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The Butterfly Effect: A British AAR

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El Pip said:
Sadly I've fallen of the 'Short and to the point' bandwagon and diverted into a vast splurge on central Africa. It was only supposed to be a paragraph. :(
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But then again African history from 1930s onwards is so fascinating stuff that one gets carried away all too easily. All those ATL possibilities...
 
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Gah! Completely forgot while finishing off that update I must extend thanks to Le Jones for confirming a few ideas about that one. That said any mistakes and glaring errors do of course remain my own. Anyway;

Carlstadt Boy - History is in the details I've always thought, the countless small events that actually shape and divert the flow of history.

DonnieBaseball - The rail network also serves British strategic interests, the Abyssinian War has once again shown the importance (and vulnerability) of the Suez canal. Having an alternate overland route from the Persian Gulf to the Med is therefore considered a 'good thing' by the IGS and armchair generals throughout the Empire.

You've hit the nail on the head over "Partnership", London hopes the black middle class will eventually dominate the electorate and provide black majority rule through the back door (hell the really ambitious hope that non-racial parties will emerge and people might vote on other policies! :eek: :D ). IF it gets implemented with commitment and IF there's no backtracking it might keep the colonies just ahead of the game vs black nationalism and could lead to a better transition to independence. That said almost anything has to better than OTL South Rhodesia/Zimbabwe.

Greater Rhodesia, hmm none of the locals want it is the problem. The Rhodesia don't want their poorer neighbours and the neighbours themselves have a better deal (in native rights terms at least) as is. Possibly Greater Rhodesia may come about as a punishment not a reward! :D

Italian East Africa. Tits. Forgot that, so it's possible the Foreign Office did too. Italian Somaliland gets lumped in with British Somaliland probably. Eritrea is a bit more tricky, OTL the UN spent years thinking about it post war so it's not easy. As such, and with the limited number of actual Britons involved, I'd imagine the government would launch a Royal Commission and hope it goes away.

caffran - It's always very reassuring to get such appreciative posts, so please keep it up. Well as long as you actually are appreciative at least.

Karelian - That's the problem in the nutshell, so many possibilities if only the 'right' decision is made earlier. Or for more interesting outcomes one can also consider the 'wrong' decision being made as well. The trick is of course to determine which is which. :)
 
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El Pip said:
Sir Herbet James Stanley. Governor of Southern Rhodesia, and a former Governor of Northern Rhodesia, he would serve as the first Governor-General of the united Rhodesia. A complex character he was an avid campaigner for the amalgamation of the region's colonies while also maintaing the official line on native rights. Indeed many in the region still resented him for having reserved vast acreages for native use and stopping settler land grabs while a young Resident Commissioner.
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GASP! Someone who cares about the natives?! Great scott! :eek:

I didn't think people like that existed.
 
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RULE BRITANNIA! Yey for Empire! I do like how you ensure we know about all the empire...
 
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Excellent update Pip, great to see that all the effort to kick the Italian's out and install a pro-British hierarchy are not unjustified.
I mean, whats the point if you can't show the natives how much better you are than the previous owners at improving things whilst simultaneously making sure there's a quick route out for any 'as-yet' undiscovered riches?

It's a win-win for everyone it would seem...;)
 
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Nathan Madien - There were a few chaps interested in the natives, it was after all official London policy since the 1920s (The 1923 Devonshire Paper for instance argued black Africans should have more rights in colonies across the region).

However colonial officers tended to 'go native' and start acting like the settlers they were ruling instead of their masters in London. Stanley was one of the few who didn't, but he was very much in the minority.

Sir Humphrey - Gauge is a funny one, there's pretty much everything in the region - metre gauge for the Baghdad to Basra, 1050 for the Hedjaz Railway, a good chunk of Cape gauge scattered around Egypt and of course random chunks of standard gauge as well. The biggest part of the project, after filling in a few gaps, is converting the whole lot to standard gauge.

Certainly the new Libyan lines will be standard gauge and probably built as John Whitton style 'pioneer lines'; no-one really expects much traffic in either volume or weight so cheap rails are the way forward. That means something light and ideally mixed-traffic, say GWR 0-6-0 7400s for most duties with a few LMS Jubilees or similar for the 'prestige' trains. Thoughts?

Lord Strange - All the Empire apart from the bits I forget about. :eek:o

scubadoobie2 - Being a better colonial overlord than Italy is not a difficult task so there's a lot of good will to play with. As a plus point Idris was very pro-western and (as far as I can tell) ran the place fairly well in OTL till he became very ill towards the end. Thing are indeed looking good in Libya. :)

Bafflegab - Truth be told I don't think it will matter a great deal unless Britain and France end at war with each other which, even allowing for current annoyances, is probably unlikely. In almost any other permutation the Med / North Africa is either not a theatre or one in which the RN and/or MN utterly dominate. Might allow for faster troop movements in the event of an uprising in the region but that's about all I think.

More interesting butterfly is what happens when people in the region can theoretically travel from Libya to Iraq to Saudi Arabia and all points in between with relative ease. Building such vast railroads elsewhere tended to produce migrations and big social changes as ideas flowed in with the new comers. Question is how much (if any) migrations will happen or indeed be allowed? And what will the effect of the movement or bans on movement be? Something for me to ponder.
 
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Yes, your plan for a humble Japanese Army is probably a couple of metres too long a bow to string... so I guess that leaves me guessing as to your intentions.

Nice update on the whole African problem. Of course I see a situation where the money/land criteria plays an endless game of inflation in line with black middle class earnings... still, I bet on them eventually gaining a majority, and the soft ceiling means a fair chance of a better outcome than OTL!

Why, Michael Palin and Ewan McGregor will look like wimps if Africa continues to develop as it has! ;)

Humpy and Pippy - trains... just couldn't help yourselves could you!

Dury.
 
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Well traditionally it seems the Middle East became a dumping ground for everything that nobody wanted or could flog off to who was desperate enough to buy it.

Since there are plenty of ROD 2-8-0s floating about the British system OTL, and many were shipped abroad [again] for the WW2, they would seem pretty plausable, and they were pretty good heavy freight (for all that Lybian oil??? ;) ) Oddly enough, the only two remaining ROD's are in Australia!
 
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El Pip said:
More interesting butterfly is what happens when people in the region can theoretically travel from Libya to Iraq to Saudi Arabia and all points in between with relative ease. Building such vast railroads elsewhere tended to produce migrations and big social changes as ideas flowed in with the new comers. Question is how much (if any) migrations will happen or indeed be allowed? And what will the effect of the movement or bans on movement be? Something for me to ponder.
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I wonder how building this railroad system will affect future wars that are certain to strike this region.
 
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El Pip said:
Thus it was with a due sense of trepidation that the civil service arranged the 1936 conference, wondering which previously British area of policy would be subject to increased 'co-operation'.
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:rofl:

The essential concept was to limit the electoral franchise by wealth and education, setting the bar such that the emerging black middle class passed it, but the majority did not, instead being represented by a limited number of 'Tribal MPs'.
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WTF is it with this board and everything I'm planning getting used by somebody else first?

I wonder about the results for South AFrica's Indians and coloreds, though.
 
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Another fascinating update, Pippy. Great opportunity to learn more about the Empire. The rail project sounds like something the empire would undertake and it would have wide-ranging ramifications.

Vann
 
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Duritz - I think the exact voting barrier will be the biggest political issue in the Dominion, London and the Governor-General on one side and the Rhodesian Prime Minister on the other. I foresee several big constitutional rows over the role of the Governor-General, how much power do they actually have in a Dominion? And what will the other Dominions make of it? Far from plain sailing.

And as for the trains, I will convert you heathens yet! :p

Sir Humphrey - True that. And I presume the RDOs probably worked on some pretty wonky rails in WW1 so they should be OK on a cheap Libyan railroad. Then once the oil starts flowing the railroad gets relaid probably. Using golden rails and platinum sleepers probably. ;)

Nathan Madien - Good point, having everything the same gauge and all connected up would make the railroads, and the key railway towns, vitally important.

But as to wars inevitably striking the region, I think that rather depends on who wins the battle in the Foreign Office. With Lawrence of Arabia clashing with Orde Wingate over the region it's all up for grabs, who knows how the Palestine Dominion will turn out when it emerges?

Faeelin - The problem is this board if full of people with similar interest looking at a similar period of history. There's only so many plausible solutions to the problems of the era.

South Africa will have to tweak the system somewhat, but then they have less problems with logical contortions and barefaced hypocrisy. For instance Indians were 'white' under apartheied, except when they weren't, and are now 'black' for the new government so get the 'historically disadvantaged people' schemes. Except the ones they are barred from for no good reason.

As such I'm sure they'll be some contrived regional based system that ensures no existing voter loses the franchise (a vital pre-condition if London is going to buy this) but doesn't allow in very many of the 'wrong sort'.

Vann the Red - Tripoli to Basra is the kind of thing the Victorian era British Empire would have done and thus is exactly what the Victorian Austen Chamberlain intends to do. One of the things I decided to do with this AAR is to see what happens if a bit of Victorian spine and stiff upper lip is injected into 1930s Britain, I think it will be mostly for the good but could have some unfortunate European side effects.
 
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El Pip said:
Duritz - I think the exact voting barrier will be the biggest political issue in the Dominion, London and the Governor-General on one side and the Rhodesian Prime Minister on the other. I foresee several big constitutional rows over the role of the Governor-General, how much power do they actually have in a Dominion? And what will the other Dominions make of it? Far from plain sailing.
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Sorry but I can't see the conservative Australian governments of the 30's doing much about anything in this regard. Maybe Canada will arc up but we'll do as we're told... until Curtin wins! ;) :D

Now, on with the war I say... :cool:

Dury.
 
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El Pip said:
Then once the oil starts flowing the railroad gets relaid probably. Using golden rails and platinum sleepers probably. ;)
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Or...you could take the oil money and invest it elsewhere.

Golden rails? We Americans just had a golden spike.
 
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Sir Humphrey - True that. And I presume the RDOs probably worked on some pretty wonky rails in WW1 so they should be OK on a cheap Libyan railroad. Then once the oil starts flowing the railroad gets relaid probably. Using golden rails and platinum sleepers probably.
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Why not convert the loco's to oil burners while your there!
 
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Duritz - While I agree I don't think anyone will get too bothered about what the Rhodesian voting arrangements are, I think other Dominions might worry about London interfering in the internal matters of a fellow Dominion. As I understand it Australia was playing funny games with Aborigine voting rights, if London sets the precedent of being able to decide who can or can't vote in Dominion elections that might un-nerve a few Australian politicians.

Nathan Madien - The evidence of oil rich states with strong monarchies suggests the money is rarely spent wisely. Compare Norway's state oil fund with the Sultan of Brunei's brother buying a super yacht called 'Tits'. So maybe not gold rails but I doubt that all the oil money will be invested with an eye to the good of Libya. :D

Sir Humphrey - Not a bad idea, particularly as I'm expecting British railways to go diesel earlier than OTL which will encourage the colonial railroads to do the same.
 
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El Pip said:
Sir Humphrey - Not a bad idea, particularly as I'm expecting British railways to go diesel earlier than OTL which will encourage the colonial railroads to do the same.
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So you are going to prevent British Rail or at the very least make it work?
 
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MAKE BRTISH RAIL WORK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!??????
That is a perfect definition of an Oxymoron....... really. *shakes head*
 
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