped out at me

But

1. I got it in two, and
2. Huey Long's going for the presidency? Coooooooool.*

j.

*apologies if I missed that post. Been busy (see sig).
EDIT: Apologies - it was in that post. I just focused on the Garner bit and skimmed over Huey. Go hick! Nail 'em up!

[GeneralHannibal]

Just thinking about the future, but a defeated buy still in control Musso could be dangerous. You would push him into Germany's arms, and he'd likly be gearing his land forces for a re-match. However, with no Italian "volunteers" in Spain, Facsism might lose there, but on the other hand, Churchil favored the nationalists. Hmmmm

[El Pip]

Chapter XXVIII: Fate is Not Without a Sense of Irony.

With a set of objectives now decided proper strategic decisions could be made, the easiest of which was too concentrate on the North Africa theatre, Lieutenant General Barker being left to conduct a holding operation in East Africa until the Smuts Mission arrived. In North Africa General Gort, pleased as any commander that his theatre would receive priority, was left grappling with the issue that had dogged the campaign since the beginning; Mobility, specifically his troops lack of it. This was not an army problem, the gap that would be left by the phasing out of mounted units had been identified in the 1920s, it was a political one.

In the aftermath of the Great War defence expenditure was naturally wound down, there was no need for Britain to retain a standing army in the millions nor for the fleet to continue laying down new tonnage at the same rate. To control the defence estimates then Secretary of State for War in 1919 had formulated the "Ten Year Rule" which stated that spending should be planned on the assumption that the British Empire would not be involved in a large scale war in the following ten years. In the immediate aftermath of the Great War this was a common assumption, it was believed that the huge losses incurred by every combatant would act as a brake on aggression by the great powers. In the years following this decision defence spending was pared to the bone as the treasury's axe fell on every aspect of the services, headline spending falling over 75% within two years as the rule was rolled over and the ten year point extended each budget. By 1928 the same man, now Chancellor of the Exchequer, decided the roll over was to be automatic and decreed the Ten Year Rule was in force unless deliberately countermanded.

Ramsay MacDonald, tried to abolish the Ten Year rule but was vetoed by his Foreign Secretary Arthur Henderson.

This policy was continued in Ramsay MacDonald's Labour Government, despite MacDonald himself pressing for it's abolition and was retain until the National Government cabinet of late 1931 which put a new man into No.11. This man formally abandoned the Ten Year Rule and, although not dramatically increasing investment, made available funding for some procurement, so as to keep the British defence industry from closing down due to the depression. The new man also started the Rationalisation programme whereby mines and factories closed during the Depression were purchased by the Crown, modernised and re-equipped if possible, demolished and re-built if necessary and then kept in mothballs for future needs. Prior to the December 1935 election this most forward looking Chancellor was putting the finishing touches to the 'Shadow Factory' scheme, providing for parallel facilities at the major industrial sites of the country, enabling production to be rapidly ramped up when the economy was strong enough to allow an increase in defence spending and providing jobs and training in the meantime. There can be little doubt it was only the modern Rationalised factories and the pre-built Shadow Factories that enabled British industry to so rapidly get up the speed needed to keep the forces in North Africa supplied.

The name of the first man, the force behind the crippling Ten Year Rule? The feted voice of rearmament Winston Churchill. The second man, who had prepared Britain economically for war? The much maligned Neville Chamberlain. The cruel irony of fate indeed.

When put against this economic backdrop the reason for Gort's forces lack of mobility become clear. while the two 'M's of modernisation and mechanisation cropped up in every War Office briefing given and specification issued there was not the budget to implement these policies. The phasing out of mounted units for instance had been carried out for the cost savings, not because of the policy of mechanisation, and the faithful following of the 'Ten Year Rule' throughout the 1920s had strangled the many replacement projects of investment; The Tank Design Bureau had been closed in 1923 while the Experimental Mechanised Force established in 1927 had not the money to fully equip itself, let alone conduct exercises to develop tactics.

On the equipment side, development and procurement had been pared to the bone across the board, but it had hit the cavalry particularly hard. Deprived of their horses on the altar of cost savings and modernisation it soon became apparent the treasury would not fund the development, let along procurement, of significant new mechanised equipment. Forced to work closely with the Royal Armoured Corps, home of the mechanised units, just to equip themselves relations were strained between the senior officers of the two branches. The Cavalry still resented being forced to dismount and mechanise and naturally disliked the most visible symbol of mechanisation, fully armoured units. For the Royal Armoured Corps it was a matter of self preservation, the political clout of the Cavalry was immense due to the sheer number of ex-Cavalry men in the War Office and Parliament. Already fighting for funding the prospect of sharing with an angry, politically connected and, in their opinion, old-fashioned branch was not a prospect any tanker looked forward too.

The most prominent victim of this lack of co-operation was the Vickers 6-ton tank, also know as the Mark E, by the Army Review Board, ostentatiously due to concerns over the leaf spring suspension, in practice a victim of inter-branch rivalry ensuring that the cavalry's favoured Carden Loyd tankettes not the Royal Armoured Corps' preference was procured. While there is little doubt that the Carden Loyd enjoyed great export success and was copied wholesale by many nations it was still a tankette. Carrying no main gun, only a 0.50' machine gun, and thinly armoured they were no match for a real tank and could easily be disable by concentrated machine gun fire. It's only advantage was it low cost enabling countries to develop 'armoured' corps at a fraction of the cost of a proper tank unit.

Vickers Mark E, a fine tank used by main nations but a victim of inter-service rivalries.

The shortage of modern equipment was matched by the lack of practised doctrines, though deprived of funding development continued but at a smaller, unofficial, scale, General Wilson's motor-rifle battalions at Camberley and Brigadier Hobart's work at the Royal Armoured Corps' depot being the most prominent. The problem was that this work was mainly theoretical, large scale exercises placed too much strain on the limited budget and in any case there weren't enough units to conduct more than the smallest exercises.

The practical upshot for Gort was that he had no mounted units to send off in pursuit and his few armoured units were equipped with either ancient Vicker's Mediums MkIIs or the newest Carden Loyd Light MkVIs. The former were too slow, the latter scout and reconnaissance units. More to the point even if there had been any effective tanks to send all the trucks in the theatre were needed to consolidate the overstretched supply lines, denying any pursuit force of infantry support which was considered unacceptably risky. The only unit which met the Gort's demands for speed, mobility and fire-power, the ad-hoc WILFORCE, was barely two battalions strong, fine for small raids or diversionary thrust, ridiculously inadequate to pursue a whole army. While the recriminations over the lack of any unit capable of high speed pursuit would last long after the war, that was of little help to the planners of Operation Templar who once again had to think unconventionally.

[Fulcrumvale]

Look at it this way: in 1936 there weren’t any good tanks or decently mechanized forces.

[Judas Maccabeus]

Ah, the old problem of getting on a "war footing". And, as usual, things aren't always as they seem when looking into a person's past. Hopefully the tanks will start showing up now that it's obvious Europe is very unstable.

[GeneralHannibal]

Bah, tanks, who needs 'em. Good old men can do the trick.

In all seriousness though, looks like you'll have to live without strong armor for the rest of the war.

[Jalex]

Bad trouble for the army
of course based on your enemy i dont see the need to worry
now my only wish for this AAR is the dominions reunite with Britain

[Jape]

Fantastic stuff El Pip! I return to the forums to find quality is still in high supply.

[Sir Humphrey]

A fine update, capturing the great sense "what might or might not have been".

[Duritz]

Indeed Humpy, luckily our other AAR (which is poorer for your absence) has maintained the great leader Neville Chamberlain as PM and will no doubt benefit for it.

Love this one Pippy, keep up your great work here...

[Screaming-Eagle]

Excellent AAR if I may say so again!! Excellent Update, great stuff! Keep Updating this wonderful AAR. (Sadly, of AAR's of this type, you by far are the fastest)

[Lordling]

The dominions were never quiet in real life, it would be odd if they were here. They declared war separately and will sign the peace treaty separately so they have a voice, all the stronger if they commit forces.

Loving the AAR, but, just one thing. Australia didn't declare war seperately - we decided that, since Britain was at war, so were we. Every other Dominion declared war by themselves, but, at the time, the Australian leadership was very.. pro-British, to put it mildly.

Oh, and here's hoping Germany doesn't decide to intervene! If they blow this whole thing up, you might have difficulty shipping your troops over to France in time to stop the fall of France.

[Vann the Red]

Interesting post, EP. One wonders if any of the dominions mightn't lend you some cavalry to use while you work up a mechanization scheme...

Vann

[El Pip]

Fulcrumvale - Nobody may have had a good tank, but there were several less bad tanks. My main problem was the emphasis on tankettes with machine guns not proper tanks with cannon.

Take for instance the Vickers Mark E which became the Soviet T-26, that was a proper tank. Would you rather have a T-26 or the MkVIc 'sisters' the CV-33 and Panzer Is? Any tanker in the Spanish Civil War would give you a very definite answer in favour of the T-26!

Judas Maccabeus - People's pasts are never as coherent as they pretend. And I'm sure the generals shouting up and down about a lack of tanks should get a suitable response.

GeneralHannibal - Fortunately the British Army has always depended on the men not the machine so this is not an unusual situation.

Jalex - I can't think of an aim that would go down less well with the Dominions that a return to direct rule.

Jape - Your timing is excellent, catching one of the rare updates.

Sir Humphrey - The entire period is so rich with what-ifs and might of beens, mistakes made and lucky breaks I had to make an effort to put that across.

Duritz - I still awaiting an opportunity in the 'Other AAR', you've seen fit to proceed without the advice of British Industry. Which is a shame.

And I still retain my ambivalence about Neville, while his record on the domestic front is formidable he was either A. A naive tit or B. Wilfully Blind about foreign policy.

Screaming-Eagle - Update speed is horrendously variable and depends more upon opportunity than inspiration.

Lordling - I believe your confusing some strange parallel world with this AAR. While you are correct about what happened in WWII this war unfolded differently. Italy declared war on just Britain,no point declaring war on the Dominions as well, there was always the tiniest chance they might not have joined in. In this timeline therefore Australia and the other loyal dominions declared war on Italy, not as a constitutional point but as a gesture of support.

Vann the Red - It's an option, but not sadly a plausible one. Canada lacks cavalry, Australia is hamstrung by having to provide only volunteer units , New Zealand could probably get together a brigade or two but it would take a couple of months to organise and ship out. South Africa probably could do on short notice but Hertzog's plans don't include helping the Empire, far from it...

[Llywelyn]

...that was of little help to the planners of Operation Templar who once again had to think unconventionally.

African swallows?

Do they migrate as far north as Italian Libya?
j.

EDIT: Oh wait, this is one of them 'serious' AARs where they hide their jokes in the footnotes.

[GhostWriter]

El Pip: ...My main problem was the emphasis on tankettes with machine guns not proper tanks with cannon.

how long will it take for research and production of a decent medium tank? ?

good luck ! !

excellent updates ! !

[scubadoobie2]

African swallows?

Do they migrate as far north as Italian Libya?
j.

EDIT: Oh wait, this is one of them 'serious' AARs where they hide their jokes in the footnotes.

Yes, but only if they have a half a coconut, which of course would be grabbed by the husk.

Great update Pip!
Who'd have thought. The British army getting bogged down in the desert with enough supplies to throw endless cocktail parties but no means to get from A to B.
At least the weather's good.
Considering that armoured vehicles don't seem to have come on much from WW1, perhaps a minimal amount of cash pumped into researching British 'Camelry' would be of greater use?

Nice to understand how you're getting your information and ideas in order to flesh out this AAR and make it as good as it is. Have you been tempted to use any of your own pictures of of military hardware in any of your future updates?