The Butterfly Effect: A British AAR

Chapter CXI: A Difference of Horizons​

In the ongoing Anglo-French arguments about protectionism and parochialism 1937 provided the French with what they believed to be the winning argument. In a year full of ‘world’ fairs and international expositions the highlight was arguably the Paris Exposition Internationale des Arts et Techniques dans la Vie Moderne (International Exposition dedicated to Art and Technology in Modern Life). The exposition was essentially five months of festivals and exhibitions strung together, the result being generally agreed to be very heavy on the arts but alarmingly light on technology. Of all the arts present it was perhaps the ‘black art’ of propaganda that was most prominent, the Soviets and the Germans leading the way with their colossal pavilions that dominated the main exposition site. The British effort was frankly poor, not only in comparison but on a fundamental level, overshadowed not only by the other great powers pavilions but even by other pavilions from within the British Empire, the Canadian pavilion in particular attracted many an admiring comment due almost entirely to the efforts of the French-Canadian community who had pulled out all the stops to impress on their return ‘home’. This lack of effort was seen as proof positive in France that parochial Britons did not look beyond her own borders, and thus were entirely to blame for poor state of Franco-British trade. The British view was, naturally, somewhat different.


In their defence the British embassy in Paris, and their masters in the Foreign Office, resorted to a less than subtle ‘No, you are the parochial ones’ argument. While it was not a very imaginative approach to take, that does not necessarily mean it was incorrect. As mentioned earlier 1937 was a busy year for international expositions and world’s fairs; Nazi Germany was busily demonstrating quite how large it’s inferiority complex was, organising not one but two exhibitions directly in opposition to the Paris Exposition, while in the United States Dallas and Cleveland were doing their bit to prove that events more than a year long were a bad idea, both cities dragging out their respective 1936 Expositions into loss making second years. For our purposes it is the ill-named Nagoya Pan-Pacific Peace Exposition that deserves attention, and not just for the irony of its name.

The Nagoya Pan-Pacific Peace Exposition was certainly an exposition in Nagoya and the presenting nations were gathered from across the Pacific, however where it fell down was the ‘peaceful’ part. While the attendees managed to avoid actual war breaking out during the exposition, though not without some effort, within 12 months of the event ending those same attendees would variously be embroiled in two wars, have been involved in half a dozen border ‘incidents’ and would have seen their militaries ‘regrettably’ or ‘accidentally’ sink an alarming number of foreign warships. There was more to the event than merely being ironic in hindsight however, even at the time the absence of peace and goodwill was noted, as was the cause; the decidedly undiplomatic actions of the host nation. While blatant propaganda was par for the course at an international exposition, Japan’s choice to push both her expansionist Toa shin Shitsujo (New Order in East Asia) foreign policy and her aggressively mercantilist “Yen Bloc” trade policy managed to offend pretty much every foreign observer.


In stark contrast to the dismal efforts of Paris the British pavilion in Nagoya had the full weight of both the Indian Office and Colonial Office behind it, with impressive results. This was not however a mere Westminster rivalry, both departments had motivations beyond ‘putting on a better show’ than their rivals in the Foreign Office, though that undoubtedly played a part. As Whitehall turned its attention to the Far East the efforts in Nagoya were intended to serve a variety of purposes; impressing the unstable but militaristic government of Siam, bolstering the efforts at corralling the Dutch into a defensive agreement in the Pacific to help replace the lost French Far Eastern forces and as a strong sign to Australia and New Zealand of London’s genuine interest in the region. To this end manufacturers, financiers and industrialists from across the Empire were encouraged to attend, with a special effort made to entice the nascent ‘Empire wide’ conglomerates such as Vickers, Imperial Chemical Industries, Ferguson-Brown-Massey and the trading powerhouse of Jardine, Matheson & Co. Even the cultural side was carefully judged, the artists involved asked to ‘consider’ the recent successes in the Abyssinian War as a source of inspiration, the resulting creations being dramatic, inspirational but above all unsubtle reminders of the fate of those who challenged the British Lion, or so it was hoped. In short it was everything the effort in Paris should have been but wasn’t.

The French government having decided not to make a strong effort in Nagoya avoided the embarrassment suffered by the British in Paris by the expedient of not even bothering to make a token effort. Quite simply there was no French pavilion at Nagoya or even an official ‘French’ delegation; instead the Governor-General of French Indochina sent a small delegation of officials and representatives of the many puppet ‘emperors’ that made up the colony. As with the British this was not an economic or logistical decision, for instance the Dutch government managed to put on a respectable show in both Nagoya and Paris, but a diplomatic choice. Heavily involved in the Spanish Civil War and still vigilant after the Rhineland affair the previous year Paris had decided to focus all efforts on Europe and l'Hexagone at the expense of the Far East. In contrast with Imperial concerns rising in Whitehall and a general disillusionment with Europe and European allies in the country Britain was increasingly looking to the Far East and disregarding the ‘continentalists’ pressing for re-engagement with Europe.

Despite their different directions both policies shared one key flaw; just because you ignore an issue does not mean the issue will ignore you. The ‘strike south’ faction of the Japanese military would not find Indochina any the less attractive if France ignored it, quite the contrary in fact. Equally while the British government, or elements of it, may have wished to disengage from Europe, that did not mean the powers, great and otherwise, of Europe would let go so easily.

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Notes:

An update! Sneaked onto the bottom of a page almost as if I didn’t want anyone to notice… I’ll be honest it wasn’t the dramatic return I hoped for, handily it isn’t the dramatic return so don't get your hopes up. I'm just tidying up an update I’d half written and needed to finish to clear the decks and complete part 2 of Franco-British relations.

The Paris Expo and the Nagoya Exhibition were both OTL events. The German and Soviet exhibits were both OTL as was the unfortunate architecture prize to Speer… The British effort in Paris was terrible, I saw one description of it as a cardboard box filled with cricket bats and a few nice books, and the Canadian effort was far better. Harder to find details on Nagoya, I do know Britain did attend with at least a half decent pavilion but France didn’t bother to go, instead sending a colonial delegation. TTL I’ve beefed up the British contribution to reflect Britain looking East more than OTL but kept France as distracted.

In true Butterfly Effect fashion I found out a string of interesting events I wanted to shoe horn in but couldn’t without doubling the size of the update. Instead I’ve gone for tantalising teases, hopefully, which I will try and expand on next time I have to write about the Japanese navy and Japanese economy.

Up next I'm disregarding everything I said before (sorry about that) and finally doing some plot for something other than Spain, which will be nice.

The Hotchkiss H35 was not a war winning wonder weapon, but in the summer of 1937 it gave a very good impersonation of one. After a series of bloody defeats the Monarchist Armies in southern Spain had abandoned any attempt to fight the H35s in open country and instead focused on ambushes and city fighting. In this endeavour they received the dubious assistance of the German government who supplied several batteries of obsolete 3.7 cm Pak L/45s, an early 1920s design complete with wooden wheels for horse transport. The L/45 was technically capable of penetrating the armour on a H35, but only from point blank range and even then only the thinner armour on the hull, putting in on a par with the near suicidal ‘Flandin Cocktail’ (or petrol bombs as everyone bar the propagandist called them). That said it did bring the Monarchists a brief respite and even a few tactical victories, H35 crews used to being invulnerable obligingly charging dug in guns and blundering into ambushes. Sadly for the Monarchists this did not last, the surviving members of the recently renamed 1st Armoured “El Carpio” Division (and their French ‘advisers’) did not waste the experience from those expensive lessons. As the division adopted its tactics, and the remaining crews struck a better balance between aggression and caution, the Republicans were soon able to re-establish their dominance.

Despairing of the L/45 the Falangists turned on the German ambassador, Wilhelm Faupel, and demanded something better. In this they were to be disappointed, the Wehrmacht staff had noticed the French tanks shrugging of the best the L/45 could throw at it and duly began gently panicking. The ‘anti-tank’ Panzer III was still stuck in development hell and the new PaK 36 anti-tank gun was only just entering general service, basically there was very little in the German arsenal that could actually stop a H35 and the German military leadership wanted all of it on the French border, leaving nothing to send to Spain. This left Hedilla and the Falangists with little choice but to turn to the British, much to the disgust of the German ambassador and the disquiet of Berlin. The one hope for German influence in southern Spain was British indifference, a not entirely hopeless cause.

Initially the appearance of the H35 had not aroused much concern in the British mission to Spain, certainly the Royal Armoured Corps contingent were interested in this new tank but only from a technical standpoint. As it was clearly being sent to the South, and as its abilities were then a mystery, it was put down as a curiosity but nothing more. The first big Republican victories in the south prompted a re-assessment and the supply, after some haggling, of the then brand new Boys anti-tank rifle to the Falangist armies. The complete failure of the Boys to make even a dent in a H35 and the resumption of the surging advance of the “El Carpio” division after it adapted to the L/45 finally roused the British; setbacks in the South were acceptable (even desirable, from a long term political view point) but total defeat was not.


The decisive point was the Fall of Cordoba; though lacking the defensive lines found around Madrid or Bilbao, Cordoba had been well fortified and offered the defenders all the advantages of urban combat, this made the handsome and swift Republican victory all the more unnerving. British policy had been to limit supplies to Spain of obsolete equipment for financial (both the revenue and the savings on disposal/storage costs) and security (protecting ‘advanced’ technologies) reasons. After the Fall of Cordoba this policy changed, it became clear that the French decision to supply the H35 had raised the stakes and Britain had to either escalate in turn or risk forfeiting her influence in Spain. To the disquiet of the ‘dove’ faction in the government the cabinet decided to match the French raise; the Monarchists would get their modern anti-tank gun. Though they did not realise it at the time, the British government was starting down the slippery slope that would see modern monoplanes, tank prototypes and other experimental weapons flowing into Spain before the end of the year.

The obvious choice was the Ordnance QF 2-pounder, an infinitely more capable weapon than the L/45 that fired a larger shell, faster and more accurately. Though this came at some cost, the 2-pdr was slightly larger and far heavier than its continental equivalents, the result was a weapon that could kill a H35 at 1000 yards and penetrate even the tougher turret at well over 800 yards. Equally importantly, thanks to a rapid production ramp up at the start of the Abyssinian War the production lines were in place and there were plenty of guns available. The only issue stopping it's shipment had been one of political will, once that had been overcome the gun was soon on its way to Spain. Given the crisis that would engulf the issue it is worth noting that while the escalation was not universally popular, neither was it particularly controversial. Opposition to escalation was generally confined to the usual suspects; the pacifist who didn’t want Britain to even have arms, let along supply them to the others; the neutral faction who didn’t want Britain to have anything to do with Spain and finally those who did want British involvement in Spain, but supporting the Republicans not the Monarchists. While all three groups issued many a doom laden warning, none of them managed to predict the particular crisis that would engulf the 2-pdr’s entry into the Spanish Civil War.

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Two week between updates? That's not to shabby at all. Though the fact that this entire update was supposed to be expressed in the single line "Worried by the success of the H35 Britain agreed to supply modern anti-tank guns to Spain" does explain the slow progress of this AAR. Still the exciting consequences of sending modern guns to Spain will show up next time (*fingers crossed*)

All tech is OTL, including that very funky French 4x6 truck, some of the French APCs of the time were very clever indeed. If only they'd been reliable, produced in decent numbers and used properly... On which note fans of French tanks may be pleased to note those funds and ideas flowing back to France, if they learn those lessons all Paris will have to do is start awarding contracts on technical and industrial ability, not political clout, and they may get a few decent armoured divisions!