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Chapter XXXIII: Straws In The Wind.
Chapter XXXIII: Straws In The Wind.

The news of Cunningham's victory and Gort's successful conclusion of the North Africa campaign returned to a Britain quite different from the nation that had sent them. The massive government spending on war materials and supplies, combined with the first fruits of the investment heavy 'Keyes Plan', had substantially boosted the economy and provided jobs where they were most needed; the industrialised Midlands and the north of England. While the depression was far from over, it would take more than a few months spending to undo the damage done, the worst depths had been plumbed and the darkest periods passed. In addition to the economic changes there were the more obvious changes in the public mood as confidence, both in the economy and the country as a whole, returned on the back of the war and the mounting victories, an outcome few would have expected scant months earlier.

The Great War had left its mark on almost every community in the country and even by the 1930s Lord Halifax's 'peace with honour' movement were merely the most high profile of the many pacifist organisations demanding that "The war to end all wars" would be just that, for Britain at least. With such wide spread anti-war feeling a strong reaction to the war was expected by the government: dissent in parliament, protests in the streets and the media up in arms. In the event when Italy declared war the press was united in it's call, in many cases demand, for the vigorous prosecution of the conflict and in general the public rallied for King and country. That is not to say there weren't dissenting voices but they were in the minority and far outnumbered by those displaying an almost jingoistic enthusiasm that the war be fought and won.

The fact that it was Italy who started the war, after what the popular press called a 'dastardly and treacherous sneak attack', is certainly a factor. The Suez raid could not, in fact, have gone much worse for Mussolini, he had angered the British public without doing any military damage and while he had completely surprised the enemy he had also surprised the majority of his own military and plunged his country into a war it was ill prepared for. For the British public the raid, and the last minute intervention by HMS Diomede, had turned the entire incident into a heroic, portentous victory and one that required Britain avenge such underhand aggression. The other oft overlooked point factor is that the Abyssinian War was, from the British view point at least, more a Victorian era 'colonial' war than anything else. Aside from the obvious African connections the war was markedly different from the country's experience in the Great War; the army contained a comparatively small British contingent so there were few 'military' families or communities, there was no threat of invasion even if things went badly and, most importantly there had been no shortage of victorious naval clashes and rapid advances to keep morale and confidence high.

It was against this broadly positive picture that the first warning signs of impending crisis became apparent and, in one of life's ironies, it was the cause of Britain emergence from one crisis that allowed the seeds of the next to be sown. The war may have been a boost to the economy and improved morale but it also provided an opportunity for rivals and enemies to take advantage of the distraction it caused. The South African offer of a military mission to East Africa had been under suspicion ever since Hertzog had made it, question being asked as to why such an avowed Boer was offering to help the British Empire. Although accepted, the presence of General Jan Smuts at its head doing much to calm nerves in the War Office, the mystery lingered on well into April. It was not until after the mission arrived on the 20th of April that the real reason for the offer became clear, for Hertzog the point was that the mission was sent not what it did when it got there. The South African mission contained, along with Smuts, many other officers turned parliamentarians who, in the main, were pro-British and affiliated with the South African People's Party wing of the coalition United Party. For Hertzog this was a golden opportunity to put his own National Party into an unassailable position politically, in essence he planned to alter the Representation of Natives Act, which had been passing through parliament when war broke out, to disenfranchise SAPP voters thus ensuring his own party could govern unaided.

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General Jan Smuts, Statesman and General he had left Hertzog in sole charge of the coalition trusting Hertzog would not pass controversial or biased legislation in his absence. That trust would be utterly betrayed scant days after Smuts established his HQ in East Africa.

South African politics had become intensely polarised, hard-line Boers solidly voting National Party while the British, 'Coloured' (defined as anybody not white or a native) and the few eligible Cape Town natives supported the SAPP. As these two groups roughly cancelled each other out the balance of power was held by the so called 'Moderate Boers', Boers who did not agree with the naked prejudice of the National Party or their desire for an independent Boer Republic as soon as possible. For Hertzog this was an unconscionable compromise, forcing him to moderate his views just to gain power and limiting his options once he was in office. The act had been intended as a tiding up procedure, formalising the position of the 'Tribal' MPs who represented most native areas and confirming the historic right of all in the Cape Province, the most liberal and 'British' province, to vote regardless of their colour. Hertzog swept that away, slashing the number of 'Tribal' MPs, removing the proposed representative council and, most controversially, imposing a whites-only voting restriction on all provinces, bar the Cape which was not considered Boer homeland and in any case was strongly pro-British. The cumulative effect of these changes would be to reduce the SAPP and indeed all opposition groups, to their Cape Province strongholds and the few 'Tribal' MPs while the National Party would hold the rest of the country unchallenged.

Whatever the British governments views, and the condemnation was far from universal, this was an internal South African matter and one they could not interfere with. General Smuts and his colleagues resigned themselves to not getting back in time, Hertzog had waited until they were as far away as possible and was rushing the act through, and threw themselves into the East Africa campaign. It was not until the act passed and it appeared Hertzog's audacious political coup had succeeded that the crisis erupted; The Governor General, the Earl of Clarendon, seeing the bill for what it was used his reserve powers to withhold Royal Assent, blocking the act from becoming law. As a former under-secretary in the office for Dominion Affairs Clarendon knew his constitutional position was secure and believed, like Lord Byng in the 1926 Canadian crisis, history wuuld judge him correct in invoking his powers. While he was indeed constitutionally correct, the reserve powers of the monarch, and by extension the Governor-General, existed for just such an occasion, he had failed to foresee the full political and diplomatic fall out of his actions. Hertzog, naturally furious at this impediment to his scheme, attempted to rally support both domestically and from the other dominions, hoping Earl Clarendon would fold under pressure and agree to giving assent.

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James Barry Hertzog, possibly the most unprincipled and opportunistic politician of his era. His manipulations and desperate attempts to avoid their consequences would plunge the Empire into crisis.

Predictably South Africa split along its traditional Boer-The Rest fault line, both side mobilising their supporters at rally and counter-rally, clashes between supporters getting increasingly bad natured. Internationally opinions were less clear cut, the Dominion governments torn between condemnation of interference in the domestic matters of a fellow Dominion and the acceptance that Hertzog had acted unacceptably, indeed undemocratically, and there had to be some constitutional brake to stop him. Earl Clarendon did much to ease their decision by stating his opposition was not to the bill but the method with which it had been passed and he would of give assent to the bill after the whole parliament had been able to vote on so major a change to the country. With fears suitably calmed the Dominion governments united in support of Clarendon and against Hertzog, even the most pro-independence republicans forced to concede that in this case the issue was more important than the principle. Isolated diplomatically and having alienated enough wavering MPs and marginal 'Moderate Boer' voters to ensure his defeat in both a vote of no-confidence and the election that would force Hertzog's back was against the wall. He was a desperate man and it was events in the UK that gave him the chance to show just how desperate he was.

In Britain King George V has suffered another, more serious, bronchitis attack and was once again gravelly ill. With the war de facto won the King's sense of duty was satisfied and the sheer force of will that kept him going through the previous weeks began to desert him. Lord Dawson informed the cabinet that this would be the final act for the King, the question was when not if he passed on. In the intervening weeks King George had not been idle, in between regular, if short, morale raising trips around the country he had been talking with senior politicians of all backgrounds about his prime concern; the Prince of Wales and his unsuitability as heir.

The great irony of the situation was that the opposition was not to Edwards accession per se, while he didn't appear prime monarch material neither had Edward VII until upon the throne and there was a hope he would settle down after his coronation. The opposition was to his choice of consort, Wallis Simpson, quite possibly the most inappropriate choice it was possible to make. Possessing enough undesirable qualities to offend almost every strata of society, the twice married American was known by Special Branch to be having relationships with other men, was suspected of being 'too close' to the German ambassador Joachim von Ribbentrop and had alienated any remaining possible supporters with her almost limitless ambition and lust for power and money.

In his final weeks the King pulled together a coalition from politics, the church and even included the more trustworthy media barons. Edward would have to be removed from the unhealthy influence of Mrs Simpson and find himself a more suitable match. While orchestrating such a conspiracy against ones own son may seem cold, cruel even, it was the ultimate expression of the King's creed; Country before Family, Duty over Love. The question was whether his son would follow that creed and put the country and the empire before his love for Mrs Simpson.

--
Up Next; Constitutional crisis in two countries and things only get more complicated as other opportunists jump in while the Empire is distracted.
 
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Llywelyn said:
Of course, I also like the naval updates - it's one of the benefits of good and well-thought-out writing: you can like lots of it. I just hope we'll see the same kind of attention to tactical detail once we get to the land wars. Even though that means this AAR will still be going strong long into HOIs 5 & 6...

j.

First off: Git. I was hoping for top spot on this page for the update. That would have been impressively swish.

Second: The early stages of the North African campaign had tactical detail for land battles, the later stages however were too much of a pushover to be interesting and hence were skipped. Rest assured if I can drag a good update out of it detail will return.

Third: My current estimates is: ~16 months for ~4 months in game. Thus, assuming the same rate of progress, to do the whole 12years to take me to 1948 will take somewhere in the region of 50 years. No rush then.

Fourth: New Chapter in Index, I tell you this as I doubt many check the index, and believe the title is suitably portentous of the upcoming updates.
 
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GeneralHannibal said:
I know :). But I'm an odd sort of fellow ;).

Seconded. :)

But the next few updates sound magnificent, expecially if they include The USA, Spain, Italy, the UK, France, or Central and Eastern Europe.
Seconded. :)

And I think they will :cool:
Seconded. :D

Of course, I also like the naval updates - it's one of the benefits of good and well-thought-out writing: you can like lots of it. I just hope we'll see the same kind of attention to tactical detail once we get to the land wars. Even though that means this AAR will still be going strong long into HOIs 5 & 6...

j.
 
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El Pip said:

a) The political updates really are my favorite, even though it's largely the military situations that cause the changes.
b) Were the British South Africaners really so progressive?
c) and the Boers so evil?
d) Good stuff. :D

j.
 
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Llywelyn said:
a) The political updates really are my favorite, even though it's largely the military situations that cause the changes.
b) Were the British South Africaners really so progressive?
c) and the Boers so evil?
d) Good stuff. :D

j.

Well the Anglo-Africans were more urban and well... British. Racial views at the time (prior also to mass immigration in the UK) were more "White man's burden" than actively racist ie. "The Fuzzy Wuzzies may be a bunch of savages but if we educate them, convert them to the old C of E and teach them the first few lines of God Save the King they'll be alright". Though to say it was purely it meritocratic would be quite naive.

The Boers were more rural and their heritage is based on finding the 'promised land' in South Africa. Consider modern Israel and America's Manifest Destiny for loose comparisons on their views towards the natives ;) . The evenutal goal of Apartheid was ultimately akin to the Aryanisation of the Economy under Nazi Germany, ie remove the Africans/Jews completely from everyday life. The more positive image broadcast by the South Africans was they were creating racial harmony by creating seperate but parrallel black and white societies, of course in reality white S. Africa got the better end of the stick by a pretty wide margin.
 
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Good, if far from simple questions.

2) Cape Province was not especially progressive of itself, but it did track changes in Britain fairly closesly thus the voting arrangments were the same complete with lack of racial discrimination (in terms of getting a vote at least). The Cape was however far from representative of the other provinces, it had been sparcely populated prior to European arrival and those few tribes that were present had been driven of in the intervening decades. Thus universal sufferage didn't unduly change the political balance of power or effect the outcome.

3) The Boers must be judged at least partly evil. The No.14 Representation of Natives Act was a real act passed about that time and was one of the foundation stones of aparthied setting a precedent that certaing groups could be denied votes or represented by a comission not in parliament. The act was also the first of a string of electorial rigging tricks culminating in the decision to allow only the white males of Namibia, not even the white women, to vote on SA becoming a Republic, the vote being 52% to 48% in favour only because of Namibian votes.

Having said that they were at least honest, universal sufferage across the country would lead to majority black rule and the end of white influence, let alone power, in the country. Just look at modern SA where there hasn't been a white minister since the first 'Unity' government after aparthied, that was the 'nightmare vision' of the National Party who felt justified in doing pretty much anything to avoid it. Whether modern reality reflects what would have happened back in the 1930s if universal sufferage was introduced is another matter.

So the Britishers weren't that progressive in my view, mainly because non-white voting in the Cape wasn't an issue for them. It's easy to have an 'enlightened' permissive attitude to an issue that doesn't affect you at all. The Boers were at least honest in their views and took the flack for a policy that had the tactit support of the British who were just as reluctant to see political power disapear from their grasp.

In summary, the British weren't that good, the Boer not pure evil. Except Herztog, he was a git of the first water.
 
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A good analysis, but this:

El Pip said:
Just look at modern SA where there hasn't been a white minister since the first 'Unity' government after aparthied,

Is quite wrong. There's at least three or four white cabinet members curently, (Including the finance minister, I believe) and I'm sure there have been quite a few more over the last few years.
 
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Hertzog could use some “inheritance powder.”
 
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Very interesting update, EP. Are you portending SA leaving the dominion and perhaps ending up aligned with Germany? That would be an interesting change and quite a shipping threat.

Vann
 
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Vincent Julien said:
Is quite wrong. There's at least three or four white cabinet members curently, (Including the finance minister, I believe) and I'm sure there have been quite a few more over the last few years.

You are indeed correct and I have been misinformed. Now I come to consider it I probably shouldn't have trusted the gentlemen who told me this. As mid-level mining engineers they were member of the group which has lost most under the ANC and so probably weren't inclined to give accurate assessments of the country or it's politics.

Clearly I will have to apply the same level of checks to supplementary analysis as to the main updates. Is there no end to the level of work required?

Jape - There will be much interception of events, a crisis for one is an opportunity for another.

Llywelyn - And so have I. :D

Judas Maccabeus - The vultures are circling and while the Imperial Lion is far from carrion it may not yet be strong enough to deter those looking for scraps.

Fulcrumvale - Personally I think he just needs a damn good thrashing.
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Vann the Red - Hertzog doesn't have popular support for such move, the 1960 Republican referendum was only sneaked through by cooking the electoral books, back in 1936 Republican views were in a minority. No Hertzog will need something more cunning than just splitting from the Empire.
 
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Great AAR El Pip, definitely one of the best that I’ve read so far. I read all the posts in one sitting and I’m eagerly awaiting the next update. I’m just wondering since Britain has intervened against Italy with regard to Abyssinia will Hitler try and reoccupy the Rhineland now that Britain/League of Nations is more willing to take action? And if the Rhineland is occupied will the French throw the Wehrmacht out?

Haarken
 
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I finally get back from holiday and there is an update ready for me to read :rolleyes:

you may not update much but at least you do at the right time :D

oh and great update
 
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El Pip: ...The question was whether his son would follow that creed and put the country and the empire before his love for Mrs Simpson.

personally, i vote that the Prince of Wales does both ! ! that is, advise a few leaders (including his Father) that he has the situation in control and plans to use Mrs Simpson as a counter agent against certain foreign powers... ;)

awesome update ! ! :cool:

El Pip:
...Llywelyn - And so have I. :D

indeed ! ! that is one thing that makes AARs such wonderful reading ! ! :D
 
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Intriguing politics. The British royal succession seems the dominant issue here, but who knows how wide consequences the situation of South Africa will have? Excellent update once again, do please keep this AAR going.
 
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A fine and intriguing update: how would it be if Winston makes one of his personal interventions? ...Invites Hertzog to London for 'Resolution of the current South African Crisis', draws his Webley, and shoots the bounder dead in front of the cabinet? :rofl:

More updates eagerly awaited!
 
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Once more a fine and well timed effort on your part with the update at the top of the page....I'm speechless!! :eek:







That said....it looks like you are angling a reversal of allies with the events unfolding as they are.....if Edward defies King George by sticking to his guns and the link between Mrs Simpson and the Nazis...add a secret plot between Hitler and Herzog....an Axis backed coup where Churchill accidentally, brutally cuts his head off while combing his hair and Edward is regaled as the 'new leader'...Mussolini, with a seemingly pro-british ally on the North Eastern border looks elsewhere for an ally to repay the shame of British impudence and turns to Soviets? or America? and becomes a platform for bringing their early involvement in Europe? Or do you have something equally intriguing yet much more convoluted up your sleeve?

I'm gripped!! I don't care if it takes you until 2050 (by which time I will be long into retirement and probably meekly writing my own poor version of an AAR). Excellent update old chap! Cigar?
 
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