The Butterfly Effect: A British AAR

[Duritz]

And you're just a whingeing Pom who can't seem to remember the series after 2005... anywho, just wait till the fat lady and all that, what!

Apologies trekkie, I missed the reference to your AAR. Yours is obviously a far better story than this one...

Dury.

[El Pip]

Is it an update? Yes. Is it for this AAR? No I'm afraid not. Night shifts have proven decidedly un-helpful for producing updates for Butterfly Effect, I think the lack of reference material and internet is probably to blame, however it has inspired me to start a French narrative AAR;

Here

No I don't know why either.

Rest assured this will continue and remains top priority, the first chunk of the next update has been started and should be done soonish.

[Nathan Madien]

Is it an update? Yes. Is it for this AAR? No I'm afraid not. Night shifts have proven decidedly un-helpful for producing updates for Butterfly Effect, I think the lack of reference material and internet is probably to blame, however it has inspired me to start a French narrative AAR;

Here

No I don't know why either.

Rest assured this will continue and remains top priority, the first chunk of the next update has been started and should be done soonish.

At least you aren't quietly letting your AAR slowly drift into the blackhole of "whatever happen to that AAR?"

[Duritz]

At least it won't delay this AAR... but then how could it!

Dury.

[Vann the Red]

At least it won't delay this AAR... but then how could it!

Dury.

Well said!

Ruddy

[Jalex]

Just out of interest have you got any plans for a long term survival of the Empire as an entity in any way shape or form?

[Carlstadt Boy]

Just out of interest have you got any plans for a long term survival of the Empire as an entity in any way shape or form?

He said once that he imagines it as some sort of NATO/EU mix (economic and military alliance). But Im wondering about economy - british economic history of 20 century is a story of a slow decline - for example Japan would surpass UK much sooner without the war according to prewar growth rates, so this is just as important as keeping the Empire united for preventing british decline. And this is not impossible, resources and population of the Empire should make it more than a match for a US economy.

[Jalex]

The big question is how you keep it united though

[DonnieBaseball]

The big question is how you keep it united though

If I understand correctly it was Britain's inability to defend its Far Eastern empire that went a long way towards (a) inflaming nationalist forces in the colonies and (b) seeing Australia & New Zealand into the American orbit. If a war in the far east never happens or is prosecuted in a much more positive manner ...

As for British economy, the nearly 100% conversion to war production plus the terms of lend lease really wrecked things--currency reserves and the export trade were basically nil for 5 years, plus after the war US demanded that sterling become convertible which did not go well ...

A UK in TTL which is stronger economically due to better peacetime policy (more public/private investment in industry, etc.) or manages to "afford the war" better somehow would be fascinating to see, especially with the USA in this AAR very much diminished (at least at present).

[El Pip]

Nathan Madien - I was writing last night in fact. I have most of an update ready, it's just in the wrong order and mostly about aircraft development. I'm currently wondering how to fit it in.

Duritz - Remember this AAR's promise; significantly slower than real time or your money back. (It's taken 3 and a half years to get to Nov/Dec 1936)

Vann the Red - Would airframe porn help make amends?

Jalex - Keeping the Empire under a British banner is something of a chicle for British AARs (see For King & Country, Against All Odds)

As I have gotten my fair share of clichés already (a weak US, Italy being awful at war) on a writing level I feel I should try and avoid it. But on a personal level I don't want to write about a declining Britain, I'm doing this for my own enjoyment as much as anything else. So my plan is a compromise.

Carlstadt Boy - Good memory sir. My current plan is indeed for a turbo-charged Commonwealth type organisation. Instead of AUS/NZ/CAN drifting towards the US they keep the ties with the motherland, which in turn means Britain avoiding the siren's song of Europe. India and the Africa colonies getting independence on better terms would also help forge a long term economic/military alliance.

As you say Economics is key, avoiding Britain going bankrupt fighting WW2 will help (I'd also note Japan's pre-war growth was only achieved by red-lining the economy and storing up problems for later). Now the 1930s saw the Dollar begin to eclipse Sterling as the world's reserve currency and New York start to overtake London. With the US deep in the mire that wont happen, which has got to help considerably. Equally with Imperial Preference going better than OTL the trade links are stronger in the Empire, something we shall see more of in the next update.

DonnieBaseball - Wise words. The beefing up of the Far East will help immensely, the new naval squadron sends a strong message to Australia and New Zealand that they do gain something from the Empire.

And as you say five years of total war, economic blockade and ruinous expense destroyed the British economy. Between WW1 and WW2 the accumulated wealth of generations of Empire was spent and replaced with vast debts that were only paid off a few years ago I believe.

The question is will the next Great War be affordable? (I don't think it's too much of a spolier to say large scale war will come to the world at some point in this AAR )

[trekaddict]

I can understand you in regard to that cliche, the problem I had with this is that I wanted to do something drastically different from OTL and as I can't stand the communists, the British Empire was the most logical choice.

[Carlstadt Boy]

Hmmm... IIRC British economic growth was bad even before WW1 and pathetic in interwar years, so even peacetime economy needs to be fixed. Some early Keynesian economics El Pip started just might do the trick.

And regarding Empire - whats the point in writing a British AAR if Empire dissolves in the end . EU/NATO idea should keep the Empire close in a realistic way.

[Jape]

If the Japanese can be kept at bay, the Aussies and Kiwis will be on side (actually a Cold War in the Far East rather than decisive British victory might be best for long-term Commonwealth relations), however Canada will be a lot trickier as geography and numbers simply make America a more attractive trade partner than Britain.

Still I'm sure whatever happens it will be a solid read.

[Duritz]

Pippy, I see you're in a sort of bind...

I know you want your writings to be as realistic as possible, I know you want to see the Empire re enter its pomp but I also know that any widespread fighting is going to bankrupt the Empire.

I comiserate with your predicament... out of the triumvirate of goals, I say let Economic realism fall by the wayside. This is your AAR old boy, What!

Now, on with the Aircraft porn (and hoping for the RAAF to be at the forfront of Empire inovation).

Dury.

[Mordhiem]

Hmmm... IIRC British economic growth was bad even before WW1 and pathetic in interwar years, so even peacetime economy needs to be fixed. Some early Keynesian economics El Pip started just might do the trick.

Rubbish. The UK was probably the country that best weathered the depression. It's true that the British economy lost traction relative to the US and Germany, but that was unavoidable. And while it's true coal and other staple industries had a hard time this was more than offset by rapid growth in the new industries such as aircraft and cars.

[Nathan Madien]

Vann the Red - Would airframe porn help make amends?

Will we ever see Mr. Landon again?

[Carlstadt Boy]

Rubbish. The UK was probably the country that best weathered the depression. It's true that the British economy lost traction relative to the US and Germany, but that was unavoidable. And while it's true coal and other staple industries had a hard time this was more than offset by rapid growth in the new industries such as aircraft and cars.

Well, I`m no expert on economy, my opinion comes mostly from charts in Paul Kennedy`s "Rise and fall of great powers" and some other minor sources. There I saw UK with a very slow growth during the first half of century.

[Atlantic Friend]

Well, I`m no expert on economy, my opinion comes mostly from charts in Paul Kennedy`s "Rise and fall of great powers" and some other minor sources. There I saw UK with a very slow growth during the first half of century.

Great book, that one.

[Maximus101]

You will have a problem with Imperial Preference in Canada if Mackenzie King is Prime Minister. King was a continentalist since he worked a couple decades in the US with the Rockefellers. He opposed R B Bennett’s proposal for Imperial preference and scrapped the whole thing when he came to power at the end of 1935. He then was quietly trying to get free trade with the US because he remembered what happened to the Liberals in 1911 when they proposed free trade out loud. They were soundly defeated and King who was just an MP lost his seat. After he defeated Bennett he opened up more trade to the US but always hesitated going for free trade.

It doesn’t really matter how bad it is in the US. King was friends with the Rockefellers and trade with Canada would help them out.

In Canada you might have to find a way to get King and the Liberals out. Maybe if you had his eccentric ways exposed to the public. He had a preference for communing with spirits, such as Leonardo da Vinci, Sir Wilfrid Laurier, his dead mother, and several of his Irish Terrier dogs, all named Pat.

Getting a Conservative government in Canada will greatly help keep Canada in the Commonwealth.

[Vann the Red]

Vann the Red - Would airframe porn help make amends?

Pippy, you tease. You know what an abject whore I am for airframe porn.

Ruddy