Minister Of Finance, Planing And Production
THE BUDGET
After scouting the room with a quick glance and noticing that nobody was willing to speak next, elbasto knew that an awkward silence was threatening the momentum of the meeting. So, clearing his throat, he started his report.
“Ejem… Gentlemen, it is an honor to be here addressing you in my quality of this Nation’s Minister of Finance. As his Excellency pointed out just a moment ago, we have a lot to do, short time to do it and limited resources to reach our goals.
To begin with let me give you a short briefing in Economics that will make easier the follow up of the rest of the meeting (and hopefully many others). After the world’s market implosion in 1929 the Romanian economy had to restructure herself into shape. In order to do so we acquired a new currency, the “LEU”. This currency, as most of the world’s bank notes, has changed its value several times in recent years (hopefully we’ll stop this soon). Still, we weren’t able to fully recover our currency’s pre-war value. So for a better administration and control of the public finances we started using a new Index; the “Industrial Installed Capability and Composition” (to which we will address from now onwards as IICC or IC for short). I believe that all of you are familiar to this concept by now. This will allow a better understanding of the financial reports to all of us (even the ones with a degree on economics).”
Rising from the table,
elbasto went to the back of his sit, next to it over a tripod that nobody had noticed before (but they had barely noticed him, so that was not an issue) there were several graphics.
The Present Situation:
“Now to begin with the briefing on our economy’s health (and projections) let me call your attention to the vanilla folders in front of your respective sits labeled “National Budget (1936)” (pending of approval of course). Inside them you will find a copy of this short briefing. At first view you can see our delicate economical situation even though we have one of the strongest economies in the Balkans.
Now, we could improve this situation by an ambitious and expensive, yet VERY lucrative, expansion plan. We have enough room to do so as we are counting with a small but still significant surplus on the materials needed to feed our industry. Also, considering the present political situation the price we would be paying, should you gentlemen choose to implement this plan as soon as possible, will be cheaper than starting it in 1937 after the elections had taken place.
The 1936 Plan:
This plan foresees an expansion on our IC in the less developed areas of the country, an aggressive commercial policy and satisfying the army’s and air force’s immediate needs (for maintenance and refitting mostly).
The price: 13 IC.
The funding:
The Central Bank’s Reserves (also known as supplies).
Recent year’s surplus have allowed us to fill our arcs with some cash (not that we could have too much of it really) and current reserves will allow us to meet our needs, and therefore civilian ones, for a maximum of 640 days (almost two full fiscal years). We have a huge need for money and controlling the value of currency puts a huge restrain in our economy (15.5 IC, over 30% of our whole Gross Domestic Product) mainly due to the huge size of our glorious armed forces.
Even with some moderate production and refitting of military units we could make it until the end of this first plan, scheduled for early 1937.
May I use this oportunity to call the attention to our military staff and advice a rationing of the army's supplies unless you are planning an invasion or expecting one...
(after saying this without much thinking, elbasto automatically touched his throat, checking if it was still there).
This action will
free 22.6 IC from the budget to be used in production, R&D or, should they arise, civilian needs.
In the world market we should undertake an aggressive policy, buying 40 tons of fossil fuel (from this point onwards, coal) and construction materials (from this point onwards, steel) per day using our oil reserves in order to build up an adequate reserve of these first two. Any further need of “non-conventional” elements (from this point onwards, rubber) could be obtained by converting oil and gas (which we have plenty of).
Politically, a renewal of the members of this ministry is planned for 1937. After sending several government officers of this ministry abroad (mainly to Germany, the U.S. and the U.K.) for some post-grade studies they will be available to join our staff on January of1937.
The Results:
So we would be using 26% of our resources all through out 1936 in order to welcome 1937 with an increase of 38% in our economy.
Our GDP should be 69 IC at the beginning of next year.
The spending:
“We at the ministry would like to have a close look at the needs of other departments. Assigning resources is not entirely our responsibility but a memorandum will be sent to most members after the meeting in order to give them some… ehm… possible guidance should they need any. If this is the case, please don't hessitate to contact me or any other department official.”
A short description of the neighbors:
“Well in the short term let me tell you that we have an average economy compared to the rest of Balkans countries but small room left for expanding it (without getting too dependant on the unstable world market).
Still, our neighboring countries do posses a big economical threat in the mid term:
a) Yugoslavia: with 53 IC, lots of raw materials and an average army that consumes 20% of the government's funds (ours uses 31%) limiting their expenses. This country is the biggest threat in the mid term. In one year they could easily out pass us.
b) Hungary: Their 50 IC are a threat, but they can’t produce enough elements to expand much further. Still, their army only demands a marginal 7.5% of their resources, so we could expect them to produce more units.
c) Bulgaria: Thanks to a careful planning this country counts with a total of 35 IC. Yet their expansion capabilities are also limited by their reserves. Their army only uses 12% of their national budget.
d) Greece: with 36 IC, not many resources and a moderate army their best expectative is to slowly march into an eventual economical meltdown.
I will leave further descriptions on their military proyections and capacities to trained professionals (elbasto said pointing at the ministries of intelligence and security and hoping not to have overextended his report in this area).
After that short monologue elbasto took a long dip from his glass of water. He was used to giving lectures but not to have such a dangerous public. “Even if the worst happens (he thought for himself) we could make this country strong enough to resist the designs of even the most maniac of the rulers.” But that was about to be seen.
After a quick visual survey on the room everybody seemed to be feeling either ok with the briefing or too busy looking at their folders. The ministry sat down with a “job-well-done” smile on his face.
"Any questions?" (he politely asked to the audience before being summoned by his thoughts).