Lamps Before the Wind - A Japanese Revival

GeneralHannibal: indeed

Discomb: I could. but on the flip side, they still have 290+ divisions. remember, for all my victories, they still have the capacity to produce more units than I can destroy. and what if they had a trump card that involved peace with the Russians, allowing them to shift all those 290+ existing divisions against me? at any rate, Japan can't just dictate to China; the imbalance of power between them in favor of China is far too great

I Killed Kenny:

Discomb: I know exactly what I'm doing, don't you worry

update in a bit!

We awoke at 0700 in the morning on March 6th, the second day of the peace settlement, to be briefed by Hirota Koji and Oka Takazumi about our own stance on Korea and the likely Chinese reactions and counterproposals. We were to present them with simply a row of stone faces, we could not be seen to even consider their statements. Though this advice may appear strange to some, it made sense to me; from a military point of view, only by ignoring certain enemy movements and imposing one’s will on the flow of the campaign and force the enemy to react, rather than simply reacting to the enemy, can a commander win. My only thought was perhaps though that we were taking this idea too far, but nevertheless I trusted Hirota Koji. We decided amongst ourselves that, though others may contribute, it would be Hirota Koji who would speak for our delegation as this sort of foreign relations was precisely what he had been trained for.

The negotiations began at 0900. Hirota Koji began this bout of negotiations by introducing the topic of Korea. He suggested that Korea be detached from China and transferred to be sovereign Japanese territory. The Chinese reacted forcefully to this and suggested that China retain Korea, given that we had failed to conquer Korea—twice. Though this statement, which may have been a taunt, stung, if the Chinese were hoping to get a rise out of us they were sorely mistaken as they were met by a row of silent, stony faces. Through Hirota Koji, Okamura brought to attention the fact that the Chinese armies in southern China had been all but annihilated and that all but a minor guarding force could be sent northward to destroy Li Zongren’s army in Manchuria and Korea as well, if needed. Somewhat unsure of himself, Chen Gongbo looked over to Jiang Baili, his chief of staff, who nodded back to him. Chen Gongbo indicated acceptance of this likelihood. He then put forward the concept of a single Korea, demilitarized and neutral. To my mind, untrained in politics as it was, this seemed quite fair but Hirota Koji quickly refused, which confused me.

As by this time it was past 1200, the conference broke for lunch, having accomplished nothing, which was slightly depressing. Dejected, I was one of the last to leave the chamber but then quickly caught up with Hirota Koji outside and asked him why he had so quickly rejected the final offer. His reply was that, as China was not only much larger and still more powerful than Japan—both politically and militarily—but also closer to Korea and this made any ‘neutral’ Korea impossible as within a no doubt surprisingly short span of time Korea would become a Chinese satellite in all but name. When he explained the situation in such terms, I understood and fully agreed with him. I also mentioned that I also then understood why he decided to dedicate a whole day to Korea, as it was precisely because of the length of such sensitive negotiations.

I then went off to find Zhang Xueliang and convinced him to allow me an impromptu interview of his role before and during the Second Sino-Japanese War. It came as a surprise to me that he was originally loyal to Chiang Kai-shek but his allegiance changed when a Japanese spy and, later, assassin, Toru Kioshi, rescued him in haphazard fashion—though perhaps ‘haphazard’ is too kind a word, Toru Kioshi disappeared and Zhang Xueliang was forced to spend two or three months living in the open or with sympathetic peasants as he fled southward, toward the frontline between the Nationalist and Guangxi Cliques. At this point, he pledged his service to Li Jishen and had been serving the empire ever since; he fought well against the Japanese and had commanded an army group for an invasion of Burma and India that never materialized due to Li Jishen’s assassination at the hands of Toru Kioshi. I found all this incredibly fascinating and made my interest in writing a work on how Li Jishen guided the Guangxi Clique to an empire and world power all the greater. Too soon, however, it was time for the second round of negotiations to begin.

This second conference began with Chen Gongbo welcoming everyone back to the table and hoping that the next hours would witness a breakthrough regarding Korea. With that, he sat down and motioned for Hirota Koji to begin whenever he was ready. Hirota began with a suggestion for partitioning Korea in half and transferring each half directly to either China or Japan—the north to China, the south to Japan. It seemed to me that the military men on both sides of the table were seriously considering this proposal for a number of reasons; it allowed the two armies direct control over the border and whatever facilities might be left after the fighting. However, primarily for us, Korea would be an outpost at the mercy of the still potent Chinese navy, which had not yet lost a single of its capital ships to aerial attack, as it would have to be supplies primarily by convoy. This in turn would make Korea an outpost easily crushed by the massive Chinese army.

Fortunately for us, however, the Chinese refused for political reasons: they could not allow any sovereign Japanese territory on the mainland without a rebellion from their still somewhat militant populace. It amazed us that even with our repeated victories over the Chinese armies and our conquest of many of the major population centers the rest of the population still considered resistance as a viable option; however, looking back on it now, it is an understandable situation. After all, was there not precedent? Had Japan not conquered major population centers between 1936 and 1940 and yet lost the war in the end? Hirota Koji seemed slightly put off by this refusal but quickly regained his balance, especially once it was made known to him that we, the generals, in fact were pleased with this due to the disadvantages remarked upon above. Wracking his brain, Hirota Koji turned to another proposition along the same vein as his previous.

He proposed that Korea be divided in two, but rather than it being sovereign Chinese or Japanese territory, it belong to the Koreans themselves. The north of the peninsula would make up a client state to China, the south a satellite to Japan. After some discussion amongst themselves, the Chinese agreed with the proposal! By this time, the second conference had been going on for some four hours, the time being 1700. Perhaps they were as tired (of Korea) as Hirota Koji was and simply wanted to end the negotiations for the day having accomplished something, or perhaps they were honestly accepting of the proposal. Chen Gongbo mentions in his own memoirs that the idea appealed to his tired mind as the best compromise, which clears little as it implies that he might have thought otherwise had he not been tired. Nevertheless, negotiations on the second day ended on a pleasant note. Each party removed itself to its living quarters for preparation for the next day of conferences.

At our compound, Hirota Koji announced that tomorrow he planned to deal with the enormous geographical question of Southeast Asia—that is, Siam and Indochina. He did not expect it to be as easy as Korea, in some ways, but also not as difficult, in other ways. However, after his tactical victory today, he seemed in relatively high spirits, if quite tired, and simply left it at that. The second grueling day of negotiations had ended.

canonized: thanks!

Kurt_Steiner: yup

Discomb: I, in fact, already do have a nuke. but its a non-miniaturized version so it wouldn't fit in a rocket (and I don't have any of those anyway), so I've got no way to deliver it. but so what, what's one nuke? its a political weapon. where're my targets? as has been mentioned before the vas majority of the major population centers have already been conquered but the Chinese are still in a militant mood. should a nuke a random village out in Sinkiang, would that make the Chinese cower in fear? and I'm in their capital, yes. but the administration safely fled to their secondary capital. historically during the Second Sino-Japanese War, the Japanese occupied the Chinese capital (Nanjing), but lost in the end. as for an invasion force, that's not what the potential worry is about. this is what its about: I have ~30 divisions on the mainland, maybe a bit less. on that same mainland, the Chinese have 290+. there's a slight disparity of forces there. if they make peace with the russians and shift all their divisions over, they'll easily and quickly overwhelm me, forcing a withdrawal back to japan more hair-raising than that from korea, if my forces haven't already been destroyed. their entire army >> my one nuke. as I've said before, this isn't a peace that can be dictated, and when it comes to negotiations there's always compromise. the chinese can just keep saying "no" forever if they wanted, and where would japan be?

General Jac: given that its not their sphere of influence...not sure

rcduggan:

update tomorrow

discomb:

You can withdraw from China at any moment.

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only to a certain extent. If the Chinese plant even single divisions along every province of my long border and push in immediately, the likelihood is that Kuribayashi and Yamashita will probably be cut off, also perhaps Ishiwara as he is was the far inland flank of Yamada’s dash southward. That represents a good 8 divisions, not much less than a third of my entire army.

If the war goes on, it will spill into the east china sea, in which scenario you will win.

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I disagree

They'll continue landing unsuccessfully, and you'll just sink all their ships while building up a large force.

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as I’ve mentioned before, I’ve yet to sink a single Chinese capital ship. If their transports are escorted by Long Yun’s fleet, as they have been in the past, I won’t be able to even scratch them as the flak put up by that many ships would slaughter half my bomber force, its happened before. Besides, the potential force I can build up right now is about 50 divisions if just vanilla infantry divisions—by this same standard, the Chinese can build up a force of by now over 800 divisions; this assumes both states use up their entire supply of manpower in one go (and their daily manpower gain is probably 8x as much as mine!). as iirc you yourself said before, a war of attrition is one thing I cannot win against the Chinese. Now you’d want to dedicate me to just that. Remember, as you yourself said only a couple days ago—you don’t know when to retreat

You have absolutely nothing to fear in terms of dragging the war, except giving back territories you have already pledged to cede.

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except I never got Korea, so the possibility of ‘giving it back’ is quite unlikely

And the nuke very happily anihilates large industrial centers. Build more and cripple their economy, not to mention kill a lot of troops. Where's the catch? I don't understand. Of course it's just a political weapon, but how well can their cabinet flee against a rocket, or even a bomber?

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well, firstly as far as I know its affect on troops is relatively minimal, though I won’t deny the industrial and political ramifications. But I only have one—and my next is due in November or December. I gain them at a rate of 1 every 14 months iirc. What’s two nukes against a nation the size of china? Think historically, after four years of ruinous war against the allies (and eight against the Chinese), not even two nukes convinced some Japanese of the necessity of surrender. Now, given that china has always been victorious in its wars, and the victories I’ve been gaining are really only just barely negating the effects of their own production of extra units (and they’re also building up their navy, not transports but cruisers and such!)—the likelihood of one, two or even three bombs would be relatively minimal, especially if I have to wait a year or 14 months in between each one. They’d notice the delay and simply laugh in my face, knowing that the Bomb is barely a threat. Not to mention that it’d simply give them another reason to land permanently on my shores.

The Chinese army, as I’ve repeatedly mentioned, is still around 290+ divisions—the same amount they started the war with. At times, its been over 300 and of course, this takes into account any attrition against the Russians! And then, of course, there’s always the possibility of the Chinese pulling something magical out and landing six divisions across three different beaches on the home islands and reinforcing them immediately, which has also happened in the past, though to a slighter extent.

Not to mention that even if I could realistically dictate a peace, would that be desirable? Think of Versailles

grayghost: glad I can still surprise my regular audience! Thanks! Besides, its always more satisfying to know more or less how some things came about rather than just being informed that they have

As usual, we awoke at 0700 for breakfast and last minute planning for the coming conferences. As with the previous day, we agreed amongst ourselves that Hirota Koji would be the principle speaker despite dissension from Tanaka Shizuichi. Yamamoto, who had on the 6th hoped for a larger role, assented to Hirota’s dominance as he realized that he had no experience that could possibly compare to Hirota’s expertise. Yamamoto’s methods, after all, consisted largely of threats of resignation and other such blackmail, none of which would work on a delegation only too apathetic to the possibility of us walking out of the negotiations. Thus, half an hour before 0900 we left our compound and headed toward the conference hall.

At more or less exactly 0900 we all sat down and faced our counterparts across the table as Chen Gongbo stood up and again made a short welcoming speech, again hoping for success as we had all left the room yesterday evening having tasted it—perhaps he was being ironic, I could not decide. Sitting down, he offered the floor to Hirota to broach the topic of the day’s negotiations. Accepting this task, Hirota named Southeast Asia as the topic, specifically Siam and Indochina. The Chinese were not only not surprised by this topic but Chen Gongbo and Wang JingWei immediately began their attack, assailing Hirota Koji with requests that their historical claim to Annam be honored. Hirota Koji professed ignorance, I know not whether it was real or feigned, and Wang JingWei explained that Annam had been for a long time a satellite to the various great Chinese dynasties and that it was only proper for it to be returned to its proper place in this regard.

Hirota acted skeptical and asked what region Annam covered, to which Wang JingWei replied that it comprised all of southeast Asia but that, in his own words, ‘Siam is up for debate.’ Hirota rejected this outright, arguing that, whatever might be said about the Japanese successes—or lack thereof—in Korea, their conquest of Southeast Asia could not be denied. He reminded the Chinese delegation that even Li Zongren had not managed to overcome Japanese resistance at Haiphong and that, once he had finally reached the gateway to Indochina, all he had managed was to stumble into a trap that shut behind him and destroyed nearly a score of divisions. To complete his argument, he also added that, even though much of the area had been recovered by Chinese divisions, against no resistance, it only required a short and quick thrust to close the one road connecting China and Indochina and thus seal the face of the ten or so divisions occupied there. He concluded by definitively stating that, though the previous day the Chinese had negotiated from a position of strength, on this day their stand was born of weakness.

Chastened, the Chinese delegation asked what Hirota proposed, who answered that he was willing to partition Southeast Asia, with the greater share going to Japan. This, he maintained, was one of the unmovable tenets of the day’s negotiations—that Japan’s benefits from the territorial gains would outweigh China’s. To our surprise, the Chinese seemed to accept this calmly; they must have anticipated as much. However, before any partitioning could be accomplished, it was time to eat lunch and, for me, to interview another key Chinese general.

On the first day I had spoken with Li Zongren, on the second day Zhang Xueliang. Today, I wished to speak with the final major Chinese general from 1936: Bai Chongxi. I already knew that he had once been the chief of staff and was still the chief of navy staff, was a naval officer as well as the single most gifted Chinese army general. However, what he told me proved that he was far more interesting than he first seemed. He spoke of the uncertainties of the war against the Nationalists, of the surprise of the first few weeks when their forces were seemingly inexplicably absent, and of the worry and shock of Japan’s declaration of war. He then turned to the strategy against Japan and mentioned that the Chinese naval strategy was his brainchild, a true “fleet-in-being” strategy—as I did not understand the full implications of the turn, he explained that a fleet-in-being is one that is always occupying the enemy in some manner or another to prevent their own fleet from functioning effectively. I admitted to him that his strategy certainly worked; in fact, it worked on an absolutely miraculous level.

The hour with Bai Chongxi passed quickly and soon we were back in the conference hall, with all eyes turned toward the central three figures in the negotiations: Hirota Koji, Chen Gongbo and Wang JingWei. Hirota began by explaining that he would honor the Chinese historical claim to Annam, but that it would not be the incredibly bloated version put forth by Wang JingWei that morning; rather, it would consist of simply a strip of land tied to the coast in a region that was generally known as “Vietnam.” This drew immediate protestation from Wang JingWei , who pleaded strategic necessity of protecting Guilin from another southern invasion and stated that Laos was necessary for the security of the capital. On our advice, Hirota called his bluff and allowed us to explain that Vietnam would provide all the buffer zone China would need as, due to the heavy jungle, it would take a considerable amount of time for any invasion force to reach the actual Chinese border anyway, enough time for China to marshal a response. Wang JingWei seemed fit to argue, but Chen Gongbo motioned him to silence and instead asked Hirota Koji what his plans for the rest of Southeast Asia were.

Hirota, back on track, explained that while China would gain Vietnam as a satellite state, he intended to carve the rest of the territory into two client states for Japan: landlocked Laos and a greater Siam, which would comprise Siam itself and the territory it had frequently attempted to lay claim to before its annexation by China, that would otherwise constitute the state of Cambodia. To our surprise, Chen Gongbo agreed easily to this proposal. In his own memoirs he explains that, being the minister of armaments for China, he had long known that the majority of the vast quantities of rare minerals were to be found in Vietnam, more that in the rest of the Southeast Asian states combined and that Siam was only worthwhile for its iron, which China already had in abundance.

Somewhat stunned, Hirota Koji asked Chen Gongbo whether they should begin discussing certain matters reserved for the next day. Chen Gongbo assented, and Hirota quickly shuffled through his papers. He first brought up the subject of Chinese prisoners of war and pledged that they would be released as soon as possible, which pleased the Chinese delegates. However, Hirota warned that in return he expected the Chinese to free the emperor. Chen Gongbo’s answer was disconcerting: he claimed that the emperor had escaped during the chaos of the battle and was liable to still be roaming around Guilin! This was startling news and Hirota asked if us generals would be able to immediately take a plane back to Guilin to begin the search while the official end to the negotiations would occur the next day. Chen Gongbo amiably agreed and soon afterward the conference was over and Yamashita, Okamura and I were simultaneously hastily packing what we had taken along to Chongqing, saying our good-byes to our fellow Japanese as well as to the Chinese delegates before boarding the plane back to Guilin.

canonized: yep! thanks!

Kurt_Steiner: haha well, what better precedent is there save history, though the partition of SE Asia is slightly more ahistorical than that of Korea...

General Jac: let's not be particular now, japan needs everything

update tomorrow!