No, I don't entirely disagree with you at all :^) Pinpointing when this or that happened is very difficult...if we can't figure it out today, with a fairly complete knowledge of what all sides were doing, imagine what is what like back then! "So, are we Spanish, rebels, patriots, Argentineans, or the people of the Rio de la Plata?"
The problem comes from the while way Spain set up its New World bureaucracy. Instead of being part of Spanish territory, each viceroyalty (New Spain, New Granada, etc) was considered to be its own quasi-nation right from the start. Yes, they had to be 1/5th of their income to Spain, and Spain made all the rules...
But people born there were not considered to be Spanish. This is doubly true for people who were not 100% European-descent...
The viceroy could "respectfully decline to comply" with whatever the monarch said, and the legislative branch was (until near the very end) directly elected by local elite = self-government
Colonial militia had to defend themselves, as the Spanish army rarely set foot in the New World after the initial thrust
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After much soul searching :^) ...
1. Everything belongs to Spain in 1815 - Spain should not have a single division in the New World and MAYBE give it a few at home. Very weak navy. It should not be able to put troops into the New World for a while
a. Events for massive militancy and revolts in La Plata and Venezuela; minor revolts in Mexico and the rest of Gran Colombia
b. As soon as the capitals of what will be Venezuela and Argentina fall to the rebels, make Gran Colombia (in Venezuela only) and Argentina independent and at war with Spain. They should each get crazy good generals in Bolivar and San Martin
c. Spain should not have much of an army in the New World, so both nations should have no trouble going into Colombia and Chile, respectively
d. As the capitals of what would be South America nations fall, trigger events to annex Colombia into Gran Colombia and free Chile as an Argentinian ally and satellite
e. More events to annex Ecuador and free Peru as an ally and satellite of Argentina. Note, however, that except for the coast of Peru, everything else in that region belongs to Spain
f. Have an event for Bolivar and San Martin to meet in Ecuador, and for San Martin to retire => Argentina makes peace with Spain, and Chile is now at peace and independent; Peru now becomes an ally and satellite of Gran Colombia
g. A final event to give the Spanish territory to Bolivia and Peru, where applicable...both remain satellites of Gran Colombia
h. In the next few years, have events to destroy Gran Colombia (assasination of Sucre, Bolivar can't get allies, etc)...Peru and Bolivia become free, Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela break off
i. If I recall correctly, also around this time Paraguay and Uruguay establish independence from Argentina, and Uruguay becomes a satellite of Brazil. Need to check this
j. For Mexico, just make it independent after the Spanish event that has Ferdinand recognize the liberal contitution of 1812. Mexico should immediately break out into numerous revolts against Iturbide such that it collapses the government
k. Brazil should be a dominion, events should free it, etc etc like I went over before :^)
l. Final note, getting toward 1830s, the new republics should be given tons of money by the British and French (but especially the British). I don't think Victoria does a good job at all of modeling the plight of the Latin American nations, but if you could somehow illustrate the early promise and boom and the later complete and utter collapse of the local economies you would earn a gold star in my book :^)
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I just cannot stress enough that Spain was in no position to stop the revolts from happening or succeeding - if anyone was going to stop Bolivar or San Martin, it would have been royalists in South America, not anyone was Spain. Same thing with Portugal - you have to remember that in January 1815 neither the Spanish nor Portuguese kings were even in Iberia! :^)
-Matt